Robinvale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Robinvale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Robinvale's population is estimated at around 3,516, reflecting an increase of 19 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3,497. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of resident population at 3,487 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of 16 new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 46 persons per square kilometer. Robinvale's growth rate of 0.5% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area at -0.3%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 76.0% of overall population gains. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 adjusted employing weighted aggregation method for areas not covered by this data.

For the period from 2032 to 2041, projections indicate an overall population decline of 50 persons in Robinvale, with specific age cohorts expected to grow led by the 45 to 54 age group projected to increase by 84 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Robinvale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Robinvale has recorded approximately 9 residential properties granted approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 48 homes were approved, with an additional 10 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 0.8 new residents arrive per new home each year over the past five financial years.

This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially driving population growth beyond current expectations. The average value of new dwellings is $677,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, $6.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating limited focus on commercial development compared to residential. Relative to Rest of Vic., Robinvale has 14.0% less building activity per person and ranks among the 59th percentile nationally. However, recent periods show increased development activity, suggesting potential planning constraints or maturity of the area.

New building activity consists of 60.0% detached dwellings and 40.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a growing mix of housing types catering to different price ranges and lifestyle demands. This shift is notable compared to the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses at 89.0%. With around 259 people per dwelling approval, Robinvale exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. Given the expected stable or declining population, pressure on housing in Robinvale may remain relatively low, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Robinvale has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Ten projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. These include the Robinvale Riverfront Masterplan, Robinvale Key Worker Accommodation, Nyah West Skate Park Development, and Robinvale Netball Courts Lighting Project. The following list details those projected to have the most relevance.

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The employment environment in Robinvale shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Robinvale has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, representing diverse sectors. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.2%.

This is lower than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, with 1,777 residents employed. Workforce participation in Robinvale is 53.1%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, administrative & support services, and retail trade. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has a notable concentration with employment levels at 6.1 times the regional average.

Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 5.4% compared to the regional average of 16.8%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Robinvale's labour force decreased by 4.4%, while employment declined by 3.8%, causing a fall in unemployment rate of 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.9% with an increase in unemployment rate of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Robinvale's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 4.0% over five years and 9.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Robinvale had a median taxpayer income of $32,807 and an average income of $42,246. These figures are lower than the national averages of $48,741 and $60,693 respectively in Rest of Vic. Based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $36,796 (median) and $47,383 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Robinvale fall between the 13th and 21st percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 29.7% of Robinvale's community earns between $1,500 and $2,999 annually (1,044 individuals), similar to regional levels where this cohort represents 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 88.5% income retention, total disposable income ranks at the 27th percentile nationally.

Robinvale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The latest Census evaluation showed that Robinvale's dwelling structure comprised 88.9% houses and 11.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 89.7% houses and 10.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Robinvale stood at 32.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.0% and rented ones at 44.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,012, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,083. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $220, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $200. Nationally, Robinvale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Robinvale features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.2% of all households, including 28.7% couples with children, 26.4% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.8%, with lone person households making up 22.8% and group households comprising 9.3%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.3.

Robinvale faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 13.8%, significantly below Victoria's average of 33.4%. This presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 28.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (8.8%) and certificates (20.1%).

Educational participation is high at 31.2%, including primary education (12.5%), secondary education (9.8%), and tertiary education (2.0%). Robinvale College and St Mary's School serve a total of 505 students, with varied educational conditions (ICSEA: 900). Both schools offer integrated K-12 education for academic continuity.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Robinvale has ten active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by eleven different routes that collectively facilitate 110 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents residing an average of 429 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 15 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Robinvale's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Robinvale. The prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups is very low. Approximately 44% of the total population (~1535 people) has private health cover, which is lower than the state average of 46.9%.

Nationally, this figure stands at 55.3%. Asthma and diabetes are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 6.0 and 5.6% of residents respectively. A total of 77.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 64.1% across Rest of Vic.. Robinvale has 15.0% of residents aged 65 and over (527 people), which is lower than the state average of 24.0%. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Robinvale is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Robinvale has a high level of cultural diversity, with 44.7% of its population born overseas and 49.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Robinvale, comprising 54.2% of the population. Buddhism is notably overrepresented, making up 15.3%, compared to the Rest of Vic average of 2.4%. In terms of ancestry, 'Other' is the most represented group, at 25.9%, significantly higher than the regional average of 5.7%.

Australian ancestry is lower than average, at 15.0% (regional average: 31.4%), as is English ancestry, at 14.2% (regional average: 29.7%). Italian, Vietnamese, and Australian Aboriginal groups are notably overrepresented in Robinvale compared to regional averages: Italians comprise 12.1%, Vietnamese 5.1%, and Australians of Aboriginal descent 7.0%.

Robinvale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Robinvale is 36 years, significantly lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 years and slightly younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 25-34 age group comprises 19.0% of Robinvale's population, higher than Rest of Vic., while the 65-74 cohort makes up 9.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 0-4 age group grew from 6.1% to 7.7%, and the 25-34 cohort increased from 17.9% to 19.0%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group decreased from 12.1% to 10.2%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 11.8% to 10.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Robinvale, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 21% (79 people), reaching 463 from 383. Conversely, the 35-44 and 15-24 cohorts are projected to decline in population.