Barham

An assessment of population growth drivers in Barham reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of 1 November 2025, Barham's estimated population is around 1,648. This reflects an increase of 79 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,569 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 1,585 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 23 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3.5 persons per square kilometer. Barham's growth rate of 5.0% since census positions it close to the non-metro area's growth rate of 5.7%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 79.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where necessary. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Barham statistical area (Lv2) is expected to grow by 169 persons by 2041, reflecting a gain of 6.4% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Barham, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Barham has had minimal residential development activity, with an average of 3 dwelling approvals per year over the past five years (19 approvals in total). This low level of development is typical of rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity. It should be noted that due to the small number of approvals, individual projects can significantly impact annual growth and relativity statistics.

Barham has shown significantly less construction activity than the Rest of NSW, with its development pattern well below national averages. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached dwellings, reflecting rural living preferences for space and privacy. The estimated population density is 633 people per dwelling approval, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Barham is projected to add 106 residents by 2041.

Development appears to be keeping pace with projected growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Barham has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified a single project likely impacting the area: Victoria to NSW Interconnector West (VNI West). Key projects include South West Renewable Energy Zone, EnergyConnect, and Regional Housing Fund (Victoria).

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Barham faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Barham's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 5.0% as of September 2025, indicating relative stability over the past year based on AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of that date, 756 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 4.0%, which is 1.2% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Barham was lower at 49.2% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents included agriculture, forestry & fishing, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. The area showed strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share of 3.4 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance had a limited presence at 11.3% compared to the regional figure of 16.9%.

Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census working population vs resident population counts. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment in Barham remained stable at 0.0%, while labour force increased by 0.8%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.5%, labour force contract by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Barham's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 5.4% over five years and 11.7% over ten years, though these are simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Barham is below the national average. The median income is $39,413 and the average income stands at $47,891. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures where the median income is $52,390 and the average income is $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $42,905 (median) and $52,134 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Barham all fall between the 3rd and 8th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that the largest segment comprises 29.0% earning $400 - $799 weekly (477 residents), unlike trends in the broader area where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. The prevalence of lower-income residents (41.5% under $800/week) suggests constrained household budgets across much of the area. While housing costs are modest with 90.1% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 7th percentile nationally.

Barham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Barham, as per the latest Census evaluation, 85.0% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 15.1% being semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's figures of 89.8% houses and 10.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Barham stood at 55.6%, with mortgaged properties at 20.7% and rented ones at 23.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,148, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,285. The median weekly rent in Barham was $185, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $235. Nationally, Barham's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,148 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Barham features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 60.4% of all households, including 15.9% couples with children, 37.1% couples without children, and 6.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 39.6%, with lone person households at 37.4% and group households making up 2.2%. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Barham faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 13.4%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.1%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (26.7%). A total of 21.5% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, comprising 8.0% in primary, 6.3% in secondary, and 2.5% in tertiary education.

A substantial 21.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 8.0% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Barham has 55 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by seven different routes that together offer 72 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average being located 379 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are ten trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Barham is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Barham faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Only approximately 46% (~757 people) have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (13.1%) and mental health issues (8.2%). About 61.0% report no medical ailments, similar to Rest of NSW's 60.6%. Barham has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 38.5% (634 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 30.5%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are strong, even better than the general population in certain metrics.

The latest Census data sees Barham placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Barham's population was found to be predominantly culturally homogeneous, with 92.0% being citizens, 91.9% born in Australia, and 96.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Barham, comprising 57.7% of its population, slightly lower than the 58.1% recorded across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups in Barham were Australian (34.2%), English (33.1%), and Irish (9.8%).

Notably, Sri Lankan, Scottish, and Australian Aboriginal populations showed variations from regional averages: Sri Lankan at 0.4% versus 0.1%, Scottish at 8.7% versus 9.2%, and Australian Aboriginal at 2.5% matching the regional average of 2.5%.

Barham ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Barham's median age is 58, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and Australia's 38 years. The 65-74 age group is strongly represented at 20.1%, compared to Rest of NSW's figure, while the 35-44 cohort is less prevalent at 6.4%. This concentration in the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 6.6% to 8.3%, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 18.5% to 20.1%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 18.1% to 16.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Barham's age profile will evolve significantly. Leading this shift, the 75 to 84 group is projected to grow by 40%, reaching 270 from 192. This growth is primarily due to residents aged 65 and older representing 87% of anticipated growth. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 5 to 14 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.