Swan Hill

Swan Hill is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Swan Hill's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 10,783, showing a decrease of 403 people since the 2021 Census. The population in 2021 was recorded at 11,186. This decline is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 10,750 as of June 2025 and an additional 228 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 85 persons per square kilometer. Swan Hill's population change mirrors that of its SA3 area, with both showing declines within 0.8 percentage points (-3.6% vs -2.8%). Overseas migration primarily drove population growth, contributing approximately 61.3% of overall gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the population is projected to decrease by 743 persons. However, specific age cohorts like the 75 to 84 group are expected to grow, with a projected increase of 95 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Swan Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Swan Hill has received approximately 45 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 226 homes. As of FY-26, 77 approvals have been recorded. The population decline during this period has maintained adequate housing supply relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average cost of $303,000.

In the current financial year, commercial approvals amount to $20.7 million, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Swan Hill has slightly higher development activity, with 26.0% more approvals per person over the past five years. This maintains good buyer choice and supports existing property values.

However, development activity has moderated in recent periods. Recent construction comprises 71.0% standalone homes and 29.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low-density nature with a focus on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 427 people, reflecting its quiet, low-activity development environment. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Swan Hill should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Swan Hill has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 36thth percentile nationally

Eleven projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area, with key ones including Swan Hill Tourism and Cultural Hub, Heirloom Estate, Transforming the Heart of Swan Hill Precinct, and Swan Hill Bridge Replacement.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Swan Hill places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Swan Hill's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.3% as of December 2025. This rate is 2.4% lower than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation was 64.8%, slightly higher than Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. Census responses showed that 6.9% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries for employment include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Swan Hill has a particular specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

However, public administration & safety is under-represented, at 5.1% compared to Regional Vic.'s 6.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data comparing working population to local population. In the 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 0.1%, while labour force decreased by 2.1%, leading to a 2.2 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Swan Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Swan Hill SA2's income level is lower than average nationally, according to AreaSearch aggregated ATO data for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Swan Hill SA2 was $50,285, with an average income of $60,839. This compares to Regional Vic.'s figures of $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Swan Hill SA2 would be approximately $55,122 (median) and $66,692 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Swan Hill rank modestly between the 28th and 39th percentiles. The earnings profile indicates that 32.9% of locals (3,547 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, similar to metropolitan regions where 30.3% occupy this category. Housing costs are manageable with 87.8% retained, but disposable income sits below average at the 32nd percentile.

Swan Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Swan Hill, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.1% houses and 16.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Swan Hill was at 36.2%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (31.1%) or rented (32.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,300, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430, and the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $235, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Swan Hill's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Swan Hill features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.0% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 34.0%, with lone person households at 30.6% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Swan Hill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them. Advanced diplomas account for 10.3% and certificates for 26.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Swan Hill shows that there are 56 active transport stops currently operating. These include a mix of train and bus services. The total number of routes servicing these stops is 16, providing 367 weekly passenger trips collectively. The accessibility of transport in the area is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 233 meters from their nearest transport stop. As it is primarily a residential area, most commuting in Swan Hill is outward-bound. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation for residents, at 92%, while walking accounts for 6%.

On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling in the area. According to the 2021 Census, only 6.9% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 52 trips per day, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Swan Hill is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Swan Hill faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~5,305 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 9.7% and 9.7% of residents respectively. 65.5% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 20.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,224 people), lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic., with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Swan Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Swan Hill's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.1% of its population being citizens, 85.9% born in Australia, and 86.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Swan Hill, comprising 50.6% of people. The most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, making up 1.9% compared to Regional Vic's 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (30.2%), English (29.2%), and Irish (9.3%) were the top three groups represented. Italian (4.7%) and Vietnamese (1.0%) were notably overrepresented in Swan Hill compared to regional averages of 2.9% and 0.2%, respectively. Additionally, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 2.9% compared to Regional Vic's 1.4%.

Swan Hill's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Swan Hill is 38, which is lower than Regional Vic's figure of 43 but matches the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 15.7% of Swan Hill's population, higher than Regional Vic's percentage, while the 65-74 cohort comprises 9.6%. According to the 2021 Census, the 25-34 age group increased from 14.7% to 15.7%, and the 45-54 cohort decreased from 10.1% to 9.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates Swan Hill's age profile will change significantly. The 45-54 group is projected to grow by 11% (110 people), reaching 1,114 from 1,003. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 58% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 25-34 age groups are expected to experience population declines.