Swan Hill
Statistical Area - sa2

Swan Hill is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Swan Hill's population is approximately 10,921 as of August 2025. This represents a decrease of 265 people, or 2.4%, since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 11,186. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 10,862 in June 2024 and an additional 80 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 86 persons per square kilometer, offering significant space per person and potential room for further development. Swan Hill's population decline of 2.4% since the census is within 0.9 percentage points of the SA3 area's decline of 1.5%, suggesting similar population challenges across the region. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth in the area, contributing approximately 71.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the area's population is expected to decline by 783 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow, notably the 75 to 84 age group which is projected to expand by 85 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Swan Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Swan Hill received approximately 45 dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis. From FY21 to FY25, Swan Hill had a total of 226 dwelling approvals. As of FY26, there have been 16 approvals so far.

Despite population decline, the area's development activity has been adequate relative to its size, benefiting buyers while maintaining existing property values. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $543,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. This financial year, Swan Hill has registered $20.7 million in commercial approvals, indicating steady commercial investment activity.

Compared to the rest of Victoria, Swan Hill has had 25.0% more development per person over the past five years, supporting buyer choice and existing property values, although development activity has moderated recently. New developments consist of 71.0% detached dwellings and 29.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature while attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 427 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. With stable or declining population forecasts, Swan Hill may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Swan Hill has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 18thth percentile nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified 11 projects potentially impacting the area. Notable projects include Swan Hill Tourism and Cultural Hub, Heirloom Estate, Swan Hill Regional Art Gallery Redevelopment, and Transforming the Heart of Swan Hill Precinct.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch assessment positions Swan Hill ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Swan Hill has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, well-represented essential services sectors, and an unemployment rate of 2.3% as of June 2025. In this month, 5,504 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.5% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation stood at 59.8%, slightly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area has a particularly strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. However, public administration & safety has limited presence, with only 5.1% of jobs compared to the regional average of 6.5%.

Many residents appear to commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Swan Hill's labour force decreased by 4.1%, employment decreased by 3.4%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.9% and an increase in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. State-level data up to Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Swan Hill's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.0%% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Swan Hill's median income among taxpayers, based on AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022, was $47,926. The average income in Swan Hill during this period was $57,197. Both figures are below the national averages. Rest of Vic.'s median income was $48,741 and average income was $60,693 during the same period. Using Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year ending June 2022, estimated median income for Swan Hill as of March 2025 would be approximately $52,771 and average income would be around $62,980. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, incomes in Swan Hill rank modestly, between the 28th and 39th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. In terms of income distribution, 32.9% of locals (3,593 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 30.3% similarly occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 87.8% retained, but disposable income sits below average at the 33rd percentile.

Swan Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Swan Hill, as per the latest Census evaluation, 83.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 16.9% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro Vic., where 90.7% of dwellings were houses and 9.2% were other types. Home ownership in Swan Hill stood at 36.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.1% and rented ones at 32.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, exceeding Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,083. Weekly rent in Swan Hill was recorded at $235, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $200. Nationally, Swan Hill's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Swan Hill features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 66.0% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 34.0%, with lone person households at 30.6% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, aligning with the Rest of Vic. average.

Educational outcomes in Swan Hill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 36.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.3% and certificates at 26.5%. Educational participation is high at 27.5%, including 10.7% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Swan Hill has a robust network of 10 schools educating approximately 2,710 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 969) and balanced educational opportunities. The schools include 4 primary, 4 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools. Swan Hill functions as an education hub with 24.8 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 14.7, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Swan Hill shows that there are currently 56 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services. The total number of routes servicing these stops is 26.

Together, they facilitate 423 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Swan Hill is considered good, with residents on average located 233 meters from their nearest transport stop. Across all routes, the service frequency averages 60 trips per day, which translates to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Swan Hill is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Swan Hill faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 48% of the total population (~5,274 people), lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 9.7% and 9.7% of residents respectively. A total of 65.5% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Rest of Vic. figure of 64.1%. The area has 20.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,250 people), lower than the 24.0% in Rest of Vic..

Swan Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Swan Hill's cultural diversity was found to be below average. The population comprised 85.1% citizens, 85.9% born in Australia, and 86.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 50.6% of people identifying as such.

Notably, the 'Other' category comprised 1.9%, compared to 0.8% across Victoria. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (30.2%), English (29.2%), and Irish (9.3%). Italian (4.7%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 4.0%. Vietnamese (1.0%) and Australian Aboriginal (2.9%) also showed notable divergences from their respective regional averages of 0.7% and 2.5%.

Swan Hill's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Swan Hill has a median age of 38, which is lower than the Rest of Vic figure of 43 but matches the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group constitutes 15.8% of Swan Hill's population, higher than Rest of Vic., while the 65-74 cohort makes up 9.7%. According to the 2021 Census, the 25-34 age group has increased from 14.7% to 15.8%, and the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 10.1% to 9.2%. Demographic projections indicate significant changes in Swan Hill's age profile by 2041. The 75-84 group is expected to grow by 11% (86 people), reaching 879 from 792. Those aged 65 and above are projected to account for 57% of the population growth, with declines anticipated in the 0-4 and 25-34 age groups.