Swan Hill

Swan Hill is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Swan Hill's population is around 11,253 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 67 people (0.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,186 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,839 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 229 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 88 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Swan Hill's 0.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (0.2%), though growth remains modest. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 71.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to contract by 783 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to expand by 85 people. See the age section for more details.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Swan Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Swan Hill has experienced around 45 dwellings receiving development approval annually, totalling 226 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 57 approvals have been recorded. Given population has fallen over the past period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $303,000. There have also been $20.7 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to the rest of Victoria, Swan Hill has slightly more development (25.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values, though development activity has moderated in recent periods. Recent construction comprises 71.0% standalone homes and 29.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 427 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, Swan Hill should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Swan Hill has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 34thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 11 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Swan Hill Tourism and Cultural Hub, Heirloom Estate, Transforming the Heart of Swan Hill Precinct, and the Swan Hill Bridge Replacement, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The exceptional employment performance in Swan Hill places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Swan Hill has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of just 1.3%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 5,517 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.4% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (64.3% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%). Based on Census responses, a low 6.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area has particular employment specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. On the other hand, public administration & safety is under-represented, with only 5.1% of Swan Hill's workforce compared to 6.5% in Regional Vic.. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 0.1% alongside labour force decreasing by 2.1%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 2.2 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. experienced employment decline of 0.6% and labour force decline of 0.7%, with a 0.1 percentage point drop. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Swan Hill. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Swan Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Swan Hill SA2's income level is lower than the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Swan Hill SA2's median income among taxpayers is $50,285 and the average income stands at $60,839, compared to Regional Vic.'s figures of $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $54,434 (median) and $65,858 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Swan Hill, between the 28th and 39th percentiles. The earnings profile shows the predominant cohort spans 32.9% of locals (3,702 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, mirroring the metropolitan region where 30.3% occupy this bracket. Housing costs are manageable with 87.8% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 32nd percentile.

Swan Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Swan Hill, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 83.1% houses and 16.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Swan Hill lagged that of Regional Vic. at 36.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (31.1%) or rented (32.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Regional Vic. average at $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $235, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Swan Hill's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Swan Hill features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 66.0% of all households, comprising 25.0% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 34.0%, with lone person households at 30.6% and group households comprising 3.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Swan Hill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (16.4%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 36.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (26.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 56 active transport stops operating within Swan Hill, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 16 individual routes, collectively providing 367 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 233 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 92%, with 6% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A relatively low 6.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 52 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Swan Hill is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Swan Hill, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~5,536 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 9.7% and 9.7% of residents, respectively, while 65.5% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 20.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,314 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic., with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Swan Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Swan Hill was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 85.1% of its population being citizens, 85.9% born in Australia, and 86.8% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Swan Hill is Christianity, which makes up 50.6% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 1.9% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Swan Hill are Australian, comprising 30.2% of the population, English, comprising 29.2% of the population, and Irish, comprising 9.3% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Italian is notably overrepresented at 4.7% of Swan Hill (vs 2.9% regionally), Vietnamese at 1.0% (vs 0.2%), and Australian Aboriginal at 2.9% (vs 1.4%).

Swan Hill's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The 37-year median age in Swan Hill is considerably lower than Regional Vic.'s average of 43 as well as very close to the 38-year national average. The age profile shows 25 - 34 year-olds are particularly prominent (16.2%), while the 65 - 74 group is comparatively smaller (9.7%) than in Regional Vic.. In the period since 2021, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 14.7% to 16.2% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 12.0% to 13.0%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 10.1% to 9.0%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Swan Hill's age structure. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to increase solidly, expanding by 69 people (7%) from 1,017 to 1,087. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 61% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. On the other hand, the 35 to 44 and 0 to 4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.