Swan Hill

Swan Hill is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Swan Hill's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 11,253. This figure represents an increase of 67 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 11,186. The growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 10,867 in June 2024 and an additional 222 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 88 persons per square kilometer. Swan Hill's 0.6% growth rate since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA3 area (-0.3%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 71.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the area's population is expected to decline by 783 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts like the 75 to 84-year-old group are projected to grow, with an increase of 85 people anticipated in this cohort.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Swan Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Swan Hill has received approximately 45 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 226 homes. As of FY-26, 39 approvals have been recorded. Despite a population decline during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $303,000.

This financial year has seen $20.7 million in commercial approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Swan Hill has slightly more development activity, with 25.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values.

However, development activity has moderated in recent periods. Recent construction comprises 71.0% standalone homes and 29.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 427 people, reflecting its quiet, low-activity development environment. With a stable or declining population expected in the future, Swan Hill should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Swan Hill has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 22ndth percentile nationally

Eleven projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area, with key ones including Swan Hill Tourism and Cultural Hub, Heirloom Estate, Transforming the Heart of Swan Hill Precinct, and Swan Hill Bridge Replacement.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Swan Hill well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Swan Hill's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs with prominent essential services sectors. As of September 2025, its unemployment rate was 1.7%.

In that month, 5,479 residents were employed at a rate 2.1% lower than the Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%, with workforce participation at 59.8%, close to the regional average of 57.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area has a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. However, public administration & safety has limited presence at 5.1% compared to the regional 6.5%.

Resident commuting for work suggests local job opportunities exist alongside external employment options. Between September 2024 and 2025, Swan Hill's labour force decreased by 4.3%, with employment down by 2.7%, leading to a 1.7 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of Vic. had an employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%, with marginal unemployment increase. Statewide, VIC's employment grew year-on-year by 1.13% (41,950 jobs) to November 25, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%, and employment growth outpaced the national average of 0.14%. Jobs and Skills Australia's May-25 forecasts project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Swan Hill's employment mix suggests local growth could be 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Swan Hill SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $47,926 and an average of $57,197. These figures are below the national average. Rest of Vic.'s median was $48,741 with an average of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Swan Hill SA2 would be approximately $53,754 (median) and $64,152 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census ranked household, family and personal incomes in Swan Hill modestly, between the 28th and 39th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 32.9% of locals (3,702 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to regional levels where 30.3% occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 87.8% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 32nd percentile.

Swan Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Swan Hill, as per the latest Census evaluation, 83.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 16.9% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro Vic., where 90.7% of dwellings were houses and 9.2% were other types. Home ownership in Swan Hill stood at 36.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.1% and rented ones at 32.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,300, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,083. The median weekly rent figure for Swan Hill was $235, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $200. Nationally, Swan Hill's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,300 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Swan Hill features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 66.0% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 34.0%, with lone person households at 30.6% and group households making up 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, aligning with the Rest of Vic. average.

Educational outcomes in Swan Hill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (26.5%). Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (10.7%), secondary education (7.5%), and tertiary education (2.4%).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Swan Hill has 56 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 26 different routes, collectively facilitating 423 weekly passenger trips. The town's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents on average located 233 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 60 trips per day, equating to about 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Swan Hill is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Swan Hill faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population, which consists of around 5,435 people.

This figure is lower than the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 9.7% and 9.7% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 65.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 64.1% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 20.6% of residents aged 65 and over, totaling approximately 2,319 people, which is lower than the 24.0% in Rest of Vic..

Swan Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Swan Hill showed lower cultural diversity with 85.1% citizens, 85.9% born in Australia, and 86.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the prevalent religion, comprising 50.6%. The 'Other' religious category was overrepresented at 1.9%, compared to 0.8% regionally.

Top ancestry groups were Australian (30.2%), English (29.2%), and Irish (9.3%). Italians were notably overrepresented at 4.7% versus regional 4.0%, Vietnamese at 1.0% versus 0.7%, and Australian Aboriginal at 2.9% versus 2.5%.

Swan Hill's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Swan Hill has a median age of 38, which is lower than the Rest of Vic figure of 43 but equivalent to the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group is strongly represented at 15.8%, compared to Rest of Vic., while the 65-74 cohort is less prevalent at 9.7%. According to the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 14.7% to 15.8% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 10.1% to 9.2%. Demographic modeling suggests Swan Hill's age profile will significantly change by 2041. Leading this shift, the 75 to 84 group is projected to grow by 8%, reaching 879 from 816. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising 70% of projected growth. Meanwhile, the 35 to 44 and 0 to 4 age groups are expected to experience population declines.