Swan Hill

Swan Hill is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Swan Hill's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 11,253, marking an increase of 67 people since the 2021 Census. This growth equates to a 0.6% rise from the census figure of 11,186. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,839 in June 2024 and an additional 229 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 88 persons per square kilometer. Swan Hill's growth exceeded that of its SA3 area (0.2%) but remained modest overall. Overseas migration contributed approximately 71.3% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the population is projected to decline by 783 persons. However, specific age cohorts like those aged 75 to 84 are expected to grow, with a projected increase of 85 people in this group.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Swan Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Swan Hill has received approximately 45 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 226 homes. As of FY-26, 45 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average cost of $303,000.

In FY-26, there have been $20.7 million in commercial approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Swan Hill has slightly more development activity (25.0% above regional average per person over the five-year period), maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. Recent construction comprises 71.0% standalone homes and 29.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated population density is approximately 427 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low-activity development environment. With a stable or declining population expected in the future, Swan Hill should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Swan Hill has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 34thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects that may impact the area. Key projects include Swan Hill Tourism and Cultural Hub, Heirloom Estate, Transforming the Heart of Swan Hill Precinct, and Swan Hill Bridge Replacement. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Swan Hill well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Swan Hill's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate in September 2025 was 1.7%. There were 5,479 residents employed at this time, with an unemployment rate of 2.1% lower than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation was 64.1%, comparable to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. According to Census responses, only 6.9% of residents worked from home. Key industries for employment were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area had a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Public administration & safety had limited presence, with 5.1% employment compared to 6.5% regionally. Many residents commuted elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force decreased by 4.3%, employment decreased by 2.7%, leading to a 1.7 percentage point fall in unemployment rate. By comparison, Rest of Vic. had an employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%, with a marginal rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Swan Hill. Over five years, national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6%, and over ten years by 13.7%. Applying these projections to Swan Hill's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Swan Hill SA2's median income among taxpayers is $50,285. The average income is $60,839. This is below the national average. Rest of Vic.'s median income is $50,954 with an average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Swan Hill's median and average incomes are approximately $54,434 and $65,858 respectively as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Swan Hill rank modestly, between the 28th and 39th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 32.9% of locals (3,702 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to regional levels where 30.3% fall within this range. Housing costs are manageable with 87.8% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 32nd percentile.

Swan Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Swan Hill's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 83.1% houses and 16.9% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic had 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Swan Hill stood at 36.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.1% and rented ones at 32.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro Vic's average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Swan Hill was $235, compared to Non-Metro Vic's $285. Nationally, Swan Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Swan Hill features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.0% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 34.0%, with lone person households at 30.6% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Swan Hill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (26.5%). Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.7% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Swan Hill shows that there are currently 56 operational transport stops serving a mix of train and bus services. These stops are supported by 16 distinct routes, collectively facilitating 367 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as good, with residents typically residing within 233 meters from their nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most commuting occurs outward, with the car remaining the dominant mode of transportation at 92%, while walking accounts for 6%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census data (which may reflect COVID-19 conditions), only 6.9% of residents work from home.

The service frequency across all routes averages 52 trips per day, which equates to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Swan Hill is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Swan Hill faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable among both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover stands at approximately 49%, lower than the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (9.7%) and asthma (9.7%). About 65.5% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Rest of Vic.. Working-age residents have a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions. As of the assessment date, Swan Hill has 20.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,314 people), lower than Rest of Vic.'s 23.9%, but still higher than national rankings for this age group.

Swan Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Swan Hill's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.1% of its population being citizens, 85.9% born in Australia, and 86.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Swan Hill, comprising 50.6% of people. The most notable overrepresentation was in Other religions, which comprises 1.9% of the population compared to 0.8% across Rest of Vic..

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups in Swan Hill are Australian (30.2%), English (29.2%), and Irish (9.3%). Notably, Italian is overrepresented at 4.7% (vs regional 2.9%), Vietnamese at 1.0% (vs 0.2%), and Australian Aboriginal at 2.9% (vs 1.4%).

Swan Hill's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Swan Hill is 37 years, which is lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 years are prominent at 16.2%, while those aged 65-74 years are smaller at 9.7% compared to Rest of Vic.. From 2021 to present, the 25-34 age group has grown from 14.7% to 16.2%, and the 35-44 cohort has increased from 12.0% to 13.0%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 10.1% to 9.0%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Swan Hill's age structure. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to increase by 69 people (7%), from 1,017 to 1,087. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 61% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 35-44 and 0-4 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.