St Arnaud

An assessment of population growth drivers in St Arnaud reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, St Arnaud's population is estimated at around 2,271, reflecting a decrease of 47 people since the 2021 Census. The ABS ERP estimate for Jun 2024 placed the resident population at 2,269, with AreaSearch validating three new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 32 persons per square kilometer. St Arnaud's -2.0% decline is within 1.8 percentage points of the SA3 area (-0.2%). Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is expected to grow by 297 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 13.2% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in St Arnaud is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

St Arnaud has had minimal residential development activity with two dwelling approvals annually over the past five years. This totals ten approvals in that period. The low development levels reflect St Arnaud's rural nature, where housing needs drive development rather than broad market demand.

The small sample size means individual projects can significantly influence annual growth statistics. Compared to Rest of Vic., St Arnaud has much lower development activity, and this is also true when compared to national patterns. Recent development in the area has been entirely detached dwellings, focusing on family homes suited for rural living and space. There are an estimated 2288 people per dwelling approval in St Arnaud, indicating its quiet, low-activity development environment.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, St Arnaud is expected to grow by 301 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

St Arnaud has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified zero projects anticipated to impact this region. Key initiatives include Melbourne-Adelaide freight rail upgrades, Ararat-Maryborough line improvements (Murray Basin Rail Project), Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), and Victorian Renewable Energy Zones.

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The employment landscape in St Arnaud presents a mixed picture: unemployment remains low at 3.6%, yet recent job losses have affected its comparative national standing

St Arnaud has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.6%, as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation (June 2025).

There are 1,008 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.2% lower than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation in St Arnaud lags at 47.8%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade. The area specializes in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction has a limited presence at 5.2%, compared to the regional average of 10.4%. Labour force decreased by 4.4% over a 12-month period (Sep-22), along with employment decreasing by 3.5%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment fall by 0.9%, labour force contract by 0.4%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts (Sep-22) project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to St Arnaud's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in St Arnaud is below the national average. The median assessed income is $40,429 while the average income stands at $48,282. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s figures where the median income is $48,741 and the average income is $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $45,345 (median) and $54,153 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in St Arnaud all fall between the 1st and 7th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that 35.5% of the population (806 individuals) fall within the $400 - 799 income range, unlike trends in the metropolitan region where 30.3% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. The prevalence of lower-income residents (45.0% under $800/week) indicates constrained household budgets across much of the district. While housing costs are modest with 89.5% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 4th percentile nationally.

St Arnaud is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In St Arnaud, as per the latest Census evaluation, 94.4% of dwellings were houses, with 5.6% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, or 'other' dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro Vic., which had 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in St Arnaud stood at 50.6%, similar to Non-Metro Vic.'s level. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (28.6%) or rented (20.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $867, below the Non-Metro Vic. average of $1,043 and significantly lower than the national average of $1,863 recorded in June 2021. The median weekly rent figure in St Arnaud was $188, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $215 and substantially below the national figure of $375 as of that same date.

St Arnaud features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 55.3% of all households, including 17.6% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 44.7%, with lone person households at 42.5% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

St Arnaud faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.1%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (28.6%). A total of 23.5% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, comprising 9.2% in primary, 6.9% in secondary, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

St Arnaud's three schools have a combined enrollment of 370 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 974) with balanced educational opportunities. The area has two primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

St Arnaud has three active public transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling eight different routes that offer 38 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as limited, with residents on average located 705 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are five trips per day across all routes, which equals approximately twelve weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in St Arnaud is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

St Arnaud faces significant health challenges affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 46% (~1045 people) have private health cover, lower than the Victorian average of 48.8%. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.4%) and mental health issues (10.1%). Conversely, 56% report being free from medical ailments compared to 61.2% in the rest of Victoria. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 32.1% (728 people), compared to 25.2% in the rest of Victoria. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges, despite performing better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees St Arnaud placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Arnaud's population showed low cultural diversity, with 90.7% being citizens, 93.1% born in Australia, and 97.3% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion was Christianity, practiced by 58.3%, compared to 51.6% regionally. Top ancestral groups were English (34.4%), Australian (33.5%), and Scottish (9.8%).

Hungarian (0.3%) and Maltese (0.3%) were slightly overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, while Irish was notably higher at 9.6% versus 8.1%.

St Arnaud ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in St Arnaud is 52 years, which is significantly higher than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 years and also well above the national norm of 38 years. The 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in St Arnaud at 11.3%, compared to the Rest of Vic. average, while the 5-14 year-olds are under-represented at 8.8%. This concentration of the 75-84 cohort is well above the national figure of 6.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 7.7% to 9.6% of the population, while the 45-54 cohort has declined from 12.4% to 10.7%. Population forecasts for St Arnaud in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 35%, adding 86 residents to reach a total of 329. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 65-74 cohorts.