St Arnaud

An assessment of population growth drivers in St Arnaud reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of St Arnaud is around 2,234, a decrease of 84 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 2,318. This decline reflects an examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and validation of four new addresses since the Census date. The current population density is 32 persons per square kilometer. St Arnaud's population change mirrors that of its SA3 area, with a decrease of 3.6% compared to the SA3's -1.6%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains in recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 for areas not covered by this data.

Applying these projections, the suburb is expected to increase its population by 267 persons to 2041, reflecting an 11.9% gain over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in St Arnaud is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

St Arnaud has had minimal residential development activity with an average of two dwelling approvals per year over the past five years (a total of 12 approvals). This low level of development reflects the rural nature of the area, where housing development is typically driven by specific local needs rather than broader market demand. It should be noted that due to the small number of approvals, individual projects can significantly impact annual growth and relative statistics.

St Arnaud has much lower development activity compared to other Victorian regions, with its development pattern also well below national averages. Recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, aligning with rural living preferences for space and privacy. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1510 people, reflecting the area's quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, St Arnaud is expected to grow by 267 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

St Arnaud has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No infrastructure changes can significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified zero projects likely to impact this region. Key initiatives include Melbourne-Adelaide freight rail improvements, Ararat-Maryborough line upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), Regional Housing Fund, and Victorian Renewable Energy Zones. Relevant details are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals St Arnaud significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

St Arnaud has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.0% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 0.9%.

As of December 2025999 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.7%, lower than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation was 52.7%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. Only 4.1% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade.

The area has a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level. Construction has limited presence, with 5.2% employment compared to 10.4% regionally. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.9%, while labour force decreased by 2.8%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 3.6 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with a drop in unemployment rate of 0.1 percentage point. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within St Arnaud. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to St Arnaud's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in St Arnaud is $40,429, with an average of $48,282, according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is lower than the national average, contrasting with Regional Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since the financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $44,318 (median) and $52,927 (average) as of March 2026. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in St Arnaud all fall between the 1st and 7th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 35.5% of residents (793 people) fall into the $400 - 799 income bracket, diverging from the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.3%. The prevalence of lower-income residents indicates constrained household budgets across much of the area. While housing costs are modest with 89.5% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 4th percentile nationally.

St Arnaud is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

St Arnaud's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.4% houses and 5.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in St Arnaud stood at 50.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.6% and rented ones at 20.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $867, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent was recorded at $188, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, St Arnaud's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

St Arnaud features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 55.3% of all households, including 17.6% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 44.7%, with lone person households at 42.5% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 2.0 people, smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

St Arnaud faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.4%, significantly lower than the Victorian average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.1%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.2%). Vocational credentials are held by 37.7% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.1% and certificates at 28.6%. A total of 23.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 9.2% in primary, 6.9% in secondary, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

A substantial 23.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

St Arnaud has three active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are serviced by three individual routes that collectively provide 23 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 705 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to St Arnaud's primarily residential nature. The car remains the dominant mode of transport at 87%, while 10% walk. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, only 4.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages three trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately seven weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in St Arnaud is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

St Arnaud faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notably high across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low, at approximately 46% of the total population (around 1,028 people), compared to 50.5% in Regional Victoria and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.4% of residents) and mental health issues (impacting 10.1%). Conversely, 56.0% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Victoria. Working-age population health is particularly challenging due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors, with 33.2% of residents aged 65 and over (741 people), compared to 23.9% in Regional Victoria. Health outcomes among seniors present additional challenges, ranking even higher than the general population nationally.

The latest Census data sees St Arnaud placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Arnaud, as per the 2016 Census, showed lower cultural diversity with 90.7% of its population being Australian citizens, 93.1% born in Australia, and 97.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 58.3%, compared to 47.3% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were English (34.4%), Australian (33.5%), and Scottish (9.8%).

Notably, Hungarian (0.3%) and Maltese (0.3%) were slightly overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively. Irish ancestry was marginally underrepresented at 9.6% versus the regional average of 9.7%.

St Arnaud ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

St Arnaud's median age is 51 years, which is significantly higher than Regional Vic.'s average of 43 and considerably older than Australia's median of 38. Compared to Regional Vic., the 75-84 cohort is notably over-represented at 12.1% locally, while the 35-44 age group is under-represented at 9.7%. This 75-84 concentration is well above the national average of 6.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 7.7% to 9.7%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.4% to 10.2%. By 2041, St Arnaud is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 45 to 54 group is projected to grow by 38% (87 people), reaching 315 from 227. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 cohorts.