St Arnaud

An assessment of population growth drivers in St Arnaud reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, the estimated population of St Arnaud as of Feb 2026 is around 2,258. This shows a decrease of 60 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,318. The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's resident population figure of 2,253 from Jun 2024 ERP data and four additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 32 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, they use VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projected demographic shifts indicate a population increase just below the median of Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with St Arnaud expected to gain 303 persons by 2041, reflecting a total growth of 14.1% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in St Arnaud is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

St Arnaud had minimal residential development activity with 2 dwelling approvals annually on average between 2016 and 2020 (a total of 11 approvals). This low level of development reflects the rural nature of the area, where housing needs rather than broad market demand typically drive development. Due to the small number of approvals, individual projects can significantly impact annual growth statistics.

St Arnaud has much lower development activity compared to the rest of Victoria and is well below national averages. Recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, aligning with rural living preferences for space and privacy. The estimated population per dwelling approval in St Arnaud is 2288 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, St Arnaud is expected to grow by 319 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

St Arnaud has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No changes can significantly affect an area's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 0 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements, Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), and Victorian Renewable Energy Zones. The following list outlines those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates St Arnaud maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

St Arnaud has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented. The unemployment rate is 2.5%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 1,008 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.2% below the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in St Arnaud is 53.6%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. Census responses show that only 4.1% of residents work from home, but Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing has notably high employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average. Construction employs only 5.2% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 10.4%. The area may have limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force decreased by 4.7%, while employment declined by 1.9%, resulting in a fall in unemployment rate by 2.7 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of Vic. had an employment decline of 0.7% and a labour force decline of 0.6%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to St Arnaud's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows St Arnaud's median income among taxpayers is $40,429, with an average of $48,282. This is lower than the national average, compared to Rest of Vic.'s median of $50,954 and average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $43,764 (median) and $52,265 (average). Census 2021 data shows St Arnaud's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 1st and 7th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort in St Arnaud spans 35.5% of locals (801 people) with incomes between $400 - $799 per week, unlike regional trends where 30.3% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. This indicates a prevalence of lower-income residents, with 45.0% earning under $800/week, suggesting constrained household budgets across much of the district. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 89.5% income retention, total disposable income ranks at just the 4th percentile nationally.

St Arnaud is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

St Arnaud's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.4% houses and 5.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in St Arnaud stood at 50.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.6% and rented dwellings at 20.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $867, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in St Arnaud was $188, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, St Arnaud's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

St Arnaud features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 55.3% of all households, including 17.6% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 44.7%, with lone person households at 42.5% and group households making up 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

St Arnaud faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.1%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (28.6%). A total of 23.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, with 9.2% in primary, 6.9% in secondary, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

A substantial 23.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

St Arnaud has three active public transport stops currently operating. These are served by three distinct routes, collectively offering 23 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility in the area is considered limited, with residents typically residing 705 meters from their nearest stop. In this primarily residential zone, most commuters travel outward; cars remain the dominant mode of transportation at 87%, while 10% walk. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, only 4.1% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages three trips daily across all routes, resulting in approximately seven weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in St Arnaud is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

St Arnaud faces significant health challenges, as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~1,039 people), compared to 50.5% in Rest of Vic., and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (12.4%) and mental health issues (10.1%), while 56.0% report no medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Rest of Vic. Working-age residents face notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. St Arnaud has 31.7% of residents aged 65 and over (715 people), higher than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, ranking even higher than the general population nationally.

The latest Census data sees St Arnaud placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Arnaud's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 90.7% of its population being citizens, 93.1% born in Australia, and 97.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in St Arnaud, comprising 58.3% of people, compared to 47.3% across Rest of Vic. The top three ancestry groups are English (34.4%), Australian (33.5%), and Scottish (9.8%).

Notably, Hungarian ethnicity is overrepresented at 0.3% in St Arnaud versus the regional average of 0.2%. Irish ethnicity stands at 9.6%, slightly lower than the regional average of 9.7%, while Maltese ethnicity is also overrepresented at 0.3% compared to the regional average of 0.5%.

St Arnaud ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

St Arnaud's median age is 51 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of Vic average of 43 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Rest of Vic average, the 75-84 cohort is notably over-represented at 11.4% locally, while the 5-14 year-olds are under-represented at 9.0%. This 75-84 concentration is well above the national average of 6.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 7.7% to 9.8% of the population, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.4% to 10.2%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 14.3% to 13.1%. By 2041, St Arnaud is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition, with the 45 to 54 group projected to grow by 44% (100 people), reaching 331 from 230. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 cohorts.