St Arnaud

An assessment of population growth drivers in St Arnaud reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the St Arnaud statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 2,258 as of Nov 2025. This reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census figure of 2,318 people, marking a drop of 60 individuals or approximately 2.6%. The current population estimate is based on AreaSearch's analysis of resident population data from June 2024 ABS ERP release and validation of three new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 32 persons per square kilometer, indicating ample space per person. Overseas migration contributed significantly to recent population growth, accounting for approximately 89% of overall gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered SA2 areas and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 for areas not covered by ABS data, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas until 2041. Based on these aggregated projections, the St Arnaud (SA2) is expected to grow by approximately 296 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of about 13.9% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in St Arnaud is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

St Arnaud has had minimal residential development activity with 2 dwelling approvals annually over the past five years, totalling 11. This low level of development reflects the rural nature of the area, where housing needs typically drive development rather than broad market demand. The small sample size means individual projects can significantly influence annual growth statistics.

St Arnaud has much lower development activity compared to Rest of Vic and nationally. Recent development has been entirely detached dwellings, focusing on family homes suited for rural lifestyle seekers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 2288 people, indicating its quiet, low-activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, St Arnaud is expected to grow by 313 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

St Arnaud has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area. Key projects include Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements, Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), and Victorian Renewable Energy Zones.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates St Arnaud maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

St Arnaud has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 2.5%, as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of September 2025, 1,008 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.2% below the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is lower at 47.8%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key employment sectors in St Arnaud are health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade. The area has a significant specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction's presence is limited at 5.2%, compared to the regional average of 10.4%. In the year ending September 2025, St Arnaud's labour force decreased by 4.6% and employment fell by 1.9%, leading to a 2.7 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment fell by 0.7% and labour force contracted by 0.6%. State-wide, Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year (adding 41,950 jobs) to November 2025, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia projects national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections suggest St Arnaud's employment could increase by 5.8% in five years and 12.8% in ten years, assuming population remains stable.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in St Arnaud is below the national average. The median income is $40,429 and the average income stands at $48,282. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s figures where the median income is $50,954 and the average income is $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for St Arnaud would be approximately $43,764 (median) and $52,265 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in St Arnaud all fall between the 1st and 7th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that 35.5% of the population (801 individuals) fall within the $400 - $799 income range, unlike trends in the metropolitan region where 30.3% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. The prevalence of lower-income residents (45.0% under $800/week) suggests constrained household budgets across much of the district. While housing costs are modest with 89.5% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 4th percentile nationally.

St Arnaud is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

St Arnaud's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.4% houses and 5.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in St Arnaud was at 50.6%, with the rest being mortgaged (28.6%) or rented (20.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $867, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,043. Median weekly rent was $188, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $215. Nationally, St Arnaud's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

St Arnaud features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 55.3% of all households, including 17.6% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 44.7%, with lone person households at 42.5% and group households making up 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

St Arnaud faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.1%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.2%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 37.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (28.6%). A total of 23.5% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 9.2% in primary, 6.9% in secondary, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

A substantial 23.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

St Arnaud has three operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are served by three distinct routes, together offering 23 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is deemed limited, with residents typically residing 705 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 3 daily trips across all routes, equating to roughly 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in St Arnaud is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

St Arnaud faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 46% (1,039 people), compared to 49.1% across the rest of Victoria and a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.4%) and mental health issues (10.1%).

Conversely, 56.0% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 61.2% in the rest of Victoria. St Arnaud has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 32.1% (724 people), compared to 25.2% in the rest of Victoria. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees St Arnaud placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Arnaud showed lower cultural diversity, with 90.7% citizens and 93.1% born in Australia. English was spoken at home by 97.3%. Christianity was the predominant religion at 58.3%, compared to 51.6% regionally.

Top ancestral groups were English (34.4%), Australian (33.5%), and Scottish (9.8%). Hungarian, Irish, and Maltese showed notable differences: Hungarian at 0.3% (regional 0.1%), Irish at 9.6% (regional 8.1%), Maltese at 0.3% (regional 0.2%).

St Arnaud ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in St Arnaud is 52 years, significantly higher than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 years and also notably above the national norm of 38 years. The 75-84 age cohort is over-represented in St Arnaud at 11.3%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s average, while the 5-14 year-olds are under-represented at 8.8%. This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national figure of 6.0%. Between 2021 and present, the population of St Arnaud has seen growth in the 35 to 44 age group from 7.7% to 9.6%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.4% to 10.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes, with the 45 to 54 cohort projected to grow by 36%, adding 87 residents to reach a total of 329. In contrast, population declines are projected for both the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 age cohorts.