St Arnaud

An assessment of population growth drivers in St Arnaud reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of St Arnaud is around 2,258, a decrease of 60 people (2.6%) since the 2021 Census which reported 2,318 inhabitants. This estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of ABS' ERP data release from June 2024, indicating a resident population of 2,253 plus four additional validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density stands at 32 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains in recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, St Arnaud is expected to increase its population by 299 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 13.0% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in St Arnaud is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

St Arnaud had an average of two dwelling approvals per year between 2015 and 2019, totaling twelve approvals over the five-year period. This low development activity reflects the rural nature of the area, with residential growth primarily driven by local housing needs rather than broader market demand. The small number of approvals means individual projects can significantly impact annual growth statistics.

Compared to the rest of Victoria and national averages, St Arnaud has much lower development activity. Recent building activity consists solely of standalone homes, aligning with rural living preferences for space and privacy. With an estimated 1525 people per dwelling approval, St Arnaud's development environment is quiet and low-activity. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, St Arnaud is projected to grow by 294 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

St Arnaud has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No factors influence a region's performance more than changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially impact this area. Key projects include Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements, Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), and Victorian Renewable Energy Zones. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places St Arnaud well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

St Arnaud's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented with an unemployment rate of 2.0% as of December 2025. Employment grew by 1.2% in the past year.

The unemployment rate was 1.7% lower than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation was 53.6%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. Only 4.1% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing has a particularly strong presence with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level. Construction, however, has limited presence at 5.2% compared to Regional Vic.'s 10.4%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on resident population counts. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.2%, while the labour force decreased by 2.4%, causing a 3.5 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest St Arnaud's employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these projections are based on simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of St Arnaud has a median taxpayer income of $40,429 and an average income of $48,282 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is lower than the national average, contrasting with Regional Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $43,764 (median) and $52,265 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in St Arnaud fall between the 1st and 7th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis shows that the $400 - 799 bracket dominates with 35.5% of residents (801 people), differing from the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 category is predominant at 30.3%. The prevalence of lower-income residents indicates constrained household budgets across much of the area. Housing costs are modest with 89.5% of income retained, but the total disposable income ranks at just the 4th percentile nationally.

St Arnaud is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

St Arnaud's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.4% houses and 5.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in St Arnaud stood at 50.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.6% and rented ones at 20.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $867, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent was recorded at $188, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, St Arnaud's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

St Arnaud features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 55.3% of all households, including 17.6% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 44.7%, with lone person households at 42.5% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

St Arnaud faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 9.1%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.2%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 37.7% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (28.6%).

A substantial 23.5% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, with 9.2% in primary, 6.9% in secondary, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

St Arnaud has three active public transport stops, served by three distinct routes. These routes together offer 23 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is limited, with residents typically residing 705 meters from the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential area, outward commuting is common. Cars are the primary mode of transport for 87% of residents, while 10% walk. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, only 4.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages three trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately seven weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in St Arnaud is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

St Arnaud faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notably high across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low, at approximately 46% of the total population (around 1,039 people), compared to 50.5% in Regional Vic.

and a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 12.4% and 10.1% of residents respectively, while 56.0% report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic.. The working-age population faces substantial health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. St Arnaud has a higher proportion of seniors, with 31.7% of residents aged 65 and over (715 people), compared to 23.9% in Regional Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present additional challenges, ranking even higher than the general population nationally.

The latest Census data sees St Arnaud placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Arnaud's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 90.7% of its population being citizens, 93.1% born in Australia, and 97.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in St Arnaud, comprising 58.3% of people, compared to 47.3% across Regional Vic. The top three ancestry groups are English (34.4%), Australian (33.5%), and Scottish (9.8%).

Notably, Hungarian representation is higher than regional averages at 0.3%, while Irish and Maltese representations are slightly lower at 9.6% and 0.3% respectively.

St Arnaud ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

St Arnaud's median age is 51 years, which is significantly higher than the Regional Victoria average of 43 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Comparing with the Regional Victoria average, the cohort aged 75-84 is notably over-represented in St Arnaud at 11.5%, while those aged 5-14 are under-represented at 9.2%. This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national figure of 6.1%. According to post-2021 Census data, the population percentage for the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 7.7% to 9.9%, and the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 9.3% to 10.4%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 12.4% to 10.3%, and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 14.3% to 13.0%. By 2041, St Arnaud is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. The demographic shift will be led by the 45 to 54 group, which is projected to grow by 40%, reaching 326 from 232 people. Meanwhile, population declines are forecast for the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 age cohorts.