Stawell

An assessment of population growth drivers in Stawell reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Stawell's population is approximately 8,465 as of November 2025. This figure represents a decrease of 39 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 8,504. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,399 in June 2024 and an additional 65 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 3.1 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Stawell has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.1%, exceeding that of its SA3 area. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during this period.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Stawell is expected to experience a population increase just below the median of non-metropolitan areas nationally, with an expansion of 486 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of approximately 5.7%.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Stawell according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Stawell has averaged approximately 29 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25147 homes were approved, with an additional 9 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 0.5 new residents have arrived per new home over the past five financial years.

This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average value of new homes being built is $287,000. In FY-26, there have been $31.7 million in commercial approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Relative to the Rest of Vic., Stawell shows comparable building activity per person, supporting market stability inline with regional patterns.

This activity is below the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 91.0% detached dwellings and 9.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 381 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Stawell is expected to grow by 419 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Stawell has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Three projects are identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area: Western Highway Upgrade from Ararat to Stawell, Great Western Future Plan 2014-2024, Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements, and SEC Renewable Energy Park - Horsham.

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Employment performance in Stawell exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Stawell's workforce comprises an equal mix of white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate as of September 2025 is 2.1%.

There are 4,162 employed residents, with a rate 1.6% lower than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation stands at 53.4%, below Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and accommodation & food. Manufacturing is notably concentrated, with levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

Conversely, construction is under-represented at 6.6% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 10.4%. Some residents commute for work based on Census data. Over the year to September 2025, labour force decreased by 4.3%, employment by 2.0%, lowering unemployment by 2.3 percentage points. State-wide, VIC's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year (adding 41,950 jobs) as of 25-Nov, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Stawell's mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.6% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Stawell SA2 had a median income of $45,057 and an average of $53,917. This is below the national average. Rest of Vic.'s median was $48,741 with an average of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, current estimates for Stawell are approximately $50,536 (median) and $60,473 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Stawell fall between the 12th and 23rd percentiles nationally. In terms of income distribution, 27.9% of individuals earn $1,500 - 2,999, aligning with the surrounding region at 30.3%. Housing costs are modest, with 90.1% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 19th percentile nationally.

Stawell is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The latest Census evaluated dwelling structures in Stawell as 92.2% houses and 7.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Stawell stood at 47.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.1% and rented ones at 23.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,010, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,043. Weekly rent in Stawell was recorded at $214, slightly higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s figure of $215. Nationally, Stawell's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863 and rents substantially below the national average of $375.

Stawell features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 62.8% of all households, including 21.4% couples with children, 31.4% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.2%, with lone person households at 34.0% and group households making up 3.0% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Stawell fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.7%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 29.4%. Educational participation is high, with 26.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.3% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Stawell has 74 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 19 different routes, which together provide 297 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents typically located within 250 meters of the nearest stop.

On average, there are 42 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Stawell is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Stawell faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Only about 47% (~3,978 people) have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

Arthritis and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions, affecting 12.3 and 9.3% of residents respectively. About 60.2% report having no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of Vic's 61.2%. Stawell has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 25.8% (2,184 people).

Stawell is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Stawell's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.4% of its population being citizens and 88.4% born in Australia. The majority spoke English only at home, at 92.7%. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 45.2% of Stawell's population.

The most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, with 0.8% compared to 0.5% across the rest of Victoria. In terms of ancestry, Australian was the top group at 33.0%, followed by English at 32.3% and Scottish at 9.2%. There were notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: German was overrepresented at 4.0% (compared to 6.6% regionally), Dutch at 1.4% (compared to 1.1%), and Filipino at 1.3% (compared to 0.7%).

Stawell hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Stawell's median age is 47 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of Vic. average of 43 and exceeds the national average of 38 years by a substantial margin. The age profile reveals that individuals aged 25-34 are particularly prominent, making up 13.3% of the population, while those aged 45-54 comprise a smaller proportion at 9.8%, compared to the Rest of Vic.. Between 2021 and now, the percentage of the population in the 35-44 age group has increased from 9.9% to 11.7%, while the 25-34 cohort has grown from 12.1% to 13.3%. Conversely, the proportion of individuals aged 45-54 has decreased from 12.0% to 9.8%. By the year 2041, Stawell's age composition is expected to undergo notable shifts. The 35-44 age group is projected to grow by 32%, adding 317 people and reaching a total of 1,307 from its previous figure of 989. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 65-74 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.