Stawell

An assessment of population growth drivers in Stawell reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Stawell's population is 8,446 as of May 2026. This shows a decrease of 58 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,504. The change is inferred from ABS data: an estimated resident population of 8,438 in June 2025 and 73 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 3.1 persons per square kilometer. Stawell's decline of 0.7% outperforms its SA3 area (-1.6%). Overseas migration primarily drove population growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For uncovered areas, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted via weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, Stawell is projected to increase by 465 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 5.4% over 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Stawell according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Stawell averaged approximately 29 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25147 homes were approved, with a further 12 approved in FY-26 to date. Over the past five financial years, an average of 0.5 new residents arrived per new home.

This indicates that new supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new homes was $287,000. In FY-26, there have been $31.7 million in commercial approvals, suggesting strong commercial development momentum. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Stawell shows comparable building activity per person, supporting market stability in line with regional patterns.

This activity is below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 91.0% detached dwellings and 9.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 381 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Stawell is expected to grow by 457 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Stawell has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified three projects likely affecting this region. Key projects are Western Highway Upgrade from Ararat to Stawell, Great Western Future Plan 2014-2024, Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements, and SEC Renewable Energy Park - Horsham. The following list details those most relevant.

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Stawell ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Stawell's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented. The unemployment rate was 1.7% as of December 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1%. In December 2025, 4,198 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.0%, below Regional Vic.'s 3.7%. Workforce participation was similar to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. Census responses showed 11.9% of residents worked from home.

Leading employment industries included health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and accommodation & food. Manufacturing had a particularly high share at 1.8 times the regional level, while construction was lower at 6.6% compared to Regional Vic.'s 10.4%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 1.0%, labour force decreased by 2.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 3.1 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic.'s employment contracted by 0.6%, labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.1%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Stawell's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.6% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released in financial year 2023, Stawell SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $45,471. The average income stood at $55,212. This was lower than the national average and compared to levels of $50,954 and $62,728 across Regional Vic., respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for median income are approximately $49,845 as of March 2026, with average income estimated at $60,523 during the same period. Census data shows household, family and personal incomes in Stawell fall between the 12th and 23rd percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 27.9% of the community (2,356 individuals) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to the broader area where 30.3% occupy this bracket. Housing costs are modest with 90.1% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 19th percentile nationally.

Stawell is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Stawell, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, consisted of 92.2% houses and 7.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Stawell was at 47.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (29.1%) or rented (23.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area, as of June 2021, was $1,010, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $214. In comparison, Regional Vic.'s average mortgage repayments were $1,430 and rents were $285. Nationally, Stawell's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, as of June 2021, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Stawell features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.8% of all households, including 21.4% couples with children, 31.4% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.2%, with lone person households at 34.0% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Regional Vic average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Stawell fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.7%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (29.4%). Educational participation is high at 26.7%, with 10.3% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Stawell has 74 active public transport stops. These are served by 9 routes offering a total of 216 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is good with residents typically 250 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, predominantly by car (89%), with walking at 7%. Average vehicle ownership is 1.5 per dwelling. In 2021 Census data, 11.9% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 30 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Stawell is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Stawell faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Only approximately 47% of Stawell's total population (~4,003 people) have private health cover, compared to 50.5% in Regional Vic., and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.3%) and mental health issues (9.3%). Conversely, 60.2% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic.. Working-age population health challenges include elevated chronic condition rates. Stawell has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 26.8% (2,266 people), compared to 23.9% in Regional Vic., with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Stawell is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Stawell's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.4% of its population being citizens, 88.4% born in Australia, and 92.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Stawell, making up 45.2% of people there. Notably, the 'Other' category comprises 0.8% of Stawell's population, compared to the regional average of 0.8%.

The top three ancestry groups in Stawell are Australian (33.0%), English (32.3%), and Scottish (9.2%). There are notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: German is overrepresented at 4.0% (compared to 3.5% regionally), Dutch at 1.4% (vs 1.7%), and Filipino at 1.3% (vs 0.6%).

Stawell hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Stawell's median age of 48 years is significantly older than Regional Vic.'s 43 and the Australian median of 38. The age profile shows that the 25-34 year-olds are particularly prominent at 13.0%, while the 15-24 group is smaller at 9.3% compared to Regional Vic.. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 35-44 age group has grown from 9.9% to 11.7%, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 8.0% to 9.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 12.0% to 10.1%, and the 55-64 group has dropped from 15.5% to 14.5%. Demographic modeling suggests that Stawell's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the 35-44 age cohort projected to grow steadily, expanding by 263 people (27%) from 990 to 1,254. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 15-24 and 65-74 cohorts.