Ararat Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Ararat Surrounds's population is around 3,254 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 50 people (1.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,204 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,178 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 33 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 0.80 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Ararat Surrounds's 1.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (1.0%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 82.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a population increase just below the median of regional areas nationally is expected, with the area expected to increase by 267 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 5.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ararat Surrounds, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Ararat Surrounds has recorded around 11 residential properties granted approval annually, totalling 58 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 6 approvals have been recorded. Given population has fallen over the past period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice, while new dwellings are developed at an average value of $356,000. There have also been $9.1 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating limited commercial development focus.

Compared to Rest of Vic., Ararat Surrounds maintains similar construction rates (per person), preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. This level is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. Meanwhile, new construction has been completely comprised of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. At around 220 people per approval, Ararat Surrounds reflects a low density area.

Population forecasts indicate Ararat Surrounds will gain 191 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Ararat Surrounds has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 2 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Western Highway Upgrade - Ararat to Stawell, Great Western Future Plan 2014-2024, Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade, and Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Ararat Surrounds rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Ararat Surrounds has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of just 1.0%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 1,716 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 2.7% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (65.8% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%). Based on Census responses, a high 29.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area has a particular employment specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 5.3 times the regional level. Conversely, construction is under-represented, with only 4.3% of the Ararat Surrounds workforce compared to 10.4% in Regional Vic.. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increase by 0.2% alongside a labour force decrease of 2.0%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 2.2 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Ararat Surrounds. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to the Ararat Surrounds employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 4.8% over five years and 11.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Ararat Surrounds SA2 is below the national average, with the median assessed at $49,145 while the average income stands at $59,764. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $53,199 (median) and $64,695 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Ararat Surrounds, between the 27th and 31st percentiles. The data shows the predominant cohort spans 32.3% of locals (1,051 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the broader area where this cohort likewise represents 30.3%. Housing costs are manageable with 93.3% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 38th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Ararat Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Ararat Surrounds, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 99.2% houses and 0.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Ararat Surrounds was well beyond that of Regional Vic., at 58.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (30.1%) or rented (11.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional Vic. average at $1,083, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $151, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Ararat Surrounds's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ararat Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 71.2% of all households, comprising 27.1% couples with children, 36.3% couples without children, and 7.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 28.8%, with lone person households at 27.1% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people matches the Regional Vic. average.

Educational attainment in Ararat Surrounds aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (20.4%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.5%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (14.5%) and certificates (26.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 16 active transport stops operating within Ararat Surrounds. These stops are serviced by 7 individual routes, collectively providing 60 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 1542 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 85%, with 12% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 2.1 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 29.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 8 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 3 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Ararat Surrounds is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Ararat Surrounds demonstrates above-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts see low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 49% of the total population (~1,591 people). The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.5 and 7.5% of residents, respectively, while 65.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic.. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 25.8% of residents aged 65 and over (840 people), which is higher than the 23.9% in Regional Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Ararat Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat Surrounds was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 88.5% of its population being citizens, 90.1% born in Australia, and 98.1% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Ararat Surrounds is Christianity, which makes up 46.9% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.1% of the population, compared to 0.1% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Ararat Surrounds are Australian, comprising 33.5% of the population, English, comprising 30.7% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 12.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Maori is notably overrepresented at 0.6% of Ararat Surrounds (vs 0.2% regionally), Irish at 9.1% (vs 9.7%), and German at 3.8% (vs 3.5%).

Ararat Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

With a median age of 49, Ararat Surrounds notably exceeds the Regional Vic. figure of 43 and is well above Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Regional Vic. average, the 55 - 64 cohort is notably over-represented (16.6% locally), while 15 - 24 year-olds are under-represented (7.5%). This 55 - 64 concentration is well above the national 11.2%. Since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.0% to 8.7% of the population. Conversely, the 85+ cohort has declined from 1.9% to 1.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Ararat Surrounds's age structure. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to experience strong growth, expanding by 80 people (30%) from 265 to 346. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 85+ and 5 to 14 cohorts.