Ararat Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ararat Surrounds' population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, is approximately 3,188 as of May 2026. This figure represents a decrease of 16 people from the 2021 Census total of 3,204, indicating a 0.5% decline since then. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,181 in June 2025 and an additional 33 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 0.80 persons per square kilometer. While Ararat Surrounds experienced a 0.5% decline compared to the SA3 area's -1.6%, overseas migration was the primary driver for population growth during recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, they utilise Victorian State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Ararat Surrounds is expected to increase by approximately 256 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of around 7.8% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ararat Surrounds, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Ararat Surrounds has recorded approximately 11 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 58 homes. As of FY26, 11 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $356,000.

This financial year, there have also been $9.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited commercial development focus compared to residential. Ararat Surrounds maintains similar construction rates per person as the rest of Victoria, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. All new construction has consisted of standalone homes, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers, with around 220 people per dwelling approval.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Ararat Surrounds is projected to add 249 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ararat Surrounds has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Two projects identified by AreaSearch are likely to impact the area significantly: Western Highway Upgrade - Ararat to Stawell and Great Western Future Plan 2014-2024. Other notable projects include Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade and Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project).

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Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The exceptional employment performance in Ararat Surrounds places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Ararat Surrounds has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 1.0% as of December 2025. Over the past year, it maintained relative employment stability.

As of that date, 1,716 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.7% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation was at 65.1%, slightly higher than Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. According to Census responses, 29.0% of residents worked from home. Key industries of employment were agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Ararat Surrounds had a particular specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 5.3 times the regional level. However, construction was under-represented, at 4.3% compared to Regional Vic.'s 10.4%. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally based on Census data comparison of working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.2%, while labour force decreased by 2.0%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate of 2.2 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.6% and labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections suggest Ararat Surrounds' employment should increase by 4.8% over five years and 11.0% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Income data from AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO figures for financial year 2023 shows median income in Ararat Surrounds SA2 is $49,145, with average income at $59,764. This is lower than Regional Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728. Based on a 9.62% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $53,873 (median) and $65,513 (average). Census data from 2021 ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Ararat Surrounds between the 27th and 31st percentiles. The predominant income cohort is 32.3% of locals (1,029 people) earning $1,500 - 2,999, similar to the broader area at 30.3%. Housing costs are manageable with 93.3% retained, but disposable income ranks at the 38th percentile and SEIFA income ranking places Ararat Surrounds in the 6th decile.

Ararat Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Ararat Surrounds, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.2% houses and 0.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional Vic.'s figures of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ararat Surrounds stood at 58.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.1% and rented ones at 11.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Ararat Surrounds was $151, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Ararat Surrounds' mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,083 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ararat Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 71.2% of all households, including 27.1% couples with children, 36.3% couples without children, and 7.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 28.8%, with lone person households at 27.1% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional Vic. average.

Educational attainment in Ararat Surrounds aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.5%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (14.5%) and certificates (26.9%). Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 12.0% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ararat Surrounds has 16 active public transport stops serviced by 7 routes offering 60 weekly passenger trips. Residents have limited accessibility to these stops, averaging 1542 meters from the nearest one. The area is primarily residential with outward commuting patterns. Car is the dominant mode of transport at 85%, followed by walking at 12%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.1 per dwelling, above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 29% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 8 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 3 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Ararat Surrounds is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Ararat Surrounds shows superior health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age groups exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover is found to be very low at approximately 49% of the total population (~1,558 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.5%) and mental health issues (7.5%). A significant majority, 65.2%, report being completely free from medical ailments, slightly higher than the Regional Vic. average of 63.4%. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 26.2% (834 people), compared to Regional Vic.'s 23.9%. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, closely mirroring national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Ararat Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat Surrounds had a lower cultural diversity, with 88.5% Australian citizens, 90.1% born in Australia, and 98.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 46.9%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Regional Vic's 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (33.5%), English (30.7%), and Scottish (12.6%). Notably, Maori were overrepresented at 0.6% versus regional 0.2%, Irish at 9.1% versus 9.7%, and German at 3.8% versus 3.5%.

Ararat Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Ararat Surrounds has a median age of 49, which is higher than Regional Vic.'s figure of 43 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to the Regional Vic. average, Ararat Surrounds has an over-representation of the 65-74 cohort (16.3% locally vs. regional average), while the 25-34 age group is under-represented (7.8%). The concentration of the 65-74 cohort in Ararat Surrounds is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 7.0% to 8.3%, while those aged 15 to 24 increased from 7.6% to 8.8%. Conversely, the age group of 5 to 14 has declined from 12.8% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Ararat Surrounds' age structure. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow by 81 people (33%), increasing from 248 to 330. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 85+ and 5-14 cohorts.