Ararat Surrounds
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ararat Surrounds' population is approximately 3,218 as of Aug 2025. This figure reflects a growth of 14 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 3,204. The increase is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 3,178 in June 2024 and an additional 23 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 0.80 persons per square kilometer. Ararat Surrounds' growth rate of 0.4% from 2021 exceeds the SA3 area's (-0.6%) and the SA4 region's, though overall growth remains modest. Overseas migration contributed approximately 82.0% to recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Ararat Surrounds is projected to increase by 267 persons, marking a total increase of 7.0% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ararat Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ararat Surrounds has recorded approximately 10 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis. Over the past five financial years, from FY20 to FY25, around 50 dwellings were approved. By February 26, 3 dwellings have been recorded for FY26.

Despite population decline in the area, development activity has been adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average value of $528,000, which is somewhat higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. This financial year, there have been $9.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Ararat Surrounds shows comparable construction activity per person, maintaining market balance consistent with the broader area.

Nationally, however, this activity is lower, suggesting market maturity and potential development constraints. All new construction has been standalone homes, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 220 people per dwelling approval, Ararat Surrounds exhibits characteristics of a low density area. Future projections indicate Ararat Surrounds adding 227 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand readily, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ararat Surrounds has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Two projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: Western Highway Upgrade - Ararat to Stawell (2016-2021) and Great Western Future Plan 2014-2024. Other notable projects include Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade (2018-ongoing) and Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project, 2016-present).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis places Ararat Surrounds well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Ararat Surrounds has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of 2.0% as of June 2025. It has 1,671 residents in work, with an unemployment rate 1.8% below the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is at 59.5%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has an employment share 5.3 times the regional level, while construction is under-represented at 4.3% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 10.4%. The labour force decreased by 4.2% between June 2024 and June 2025, with employment decreasing by 3.4%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.8 percentage points.

By comparison, Rest of Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.9%. State-level data to Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts from May 2025 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ararat Surrounds's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 4.8% over five years and 11.0% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Ararat Surrounds is below the national average. The median income is $46,922 and the average income stands at $57,268. In comparison, Rest of Vic.'s figures are a median income of $48,741 and an average income of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $51,666 (median) and $63,058 (average) as of March 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Ararat Surrounds rank modestly, between the 27th and 32nd percentiles. The data indicates that the predominant cohort spans 32.3% of locals (1,039 people) with incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, which aligns with the broader area where this cohort also represents 30.3%. Housing costs are manageable with 93.3% retained, however disposable income sits below average at the 39th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Ararat Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Ararat Surrounds, as per the latest Census, had 99.2% houses and 0.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ararat Surrounds was 58.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.1% and rented ones at 11.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,043. Median weekly rent in Ararat Surrounds was $151, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s $215 and the national figure of $375. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863 compared to Ararat Surrounds' figure.

Ararat Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 71.2% of all households, including 27.1% couples with children, 36.3% couples without children, and 7.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 28.8%, with lone person households at 27.1% and group households making up 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

Educational attainment in Ararat Surrounds aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 20.4%, significantly lower than the Victorian average of 33.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 15.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.5%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas at 14.5% and certificates at 26.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 1.9% in tertiary education. There are six schools operating within Ararat Surrounds, educating approximately 199 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1006) and balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes five primary and one K-12 school. Local school capacity is limited at 6.2 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 13.9, leading many families to travel nearby for schooling.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ararat Surrounds has 16 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by a mix of buses along 16 different routes. The total number of weekly passenger trips provided is 98.

Transport accessibility in the area is rated as limited, with residents typically located approximately 1542 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency across all routes is 14 trips per day, which equates to about 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ararat Surrounds is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ararat Surrounds faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~1,554 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.5% and 7.5% of residents respectively. However, 65.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 61.2% across the rest of Victoria. The area has 25.7% of residents aged 65 and over (827 people). Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Ararat Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat Surrounds had low cultural diversity, with 88.5% citizens, 90.1% born in Australia, and 98.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion (46.9%). Judaism, at 0.1%, was overrepresented compared to Rest of Vic's 0%.

Top three ancestry groups were Australian (33.5%), English (30.7%), and Scottish (12.6%). Maori (0.6%) and Irish (9.1%) were overrepresented, while German (3.8%) was underrepresented compared to regional averages.

Ararat Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Ararat Surrounds has a median age of 49, which is higher than both the Rest of Vic's figure of 43 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of Vic's average, Ararat Surrounds has an over-representation of the 55-64 cohort (16.9%) and an under-representation of the 15-24 age group (7.4%). The percentage of people aged 55-64 is notably higher than the national average of 11.2%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of people aged 75 to 84 has increased from 7.0% to 8.8%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 13.6% to 12.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Ararat Surrounds' age structure. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 84 people (32%), from 261 to 346. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 85+ and 5-14 age cohorts.