Ararat Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ararat Surrounds' population, as of February 2026, is approximately 3,254. This figure reflects a growth of 50 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 3,204. The increase was inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,178 in June 2024 and an additional 33 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 0.80 persons per square kilometer. Ararat Surrounds' growth rate of 1.6% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (1.0%) and the SA4 region, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 82.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is expected to increase by approximately 267 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 5.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ararat Surrounds, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Ararat Surrounds has recorded approximately 11 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 58 homes. As of FY26, 6 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $356,000.

In the current financial year, there have been $9.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited focus on commercial development. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Ararat Surrounds maintains similar construction rates per person, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. This level is lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. All new construction has been detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes.

With around 220 people per approval, Ararat Surrounds reflects a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Ararat Surrounds is forecasted to gain 191 residents by 2041. Current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Ararat Surrounds has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Two projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: the Western Highway Upgrade from Ararat to Stawell and the Great Western Future Plan 2014-2024. Other notable projects include the Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade and the Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades under the Murray Basin Rail Project.

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Employment conditions in Ararat Surrounds demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Ararat Surrounds has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 1.3% as of September 2025. It has 1,705 residents in work, with an unemployment rate 2.5% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is at 65.5%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%.

According to Census responses, 29.0% of residents work from home. Key industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has a notable concentration with employment levels at 5.3 times the regional average. Construction has limited presence with 4.3% employment compared to 10.4% regionally.

The area may offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. From September 2024 to August 2025, labour force decreased by 4.0%, while employment declined by 2.2%, causing unemployment rate to fall by 1.8 percentage points. Rest of Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.7% and a labour force decline of 0.6%, with unemployment rising marginally. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ararat Surrounds' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 4.8% over five years and 11.0% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Ararat Surrounds SA2 had an income level below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $49,145 and the average income stood at $59,764. These figures compared to Rest of Vic.'s median of $50,954 and average of $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $53,199 (median) and $64,695 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly in Ararat Surrounds, between the 27th and 31st percentiles. The income distribution showed that 32.3% of individuals earned between $1,500 - 2,999, aligning with metropolitan regions at 30.3%. Housing costs were manageable with 93.3% retained, but disposable income was below average at the 38th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Ararat Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Ararat Surrounds, as per the latest Census evaluation, 99.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 0.8% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro Vic., where 90.1% of dwellings were houses and 9.9% were other types. Home ownership in Ararat Surrounds stood at 58.7%, with mortgaged properties making up 30.1% and rented dwellings accounting for 11.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Ararat Surrounds was $151, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Ararat Surrounds' mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ararat Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 71.2% of all households, including 27.1% couples with children, 36.3% couples without children, and 7.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 28.8%, with lone person households at 27.1% and group households making up 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational attainment in Ararat Surrounds aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.5%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 41.4% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 14.5% and certificates at 26.9%. Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.0% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ararat Surrounds has 16 active public transport stops. These are serviced by 7 routes offering a total of 60 weekly passenger trips. Residents have limited access to transport, with an average distance of 1542 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Cars dominate as the main mode of transport at 85%, while 12% walk. The area has an average of 2.1 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 29% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Each route serves on average 8 trips daily, resulting in approximately 3 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Ararat Surrounds is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Ararat Surrounds demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts show low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 49% of the total population (~1,591 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.5% and 7.5% of residents respectively. 65.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of Vic. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 25.8% of residents aged 65 and over (840 people), which is higher than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Ararat Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat Surrounds, as per data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2016, showed below-average cultural diversity with 88.5% of its population being citizens, 90.1% born in Australia, and 98.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, constituting 46.9% of Ararat Surrounds' population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented compared to Rest of Vic., with 0.1% versus 0.1%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (33.5%), English (30.7%), and Scottish (12.6%) were the top three groups represented in Ararat Surrounds. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Maori was overrepresented at 0.6%, Irish at 9.1% compared to regional percentages of 0.2% and 9.7% respectively, and German at 3.8% versus 3.5%.

Ararat Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Ararat Surrounds has a median age of 49, which is higher than the Rest of Vic's figure of 43 and Australia's national median age of 38. Compared to the Rest of Vic average, Ararat Surrounds has an over-representation of the 55-64 cohort (16.6% locally vs. average) and under-representation of the 15-24 cohort (7.5%). The 55-64 concentration is well above the national figure of 11.2%. From 2021 to present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 7.0% to 8.7%, while the 85+ cohort has declined from 1.9% to 1.1%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Ararat Surrounds's age structure: the 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow by 80 people (30%), from 265 to 346, while population declines are projected for the 85+ and 5-14 cohorts.