Ararat Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ararat Surrounds' population was approximately 3,204 as of the 2021 Census. By November 2025, this figure had increased to around 3,231, reflecting a growth of 27 people (0.8%). This increase is inferred from an estimated resident population of 3,179 in June 2024 and the addition of 28 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio was approximately 0.80 persons per square kilometer. Ararat Surrounds' growth rate of 0.8% between the 2021 Census and November 2025 exceeded that of its SA3 area, which had a decline of 0.2%. This growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 82.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilized VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, Ararat Surrounds is expected to increase by 267 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 6.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ararat Surrounds, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Ararat Surrounds has recorded approximately 11 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 58 homes. As of FY26, 5 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $356,000.

In the current financial year, there have been $9.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited focus on commercial development. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Ararat Surrounds maintains similar construction rates per person, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. This level is lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and potential development constraints. All new construction has been comprised of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

Ararat Surrounds reflects a low density area, with approximately 220 people per approval. Population forecasts indicate that Ararat Surrounds will gain 214 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Ararat Surrounds has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Two projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area: Western Highway Upgrade - Ararat to Stawell and Great Western Future Plan 2014-2024.

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Employment conditions in Ararat Surrounds demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Ararat Surrounds has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 1.3% as of September 2025. In this month, 1,705 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.5 percentage points lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation stands at 59.5%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries of employment among residents include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Notably, the area has a high concentration in agriculture, forestry & fishing with employment levels at 5.3 times the regional average. Conversely, construction has limited presence with 4.3% employment compared to the regional average of 10.4%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force decreased by 4.0%, while employment declined by 2.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.8 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.7% and a labour force decline of 0.6%, with unemployment rising marginally. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ararat Surrounds's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 4.8% over five years and 11.0% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Ararat Surrounds SA2 had an income level below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ended June 30, 2022. The median income among taxpayers was $46,922 and the average income stood at $57,268. Comparing this with Rest of Vic., the median and average incomes were $48,741 and $60,693 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year ended June 30, 2022, current estimates for Ararat Surrounds would be approximately $52,628 (median) and $64,232 (average) as of September 2025. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household, family and personal incomes all ranked modestly in Ararat Surrounds, between the 27th and 31st percentiles. Income distribution showed that the $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band captured 32.3% of the community (1,043 individuals), similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort also represented 30.3%. Housing costs were manageable with 93.3% retained, but disposable income was below average at the 38th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Ararat Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Ararat Surrounds' dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.2% houses and 0.8% other dwellings. This contrasts with Non-Metro Vic.'s figures of 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ararat Surrounds stood at 58.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.1% and rented ones at 11.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,043 but significantly lower than the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Ararat Surrounds was $151, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $215 and the national figure of $375.

Ararat Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 71.2% of all households, including 27.1% couples with children, 36.3% couples without children, and 7.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 28.8%, with lone person households at 27.1% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

Educational attainment in Ararat Surrounds aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.6%, followed by graduate diplomas at 2.5% and postgraduate qualifications at 2.3%. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding them. Advanced diplomas account for 14.5% and certificates for 26.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 16 active stops operating within Ararat Surrounds, served by a mix of buses. These stops are covered by 16 routes offering 98 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport access is rated limited, with residents typically located 1542 meters from the nearest stop.

Services average 14 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ararat Surrounds is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ararat Surrounds faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population, which is around 1,560 people.

This is lower than the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.5 and 7.5% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 65.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 61.2% across the rest of Victoria. The area has 25.7% of residents aged 65 and over, which is approximately 830 people. Health outcomes among seniors in Ararat Surrounds are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Ararat Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat Surrounds had low cultural diversity, with 88.5% citizens, 90.1% born in Australia, and 98.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, at 46.9%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to 0.0% regionally.

Ancestry-wise, Australian (33.5%), English (30.7%), and Scottish (12.6%) were top groups. Notable divergences included Maori at 0.6% (vs regional 0.2%), Irish at 9.1% (vs 8.1%), and German at 3.8% (vs 6.6%).

Ararat Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Ararat Surrounds has a median age of 49, which is higher than the Rest of Vic's figure of 43 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of Vic average, Ararat Surrounds has an over-representation of the 55-64 cohort (16.9% locally), while the 15-24 year-olds are under-represented (7.4%). This concentration of the 55-64 age group is well above the national average of 11.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.0% to 8.8% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.6% to 12.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Ararat Surrounds's age structure. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to grow by 82 people (32%), increasing from 263 to 346. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 85+ and 5 to 14 cohorts.