Ararat Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ararat Surrounds' population was around 3,204 as of 2021 Census. By Nov 2025, it is estimated to be approximately 3,238, reflecting an increase of 34 people (1.1%) since the Census. This growth is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 3,178 in June 2024 and 28 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 0.80 persons per square kilometer. Since the 2021 Census, Ararat Surrounds has shown a higher growth rate (1.1%) compared to its SA3 area (0.8%). Overseas migration contributed approximately 82% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 adjusted to SA2 levels for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas from 2032 to 2041. Based on latest annual ERP population numbers, Ararat Surrounds is expected to increase by 267 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 6.4% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ararat Surrounds, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Ararat Surrounds has recorded approximately 11 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 58 homes. In FY26 so far, 6 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $356,000.

This year, there have also been $9.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited focus on commercial development. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Ararat Surrounds maintains similar construction rates per person, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. Nationally, however, these rates are lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. All new construction has been detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes.

With around 220 people per approval, Ararat Surrounds reflects a low density area. Population forecasts indicate an increase of 207 residents by 2041 (AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Ararat Surrounds has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects that will likely affect this region. Key projects include the Western Highway Upgrade from Ararat to Stawell, the Great Western Future Plan spanning 2014 to 2024, the Western Highway upgrade between Ballarat and Stawell, and the Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades under the Murray Basin Rail Project. The following details projects most relevant to this area.

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Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Ararat Surrounds demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Ararat Surrounds has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 1.3% as of September 2025. There are 1,705 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 2.5% below the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. The workforce participation rate is 65.6%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%.

According to Census responses, 29.0% of residents work from home. Key industries of employment among residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training, with notable concentration in agriculture, forestry & fishing at 5.3 times the regional average. Construction has limited presence with 4.3% employment compared to 10.4% regionally. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

In the 12-month period ending September 2025, labour force decreased by 4.0%, while employment declined by 2.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.8 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of Vic. recorded employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Ararat Surrounds' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 4.8% over five years and 11.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Ararat Surrounds SA2 had an income level below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $49,145 and the average income stood at $59,764. These figures compared to those of Rest of Vic., which were $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $53,199 (median) and $64,695 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all ranked modestly in Ararat Surrounds, between the 27th and 31st percentiles. The income distribution showed that the $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band captured 32.3% of the community (1,045 individuals), aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represented 30.3%. Housing costs were manageable with 93.3% retained, though disposable income sat below average at the 38th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Ararat Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Ararat Surrounds, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.2% houses and 0.8% other dwellings (including semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ararat Surrounds stood at 58.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.1% and rented ones at 11.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure in Ararat Surrounds was $151, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Ararat Surrounds's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ararat Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 71.2% of all households, including 27.1% couples with children, 36.3% couples without children, and 7.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 28.8%, with lone person households at 27.1% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, aligning with the average in Rest of Vic.

Educational attainment in Ararat Surrounds aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.5%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (14.5%) and certificates (26.9%). Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.0% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ararat Surrounds has 16 active public transport stops serviced by 7 routes offering 60 weekly passenger trips. Residents have limited accessibility with an average distance of 1542 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward using cars (85%), while 12% walk. The area has an average vehicle ownership of 2.1 per dwelling, above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high 29% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 8 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 3 weekly trips per individual stop.

Service frequency averages 8 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 3 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Ararat Surrounds is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Ararat Surrounds demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts show low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is found to be very low at approximately 49% of the total population (around 1,583 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.5 and 7.5% of residents respectively, while 65.2% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of Vic.. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 25.7% of residents aged 65 and over (832 people), which is higher than the 23.5% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Ararat Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat Surrounds had a lower cultural diversity, with 88.5% of its population being citizens, 90.1% born in Australia, and 98.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 46.9% of people in Ararat Surrounds. Judaism, however, was relatively overrepresented, making up 0.1% compared to 0.1% across Rest of Vic..

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (33.5%), English (30.7%), and Scottish (12.6%). Notably, Maori were more represented at 0.6%, Irish at 9.1%, and German at 3.8%.

Ararat Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Ararat Surrounds has a median age of 49, which is higher than the Rest of Vic's figure of 43 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Comparing with the Rest of Vic average, Ararat Surrounds has an over-representation of the 55-64 cohort at 16.9%, while the 15-24 age group is under-represented at 7.4%. This concentration of the 55-64 cohort is notably higher than the national average of 11.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 7.0% to 8.8% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 13.6% to 12.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Ararat Surrounds' age structure. The 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow by 82 people (31%) from 263 to 346. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 85+ and 5 to 14 cohorts.