Alfredton

Alfredton lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Alfredton's population is around 23,533 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 6,698 people (39.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,835 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,145 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 1,599 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 446 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Alfredton's 39.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of Vic. (8.1%) and the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 73.9% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and overseas migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, exceptional growth, placing the area in the top 10 percent of Australia's non-metropolitan areas, is predicted over the period, with the area expected to expand by 12,722 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 39.6% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Alfredton was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Alfredton has averaged around 452 new dwelling approvals each year, totalling 2,264 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26155 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 2.5 new residents per year gained for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), reflecting robust demand that underpins property values, new homes are being built at an average construction cost of $275,000. Additionally, $12.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development activity.

When measured against the Rest of Vic., Alfredton shows 133.0% higher new home approvals per person, creating greater choice for buyers, though building activity has slowed in recent years. This level is substantially higher than the national average, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 98.0% detached houses and 2.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 81 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Future projections show Alfredton adding 9,319 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Alfredton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 35 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Ballarat Private Hospital, Western Highway Upgrade, Circular Economy Precinct, and Insignia Estate, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Alfredton ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Alfredton possesses a well-educated workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of just 2.2%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 10,917 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.5% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (71.8% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 16.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in health care & social assistance, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 1.5% of Alfredton's workforce compared to 7.5% in Regional Vic.. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.5% while employment declined by 0.4%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6%, a labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Alfredton. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Alfredton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

The Alfredton SA2's income level is just above the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Alfredton SA2's median income among taxpayers is $54,417 and the average income stands at $69,239, which compares to figures for Regional Vic.'s of $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $58,906 (median) and $74,951 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Alfredton cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows 35.7% of the population (8,401 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the surrounding region where 30.3% occupy this bracket. After housing, 86.2% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Alfredton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Alfredton, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 92.7% houses and 7.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Alfredton was lagging that of Regional Vic., at 29.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (41.6%) or rented (28.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Regional Vic. average at $1,698, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $370, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Alfredton's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Alfredton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 77.8% of all households, comprising 39.0% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 13.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.2%, with lone person households at 19.0% and group households comprising 3.2% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Alfredton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile stands out regionally, with university qualification rates (29.8% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the Rest of Vic. average of 21.7% and that of the SA4 region (24.6%), reflecting the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees lead at 19.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.9%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 33.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (22.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 43 active transport stops operating within Alfredton. These stops are serviced by 2 individual routes, collectively providing 622 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 446 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 96%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling. Some 16.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 88 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Alfredton is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Alfredton demonstrates above-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population, though higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover just leads the average SA2 area at approximately 54% of the total population (~12,684 people), compared to 50.5% across Regional Vic..

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 9.6% and 9.4% of residents, respectively, while 68.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic.. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 12.0% of residents aged 65 and over (2,831 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Alfredton records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Alfredton was found to be roughly in line with the wider region's average in terms of cultural diversity, with 83.8% of the population born in Australia, 89.7% being citizens, and 86.5% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Alfredton is Christianity, which makes up 46.3% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 1.3% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Alfredton are English, comprising 28.8% of the population, Australian, comprising 27.6% of the population, and Irish, comprising 9.9% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 2.1% of Alfredton (vs 1.7% regionally), Indian at 3.5% (vs 0.8%) and Scottish at 8.6% (vs 8.8%).

Alfredton hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

The 33-year median age in Alfredton is considerably lower than Regional Vic.'s average of 43 and similarly substantially under the 38-year national average. Compared to the Regional Vic. average, the 5 - 14 cohort is notably over-represented (16.0% locally), while 65 - 74 year-olds are under-represented (6.9%). Post-2021 Census data shows the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 12.4% to 14.5% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 14.6% to 16.1%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 7.8% to 6.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Alfredton. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 72% (2,466 people), reaching 5,881 from 3,414.