Alfredton
Statistical Area - sa2

Alfredton lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Alfredton's population is around 20,683 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 3,848 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,835 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,185 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 1,350 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 392 persons per square kilometer. Alfredton's growth rate of 22.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the non-metro area (5.5%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 73.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the area expected to expand by 12,722 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 58.8% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Alfredton was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Alfredton has averaged approximately 452 new dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, with 2,264 dwellings approved between FY-21 and FY-25, and 45 approvals recorded so far in FY-26. Each year, an average of 2.5 new residents is gained per dwelling built over the past five financial years. The average construction cost value for new homes is $497,000.

In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $12.0 million, indicating balanced commercial development activity in Alfredton compared to the Rest of Vic., which has 133.0% fewer new home approvals per person. This suggests strong developer confidence in Alfredton's location. New developments consist predominantly of detached houses (98.0%) and a small proportion of attached dwellings (2.0%), maintaining the area's low density character while attracting space-seeking buyers. The population density, calculated as approximately 81 people per dwelling approval, indicates an expanding market with steady growth projected until 2041, when Alfredton is expected to add 12,169 residents. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering stable market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Future projections show Alfredton adding 12,169 residents by 2041. Present construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Alfredton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 34 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones are Lucas Lifestyle Estate, Western Highway Upgrade, Circular Economy Precinct, and New Lucas Hospital. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Alfredton performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Alfredton has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.5%, with an estimated employment growth of 6.7% over the past year.

As of June 2025, there are 10,271 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.3% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is high at 69.1%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area specializes particularly in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 1.5% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%.

Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 6.7%, with labour force increasing by 6.8%, maintaining a stable unemployment rate. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.9% and unemployment rose slightly. State-level data shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year to Sep-25, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Alfredton's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8%% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

Alfredton had a median income among taxpayers of $51,664 in financial year 2022. The average level was $66,162 during the same period. These figures are slightly above national averages and compare to levels of $48,741 and $60,693 across Rest of Vic., respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated median income is approximately $56,887 as of March 2025, while the average is estimated to be around $72,851 during the same period. Census data shows household, family and personal incomes in Alfredton cluster around the 62nd percentile nationally. Income distribution reveals that 35.7% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, with 7,383 people falling into this category. After housing expenses, 86.2% of income remains for other expenses in Alfredton. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile nationally.

Alfredton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Alfredton's residential structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.7% houses and 7.3% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and others. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 85.6% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Alfredton was at 29.7%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (41.6%) or rented (28.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Alfredton was $1,698, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,499. The median weekly rent figure for Alfredton was $370, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $300. Nationally, Alfredton's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Alfredton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 77.8% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 13.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.2%, with lone person households at 19.0% and group households comprising 3.2%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Alfredton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 29.8% among residents aged 15+, exceeding the Rest of Vic average of 21.7%. This rate is also higher than that of the SA4 region at 24.6%, indicating a strong emphasis on higher education in the community. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification, held by 19.0% of residents, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.9%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 33.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (22.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 33.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education. Alfredton has four schools with a combined enrollment of 1,707 students. These schools primarily focus on primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas due to limited local school capacity (8.2 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 18.0).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Alfredton has 43 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by two different routes that together facilitate 696 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as moderate, with residents living an average of 446 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 99 trips per day across both routes, which equates to roughly 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Alfredton's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Alfredton residents generally have positive health outcomes.

The prevalence of common health conditions among them is relatively low compared to the general population but higher than the national average for older and at-risk cohorts. Approximately 52% of Alfredton's total population (~10,837 people) has private health cover, slightly above the average SA2 area rate. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 9.6% and 9.4% of residents respectively. About 68.4% of Alfredton residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 62.3% across Rest of Vic.. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 12.4% (2,568 people), compared to the Rest of Vic.'s 17.8%. While health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those in the broader population, they present some challenges.

In terms of cultural diversity, Alfredton records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Alfredton's cultural diversity was comparable to the broader region, with 83.8% born in Australia, 89.7% citizens, and 86.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 46.3%. The 'Other' category was slightly overrepresented at 1.3%, compared to 1.0% regionally.

Top ancestral groups were English (28.8%), Australian (27.6%), and Irish (9.9%). Notably, Dutch (2.1%) and Indian (3.5%) groups were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 2.1% and 1.2%, respectively. Scottish representation was slightly lower at 8.6% versus the region's 9.2%.

Alfredton hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Alfredton has a median age of 34, which is lower than the Rest of Vic's figure of 43 and Australia's figure of 38 years. The 5-14 cohort is notably over-represented in Alfredton at 16.1%, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 7.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 12.4% to 13.9% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 14.6% to 15.7%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 7.8% to 7.0%. Demographic modeling suggests Alfredton's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to surge dramatically, expanding by 3,006 people (105%) from 2,874 to 5,881.