Alfredton

Alfredton lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Alfredton's population is around 20,881 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 4,046 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,835 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,851 from the ABS as of June 2025 and an additional 1,600 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 396 persons per square kilometer. Alfredton's 24.0% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of Vic. (4.3%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 69.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period, with the area expected to expand by 12,201 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 58.2% in total over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Alfredton was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Alfredton has averaged approximately 452 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 2,264 homes. As of FY-26197 approvals have been recorded. Each year, an average of 2.5 new residents is gained per dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, reflecting robust demand that supports property values. New homes are being constructed at an average cost of $275,000.

This financial year has seen $12.0 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Alfredton shows 121.0% higher new home approvals per person, offering greater choice for buyers despite a slowdown in building activity in recent years. The location's developer confidence is notably strong, with new development consisting predominantly of detached houses (98.0%) and a small proportion of attached dwellings (2.0%), preserving the area's low density nature while attracting space-seeking buyers. There are approximately 81 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Future projections estimate Alfredton to add 12,145 residents by 2041, with present construction rates appearing balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Future projections show Alfredton adding 12,145 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Present construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Alfredton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 33 projects likely impacting this area. Notable projects include Ballarat Private Hospital, Circular Economy Precinct, Shayne Reese Swimming Learn to Swim Facility, and Insignia Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Alfredton ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Alfredton has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.2%, lower than the regional average of 3.7%. Over the past year, employment stability has been relative.

As of December 2025, 10,917 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate at 1.5% below Regional Vic.'s rate and workforce participation at 69.2%, higher than Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. According to Census responses, 16.9% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Health care & social assistance is notably concentrated, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, accounting for only 1.5% of Alfredton's workforce compared to Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. The area seems to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Between December 2024 and December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.5%, while employment declined by 0.4%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points. Comparatively, Regional Vic. experienced a 0.6% employment decline and a 0.7% labour force decline over the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia for May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Alfredton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though these estimates are illustrative extrapolations based on national industry-specific growth rates.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

Alfredton SA2's median income among taxpayers was $54,417 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $69,239 during the same period. These figures are higher than those for Regional Vic., which had a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. By March 2026, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth suggest that Alfredton's median income will be approximately $59,652 and the average income will reach around $75,900. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Alfredton cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. In this area, 35.7% of individuals (7,454 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the surrounding region where 30.3% occupy this bracket. After housing expenses, 86.2% of income remains for other expenditures. Alfredton's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Alfredton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Alfredton, as per the latest Census, 92.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 7.3% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Alfredton stood at 29.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.6% and rented ones at 28.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,698, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Alfredton was $370, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Alfredton's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Alfredton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.8% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 13.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.2%, with lone person households at 19.0% and group households comprising 3.2%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Alfredton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 29.8%, higher than the Rest of Vic average of 21.7% and the SA4 region's 24.6%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 19.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.9%). Vocational credentials held by residents aged 15+ stand at 33.4%, with advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 22.5%. Educational participation is high, with 33.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.1% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Alfredton has 43 active public transport stops serviced by two routes, offering 622 weekly passenger trips. Residents have moderate accessibility to these stops, typically located 446 meters away. The area is primarily residential with outward commuting patterns, where cars remain the dominant mode at 96%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 16.9% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 88 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Service frequency averages 88 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Alfredton's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis shows Alfredton performed well in health metrics, with AreaSearch assessing mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence as low among the general population but higher than national averages for older, at-risk cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 54% of Alfredton's total population (~11,254 people), leading the average SA2 area rate of 50.5%.

Mental health issues and asthma were the most common medical conditions, affecting 9.6% and 9.4% respectively, while 68.4% reported no medical ailments compared to Regional Vic.'s 63.4%. Working-age population health outcomes are typical. Seniors make up 12.9% of Alfredton's residents (2,691 people), lower than Regional Vic.'s 23.9%. Senior health outcomes present challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Alfredton records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Alfredton's cultural diversity aligns with its wider region, with 83.8% born in Australia, 89.7% being citizens, and 86.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 46.3%. The 'Other' category is overrepresented at 1.3%, compared to Regional Vic's 0.8%.

Top ancestry groups are English (28.8%), Australian (27.6%), and Irish (9.9%). Dutch (2.1%) and Indian (3.5%) are notably overrepresented, while Scottish representation is similar (8.6% vs regional 8.8%).

Alfredton hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Alfredton has a median age of 34, which is lower than the Regional Vic. figure of 43 and Australia's median age of 38. The 5-14 cohort is over-represented at 16.1% compared to the Regional Vic. average, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 7.3%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 14.6% to 15.9%, while the 55-64 cohort has declined from 9.4% to 8.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant growth in the 25-34 age cohort, with an increase of 2,674 people (from 2,793 to 5,468).