Ballarat East - Warrenheip
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Ballarat East - Warrenheip are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Aug '25, Ballarat East - Warrenheip's population is approximately 9,944, reflecting a 2.6% increase since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 9,691. This growth was inferred from ABS' Jun '24 estimated resident population of 9,741 and validated new addresses since the Census date. The area's population density is around 517 persons per square kilometer. Ballarat East - Warrenheip's growth rate of 2.6% since census compares favorably with non-metro areas at 5.5%. Overseas migration primarily drove this growth. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for SA2 areas, released in '24 with a base year of '22.

For uncovers areas, they use VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from '23, adjusting with weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas until 2041. By '41, Ballarat East - Warrenheip is projected to increase by 26.2% in total population, adding around 2,833 persons.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ballarat East - Warrenheip recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Ballarat East - Warrenheip has seen approximately 54 dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reports that between financial years FY21 to FY25, around 270 approvals were recorded, with 7 more approved in FY26 so far. Over these five years, an average of 0.3 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built. This suggests new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing buyers with more options and potentially increasing population growth beyond current predictions.

The average expected construction cost per dwelling over this period was $536,000, which is moderately higher than regional averages, indicating a focus on quality construction. In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $9.6 million, showing moderate levels of commercial activity in the area. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Ballarat East - Warrenheip has significantly less development activity, approximately 54.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings.

Recent construction comprises 84.0% standalone homes and 16.0% medium to high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes that appeal to those seeking space. The location has around 229 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market. Looking forward, Ballarat East - Warrenheip is projected to grow by approximately 2,606 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the future.

Ballarat East - Warrenheip has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

A total of 42 projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area significantly. These include major developments such as The Meadows on Eureka Estate, Brown Hill Recreation Reserve Masterplan and Stage 1 Splash Park, Eastwood Community Hub, and Equinox Ballarat Lifestyle Village Expansion.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The employment landscape in Ballarat East - Warrenheip shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Ballarat East - Warrenheip has a skilled workforce with high representation in essential services. The unemployment rate was 5.1% as of June 2024, with an estimated employment growth of 7.4% over the past year.

As of June 2025, there are 4,616 residents employed, while the unemployment rate is 4.1%, which is 1.3% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Ballarat East - Warrenheip is similar to Rest of Vic., at 57.4%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 1.3% of the workforce compared to 7.5% in Rest of Vic.. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 7.4%, while labour force increased by 6.8%, causing a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.9% and a labour force decline of 0.4%. State-level data to Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ballarat East - Warrenheip's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Income data for Ballarat East - Warrenheip from AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO figures for financial year 2022 shows median income at $51,678 and average income at $66,358. This is higher than the Rest of Vic.'s median income of $48,741 and average income of $60,693. Considering Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $56,903 (median) and $73,067 (average). Census data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Ballarat East - Warrenheip fall between the 14th and 23rd percentiles nationally. Income brackets reveal that 29.2% of locals (2,903 people) predominantly earn within the $800 - $1,499 range, unlike metropolitan trends where 30.3% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 15th percentile.

Ballarat East - Warrenheip is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ballarat East - Warrenheip, as per the latest Census, had 87.1% houses and 12.8% other dwellings. Non-Metro Vic., meanwhile, had 85.6% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ballarat East - Warrenheip was 32.9%, with mortgages at 28.7% and rentals at 38.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,499. Median weekly rent was $288, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $300. Nationally, Ballarat East - Warrenheip's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ballarat East - Warrenheip features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 58.2% of all households, including 19.5% couples with children, 25.2% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 41.8%, with lone person households at 36.8% and group households comprising 5.0%. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Ballarat East - Warrenheip aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

In Ballarat East - Warrenheip region, 25.6% of residents aged 15+ possess university degrees, compared to Victoria's 33.4%. The most common degree is bachelor's at 16.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 35.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (24.8%). Education participation is high at 26.5%, including primary (8.6%), secondary (6.0%), and tertiary (5.4%) levels.

Six schools operate in Ballarat East - Warrenheip, educating approximately 1,512 students. The region has balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 1009). Four primary and two secondary schools serve distinct age groups. Note: for schools with 'n/a' enrolments, refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ballarat East - Warrenheip has 59 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 17 different routes that together facilitate 3,002 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents on average located 255 meters from the nearest stop.

The daily service frequency across all routes averages 428 trips, resulting in approximately 50 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ballarat East - Warrenheip is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Ballarat East - Warrenheip faces significant health challenges, affecting both younger and older age groups.

The private health cover rate stands at approximately 52%, higher than the average SA2 area (~5,210 people). Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, impacting 12.8% and 10.2% of residents respectively. 57.1% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 62.3% in Rest of Vic.. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.6%, with 2,150 people falling into this age bracket, compared to the 17.8% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors largely align with those of the general population.

Ballarat East - Warrenheip is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Ballarat East-Warrenheip had below average cultural diversity, with 90.3% being citizens, 89.1% born in Australia, and 94.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 44.0%. The 'Other' category was slightly overrepresented at 1.1%, compared to 1.0% regionally.

Top ancestry groups were English (31.0%), Australian (28.2%), and Irish (12.3%). Dutch, Scottish, and German ancestry showed notable divergences: Dutch at 2.1% locally vs 2.1% regionally, Scottish at 9.0% vs 9.2%, and German at 3.4% vs 3.2%.

Ballarat East - Warrenheip's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Ballarat East - Warrenheip is 40 years, which is slightly below Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and slightly above Australia's median of 38. The percentage of the population aged 25-34 is notably higher at 16.9% compared to Rest of Vic.'s average, while those aged 5-14 are under-represented at 10.1%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 25-34 age group has increased from 14.7% to 16.9%, the 35-44 cohort has risen from 12.2% to 13.3%, and the 15-24 cohort has decreased from 10.8% to 9.9%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Ballarat East - Warrenheip. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow substantially, increasing by 926 people (55%) from 1,684 to 2,611. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort is projected to decrease by 92 people.