Ballarat

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ballarat reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ballarat's population was around 11,795 as of November 2025. This reflected a decrease of 336 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,131 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,797 in June 2024 and an additional 51 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 952 persons per square kilometer, which was relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilised the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics projected an above median growth for locations outside capital cities, with Ballarat expected to expand by 2,260 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 19.0% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ballarat according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ballarat has recorded approximately 38 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25192 homes were approved, with an additional 30 approved so far in FY-26. Despite a declining population over recent years, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a well-balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $350,000. This year, there have been $65.7 million in commercial approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum compared to the rest of Victoria. However, Ballarat has significantly less development activity than the regional average per person, with 74.0% fewer approvals. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New development consists of 44.0% detached dwellings and 56.0% medium and high-density housing, reflecting a shift from the current housing mix of 80.0% houses. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 449 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Ballarat's population is forecasted to grow by 2,238 residents through to 2041.

If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Ballarat has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 29 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Ballarat Base Hospital Redevelopment, Federation University SMB Campus Redevelopment, Ballarat Co-Operative Education and Skills City Centre, and Albert Street Social Housing Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Ballarat has been broadly consistent with national averages

Ballarat has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.3%, lower than the national average.

In the past year, employment growth was estimated at 1.5%. As of September 2025, 6,017 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.5% below the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is similar to the regional average at 57.4%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and accommodation & food.

Notably, Ballarat specializes in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 1.5% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The area functions as an employment hub with 1.7 workers per resident, attracting workers from surrounding regions. Between September 2024 and 2025, employment levels increased by 1.5%, and the labour force grew by 1.1%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced employment decline of 0.7% and unemployment rose marginally. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment growth of 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ballarat's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 7.2% over five years and 14.9% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations and do not account for localized population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Ballarat SA2 is $50,745 and average income is $64,925. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s median income of $48,741 and average income of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes are approximately $56,916 (median) and $72,820 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, personal income ranks at the 57th percentile ($842 weekly), while household income is at the 39th percentile. Distribution data shows 27.9% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week (3,290 individuals). Housing costs allow for retention of 86.9% of income, but disposable income ranks below average at the 43rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ballarat is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Ballarat, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.5% houses and 20.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 85.6% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ballarat stood at 40.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.3% and rented dwellings at 34.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ballarat was $1,700, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,499. The median weekly rent figure for Ballarat was $313, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $300. Nationally, Ballarat's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ballarat features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 60.2% of all households, including 22.8% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 39.8%, with lone person households at 35.3% and group households comprising 4.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Ballarat exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Ballarat's educational attainment is notably high, with 40.6% of residents aged 15+ having university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in the rest of Victoria and 24.6% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 24.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.4%) and graduate diplomas (5.8%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 27.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas account for 11.1% and certificates for 16.3%. Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in secondary education, 7.8% in primary education, and 7.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in secondary education, 7.8% in primary education, and 7.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ballarat has 104 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These are served by 24 different routes that together facilitate 3,347 weekly passenger trips. The city's transport accessibility is considered good, with residents on average being located 216 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 478 trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 32 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ballarat is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ballarat faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~6,121 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues impact 10.2% of residents, while arthritis affects 8.9%. A total of 63.5% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.3% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 22.8% of residents aged 65 and over (2,684 people), higher than the 17.8% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Ballarat ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ballarat's population was found to be less diverse culturally, with 86.0% born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 91.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, making up 48.8% of Ballarat's population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to 0.1% across the rest of Victoria.

The top three ancestry groups are English (29.5%), Australian (25.1%), and Irish (13.9%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Scottish (10.3% vs regional 9.2%), Dutch (1.8% vs 2.1%), and Welsh (0.6% vs 0.5%) are overrepresented in Ballarat.

Ballarat hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Ballarat's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Ballarat has a higher percentage of residents aged 15-24 (13.7%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (10.1%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 11.0% to 11.9%. Conversely, the population aged 45-54 has declined from 13.7% to 12.4%. By 2041, Ballarat's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 70%, reaching 2,362 people from 1,387. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort is projected to decline by 66 people.