Ballarat
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ballarat reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ballarat's population was 12,131 at the time of the 2021 Census. As of November 2025, it is estimated to be around 11,795, a decrease of 336 people (2.8%). This decrease is inferred from ABS estimates: Ballarat's population was 11,797 in June 2024 and there were 51 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density as of November 2025 is approximately 952 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration primarily drove recent population growth in Ballarat.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics project an above median growth for locations outside capital cities; Ballarat is expected to expand by 2,260 persons by 2041, a 19.0% increase over the 17-year period based on latest numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ballarat according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ballarat approved around 38 residential properties annually. From FY-21 to FY-25192 homes were approved, with 30 granted in FY-26 so far. The population has declined recently, but housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $350,000. This financial year, there have been $65.7 million in commercial approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Ballarat has significantly less development activity, 74.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Nationally, development activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 44.0% detached dwellings and 56.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 80.0% houses.

The estimated count of 449 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet development environment. Population forecasts indicate Ballarat will gain 2,238 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Ballarat has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 29 projects likely to affect this region. Notable initiatives include the Ballarat Base Hospital Redevelopment, Federation University SMB Campus Redevelopment, Albert Street Social Housing Development, and Ballarat Co-Operative Education and Skills City Centre. The following list details projects most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Ballarat exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Ballarat's workforce is well-educated with a low unemployment rate of 3.0%. The area has seen an estimated employment growth of 7.2% in the past year.

As of June 2025, 6140 residents are employed and the unemployment rate stands at 0.8%, which is below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and accommodation & food. Ballarat has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 1.5% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The area functions as an employment hub with 1.7 workers per resident, attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 7.2%, labour force grew by 6.7%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate of 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.9% with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) suggest Ballarat's employment could grow by approximately 7.2% over five years and 14.9% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Ballarat's current employment mix.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows median income in Ballarat was $50,745 and average income was $64,925. This compares to Rest of Vic.'s median income of $48,741 and average income of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from financial year ending June 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income in Ballarat would be approximately $56,916 and average income would be around $72,820. According to the 2021 Census, personal income ranks at the 58th percentile ($842 weekly) and household income is at the 40th percentile. Income distribution shows 27.9% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999 annually (3,290 individuals), aligning with broader regional trends of 30.3%. Housing costs allow for retention of 86.9%, but disposable income ranks below average at the 44th percentile. Ballarat's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ballarat is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Ballarat, as per the latest Census evaluation, 79.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 20.5% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This distribution differs from Non-Metro Vic., where 85.6% of dwellings are houses and 14.5% are other types. Home ownership in Ballarat stood at 40.5%, with mortgaged properties at 25.3% and rented dwellings at 34.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,700, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,499. The median weekly rent in Ballarat was $313, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $300. Nationally, Ballarat's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ballarat features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 60.2% of all households, including 22.8% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 39.8%, with lone person households at 35.3% and group households comprising 4.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Ballarat exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Ballarat is notable with 40.6% of residents aged 15+ having university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in the rest of Victoria and 24.6% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 24.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.4%) and graduate diplomas (5.8%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 27.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.1% and certificates at 16.3%. Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in secondary education, 7.8% in primary education, and 7.3% pursuing tertiary education.

There are 13 schools serving 7,084 students in the area, which demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1057). The educational mix includes 4 primary, 6 secondary, and 3 K-12 schools. Ballarat functions as an education hub with 60.0 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 18.0, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of Ballarat's public transport system shows that there are 104 active transport stops operating within the city. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 24 individual routes in operation. Collectively, these routes provide 3,347 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 216 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, there are 478 trips per day across all routes, which equates to about 32 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ballarat is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ballarat faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52%, leading that of the average SA2 area (~6,121 people). Mental health issues impact 10.2% of residents, while arthritis affects 8.9%. About 63.5% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.3% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 22.8% of residents aged 65 and over (2,684 people), higher than the 17.8% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Ballarat ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ballarat's population showed lower-than-average cultural diversity, with 86.0% born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 91.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 48.8%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to 0.1% regionally.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (29.5%), Australian (25.1%), and Irish (13.9%). Notable divergences included Scottish (overrepresented at 10.3%), Dutch (underrepresented at 1.8%), and Welsh (slightly overrepresented at 0.6%).

Ballarat hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Ballarat's median age of 44 years is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and well above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Ballarat has a higher percentage of residents aged 15-24 (13.7%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (10.1%). Between 2021 Census and now, the population aged 35-44 has increased from 11.0% to 11.9%. Conversely, the population aged 45-54 has decreased from 13.7% to 12.4%. By 2041, Ballarat's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 70%, reaching 2,362 people from the current 1,387. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort is expected to decline by 66 people.