Ballarat
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ballarat reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ballarat's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 11,809, a decrease of 322 people from the 2021 Census figure of 12,131. This decline was inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses between June 2024 and the Census date. The population density in Ballarat is around 953 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration primarily drove recent population growth. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for SA2 areas, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For uncovers areas, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made through weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Ballarat is projected to gain 2,260 persons, an increase of 18.8% from current numbers, based on the latest population statistics and anticipating above median growth in non-capital city locations.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ballarat according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ballarat has recorded approximately 38 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 192 homes have been approved annually. In the current financial year, up to FY26, one property has been approved so far.

Despite population decline in the area, development activity has been adequate relative to other regions, which is positive for buyers. The average value of new dwellings being developed is $666,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This year alone, $65.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, showing high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Ballarat has significantly less development activity, 74.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. This activity is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 44.0% detached dwellings and 56.0% medium to high-density housing.

This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points, suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is currently 80.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated population per dwelling approval in Ballarat is 449 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts suggest Ballarat will gain approximately 2,224 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Ballarat has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 31 such projects that could potentially impact the area. Notable projects include the Ballarat Base Hospital Redevelopment, Federation University SMB Campus Redevelopment, Albert Street Social Housing Development, and Ballarat Co-Operative Education and Skills City Centre. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Ballarat exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Ballarat has a well-educated workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.0%, with an estimated employment growth of 7.2% over the past year.

As of June 2025, 6,140 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.8% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and accommodation & food. Ballarat has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 1.5% of Ballarat's workforce compared to 7.5% in Rest of Vic.. There are 1.7 workers for every resident, indicating that the area functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 7.2% and labour force increased by 6.7%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.9%, labour force decline of 0.4%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year (adding 39,880 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that Ballarat's employment could grow by approximately 7.2% over five years and 14.9% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows Ballarat's median income was $50,745 and average income was $64,925. This is comparable to national averages but higher than Rest of Vic.'s median ($48,741) and average ($60,693). By March 2025, estimates suggest Ballarat's median income will be approximately $55,875 and average income $71,489, based on a 10.11% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census ranks personal income at the 58th percentile ($842 weekly) and household income at the 40th percentile in Ballarat. Income distribution shows 27.9% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999 annually. Housing costs are manageable with 86.9% retained, but disposable income ranks below average at the 44th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ballarat is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Ballarat, as per the latest Census, 79.5% of dwellings were houses while 20.5% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s figures of 85.6% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ballarat stood at 40.5%, with mortgaged properties making up 25.3% and rented dwellings comprising 34.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,700, exceeding Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,499. Weekly rent in Ballarat averaged $313, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $300. Nationally, Ballarat's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ballarat features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 60.2% of all households, including 22.8% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 39.8%, with lone person households at 35.3% and group households comprising 4.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Ballarat exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Ballarat is notably high, with 40.6% of residents aged 15 years and over holding university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in the rest of Victoria and 24.6% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 24.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.4%) and graduate diplomas (5.8%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 27.4% of residents aged 15 years and over holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 11.1% and certificates for 16.3%. Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in secondary education, 7.8% in primary education, and 7.3% pursuing tertiary education.

There are 13 schools serving 7,084 students in Ballarat, which has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1057). The educational mix includes 4 primary, 6 secondary, and 3 K-12 schools. Ballarat functions as an education hub with 60.0 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 18.0, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis found 104 active public transport stops in Ballarat, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 24 different routes, together offering 3,347 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of the transport is rated as good, with residents usually located 216 meters from their nearest stop.

On average, there are 478 trips per day across all routes, which equates to about 32 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ballarat is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ballarat faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~6,128 people), leading that of the average SA2 area. Mental health issues impact 10.2% of residents, while arthritis affects 8.9%. Approximately 63.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.3% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 22.8% of residents aged 65 and over (2,687 people), higher than the 17.8% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Ballarat ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ballarat has a cultural diversity below the average, with 86.0% of its population born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 91.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Ballarat, comprising 48.8% of its population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented in Ballarat at 0.2%, compared to 0.1% across the rest of Victoria.

The top three ancestry groups based on parents' country of birth are English (29.5%), Australian (25.1%), and Irish (13.9%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Scottish is overrepresented at 10.3%, Dutch at 1.8%, and Welsh at 0.6%.

Ballarat hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Ballarat's median age of 44 years is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and well above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Ballarat has a higher percentage of residents aged 15-24 at 13.7%, but fewer residents aged 5-14 at 10.1%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 11.0% to 11.9%. Conversely, the population aged 45-54 has declined from 13.7% to 12.4%. By 2041, Ballarat's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 70%, reaching 2,362 people from the current 1,388. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort is projected to decline by 68 people.