Smythes Creek
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Smythes Creek are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Smythes Creek's population was approximately 4,230 people according to the 2021 Census. By November 2025, it had increased to around 4,293, a rise of 63 individuals (1.5%). This growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 4,278 in June 2024 and the addition of 30 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was approximately 41 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed about 50.9% to recent population gains, with other factors such as interstate migration also being positive influences.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 for each SA2 area, based on a 2022 dataset. For areas not covered by this data, it employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Age group growth rates are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends indicate a significant increase in the top quartile of national non-metropolitan areas, with Smythes Creek expected to grow by 1,241 persons by 2041, representing a total gain of 28.6% over 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Smythes Creek, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Smythes Creek has averaged approximately 18 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 93 homes. As of FY26, 2 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.8 new residents were associated with each dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25. However, this figure has increased to 4.6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing demand and tightening supply. The average expected construction cost of new homes is $309,000.

In contrast, commercial approvals have reached $396,000 in FY26, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Smythes Creek has significantly less development activity, with 63.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction often reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Recent building activity consists solely of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low density character and appealing to those seeking space and family homes.

The estimated population count is 733 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment. Looking ahead, Smythes Creek is projected to grow by 1,226 residents by 2041. If current development rates persist, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Smythes Creek has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 41 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Delacombe Town Centre Stage 2 Expansion, Ballarat Link Road Stages 2 and 3, Winter Valley Rise Estate, and Alluvium Winter Valley Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market strength in Smythes Creek positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Smythes Creek has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate in the area was 2.3% as of June 2025.

This is lower than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 6.8%. As of June 2025, 2,396 residents were in work and workforce participation was 68.9%, higher than the Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Major employment sectors for residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing.

Smythes Creek has a particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 2.6% versus the regional average of 7.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 6.8%, labour force increased by 6.9%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.9%, the labour force fell by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that over five years, national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% and over ten years by 13.7%. Applying these projections to Smythes Creek's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Smythes Creek's median income among taxpayers was $49,222, with an average of $58,353. This is below the national average. Rest of Vic.'s median was $48,741 and average was $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates are approximately $55,207 (median) and $65,449 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household income ranks at the 70th percentile ($2,065 weekly), while personal income sits at the 50th percentile. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 37.9% of the community (1,627 individuals), mirroring regional levels where 30.3% occupy this bracket. After housing costs, residents retain 88.5% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Smythes Creek is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Smythes Creek, as per the latest Census evaluation, all dwellings were houses with none being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro Vic., which had 85.6% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Smythes Creek was at 40.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 55.9% and rented ones at 4.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,499. Median weekly rent in Smythes Creek was $350, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $300. Nationally, Smythes Creek's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,733 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $350 compared to the national figure of $375.

Smythes Creek features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.2% of all households, including 45.9% couples with children, 30.0% couples without children, and 7.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 15.8%, with lone person households at 14.2% and group households at 1.6%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Smythes Creek aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.9%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (30.4%). Educational participation is high, with 30.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 11.2% in primary, 10.3% in secondary, and 2.8% in tertiary education.

Woady Yaloak Primary School-Ross Creek Campus and Haddon Primary School serve 236 students collectively, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1022). Both schools focus on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. Local school capacity is limited at 5.5 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 18.0, leading many families to travel for schooling. Note that 'n/a' in school enrolments refers to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows three active stops in Smythes Creek served by a mix of buses. These stops are covered by four routes offering 12 weekly passenger trips collectively. Transport access is rated limited with residents typically located 2341 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages one trip per day across all routes, resulting in approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Smythes Creek are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Smythes Creek shows below-average health indicators with common conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% (2,099 people), compared to Rest of Vic.'s 50.9%. Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

The most common conditions are arthritis (9.2%) and asthma (8.9%), while 67.9% report no medical ailments, compared to 62.3% in Rest of Vic.. The area has 16.3% residents aged 65 and over (700 people), lower than Rest of Vic.'s 17.8%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Smythes Creek placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Smythes Creek had a cultural diversity level below average, with 92.0% of its population born in Australia, 95.2% being citizens, and 97.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 46.7% of Smythes Creek's population, compared to 45.0% across Rest of Vic.. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.0%), Australian (31.0%), and Irish (10.0%).

Notably, Dutch representation was higher than average at 2.7%, Scottish at 9.6%, and Maltese at 1.2%.

Smythes Creek's median age exceeds the national pattern

Smythe's Creek has a median age of 41 years, which is lower than Victoria's average of 43 but higher than Australia's national average of 38. The 15-24 age group makes up 14.4% of the population, compared to Victoria's rest-of-state average, while the 75-84 cohort represents 3.9%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group grew from 13.2% to 14.4%, and the 65-74 cohort increased from 10.2% to 11.3%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 16.2% to 13.9%, and the 5-14 group decreased from 15.8% to 14.7%. Demographic projections suggest that Smythe's Creek's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 25-34 cohort expected to grow by 64%, adding 221 residents to reach a total of 569.