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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Smythes Creek has an estimated 4,265 residents, up from 4,230 at the 2021 Census. Growth has averaged 0.5% a year over five years, slower than 87% of areas nationally. Density is about 41 people per square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
Demographic assessments by AreaSearch estimate the population of Smythes Creek at approximately 4,265 as of Aug 2026, marking an expansion of 35 people (0.8%) from the 4,230 people documented in the 2021 Census. This calculation incorporates the ABS estimated resident population of 4,250 as of June 2025 alongside 34 validated new addresses confirmed following the Census. Consequently, population density stands at 40 persons per square kilometer, ensuring a spacious residential setting. Most of the recent population growth stems from natural increase, which generated roughly 88.7% of total population additions over recent intervals.
Projections published in 2024 (using 2022 as the base year) by ABS/Geoscience Australia are utilized by AreaSearch across SA2 boundaries, supplemented where necessary by 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA projections converted via weighted growth aggregation from LGA to SA2 geographies. In addition, age-cohort growth trajectories derived from these models extend across all territories between 2032 and 2041. Based on anticipated demographic patterns, Smythes Creek ranks within the upper quartile for regional population expansion nationally, with the latest annual ERP figures projecting an influx of 1,203 persons by 2041, representing a cumulative increase of 27.9% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
57 new dwellings have been approved in Smythes Creek over the past five years, an average of 11 a year. That is 2.7 approvals per 1,000 residents. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Residential building approvals in Smythes Creek have tracked at an annual average of roughly 11 new dwellings, accumulating to 57 homes throughout the past 5 financial years. Across the 5 financial years from FY-22 to FY-26, the area added an average of 1.7 new residents annually per approved dwelling, pointing to balanced market conditions, with the metric shifting to -1.1 people per dwelling over the last 2 financial years to reinforce supply equilibrium. Residential builds carry an average expected construction cost of $604,000, underscoring developer emphasis on higher-end builds, alongside $396,000 in approved commercial works during the current financial year reflecting subdued non-residential building activity.
Compared with Rest of Vic., building activity across Smythes Creek is substantially subdued, sitting 74.0% below the regional per-capita baseline. Such constrained additions to the housing stock tend to bolster valuation and demand for established dwellings, while matching below-national figures that highlight the locality's mature footprint and potential planning constraints. All recent approvals have been for detached houses, preserving the neighborhood's low-density profile suited to households prioritizing space, while an estimated 640 people per approved dwelling underlines a quiet construction environment. According to the latest quarterly estimates from AreaSearch, demographic forecasts anticipate Smythes Creek expanding by 1,188 residents up to 2041. Should building volumes persist at current speeds, residential supply risks lagging population expansion, which could heighten buyer competition and reinforce upward pressure on local property values.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Smythes Creek
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks one current infrastructure or development project inside Smythes Creek, worth an estimated $32 million. A further 93 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $6.43 billion. 26 are already under construction and 34 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and sports & recreation. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Major infrastructure developments, planning proposals, and community projects play a critical role in guiding neighborhood evolution. AreaSearch has highlighted 40 projects positioned to influence the area, notably the Delacombe Town Centre Stage 2 Expansion, Winter Valley Rise Estate, Alluvium Winter Valley Estate, and Winterfield Estate.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Delacombe Town Centre Stage 2 Expansion
Stage 2 delivers a 10,593 sqm large-format retail precinct adjoining the existing Delacombe Town Centre, with new tenants including Planet Fitness, Hungry Jacks, Rebel Sport and The Reject Shop, plus additional car parking. The expansion complements the centre anchored by Kmart, Woolworths, Dan Murphys and Showbiz Cinemas. Owned by Region Group; delivery led with H. Troon as builder.
Winter Valley Community Centre (Proposed)
Proposed community centre to be built next to primary school with kindergarten spaces as part of Winter Valley activity centre. Will provide essential community services and early childhood education facilities for the growing population in the Ballarat West Growth Zone.
Winter Valley Sports Precinct
Development of a masterplanned active open space and community recreation facility in Winter Valley[cite: 1]. The scope includes a multi-sport community pavilion, two Australian Rules football and cricket ovals, two netball courts, floodlighting, playspace amenities, and designated land reserved for a future indoor sports stadium[cite: 1]. The facility is designed to service the expanding residential population across the Ballarat West Growth Zone[cite: 1].
Winter Valley Primary School (Proposed)
Land is earmarked on Greenhalghs Road, Winter Valley for a future government primary school, alongside a proposed secondary school, as part of the Ballarat West Precinct Structure Plan approved in 2012. The site is intended to include kindergarten spaces as part of the government's pre-prep rollout, and sits within a broader package of six new schools planned for the Ballarat west growth zone to serve around 8800 new homes. As of early 2026, the Victorian Government has confirmed the need for the school sites in principle but has not committed funding or a construction timeline, with local reporting noting there are no current plans to use the site.A neighbouring Catholic primary school on Greenhalghs Road is separately funded and due to open in 2028.
Delacombe Village
Delacombe Village represents the third stage of the Delacombe Town Centre (DTC) precinct, adding over 7,000 sqm of retail space to the western Ballarat growth corridor. The development is anchored by major supermarkets Coles and ALDI, supported by 15 specialty tenancies focused on food and beverage, health, and fashion. Key features include a 98-place childcare centre, expansive grassy areas, outdoor seating, and external cafes. The project serves as a critical retail hub for the rapidly expanding residential catchments of Delacombe, Alfredton, and Smythes Creek.
Delacombe Village (Stage 3 - Delacombe Town Centre)
Delacombe Village is the third stage expansion of the Delacombe Town Centre precinct. This retail hub delivers over 7,000sqm of new retail space, anchored by full-line Coles and ALDI supermarkets. The development includes approximately 15 specialty retail tenancies and a 98-place childcare centre. Strategically located in the Ballarat West growth corridor, it serves a rapidly expanding catchment projected to exceed 150,000 residents within the next decade.
Winter Valley Rise
Seven-stage residential development encompassing 359 lots in Ballarat's West Growth Zone. Features balanced streetscapes linking to expansive open nature reserve, wetlands, children's playspace, ball courts, walking paths and recreational facilities. All lots include full services, NBN connectivity, and extensive community amenities.
Winter Valley P-12 School
Proposed government P-12 school identified in the Ballarat West Growth Area Precinct Structure Plan to service the rapidly growing Winter Valley and Delacombe communities. The City of Ballarat continues to advocate for Victorian Government funding and delivery. As of February 2026 the project remains unfunded with ongoing advocacy and no construction commencement announced.
2,455 residents of Smythes Creek are employed, from a labour force of 2,511. Unemployment sits at 2.2%, with participation at 71.7%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.4% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 3,272, about 77% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local labor market in Smythes Creek features a qualified workforce with strong participation in essential services, sustained employment conditions over the preceding year, and an unemployment rate of merely 2.2%. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 2,455, while the jobless rate was 1.5% beneath the 3.7% recorded across Regional Vic., and the local participation rate reached an elevated 71.7% compared with 61.1% regionally. In addition, 16.0% of local workers reported working from home during the Census, a figure potentially influenced by Covid-19 restrictions. Resident employment centers primarily around construction, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing.
Construction shows particularly high local representation, employing workers at 1.5 times the regional norm. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing accounts for only 2.6% of the workforce, trailing the 7.5% share observed in Regional Vic.. The predominantly residential character of the locality provides relatively few jobs within its borders, as evidenced by the disparity between working and resident counts in Census records. AreaSearch evaluations of ABS and SALM figures show that during the 12 months leading to March 2026, local employment saw no net increase while the labor force expanded by 0.4%, lifting the local unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. Over the same timeframe, Regional Vic. saw employment fall 0.1% and the labor force shrink 0.3%, with unemployment decreasing 0.2 percentage points. Five- and ten-year national labor projections from Jobs and Skills Australia as of Mar-26 provide additional context regarding future workforce requirements. Nationally, employment is projected to rise 6.6% across five years and 13.7% over ten years, though industry variations exist. Extrapolating these industry trends against Smythes Creek's occupational profile indicates prospective local employment growth of 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, representing an illustrative weighted calculation that excludes localized demographic projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Smythes Creek is $2,065 a week (about $107,000 a year), with median personal income at $802 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $50,845 a year against an average of $61,720. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Aggregated ATO statistics compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023 position taxpayer earnings in Smythes Creek SA2 beneath nationwide averages. Taxpayers recorded a median income of $50,845 alongside an average income of $61,720, compared with $50,954 and $62,728 across Regional Vic.. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023 yields updated estimates of approximately $55,736 for median income and $67,657 for average income as of March 2026. The 2021 Census placed weekly household earnings ($2,065) at the 69th percentile and individual income at the 49th percentile.
Earnings between $1,500 - 2,999 encompass 37.9% of local earners (1,616 individuals), closely aligning with the 30.3% share across the broader metropolitan area. With residents retaining 88.5% of their income after housing expenses, purchasing power remains solid, and the locality sits in the 5th decile of the SEIFA income index.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Smythes Creek had 1,395 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 100% detached houses and 0% apartments. 56% are owned with a mortgage, 4% rented and 40% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $350 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,733 a month. Rent absorbs 16.9% of household income here and mortgage repayments 19.4%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to findings from the most recent Census, the local housing stock consisted of 100.0% separate houses with no other dwellings, such as semi-detached homes, units, or apartments, in contrast to Regional Vic. where houses comprised 90.1% and other dwelling types accounted for 9.9%. Fully owned homes represented 40.0% of properties, mirroring the Regional Vic. level, while mortgaged properties made up 55.9% and rental homes accounted for 4.1%. Median monthly mortgage commitments stood at $1,733, exceeding the Regional Vic. benchmark of $1,430, whereas median weekly rents were $350 compared to $285 regionally.
On a nationwide scale, Smythes Creek maintains lower mortgage payments than the Australian average of $1,863 and lower rents than the national standard of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Smythes Creek counted 1,395 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 3.0 people each. 46% are couples with children, more than in 90% of areas nationally, against 30% couples without children. 14% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.9 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families constitute the vast majority of local living arrangements at 84.2% of all households, consisting of couples with children at 45.9%, couples without children at 30.0%, and single parent families at 7.2%. Non-family setups make up the remaining 15.8%, divided between single-person dwellings at 14.2% and group living arrangements at 1.6%. The typical household size is 3.0 people, exceeding the Regional Vic. median of 2.4.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
18.9% of adults in Smythes Creek hold a university qualification, including 12.8% with a bachelor degree and 2.8% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 30.4% hold a vocational qualification. 2 schools serve the area, with 236 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,022 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Higher education rates in the area present development opportunities, with 18.9% of residents possessing university qualifications compared to the broader VIC benchmark of 33.4%. Higher education credentials include bachelor degrees held by 12.8% of the community, graduate diplomas by 3.3%, and postgraduate degrees by 2.8%. Vocational education is strongly represented, with 41.3% of individuals aged 15+ holding technical credentials, comprising certificates for 30.4% and advanced diplomas for 10.9%. Engagement in formal learning is substantial across the community, with 30.0% of residents actively participating in study. Enrolments are distributed across primary education at 11.2%, secondary schooling at 10.3%, and tertiary courses at 2.8%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Getting around Smythes Creek means driving: households keep an average of 2.5 vehicles, and scheduled services reach only a handful of stops. Service data is built from operators' published GTFS timetables; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
An assessment of public transit infrastructure identifies 3 active transit stops within Smythes Creek, connected across 2 separate routes that deliver a total of 9 weekly passenger trips. Transit access is comparatively constrained, with inhabitants living an average of 2341 meters from the nearest stop. Due to the area's residential composition, commuting is predominantly outward-focused, with private vehicles accounting for 98% of journeys and vehicle ownership averaging 2.5 per household, exceeding the regional average. Furthermore, 16.0% of residents recorded working from home in the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-era circumstances.
Transit service frequency across all available routes averages 1 trips per day, translating to roughly 3 weekly trips at each stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
67.9% of residents in Smythes Creek report no long-term health condition. 4.8% need daily assistance with core activities, and 49.8% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.3 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health indicators across Smythes Creek align closely with nationwide figures regarding chronic illness and mortality, demonstrating consistent levels of general conditions across younger and older demographics, while private health insurance uptake covers approximately 50% of residents (~2,123 people), below the national benchmark of 55.7%. Arthritis and asthma represent the most widespread medical conditions locally, diagnosed in 9.2 and 8.9% of the population, whereas 67.9% of inhabitants reported no chronic health issues compared with 63.4% across Regional Vic.. Working-age inhabitants demonstrate a higher-than-average incidence of chronic conditions. Older residents aged 65 and over comprise 18.2% of the locality (775 people), below the 24.0% regional proportion, and senior health outcomes exceed broader population figures against national standards.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Smythes Creek is largely Australian-born, at 92.0% of residents, with 2.5% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (32.0%) and Australian (31.0%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity measures indicate a largely Australian-born demographic, with 92.0% of inhabitants born domestically, 95.2% holding citizenship, and 97.5% speaking exclusively English at home. Christianity stands as the primary religious affiliation, accounting for 46.7% of residents relative to 47.3% throughout Regional Vic.. Looking at parental heritage, the leading ancestries across Smythes Creek are English at 32.0%, Australian at 31.0%, and Irish at 10.0%. Distinct variations appear among other background groups, including Dutch representation at 2.7% (against 1.7% regionally), Scottish ancestry at 9.6% (compared with 8.8%), and Maltese background at 1.2% (versus 0.5%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Smythes Creek is 41. 23.1% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
Smythes Creek exhibits the demographic characteristics of an established, family-oriented community. As of updated estimates for August 2026, younger residents aged 0 - 24 comprise 33.4% of the population compared to 28.5% regionally, while retirees and senior citizens aged 65+ make up 18.2% against 24.0% across Regional Vic.. The median age is estimated at 41 as at August 2026, matching the 2021 Census figure and sitting 2 years below the Regional Vic. median of 43 at that Census. The proportion of seniors has increased from 14.3% at the Census to an estimated 18.2%, largely reflecting local aging as the 5 to 14 cohort declined from 15.8% to an estimated 13.1% while the 15 to 24 cohort expanded from 13.2% to 15.9%.
Looking ahead to 2041, individuals aged 25 - 44 are projected to drive the largest demographic gain, adding 380 residents (45%) to reach 1,222.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Smythes Creek
8 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Sep 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 8 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Sep 2026 last month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Sep 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 3 sections | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2025 about a year ago all 1 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2025. | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 34 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (4,230 at the 2021 Census → 4,265 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (201011007). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.