Smythes Creek

Population growth drivers in Smythes Creek are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Smythes Creek's population was 4,230 people as per the 2021 Census. By November 2025, it had increased to around 4,293, a rise of 63 people (1.5%). This growth is inferred from an estimated resident population of 4,278 in June 2024 and 30 new addresses validated since the Census date. The population density was 41 persons per square kilometer at this time. Natural growth contributed approximately 50.9% to recent population gains, with all factors including interstate and overseas migration being positive.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024, based on 2022 data. For uncovered areas, it employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends indicate a significant population increase in the top quartile of national non-metropolitan areas, with Smythes Creek expected to grow by 1,241 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 28.6% over the 17 years based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Smythes Creek, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Smythes Creek has averaged approximately 18 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 93 homes. As of FY26 so far, there have been 4 approvals recorded. Over these five years, from FY21 to FY25, an average of 1.8 new residents per year per dwelling constructed has been observed. However, this figure has increased to 4.6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating a potential shift in demand and supply dynamics. The average construction value for new homes is $309,000.

In comparison, commercial approvals registered this financial year amount to $396,000, suggesting a primary focus on residential development. Smythes Creek has significantly less development activity compared to the rest of Victoria, with 63.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Recent building activity consists solely of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character and appealing to those seeking family homes with space.

The estimated population count per dwelling approval is 733 people, reflecting its quiet, low-activity development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Smythes Creek is expected to grow by 1,226 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Smythes Creek has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 41 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Delacombe Town Centre Stage 2 Expansion, Ballarat Link Road Stages 2 and 3, Winter Valley Rise Estate, and Alluvium Winter Valley Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Smythes Creek significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Smythes Creek has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.4% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.6% over the past year.

There were 2,404 residents in work at this time, with an unemployment rate of 1.4%, which is below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was higher than standard at 68.9%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. The area has a particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 2.6% versus the regional average of 7.5%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 1.6%, labour force increased by 1.7%, and unemployment remained essentially unchanged. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.7%, the labour force fell by 0.6%, and unemployment rose marginally. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Smythes Creek's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, assuming no changes in population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Smythes Creek SA2's median income among taxpayers is $49,222. The average income for the area is $58,353. This is below the national average. In comparison, Rest of Vic.'s median income is $48,741 with an average of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Smythes Creek SA2 would be approximately $55,207 (median) and $65,449 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household income ranks at the 69th percentile ($2,065 weekly), while personal income sits at the 49th percentile. Distribution data shows that 37.9% of the community earns between $1,500 and $2,999 (1,627 individuals), mirroring regional levels where 30.3% occupy this bracket. After housing costs, residents retain 88.5% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Smythes Creek is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Smythes Creek's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were entirely houses (100.0%) with no other dwellings recorded (0.0%). This contrasts with Non-Metro Vic.'s 85.6% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Smythes Creek stood at 40.0%, with mortgaged properties at 55.9% and rented ones at 4.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, exceeding Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,499. Median weekly rent in Smythes Creek was $350, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $300. Nationally, Smythes Creek's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Smythes Creek features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 84.2% of all households, including 45.9% couples with children, 30.0% couples without children, and 7.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 15.8%, consisting of 14.2% lone person households and 1.6% group households. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Smythes Creek aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.9%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (30.4%). Educational participation is high, with 30.0% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.2% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows three active public transport stops operating within Smythes Creek. These stops offer a mix of bus services, which are operated by four individual routes. Collectively, these routes provide twelve weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as limited, with residents typically located 2341 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages one trip per day across all routes, equating to approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Smythes Creek are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Smythes Creek has below-average health indicators with common conditions more prevalent across all ages compared to averages. Approximately 49% of residents have private health cover, lower than the state (50.9%) and national (55.3%) averages. The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (9.2%) and asthma (8.9%), while 67.9% report no medical ailments, higher than the Rest of Vic.

average (62.3%). The area has 16.3% residents aged 65 and over (700 people), lower than the Rest of Vic.'s 17.8%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average and better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Smythes Creek placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Smythes Creek had a cultural diversity below average, with 92.0% of its population born in Australia, 95.2% being citizens, and 97.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 46.7% of people, compared to 45.0% across Rest of Vic.. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.0%), Australian (31.0%), and Irish (10.0%).

Notably, Dutch representation was higher at 2.7% compared to the regional average of 2.1%, Scottish at 9.6% versus 9.2%, and Maltese at 1.2% against a regional average of 0.4%.

Smythes Creek's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Smythe's Creek has a median age of 41 years, which is lower than Victoria's average of 43 but higher than Australia's average of 38. The population aged 15-24 makes up 14.4%, compared to the Rest of Vic., while those aged 75-84 constitute 3.9%. Post-Census 2021 data shows the 15-24 age group grew from 13.2% to 14.4%, and the 65-74 cohort increased from 10.2% to 11.3%. Conversely, the 45-54 group declined from 16.2% to 13.9%, and the 5-14 age group dropped from 15.8% to 14.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Smythe's Creek's age profile. The 25-34 cohort is expected to grow by 64%, adding 221 residents to reach a total of 569.