Smythes Creek
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Smythes Creek are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Smythes Creek's population is around 4290 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 60 people from the 2021 Census figure of 4230. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4278 in Jun 2024 and an additional 29 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 41 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed approximately 50.9% of overall population gains during recent periods, with other drivers such as interstate migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate a significant increase in the top quartile of national non-metropolitan areas, with Smythes Creek expected to grow by 1241 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, recording an overall gain of 28.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Smythes Creek, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Smythes Creek averaged approximately 18 new dwelling approvals annually. Development approval data from the ABS is on a financial year basis, totalling 93 approvals over the past five years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with no approvals yet recorded in FY-26. On average, 1.8 new residents arrived per new home each year over these five years, suggesting balanced supply and demand conditions. However, this figure has increased to 4.6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential supply constraints. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $617,000, which is higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development.

This year, $396,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting a predominantly residential focus compared to the Rest of Vic., where Smythes Creek has 63.0% less development activity per person. The area's low density nature is maintained by new construction consisting entirely of detached dwellings, attracting space-seeking buyers and reinforcing demand for existing dwellings. With an estimated 733 people per dwelling approval, future projections suggest Smythes Creek will add 1,229 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Future projections show Smythes Creek adding 1,229 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Smythes Creek has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure projects and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 43 such projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable among these are Delacombe Town Centre Stage 2 Expansion, Ballarat Link Road Stages 2 & 3, Winter Valley Rise Estate, and Ballarat West Precinct Structure Plan. The following list provides details on those projects most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market strength in Smythes Creek positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Smythes Creek has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 6.8%.

As of June 2025, 2,396 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.5% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was higher at 68.9%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading employment industries included health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. Construction had particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented, with only 2.6% of Smythes Creek's workforce compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 6.8% alongside labour force increasing by 6.9%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable at 1.5%. Rest of Vic., however, experienced employment decline of 0.9% and labour force decline of 0.4%, with a rise in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Smythes Creek's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2022 indicates Smythes Creek's median income among taxpayers was $49,222, with an average of $58,353. This is lower than the national average. Rest of Vic.'s median income was $48,741 and average was $60,693 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth from June 2022 to March 2025 (approximately 3 years), current estimates for Smythes Creek's median income would be approximately $54,198 and average would be $64,252. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household income ranks at the 70th percentile ($2,065 weekly) and personal income sits at the 50th percentile. Distribution data shows that 37.9% of locals (1,625 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. After housing costs, residents retain 88.5% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Smythes Creek is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Smythes Creek's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were entirely houses with 0.0% other dwellings, contrasting with Non-Metro Vic.'s 85.6% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Smythes Creek stood at 40.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 55.9% and rented ones at 4.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, exceeding Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,499. The median weekly rent in Smythes Creek was $350, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $300. Nationally, Smythes Creek's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Smythes Creek features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.2% of all households, including 45.9% couples with children, 30.0% couples without children, and 7.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.8%, with lone person households at 14.2% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Smythes Creek aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area has lower university qualification rates at 18.9%, compared to the VIC average of 33.4%. This disparity presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.8%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 41.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (30.4%).

Educational participation is high at 30.0%, including primary education (11.2%), secondary education (10.3%), and tertiary education (2.8%). The area has two primary schools, Woady Yaloak Primary School-Ross Creek Campus and Haddon Primary School, serving a total of 236 students. Smythes Creek Primary School demonstrates typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 1022). Both primary schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas. Local school capacity is limited at 5.5 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 18.0, leading many families to travel for schooling. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Smythes Creek identifies three active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four individual bus routes, collectively offering twelve weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically residing 2341 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages one trip per day across all routes, equating to approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Smythes Creek are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Smythes Creek shows below-average health indicators with common conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% (2,097 people), compared to Rest of Vic.'s 50.9%. Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (9.2%) and asthma (8.9%), while 67.9% report no medical ailments, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 62.3%. Smythes Creek has 16.3% residents aged 65 and over (700 people), lower than Rest of Vic.'s 17.8%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Smythes Creek placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Smythes Creek had a cultural diversity below average, with 92.0% of its population born in Australia, 95.2% being citizens, and 97.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 46.7% of Smythes Creek's population, compared to 45.0% across Rest of Vic.. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.0%), Australian (31.0%), and Irish (10.0%).

Notably, Dutch (2.7%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average (2.1%), as were Scottish (9.6%) versus 9.2%, and Maltese (1.2%) versus 0.4%.

Smythes Creek's median age exceeds the national pattern

Smythes Creek has a median age of 41 years, which is lower than the Rest of Vic. average of 43 but higher than the national average of 38 years. The 15-24 age group constitutes 14.4% of the population in Smythes Creek, compared to the Rest of Vic., while the 75-84 cohort makes up 3.9%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has increased from 13.2% to 14.4%, and the 65-74 cohort has grown from 10.2% to 11.3%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 16.2% to 13.9%, and the 5-14 group has dropped from 15.8% to 14.7%. Demographic modeling indicates that Smythes Creek's age profile is projected to change significantly by 2041, with the 25-34 cohort showing the strongest growth of 64%, adding 221 residents to reach a total of 569 in this age group.