Lucas

Lucas lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Lucas's population is estimated at around 4,470 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,476 people (49.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,994 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,289, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 569 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,952 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Lucas's 49.3% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the non-metro area (6.0%), along with the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 74.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of non-metropolitan areas nationally, is predicted over the period with the area expected to increase by 2,347 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 32.7% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Lucas among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Lucas has experienced around 165 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Approximately 829 homes were approved over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 33 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 1.2 new residents arrive per year for every new home approved during these years.

This suggests a balanced supply and demand dynamic, fostering stable market conditions. The average construction value of new properties is $497,000. In the current financial year, $8.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Lucas shows 397.0% higher new home approvals per person, offering greater choice for buyers but with a noticeable slowdown in building activity in recent years. This level is significantly higher than the national average, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location.

Recent construction comprises 97.0% detached houses and 3.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining Lucas' traditional suburban character focused on family homes. The area has approximately 39 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Future projections estimate Lucas to add 1,462 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Lucas has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that could impact the area. Key projects include New Lucas Hospital, Circular Economy Precinct, Shayne Reese Swimming Learn to Swim Facility, and Lucas Lifestyle Estate. Below is a list detailing those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Lucas performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Lucas has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 1.6%, with an estimated employment growth of 6.6% over the past year (AreaSearch aggregation).

As of June 2025, there are 1,813 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.2% lower than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation is high at 70.7%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training, with a strong specialization in health care & social assistance (1.4 times the regional level). Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 1.4%, compared to the regional average of 7.5%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 6.6% and labour force by 6.5%, reducing unemployment by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline by 0.9%, labour force decline by 0.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand in Lucas. Over five years, national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% and over ten years by 13.7%. Applying these projections to Lucas's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.5% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Lucas's median income among taxpayers was $55,128 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $70,598 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of Vic., which were $48,741 and $60,693 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $61,832 (median) and $79,183 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that incomes in Lucas cluster around the 66th percentile nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 38.6% of the community in Lucas, with 1,725 individuals falling into this category. This trend is consistent with broader metropolitan region figures showing 30.3% in the same category. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income. Despite this, disposable income remains at the 63rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Lucas is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Lucas, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.7% houses and 2.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 85.6% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lucas stood at 21.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (43.5%) or rented (34.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Lucas was $1,700, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,499. The median weekly rent figure in Lucas was recorded at $380, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $300. Nationally, Lucas's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Lucas features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.4% of all households, including 38.6% couples with children, 23.3% couples without children, and 12.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 24.6%, with lone person households at 20.7% and group households comprising 4.0%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Rest of Vic average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Lucas exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Lucas has a higher educational attainment than broader averages. Among residents aged 15+, 32.9% have university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in the rest of Victoria and 24.6% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.5% and certificates at 22.6%. Educational participation is high, with 32.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.7% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education. Two schools serve the area: Siena Catholic Primary School and Lucas Primary School, collectively educating 787 students. These schools focus on primary education, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1042) and balanced educational opportunities. Secondary options are available in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lucas has seven active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with one route servicing each stop collectively providing 270 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as good, with residents typically located 315 meters from the nearest stop.

The service frequency averages 38 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 38 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Lucas is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Lucas demonstrates above-average health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population compared to the nation's average. However, this rate is higher among older and at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 55% (2,446 people) of Lucas' total population has private health cover, which is higher than the Rest of Vic's rate of 50.9%. The most common medical conditions in Lucas are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 9.3 and 9.0% of residents respectively. Conversely, 70.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 62.3% across Rest of Vic. Lucas has a lower percentage of residents aged 65 and over at 11.1% (496 people) compared to the broader population in Rest of Vic., which stands at 17.8%.

Lucas was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lucas was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 22.3% of its population born overseas and 21.0% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion in Lucas is Christianity, comprising 41.8% of the population. Notably, the 'Other' religious category is overrepresented in Lucas at 2.9%, compared to 1.0% across the rest of Victoria.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (28.0%), Australian (24.9%), and Other (9.5%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 4.5%. Some ethnic groups are notably divergent in representation: Dutch at 2.0% (vs regional 2.1%), Indian at 5.5% (vs regional 1.2%), and Maltese at 0.6% (vs regional 0.4%).

Lucas hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Lucas is 32 years, which is notably lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and substantially under the Australian median of 38. Compared to Rest of Vic., Lucas has a higher concentration of residents aged 25-34 (18.3%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (5.5%). According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 increased from 16.7% to 18.3%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 55 to 64 decreased from 6.6% to 5.5%. By 2041, Lucas is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition, with the 25 to 34 age group projected to grow by 68%, reaching 1,373 people from 818.