Lucas

Lucas lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Lucas's population is estimated at around 4862 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 1868 people (62.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2994 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4229, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 569 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2123 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Lucas's growth of 62.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the non-metro area (7.9%), along with the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 74.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of non-metropolitan areas nationally, is predicted over the period with the Lucas statistical area (Lv2) expected to increase by 2388 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 22.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Lucas among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Lucas has experienced around 168 dwelling approvals each year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 842 homes were approved, with an additional 43 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, 1.2 new residents arrive per new home annually over the past five financial years.

The average construction value of these properties is $497,000, indicating a focus on premium market segment. This year, commercial approvals totalled $1.9 million. Compared to Rest of Vic., Lucas has 407.0% higher new home approvals per person. Recent construction comprises 99.0% detached houses and 1.0% medium and high-density housing. The location has approximately 64 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Future projections estimate an addition of 1,111 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand.

Lucas has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified nine projects likely impacting the region. Notable ones are Ballarat Private Hospital, Circular Economy Precinct, Shayne Reese Swimming Learn to Swim Facility, and Ballarat Link Road Stages 2 and 3. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Lucas performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Lucas has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 1.6%, with estimated employment growth of 2.4% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of September 2025, there are 1,910 employed residents, an unemployment rate of 2.2% below Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%, and a workforce participation rate of 70.7% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training, with healthcare having an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 1.4%, compared to the regional average of 7.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited due to the predominantly residential nature of the area.

Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.4% while labour force increased by 2.3%, maintaining a relatively stable unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%, with a marginal rise in unemployment. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Lucas's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

The suburb of Lucas has an above-average income level nationally, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ended June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Lucas is $55,128, with an average income of $70,598. These figures compare to those for the rest of Victoria, which are $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $59,676 (median) and $76,422 (average). Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Lucas cluster around the 66th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate that 38.6% of individuals in Lucas earn between $1,500 and $2,999, consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region where 30.3% fall into the same category. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 63rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Lucas is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Lucas, as per the latest Census evaluation, 97.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 2.3% being other types such as semi-detached homes and apartments. This is in contrast to Non-Metro Vic., where 85.6% of dwellings were houses and 14.5% were other types. Home ownership in Lucas stood at 21.8%, with the rest either mortgaged (43.5%) or rented (34.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Lucas was $1,700, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,499. Weekly rent in Lucas averaged at $380, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $300. Nationally, Lucas's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Lucas features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.4% of all households, including 38.6% couples with children, 23.3% couples without children, and 12.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 24.6%, with lone person households at 20.7% and group households comprising 4.0%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Lucas exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Lucas's educational attainment exceeds broader standards. Among residents aged 15+, 32.9% possess university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in the rest of Victoria and 24.6% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 20.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational credentials are also significant, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.5% and certificates at 22.6%. Educational participation is notably high, with 32.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.7% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lucas has seven active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by a mix of bus routes, with one route providing service to all stops collectively offering 234 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents located an average of 315 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 33 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 33 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Lucas is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Lucas demonstrates above-average health outcomes with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population but higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is fairly high at approximately 55% of the total population (~2,660 people), compared to 51.9% in the rest of Victoria.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 9.3% and 9.0% of residents respectively. Seventy-point-nine percent declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.3% in the rest of Victoria. There are 11.1% of residents aged 65 and over (539 people), which is lower than the 17.8% in the rest of Victoria but requires more attention due to being at greater risk.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Lucas was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lucas was found to have a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 22.3% of its population born overseas and 21.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Lucas, comprising 41.8% of its population. However, the category 'Other' shows an overrepresentation in Lucas, making up 2.9% compared to the Rest of Vic's average of 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (28.0%), Australian (24.9%), and Other (9.5%). Notably, Dutch (2.0%) is overrepresented in Lucas compared to the regional average of 2.1%, as are Indian (5.5% vs 1.2%) and Maltese (0.6% vs 0.4%).

Lucas hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Lucas is 32 years, which is notably lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 years and also substantially under the Australian median of 38 years. Relative to Rest of Vic., Lucas has a higher concentration of residents aged 25-34 years (18.3%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 years (5.5%). According to the 2021 Census, the age group of 25 to 34 years has grown from 16.7% to 18.3% of the population. Conversely, the age group of 55 to 64 years has declined from 6.6% to 5.5%. By 2041, Lucas is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the age group of 25 to 34 years will grow by 56%, reaching 1,384 people from 889. Meanwhile, both age groups of 75 to 84 years and 55 to 64 years are expected to see reduced numbers.