Cardigan

Cardigan lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As per ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, the estimated population of the suburb of Cardigan was around 3086 as of May 2026. This figure represents a significant increase from the 2021 Census count of 1064 people, marking a growth of 2022 individuals (190.0%). The latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date contributed to this estimation. This population level results in a density ratio of 75 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's population growth exceeded that of Rest of Vic. (4.3%) and its SA4 region, indicating Cardigan as a notable growth leader. Interstate migration was the primary driver for this growth, contributing approximately 74.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch projections for Cardigan are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Cardigan is predicted to experience exceptional growth, placing it among Australia's top 10 percent of non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the suburb is expected to grow by approximately 3071 persons, reflecting a total increase of 99.5% over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Cardigan was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Cardigan has experienced around 91 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 457 homes were approved, with a further 49 approved so far in FY-26. Each dwelling built on average attracts 2.4 new residents per year, reflecting robust demand that supports property values.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $497,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, $412,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Rest of Vic., Cardigan records 488.0% more building activity per person, offering buyers ample choice, although construction activity has recently eased. This level is substantially higher than the national average, indicating strong developer confidence in the location. New building activity consists of 97.0% detached dwellings and 3.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers with an emphasis on detached housing.

The location has approximately 33 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. Looking ahead, Cardigan is expected to grow by 3,069 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Cardigan has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 24 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Ballarat West Growth Area, Lucas Estate Masterplanned Community, Ballarat Private Hospital, and Shayne Reese Swimming Learn to Swim Facility. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Cardigan places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Cardigan's workforce is skilled with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 0.5% in the past year, seeing an estimated employment growth of 15.8%. As of December 2025, 2,055 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.2%, below Regional Vic.'s 3.7%.

Workforce participation was high at 84.4% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. A moderate 14.7% worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment concentrations were in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, with a strong specialization in construction (1.4 times the regional level). Agriculture, forestry & fishing employed just 3.6% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 7.5%.

The area hosted more jobs than residents, with 2.7 workers per resident, acting as an employment hub attracting external workers. In the year ending May-25, employment increased by 15.8%, matching labour force growth and maintaining a stable unemployment rate. Conversely, Regional Vic. saw employment decline by 0.6% and labour force drop by 0.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cardigan's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Cardigan suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $52,739 and an average of $67,538. These figures align with national averages. Regional Vic., meanwhile, had a median income of $50,954 and an average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $57,812 (median) and $74,035 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Cardigan's household income ranks at the 94th percentile ($2,713 weekly), while personal income ranks at the 64th percentile. Income distribution shows that 34.6% of residents (1,067 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 30.3% occupy this range. Notably, 43.4% earn above $3,000 weekly, indicating prosperity that drives local economic activity. After housing costs, residents retain 88.7% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Cardigan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Cardigan, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.7% houses and 1.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cardigan stood at 36.7%, with the rest being mortgaged (55.9%) or rented (7.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent was $350, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Cardigan's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $350 compared to the national figure of $375.

Cardigan features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 89.9% of all households, including 60.8% couples with children, 24.8% couples without children, and 3.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 10.1%, with lone person households at 7.8% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Cardigan shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 21.0%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (26.3%). Educational participation is high at 35.5%, comprising secondary education (13.5%), primary education (13.0%), and tertiary education (4.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 35.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.5% in secondary education, 13.0% in primary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cardigan has one active public transport stop. This stop is served by one route, offering a total of 197 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Cardigan is limited, with residents typically living 1803 meters away from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 99% of residents. On average, there are 2.6 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 28 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 197 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cardigan's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Cardigan based on AreaSearch's assessment mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups rate of private health cover approximately 54% of total population around 1651 people compares to 505% across Regional Vic most common medical conditions area asthma mental health issues impacting 78% residents respectively while 743% declared completely clear medical ailments compared 634% Regional Vic under-65 population demonstrates better average health outcomes area has 104% residents aged 65 and over around 320 people lower than 239% Regional Vic health outcomes among seniors particularly strong national rankings even higher general population.

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.8 and 7.0% of residents, respectively, while 74.3% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic.. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 10.4% of residents aged 65 and over (320 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Cardigan is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Cardigan, as per the census conducted on 29 August 2016, exhibited low cultural diversity with 90.3% of its population born in Australia, 94.9% being citizens, and 93.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 59.7% of Cardigan's population, compared to 47.3% across Regional Victoria. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.1%), English (28.2%), and Irish (10.3%).

Notable differences in ethnic group representation included Sri Lankan at 0.9% (regional: 0.1%), Welsh at 0.8% (regional: 0.4%), and Maltese at 1.7% (regional: 0.5%).

Cardigan's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Cardigan is 36 years, which is significantly lower than Regional Vic.'s average of 43 and somewhat younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 15-24 age group comprises 17.1%, compared to Regional Vic., while the 65-74 cohort makes up 6.4%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 2.0% to 4.0% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 18.1% to 15.9%, and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 17.6% to 15.6%. Population forecasts for 2041 suggest substantial demographic changes in Cardigan, with the 45 to 54 age group projected to grow by 127% (613 people), reaching 1,095 from 481. In contrast, the 85+ cohort shows minimal growth of just 0% (0 people).