Cardigan

Cardigan lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, the estimated population of the suburb of Cardigan was around 2,132 as of Feb 2026. This reflected an increase of 1,068 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,064. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 2,023 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 744 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 52 persons per square kilometer. Cardigan's growth rate of 100.4% since the 2021 census exceeded Rest of Vic.'s (8.1%) and the national average, marking it as a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 74.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and overseas migration also being positive factors. AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilised VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth, placing Cardigan in the top 10 percent of Australia's regional areas, is predicted over the period with an expected increase of 1,801 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 79.3% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cardigan among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, sourced from statistical area data, indicates Cardigan has recorded approximately 91 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 457 homes were approved, with an additional 38 approved so far in FY-26. On average, over these five years, there have been about 0.8 new residents per year per dwelling constructed, suggesting that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of these properties is approximately $497,000, indicating that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year, Cardigan has registered around $412,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting its residential nature. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Cardigan has 610.0% more construction activity per person, creating greater choice for buyers. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods. This high level of activity is substantially higher than the national average, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location.

New building activity in Cardigan shows that approximately 97.0% are detached houses and 3.0% are townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing, which attracts space-seeking buyers. With around 22 people per dwelling approval, Cardigan exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Looking ahead, AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects that Cardigan is expected to grow by approximately 1,691 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Cardigan has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Lucas Estate Masterplanned Community, Ballarat Private Hospital, Ballarat West Growth Area, and Shayne Reese Swimming Learn to Swim Facility. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The exceptional employment performance in Cardigan places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Cardigan has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 0.8%, with an estimated employment growth of 0.5% over the past year, according to AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, there are 789 residents in work while the unemployment rate is 2.9% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation lags significantly at 49.6%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. A moderate 14.7% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence with 3.6% employment compared to 7.5% regionally. There are 2.7 workers for every resident as at the Census, indicating Cardigan functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. During the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.5% and labour force increased by 0.4%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6%, labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Cardigan. These projections suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Cardigan's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Cardigan had an average national income level according to the latest Australian Taxation Office (ATO) data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Cardigan was $52,739, with an average income of $67,538. These figures compared to Regional Vic.'s median and average incomes of $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since the financial year 2023, estimated current incomes would be approximately $57,090 (median) and $73,110 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household incomes in Cardigan ranked at the 94th percentile ($2,713 weekly), while personal income ranked lower at the 64th percentile. Income analysis showed that 34.6% of the community (737 individuals) fell within the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band, consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 30.3% in the same category. Higher earners represented a substantial presence, with 43.4% exceeding $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retained 88.7% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Cardigan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Cardigan, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.7% houses and 1.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In Regional Vic., the figures were 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cardigan stood at 36.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 55.9% and rented ones at 7.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, while the median weekly rent was $350. Nationally, mortgage repayments averaged $1,863 and rents were $375.

Cardigan features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 89.9% of all households, including 60.8% couples with children, 24.8% couples without children, and 3.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 10.1%, consisting of 7.8% lone person households and 1.6% group households. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Cardigan shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 21.0%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.4% and graduate diplomas at 3.2%. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.8% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (26.3%). Educational participation is high, with 35.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 13.5% in secondary education, 13.0% in primary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cardigan has one active public transport stop. This single route serves the area, offering a total of 197 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically living 1803 meters away from their nearest stop. Most Cardigan residents commute outwards, primarily by car (99%). On average, there are 2.6 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 14.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 28 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 197 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cardigan's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Cardigan based on AreaSearch's assessment mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence common health conditions rate private health cover leading average SA2 area approximately 54% total population around 1141 people compares to 505 across Regional Vic Most common medical conditions area found asthma mental health issues impacting 78 70 residents respectively 743 declared completely clear medical ailments compared to 634 Regional Vic Under-65 population demonstrates better average health outcomes Area has 97 residents aged 65 and over around 206 people lower than 239 across Regional Vic Health outcomes among seniors particularly strong national rankings even higher general population.

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.8 and 7.0% of residents, respectively, while 74.3% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic.. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 9.7% of residents aged 65 and over (206 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Cardigan is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Cardigan, surveyed in June 2016, had a predominantly Australian-born population with 90.3% born there, and 94.9% being citizens. English was the primary language spoken at home by 93.8%. Christianity dominated religiously, practiced by 59.7%, compared to Regional Vic's 47.3%.

Ancestrally, Australian (32.1%), English (28.2%), and Irish (10.3%) were the top groups. Notably, Sri Lankan (0.9% vs regional 0.1%), Welsh (0.8% vs 0.4%), and Maltese (1.7% vs 0.5%) populations were higher than average.

Cardigan's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Cardigan is 36 years, which is significantly below Regional Victoria's average of 43 years and somewhat younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 15-24 age group represents 17.0% of the population compared to Regional Vic., while the 65-74 cohort makes up 6.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 2.0% to 3.6%, and the 25 to 34 cohort has increased from 8.1% to 9.5%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 17.6% to 15.6%, and the 5-14 group has dropped from 18.1% to 16.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Cardigan, with the 45 to 54 age group projected to grow by 105% (349 people), reaching 682 from 332. In contrast, the 85+ cohort shows minimal growth of just 0% (0 people).