Winter Valley

Winter Valley lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Winter Valley's estimated population is around 5,423. This reflects an increase of 1,983 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,440. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 5,293 residents following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release (June 2024), along with an additional 1,194 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,102 persons per square kilometer. Winter Valley's growth rate of 57.6% since the 2021 census exceeded the non-metro area (7.9%) and national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate exceptional growth over the period, with the area expected to grow by 6,043 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 98.5% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Winter Valley was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Winter Valley has seen approximately 275 new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, around 1,375 homes were approved, with an additional 74 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 1.4 people have moved to the area per dwelling built over these years, indicating a balanced supply and demand market that supports stable conditions.

The average construction value of new dwellings is $392,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. This year has seen $14.7 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Rest of Vic., Winter Valley records 599.0% more new home approvals per person, offering buyers greater choice. However, construction activity has eased recently. This high level of approvals is substantially higher than the national average, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location.

The new development consists of 95.0% detached dwellings and 5.0% medium and high-density housing, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 29 people per dwelling approval, Winter Valley shows characteristics of a growth area. Future projections estimate that Winter Valley will add approximately 5,344 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Winter Valley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified twenty projects likely to affect the region. Notable projects include Winter Valley Rise, Winterfield Estate, Delacombe Village (Stage 3 - Delacombe Town Centre), and Alluvium Winter Valley Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Winter Valley demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Winter Valley has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 3.7% as of September 2025. This is in line with the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

The employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.1%. The area's workforce participation rate is higher than standard, at 76.6%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. The dominant employment sectors among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Notably, health care & social assistance has a particularly high representation, with an employment share 1.2 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.9% versus the regional average of 7.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 2.1%, while labour force increased by 2.2%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.7% and a labour force decline of 0.6%. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Winter Valley's employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Winter Valley's income level is slightly above average nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Winter Valley is $59,666 and the average income stands at $68,779. In comparison, Rest of Vic.'s median and average incomes are $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Winter Valley would be approximately $64,588 (median) and $74,453 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, incomes in Winter Valley cluster around the 68th percentile nationally. In terms of income distribution, 49.0% of the population (2,657 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, mirroring the metropolitan region where 30.3% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 15.6% of income in Winter Valley, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 67th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Winter Valley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Winter Valley's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was entirely composed of houses (100.0%) with no other dwellings recorded (0.0%). This contrasted with Non-Metro Vic.'s composition of 85.6% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Winter Valley stood at 16.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 58.8% and rented ones at 24.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,600, surpassing Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,499. Weekly rent in Winter Valley was recorded at $390, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s figure of $300. Nationally, Winter Valley's mortgage repayments were lower ($1,600 vs. Australia's average of $1,863), while rents were higher ($390 vs. national average of $375).

Winter Valley features high concentrations of family households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 80.0% of all households, including 39.7% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 11.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 20.0%, with lone person households at 16.1% and group households at 4.4%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Winter Valley demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Winter Valley's residents aged 15+ have 23.7% university degrees, compared to Victoria's 33.4%. This gap indicates potential for educational development. Bachelor degrees are most common (17.3%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.0% of residents holding them – advanced diplomas at 11.5% and certificates at 29.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.5% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.2% in primary, 6.9% in secondary, and 5.7% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows three active stops operating in Winter Valley, offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by one route collectively providing 194 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated limited, with residents typically located 865 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 27 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 64 weekly trips per individual stop.

Winter Valley's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout Winter Valley, with younger cohorts experiencing particularly low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover stands at approximately 54% of the total population (around 2,929 people), compared to 51.9% across the rest of Victoria.

Asthma and mental health issues are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.8 and 9.8% of residents respectively. A total of 71.5% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.3% across the rest of Victoria. Winter Valley has 4.4% of its population aged 65 and over (238 people), which is lower than the 17.8% figure for the rest of Victoria.

Winter Valley ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Winter Valley's population was found to have low cultural diversity, with 88.5% born in Australia, 91.2% being citizens, and 89.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 38.6%. The 'Other' category is overrepresented at 2.4%, compared to 1.0% regionally.

Top ancestry groups are Australian (31.2%), English (29.0%), and Scottish (8.3%). Notable divergences include Dutch (2.1% vs regional 2.1%), Maltese (0.8% vs 0.4%), and Sri Lankan (0.3% vs 0.1%).

Winter Valley hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Winter Valley's median age is 28 years, which is considerably lower than the Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Winter Valley has a higher concentration of residents aged 25-34 (27.0%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (2.8%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is well above the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and now, Winter Valley's median age has decreased by 1.2 years to 28 from its previous age of 29. Specifically, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 has increased from 23.4% to 27.0%, while those aged 35-44 have risen from 14.1% to 15.6%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 has declined from 9.7% to 7.8%, and those aged 55-64 have dropped from 7.0% to 5.2%. Population forecasts for Winter Valley in the year 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 123%, adding 1,807 residents to reach a total of 3,272. Meanwhile, the 85+ age group is forecasted to remain unchanged with no additional residents.