Winter Valley

Winter Valley lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Winter Valley is around 6,047, reflecting a significant increase from the 2021 Census figure of 3,440 people. This growth of 2,607 individuals (75.8%) is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses since the Census date and examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, which estimated a resident population of 5,668 for Winter Valley and surrounding areas applied by AreaSearch. This results in a population density ratio of 1,229 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Winter Valley's growth since the 2021 Census exceeded both the non-metro area (6.0%) and SA4 region, marking it as a significant growth leader. This growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 85.0% of overall population gains, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, Winter Valley is predicted to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of Australia's non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the area is expected to grow by 6,129 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 79.5% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Winter Valley was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Winter Valley has seen approximately 271 new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 1,358 homes were approved, with an additional 56 so far in FY-26. On average, 1.4 people have moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five years, indicating a balanced supply and demand market that supports stable conditions.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $392,000, aligning with regional trends. This year has seen $25.5 million in commercial approvals, suggesting moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Winter Valley records 586.0% more new home approvals per person, offering buyers greater choice. However, construction activity has recently eased. This high level of developer confidence is also substantially higher than national trends.

New development in Winter Valley consists of 94.0% detached dwellings and 6.0% medium and high-density housing, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 23 people per dwelling approval, Winter Valley exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 4,806 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Winter Valley has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified twenty projects that may impact this region. Notable ones include Winter Valley Rise, Winterfield Estate, Delacombe Village (Stage 3 - Delacombe Town Centre), and Alluvium Winter Valley Estate. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Winter Valley demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Winter Valley has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 3.9% as of June 2025. This is in line with the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

The area's employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.8%, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. There are 2,255 residents currently employed. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.9% versus the regional average of 7.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 5.8% while labour force increased by 6.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.9% and a labour force decline of 0.4%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Winter Valley. These projections estimate that national employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Winter Valley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Winter Valley's median income among taxpayers was $59,666 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $68,779 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of Vic., which were $48,741 and $60,693 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $66,921 (median) and $77,143 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, incomes in Winter Valley cluster around the 68th percentile nationally. In terms of income distribution, 49.0% of the population fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range. High housing costs consume 15.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 67th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Winter Valley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Winter Valley's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were entirely houses with no other dwellings. This contrasts with Non-Metro Vic.'s 85.6% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Winter Valley was 16.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 58.8% and rented ones at 24.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,600, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,499. Weekly rent in Winter Valley was $390, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $300. Nationally, Winter Valley's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,863 and rents higher at $375.

Winter Valley features high concentrations of family households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.0% of all households, including 39.7% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 11.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 20.0%, with lone person households at 16.1% and group households comprising 4.4%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Winter Valley demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Winter Valley's educational qualifications trail regional benchmarks, with 23.7% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 33.4% in VIC. This gap indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (29.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.2% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 5.7% pursuing tertiary education. Educational facilities appear to be located outside immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Winter Valley has three active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by a single route, collectively offering 212 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transports is rated as limited, with residents typically located 865 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 30 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 70 weekly trips per individual stop.

Winter Valley's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Winter Valley. Younger cohorts in particular saw very low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover was found to be fairly high at approximately 54% of the total population (~3,266 people), compared to 50.9% across Rest of Vic.. The most common medical conditions in the area were asthma and mental health issues, impacting 10.8 and 9.8% of residents respectively, while 71.5% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.3% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 4.3% of residents aged 65 and over (260 people), which is lower than the 17.8% in Rest of Vic..

Winter Valley ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Winter Valley's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.5% of its population born in Australia, 91.2% being citizens, and 89.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 38.6% of Winter Valley's population. Notably, the 'Other' category was overrepresented at 2.4%, compared to 1.0% across Rest of Vic.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.2%), English (29.0%), and Scottish (8.3%). Some ethnic groups showed notable divergences: Dutch was represented at 2.1% in Winter Valley, Maltese at 0.8%, and Sri Lankan at 0.3%.

Winter Valley hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Winter Valley's median age is 28 years, which is considerably lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Winter Valley has a higher concentration of residents aged 25-34 years at 27.0%, but fewer residents aged 65-74 years at 2.8%. This concentration of young adults is well above the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and present, Winter Valley's median age has dropped by 1.3 years to 28 from 29. Specifically, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 increased from 23.4% to 27.0%, while those aged 35-44 increased from 14.1% to 15.6%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 decreased from 9.7% to 7.8%, and those aged 55-64 dropped from 7.0% to 5.2%. Population forecasts for Winter Valley by 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow strongly at 102%, adding 1,664 residents to reach a total of 3,297. Meanwhile, the 85+ age group grows modestly by 0% (an increase of just 5 people).