Smythes Creek

Smythes Creek lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Smythes Creek statistical area (Lv2) is around 2,733. This figure reflects a significant increase from the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,762 people. The growth of 971 people represents an increase of 55.1% since the 2021 Census. AreaSearch's estimate of 2,713 residents is based on their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and the validation of 172 new addresses since the Census date. This population density equates to approximately 99 persons per square kilometer. The Smythes Creek (SA2) has experienced notable growth, with a rate exceeding that of non-metro areas (7.9%) and the national average.

The primary driver of this growth was interstate migration, contributing around 83.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. However, natural growth and overseas migration also played positive roles. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they utilise the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Based on these projections, exceptional growth is predicted for the Smythes Creek (SA2) between 2022 and 2041. The area is expected to expand by 1,457 persons over this period, reflecting a total increase of 30.6%. This places it in the top 10 percent of national regional areas for growth during this timeframe.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Smythes Creek when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval data shows Smythes Creek has approved approximately 40 residential properties annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 203 homes were approved, with an additional 20 in FY-26 so far. On average, 1.6 people have moved to the area per dwelling built over these years.

The average construction value is $398,000, higher than regional levels. Around $1.5 million in commercial development approvals were recorded this financial year. Smythes Creek has 76.0% more construction activity per person compared to Rest of Vic., reflecting strong developer confidence. New developments consist of 97.0% detached dwellings and 3.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low density nature. There are approximately 99 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Smythes Creek is projected to gain 837 residents by 2041. Current development rates should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Smythes Creek has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 19 projects expected to impact the region. Notable initiatives include Winterfield Estate, Alluvium Winter Valley Estate, Winter Valley Rise Estate, and Delacombe Village. The following details projects deemed most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Smythes Creek ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Smythes Creek's workforce is skilled with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.1% as of September 2025, lower than the Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.0%. Residents' participation in the workforce was high at 68.3%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries for employment were health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction had particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented with only 2.4% of Smythes Creek's workforce compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.6, indicating local employment opportunities above the norm. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 2.0%, labour force by 2.2%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment fell by 0.7% and unemployment rose marginally. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Smythes Creek's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Smythes Creek had a median income among taxpayers of $51,493 and an average of $60,204. This was lower than the national average. Rest of Vic.'s median was $50,954 with an average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, estimates for September 2025 are approximately $55,741 (median) and $65,171 (average). Census data indicates household income ranks at the 74th percentile ($2,132 weekly), with personal income at the 52nd percentile. The majority of residents fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, comprising 39.5% (1,079 people). After housing costs, residents retain 88.6% of their income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Smythes Creek is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluated dwelling structures in Smythes Creek as 100.0% houses and 0.0% other dwellings, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 85.6% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Smythes Creek stood at 36.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 53.9% and rented ones at 9.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,647, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,499. The median weekly rent figure in Smythes Creek was $395, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $300. Nationally, Smythes Creek's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,647 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $395 than the national figure of $375.

Smythes Creek features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 86.0% of all households, including 44.9% couples with children, 32.2% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for 14.0%, with lone person households at 11.4% and group households making up 2.3%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational achievement in Smythes Creek places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

The area's university qualification rate is 20.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (29.4%). Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including secondary (9.8%), primary (9.5%), and tertiary (4.0%) levels.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in secondary education, 9.5% in primary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Smythes Creek shows four active transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three individual routes that together facilitate 401 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 1438 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 57 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 100 weekly trips per individual stop.

Smythes Creek's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Smythes Creek's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks, indicating a typical distribution of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups. Approximately 51% (~1,385 people) of Smythes Creek residents have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.7% and 8.5% of residents respectively. Around 66.8% of residents report being free from medical ailments, slightly higher than the Rest of Vic's figure of 62.3%. As of 4th April 2021, 14.7% (401 people) of Smythes Creek residents are aged 65 and over, lower than the 17.8% recorded in Rest of Vic. Health outcomes among seniors in Smythes Creek are above average, generally consistent with the overall population's health profile.

Smythes Creek is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Smythes Creek had a cultural diversity below average, with 91.5% of its population born in Australia, 94.7% being citizens, and 95.5% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion was Christianity, comprising 45.1% of the population. However, the most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, which constituted 1.2% compared to 1.0% across Rest of Vic.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.0%), Australian (30.7%), and Irish (10.8%). There were also significant differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Dutch at 2.7% (vs regional 2.1%), Scottish at 10.1% (vs 9.2%), and Maltese at 1.2% (vs 0.4%).

Smythes Creek's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Smythes Creek as of 2021 is 37 years, which is lower than the average for Rest of Vic., reported at 43 years, and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 15-24 make up a significant portion at 16.4%, while those aged 75-84 are relatively smaller at 3.9%. Since 2021, the population aged 25 to 34 has grown from 10.2% to 12.1%, and the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 11.2% to 12.7%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 14.1% to 12.2%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 13.3% to 12.0%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic projections indicate a substantial rise in the 25 to 34 age cohort, with an increase of 293 people (89%), from 330 to 624 individuals.