Sebastopol (Vic.)

Sebastopol has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Sebastopol's population is estimated at 10,799 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a growth of 605 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,194. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 10,475 residents following analysis of ABS' June 2024 ERP data release and an additional 315 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,267 persons per square kilometer for Sebastopol (Vic.), above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 5.9% since the census is within 2.2 percentage points of Rest of Vic.'s 8.1%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in Sebastopol (Vic.). AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is forecasted to increase its population by 2,877 persons, reflecting a total increase of 19.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Sebastopol according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Sebastopol has seen approximately 53 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years from FY18 to FY22. This totals an estimated 268 homes. In FY26 so far, 22 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline in recent years, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average value of new homes being built is $404,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In terms of commercial approvals, $3.2 million has been registered in FY26, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Sebastopol shows reduced construction activity, with 57.0% fewer approvals per person. This typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties.

Recent construction comprises 76.0% detached dwellings and 24.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Sebastopol's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes. With around 314 people per approval, Sebastopol reflects a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is projected to grow by 2,104 residents from FY26 to FY41. Development activity appears to be keeping pace with this projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Sebastopol has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 19 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Ascot Springs Estate, Delacombe Big Housing Build - Leawarra Neighbourhood, Delacombe Village, and Federation University Health and Sports Precinct Stage 2. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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Employment conditions in Sebastopol face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Sebastopol's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.8% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 1.9%. As of September 2025, 4,504 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.0%, higher than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%.

Workforce participation was lower at 54.9% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. Only 9.9% of residents worked from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employed just 1.7% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Over the past year, employment increased by 1.9%, and labour force by 1.3%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline by 0.7% and labour force decline by 0.6%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sebastopol's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released in financial year 2023, Sebastopol had a median taxpayer income of $45,765 and an average income of $52,958. These figures are below the national averages of $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average) for Rest of Vic. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $49,541 (median) and $57,327 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Sebastopol fall between the 3rd and 12th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $400 - 799 dominates with 31.5% of residents (3,401 people), differing from the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category is predominant at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Sebastopol, with only 81.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Sebastopol is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Sebastopol's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 72.9% houses and 27.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sebastopol was at 29.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.4% and rented ones at 41.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,133, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Sebastopol was $270, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Sebastopol's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Sebastopol features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 58.0% of all households, including 17.5% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 16.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 42.0%, with lone person households at 38.1% and group households comprising 4.0%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Sebastopol fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.9%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.3%) and certificates (29.4%). Educational participation is high at 27.9%, with 10.0% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sebastopol has 41 active public transport stops. These are served by 4 different routes, offering a total of 778 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as good, with residents located an average of 215 meters from the nearest one. Most residents commute outwards due to Sebastopol's residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 94% of residents. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 9.9% of residents work from home, which might be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 111 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sebastopol is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Sebastopol faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high across various health conditions that affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 48% of the total population (around 5,167 people), compared to 50.5% in the rest of Victoria and a national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 14.1% and 11.2% of residents respectively. However, 52.8% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in the rest of Victoria. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Sebastopol has 21.0% of its residents aged 65 and over (2,267 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in the rest of Victoria. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Sebastopol is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Sebastopol was found to have a below average level of cultural diversity, with 89.1% of its population being Australian citizens, 89.3% born in Australia, and 94.3% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in Sebastopol is Christianity, which accounts for 42.4% of the population. However, there was an overrepresentation in the 'Other' category, comprising 1.2% compared to the regional average of 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English at 32.0%, Australian at 31.2%, and Irish at 9.2%. Notably, Dutch ancestry was overrepresented at 2.4% in Sebastopol compared to 1.7% regionally, Maltese remained steady at 0.5%, and Scottish showed a slight underrepresentation at 8.2% versus the regional average of 8.8%.

Sebastopol's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Sebastopol's median age is 38, which is lower than the Rest of Vic.'s figure of 43 but matches the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group constitutes 18.3% of Sebastopol's population, higher than Rest of Vic., while the 55-64 cohort makes up 10.3%, lower than Rest of Vic.'s figure. According to the 2021 Census, Sebastopol's 25-34 age group grew from 15.1% to 18.3%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group decreased from 11.3% to 9.4%, and the 55-64 cohort dropped from 11.7% to 10.3%. By 2041, Sebastopol's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 56%, reaching 3,076 people from 1,976. Meanwhile, population declines are forecast for the 15-24 and 55-64 cohorts.