Sebastopol (Vic.)

Sebastopol has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Sebastopol's population, as of Nov 2025, is estimated at around 10,389. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 10,194 people, a rise of 195 individuals (1.9%). The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 10,280 in Jun 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,219 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.0% to overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it employs Vic State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels and applied across all areas until 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate significant increases in non-metropolitan top quartile areas nationally, with Sebastopol expected to expand by 2,805 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 23.5% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Sebastopol according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Sebastopol has recorded approximately 50 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years ending June 2021, totalling an estimated 253 homes. As of July 2026, 13 approvals have been recorded in FY-26. The population has declined in recent years, but housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $404,000, aligning with broader regional development trends.

In the current financial year, $3.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Sebastopol shows substantially reduced construction activity, with 59.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. Recent construction comprises 71.0% detached dwellings and 29.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

Sebastopol reflects a low density area with around 197 people per approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Sebastopol is forecasted to gain 2,444 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the future.

Sebastopol has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 19 projects that could affect the region. Notable ones include Ascot Springs Estate, Delacombe Big Housing Build - Leawarra Neighbourhood, Delacombe Village, and Federation University Health and Sports Precinct Stage 2. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Sebastopol faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Sebastopol has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented.

The unemployment rate is 7.3%. Over the past year, employment growth was estimated at 7.7% by AreaSearch aggregating statistical area data. As of June 2025, there are 4,556 employed residents with an unemployment rate of 10.3%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is lower at 51.4% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Major employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 1.7%, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Over the past year, employment increased by 7.7% while labour force grew by 6.7%, decreasing unemployment by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline by 0.9%, labour force decline by 0.4%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (Sep-22) project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sebastopol's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Sebastopol's median income among taxpayers was $45,762 and average was $52,956 in financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages. Rest of Vic.'s median was $48,741 and average was $60,693 in the same period. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $51,327 and average will be around $59,395, accounting for a 12.16% growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Sebastopol fall between the 3rd and 12th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $400 - 799 dominated with 31.5% of residents (3,272 people). In contrast, metropolitan regions had a leading bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Sebastopol, with only 81.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Sebastopol is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Sebastopol's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 72.9% houses and 27.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structures were 85.6% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sebastopol was at 29.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.4% and rented dwellings at 41.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area, as of the latest data, was $1,133, while the median weekly rent figure was $270. Nationally, Sebastopol's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, recorded as of 2021, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375, reported in the same year.

Sebastopol features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 58.0% of all households, including 17.5% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 16.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 42.0%, with lone person households at 38.1% and group households making up 4.0%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Sebastopol fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.9%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 9.3% and certificates at 29.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education. Six schools operate within Sebastopol, educating approximately 2,166 students as of the latest data. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 990) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes two primary, one secondary, and three K-12 schools. Note that for schools showing 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to their parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Sebastopol shows 41 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six individual routes, collectively offering 871 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 215 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 124 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 21 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sebastopol is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Sebastopol faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low at approximately 48%, covering around 4,971 people, compared to Victoria's average of 50.9%. Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions in Sebastopol, affecting 14.1% and 11.2% of residents respectively. However, 52.8% report having no medical ailments, compared to 62.3% across the rest of Victoria. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.2%, with around 2,202 people falling into this age bracket, compared to 17.8% in the rest of Victoria. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly similar to those of the general population.

Sebastopol is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Sebastopol had a lower-than-average cultural diversity, with 89.1% of its population being citizens, 89.3% born in Australia, and 94.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 42.4% of Sebastopol's population. The most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, which made up 1.2% compared to 1.0% regionally.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.0%), Australian (31.2%), and Irish (9.2%). There were also notable differences in the representation of Dutch (2.4% vs 2.1%), Maltese (0.5% vs 0.4%), and Scottish (8.2% vs 9.2%) groups compared to regional averages.

Sebastopol's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Sebastopol's median age is 38, which is lower than the Rest of Vic.'s figure of 43 but equivalent to Australia's national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group is strongly represented at 17.1%, compared to Rest of Vic., while the 55-64 cohort is less prevalent at 10.6%. According to the 2021 Census, Sebastopol's population aged 25-34 has grown from 15.1% to 17.1%, and the 15-24 age group increased from 12.2% to 13.3%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group declined from 11.3% to 9.8%, and the 55-64 cohort dropped from 11.7% to 10.6%. Demographic modeling suggests Sebastopol's age profile will significantly shift by 2041, with the 25-34 group projected to grow by 72% (1,280 people), reaching 3,057 from 1,776. Meanwhile, population declines are expected for the 15-24 and 55-64 age cohorts.