Sebastopol (Vic.)

Sebastopol has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Sebastopol's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 10,798. This figure reflects an increase of 604 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,194. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 10,475 residents following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,267 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Sebastopol's growth rate of 5.9% since the census positions it competitively with non-metro areas at 7.9%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate significant growth in the top quartile of non-metropolitan areas nationally, with Sebastopol expected to expand by 2,873 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 19.5% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Sebastopol according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Sebastopol has seen approximately 53 residential properties approved annually over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals around 268 homes since FY-17. By June 2026, 22 approvals had been recorded. The population decline in recent years has maintained an adequate housing supply relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with diverse buyer options.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $404,000, indicating a focus on premium properties. In FY-26, $3.2 million in commercial approvals were registered, reflecting the area's predominantly residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Sebastopol has significantly lower construction levels, with 57.0% fewer approvals per person. This limited new supply typically supports demand and pricing for existing properties.

Recent development consists of 76.0% detached dwellings and 24.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving Sebastopol's suburban character with an emphasis on family homes. With approximately 314 people per approval, the area maintains a low-density profile. Population projections indicate Sebastopol will gain around 2,103 residents by 2041. Development is keeping pace with projected growth, though increasing competition among buyers is expected as the population expands.

Sebastopol has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 19 projects that could impact the region. Notable ones include Ascot Springs Estate, Delacombe Big Housing Build - Leawarra Neighbourhood, Delacombe Village, and Federation University Health and Sports Precinct Stage 2. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Sebastopol face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Sebastopol has a balanced workforce consisting of white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented.

The unemployment rate is 7.7%. Employment growth over the past year is estimated at 1.9%. As of September 2025, 4,501 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 4.0% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Sebastopol lags behind Rest of Vic., at 51.4% compared to 57.4%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 1.7% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. In the past year, employment increased by 1.9% while labour force increased by 1.3%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Sebastopol's employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

In financial year 2023, Sebastopol's median income among taxpayers was $45,765, with an average level of $52,958. This is below the national average and compares to $50,954 and $62,728 across Rest of Vic., respectively. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $49,541 and average at $57,327, based on an 8.25% growth since financial year 2023. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Sebastopol fall between the 3rd and 12th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 31.5% of residents (3,401 people) earn within the $400 - 799 bracket, differing from the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Sebastopol, with only 81.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Sebastopol is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Sebastopol's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 72.9% houses and 27.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro Vic., in comparison, had 85.6% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sebastopol was at 29.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.4% and rented ones at 41.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,133, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,499. The median weekly rent figure in Sebastopol was $270, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $300. Nationally, Sebastopol's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Sebastopol features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 58.0% of all households, including 17.5% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 16.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 42.0%, with lone person households at 38.1% and group households comprising 4.0%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Sebastopol fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.9%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.3%) and certificates (29.4%). Educational participation is high, with 27.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (10.0%), secondary education (6.8%), and tertiary education (4.2%).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sebastopol has 41 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that together facilitate 778 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of the transport system is considered good, with residents on average located 215 meters from their nearest stop.

Across all routes, there are an average of 111 trips per day, which translates to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sebastopol is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Sebastopol faces significant health challenges, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% (around 5,166 people), compared to 51.9% across the rest of Victoria and a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent conditions are mental health issues (14.1%) and asthma (11.2%), while 52.8% report no medical ailments, compared to 62.3% in the rest of Victoria.

Sebastopol has 21.2% residents aged 65 and over (2,289 people), higher than the 17.8% in the rest of Victoria. Health outcomes among seniors are challenging but generally align with the overall population's health profile.

Sebastopol is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Sebastopol's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.1% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (89.3%), and speaking English only at home (94.3%). Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 42.4% of Sebastopol's population. The most significant overrepresentation was seen in the 'Other' category, with 1.2% compared to 1.0% across Victoria.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.0%), Australian (31.2%), and Irish (9.2%). Notably, Dutch (2.4%) and Maltese (0.5%) were overrepresented in Sebastopol compared to regional averages of 2.1% and 0.4%, respectively. Scottish ancestry was underrepresented at 8.2% versus the regional average of 9.2%.

Sebastopol's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Sebastopol's median age is 38, which is lower than the Rest of Vic.'s figure of 43 but equivalent to Australia's national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 17.2% of Sebastopol's population compared to Rest of Vic., while the 55-64 cohort accounts for 10.6%. As per the 2021 Census, the 25-34 age group has increased from 15.1% to 17.2%, and the 15-24 group has risen from 12.2% to 13.3%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 11.3% to 9.8%, and the 55-64 group has dropped from 11.7% to 10.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates Sebastopol's age profile will significantly change. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 66% (1,223 people), reaching 3,081 from 1,857. Meanwhile, population declines are forecast for the 15-24 and 55-64 cohorts.