Sebastopol (Vic.)

Sebastopol has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Sebastopol (Vic.) is around 10,423. This figure reflects an increase of 229 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,194. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 10,394 in June 2025, using the latest ERP data release by the ABS, along with an additional 333 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,223 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Sebastopol's 2.2% growth since census is within 2.1 percentage points of the Rest of Vic.'s 4.3%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate a significant increase in the top quartile of non-metropolitan areas nationally, with the suburb expected to expand by 2,955 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 28.0% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Sebastopol according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Sebastopol shows around 53 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 267 homes. By FY-26, 51 approvals have been recorded. The average number of people moving to the area per dwelling built over these years is 0.5. This suggests new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations.

The average value of new homes being built is $404,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, $3.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Rest of Vic., Sebastopol shows substantially reduced construction, at 56.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties.

Recent construction comprises 78.0% detached dwellings and 22.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes. Sebastopol has a population density of around 325 people per approval, reflecting its low-density nature. Population forecasts indicate Sebastopol will gain 2,921 residents by 2041 (from AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Sebastopol has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 19 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Ascot Springs Estate, Delacombe Big Housing Build - Leawarra Neighbourhood, Delacombe Village, and Federation University Health and Sports Precinct Stage 2. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Sebastopol face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Sebastopol has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs well represented. Essential services sectors are prominent. The unemployment rate is 7.3%.

Employment stability has been maintained over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of December 2025, 4,574 residents are employed while the unemployment rate stands at 3.6% above Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation is somewhat lower than standard at 56.3%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%.

A low 9.9% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence with 1.7% employment compared to the regional average of 7.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, labour force decreased by 0.7% and employment declined by 0.4%, resulting in an unemployment rate fall of 0.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional Vic., where employment contracted by 0.6%, the labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Sebastopol's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released in financial year 2023 shows Sebastopol had a median taxpayer income of $45,765 and an average income of $52,958. These figures are below the national averages of $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average) for Regional Vic. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes in Sebastopol as of March 2026 would be approximately $50,168 (median) and $58,053 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Sebastopol fall between the 3rd and 12th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort in Sebastopol is 31.5% of locals earning between $400 - $799, unlike surrounding regions where the dominant range is $1,500 - $2,999 at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Sebastopol, with only 81.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Sebastopol is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

As evaluated at the latest Census in Sebastopol, 72.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 27.2% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. In comparison, Regional Vic. had 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Sebastopol was 29.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.4% and rented ones at 41.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,133, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure in Sebastopol was recorded at $270, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Sebastopol's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Sebastopol features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 58.0% of all households, including 17.5% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 16.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 42.0%, with lone person households at 38.1% and group households comprising 4.0%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Sebastopol fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.9%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.3%) and certificates (29.4%). Educational participation is high, with 27.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.0% in primary, 6.8% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sebastopol has 41 active public transport stops serviced by 4 routes offering 778 weekly passenger trips. Residents have good accessibility with an average distance of 215 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward using cars, which are dominant at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 9.9% of residents work from home. Service frequency averages 111 trips daily across all routes, resulting in approximately 18 weekly trips per stop.

Service frequency averages 111 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sebastopol is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Sebastopol faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and prevalence of chronic conditions are high, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (~4,987 people), compared to 50.5% in Regional Vic.

and the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, affecting 14.1% and 11.2% of residents respectively. However, 52.8% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. Sebastopol has 21.3% of residents aged 65 and over (2,220 people), lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Sebastopol is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Sebastopol's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with its population comprising 89.1% citizens, 89.3% born in Australia, and 94.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 42.4% of Sebastopol's population. Notably, the 'Other' category comprised 1.2%, higher than Regional Vic's 0.8%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.0%), Australian (31.2%), and Irish (9.2%). Divergences included Dutch being overrepresented at 2.4% compared to the regional average of 1.7%, Maltese was equally represented at 0.5%, and Scottish slightly underrepresented at 8.2% versus Regional Vic's 8.8%.

Sebastopol's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Sebastopol's median age is 38, lower than Regional Vic.'s figure of 43 but equal to the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 18.0% of Sebastopol's population, higher than Regional Vic., while the 55-64 cohort constitutes 10.1%, lower than Regional Vic. According to the 2021 Census, Sebastopol's 25-34 age group has increased from 15.1% to 18.0%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 11.7% to 10.1%, and the 5-14 group has dropped from 11.3% to 10.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates Sebastopol's age profile will change significantly. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 64%, adding 1,199 people and reaching 3,076 from 1,876. Meanwhile, the 55-64 group will show modest growth of 0%, gaining only 2 residents.