Sebastopol (Vic.)

Sebastopol has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Sebastopol's population was estimated at 10,799 as of February 2026, based on ABS updates and AreaSearch validation. This reflects a growth of 605 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,194. The increase is inferred from an estimated resident population of 10,475 in June 2024 and 315 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,267 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Sebastopol's growth rate of 5.9% since the census is within 2.2 percentage points of Rest of Vic.'s 8.1%, indicating competitive fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate a significant increase in the top quartile of non-metropolitan areas nationally, with Sebastopol expected to expand by 3,440 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 28.8% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Sebastopol according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Sebastopol recorded around 53 residential properties approved each year over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 267 homes. As of July 2022, 24 approvals have been recorded in the current financial year, FY-26. The population has declined recently, but housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $404,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. In FY-26, $3.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Sebastopol shows reduced construction activity, with 57.0% fewer approvals per person. This typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties.

Recent construction comprises 78.0% detached dwellings and 22.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Sebastopol's suburban character with a focus on family homes. With approximately 314 people per approval, the area reflects low density. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Sebastopol is forecasted to gain 3,113 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Sebastopol has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 19 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Ascot Springs Estate, Delacombe Big Housing Build - Leawarra Neighbourhood, Delacombe Village, and Federation University Health and Sports Precinct Stage 2. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Sebastopol face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Sebastopol has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, and an unemployment rate of 7.3%, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation as of December 2025. The resident employment stands at 4,570, with an unemployment rate 3.6% higher than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Sebastopol is lower at 55.6%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%.

Census responses indicate that only 9.9% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdown impacts. The dominant employment sectors among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence with 1.7% employment compared to the regional average of 7.5%.

The predominantly residential area seems to offer limited local employment opportunities, as suggested by the comparison between Census working population and resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, labour force decreased by 0.8%, while employment declined by 0.6% in Sebastopol, leading to a fall in unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. saw employment contract by 0.6%, labour force fall by 0.7%, and unemployment decrease by 0.1 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Sebastopol's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, the suburb of Sebastopol had a median income among taxpayers of $45,765. The average income stood at $52,958. Both figures are below the national averages of $50,954 and $62,728 for Regional Vic., respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% from financial year ended June 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $49,541, and average income is around $57,327 as of that date. From the 2021 Census, incomes in Sebastopol fall between the 3rd and 12th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The predominant income cohort spans 31.5% of locals (3,401 people) with incomes between $400 and $799 weekly, differing from surrounding regions where the $1,500 to $2,999 category dominates at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Sebastopol, with only 81.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Sebastopol is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Sebastopol, as per the latest Census, consisted of 72.9% houses and 27.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sebastopol was at 29.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.4% and rented ones at 41.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,133, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure was $270, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Sebastopol's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Sebastopol features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 58.0% of all households, including 17.5% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 16.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 42.0%, with lone person households at 38.1% and group households comprising 4.0%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Sebastopol fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.9%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.3%) and certificates (29.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.0% in primary, 6.8% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sebastopol has 41 operational public transport stops. These are served by four distinct routes that facilitate a total of 778 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in the area is deemed good, with residents situated on average 215 meters from their nearest stop. Primarily residential, most Sebastopol residents commute outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 94% of residents. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, lower than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, only 9.9% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 111 trips daily, equating to roughly 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sebastopol is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Sebastopol faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Several health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of Sebastopol's total population (~5,167 people), compared to Regional Vic.'s 50.5% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 14.1% and 11.2% of residents respectively. Conversely, 52.8% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to Regional Vic.'s 63.4%. Working-age population health is notably impacted by chronic conditions. Sebastopol has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (19.9%, or 2,149 people), compared to Regional Vic.'s 23.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Sebastopol is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Sebastopol's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.1% of its population being citizens, 89.3% born in Australia, and 94.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 42.4% of Sebastopol's population. Notably, the category 'Other' comprised 1.2% of Sebastopol's population, compared to 0.8% across Regional Vic., indicating an overrepresentation.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups were English (32.0%), Australian (31.2%), and Irish (9.2%). Dutch (2.4%) was notably overrepresented in Sebastopol compared to the regional average of 1.7%. Maltese representation was equal at 0.5%, while Scottish was slightly underrepresented at 8.2% versus the regional average of 8.8%.

Sebastopol's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Sebastopol's median age is 38, lower than Regional Vic.'s figure of 43 but equivalent to Australia's national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group is strongly represented at 19.1%, compared to Regional Vic., while the 55-64 cohort is less prevalent at 10.0%. According to the 2021 Census, younger residents have shifted Sebastopol's median age down by 1.3 years to 38. The 25-34 age group has grown from 15.1% to 19.1%, and the 35-44 cohort increased from 11.5% to 12.8%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 11.7% to 10.0%, and the 5-14 group dropped from 11.3% to 9.8%. By 2041, Sebastopol's age composition is expected to see notable shifts. The 25-34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 66%, adding 1,366 residents to reach 3,429. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort is projected to decline by 13 people.