Southern Grampians

Southern Grampians is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Southern Grampians' population is approximately 6,285 as of November 2025. This figure reflects a decrease of 16 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,301. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,249 in June 2024 and an additional 41 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1.0 persons per square kilometer. While Southern Grampians experienced a 0.3% decline since the census, the SA3 area achieved 1.0% growth, indicating divergent population trends. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and the latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is expected to expand by 132 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 1.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Southern Grampians, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Southern Grampians has seen approximately 14 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 73 homes were approved, with an additional 5 approved in FY26 so far. On average, 0.8 people moved to the area per dwelling built over these years.

This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average value of new dwellings developed is $444,000, suggesting developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. In terms of commercial approvals, $8.9 million has been registered this financial year, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Rest of Vic., Southern Grampians has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person.

Nationally, it places among the 42nd percentile of areas assessed, indicating more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. This is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and potentially pointing to planning constraints. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 378 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Southern Grampians will gain 96 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Southern Grampians has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones are Lakes Edge Residential Development, Hamilton Community and Government Hub, Hamilton Structure Plan Implementation, and New Hamilton Gallery. The following details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Southern Grampians well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Southern Grampians has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 2.1% as of September 2025. It has 3,217 residents employed, with an unemployment rate 1.6% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is at 61.1%, slightly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading employment industries are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has a notable concentration with employment levels at 5.8 times the regional average. Manufacturing, however, has limited presence with 2.3% employment compared to 7.7% regionally.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data. In the 12 months prior to September 2025, labour force decreased by 3.0% and employment declined by 3.8%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment fell by 0.7% and labour force contracted by 0.6%. For broader context, as of 25-Nov-25, VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Southern Grampians's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.0% over five years and 11.3% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Southern Grampians SA2 has lower income compared to the national average. The median income is $46,409 and the average income stands at $60,839. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s figures where the median income is $48,741 and the average income is $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Southern Grampians would be approximately $52,052 (median) and $68,237 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family, and personal incomes in Southern Grampians all fall between the 19th and 30th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows the largest segment comprises 27.9% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (1,753 residents). Housing costs are manageable with 93.5% retained. However, disposable income sits below average at the 31st percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Southern Grampians is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Southern Grampians, as per the latest Census evaluation, 97.7% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 2.3% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, or 'other' dwellings. This is in contrast to Non-Metro Vic., where 93.1% were houses and 6.8% were other dwellings. Home ownership in Southern Grampians stood at 58.2%, with mortgaged properties at 26.9% and rented ones at 14.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $931, significantly lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,083 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Southern Grampians was recorded at $170, substantially below Non-Metro Vic.'s $220 and the national figure of $375.

Southern Grampians features high concentrations of lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.1% of all households, including 26.0% couples with children, 33.3% couples without children, and 7.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.9%, with lone person households at 31.1% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.3 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

Southern Grampians shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 19.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (26.8%). Educational participation is high, with 26.6% currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.6% in primary, 9.1% in secondary, and 1.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Southern Grampians shows that there are currently 17 operational transport stops. These stops offer a variety of bus services, with a total of 9 individual routes running weekly. The combined passenger trips across these routes amount to 50 each week.

Residents' access to transport is considered limited, with an average distance of 4728 meters to the nearest stop. On average, there are 7 trips per day across all routes, which translates to roughly 2 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Southern Grampians is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Southern Grampians faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~3142 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 10.4 and 7.4% of residents respectively, while 66.8% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.4% across Rest of Vic. The area has 26.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1649 people). Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Southern Grampians placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Southern Grampians showed cultural diversity below average, with 90.9% citizens, 92.1% born in Australia, and 97.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 57.5%. This compares to 50.5% across Rest of Vic..

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.0%), English (30.9%), and Scottish (11.7%). Notably, German (6.7%) and Irish (10.2%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 4.8% and 8.9%, respectively. New Zealand representation was also higher at 0.6%.

Southern Grampians hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Southern Grampians has a median age of 49, which is higher than the Rest of Vic's figure of 43 and Australia's 38 years. The 55-64 cohort is notably over-represented in Southern Grampians at 16.4%, compared to the Rest of Vic's average of 12.7% and Australia's 11.2%. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 9.0%. Between 2021 and 2022, the 75-84 age group grew from 6.7% to 8.4%, while the 45-54 cohort declined from 13.6% to 12.2% and the 5-14 group dropped from 12.5% to 11.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate that the 25-34 age cohort will grow by 131 people (23%), reaching 696 from its current figure of 564. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 55-64 cohorts.