Southern Grampians

Southern Grampians is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Southern Grampians' population, as of February 2026, is approximately 6,360. This figure represents an increase of 59 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,301. The change is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 6,249 in June 2024 and 42 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1 person per square kilometer. Southern Grampians' growth rate of 0.9% since the census is comparable to its SA3 area's growth rate of 1.6%. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, demographic trends suggest lower quartile growth for regional areas nationally. Southern Grampians is expected to expand by 132 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 0.3% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Southern Grampians, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Southern Grampians has seen approximately 14 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 73 homes were approved, with an additional 5 approved in FY-26 to date. The average population increase per dwelling built over these years was 0.8 people.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and potential for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $444,000, suggesting developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $8.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Rest of Vic., Southern Grampians has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 42nd percentile nationally for buyer choices.

This suggests limited options for buyers, supporting demand for existing homes. The recent building activity consists entirely of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population count per dwelling approval is 378 people. Population forecasts indicate Southern Grampians will gain approximately 21 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Southern Grampians has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that may affect this region. Notable initiatives include Lakes Edge Residential Development, Hamilton Structure Plan Implementation, Hamilton Community and Government Hub, and New Hamilton Gallery. The following details projects likely to have the greatest relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Southern Grampians well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Southern Grampians has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 2.1% as of September 2025. The area employs 3,217 residents with an unemployment rate of 1.6% lower than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%.

According to Census responses, 29.1% of residents work from home. Leading industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training, with a notable concentration in agriculture, forestry & fishing at 5.8 times the regional average. Manufacturing has limited presence with 2.3% employment compared to 7.8% regionally. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data.

In the 12-month period ending September 2025, labour force decreased by 3.0%, and employment declined by 3.8%, raising unemployment by 0.8 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May-25) project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with local employment projected to increase by 5.0% over five years and 11.3% over ten years based on industry-specific projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Southern Grampians SA2 has lower income compared to national averages. The median income is $43,406 while the average stands at $51,080. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated current incomes are approximately $46,987 (median) and $55,294 (average) as of September 2025. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Southern Grampians all fall between the 19th and 30th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows the largest segment comprises 27.9% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (1,774 residents), reflecting regional patterns where 30.3% similarly occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 93.5% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 31st percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Southern Grampians is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Southern Grampians' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 97.7% houses and 2.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Southern Grampians was 58.2%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (26.9%) or rented (14.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $931, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $170, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Southern Grampians' mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Southern Grampians features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.1% of all households, including 26.0% couples with children, 33.3% couples without children, and 7.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.9%, with lone person households at 31.1% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Southern Grampians shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 19.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (26.8%). Educational participation is high at 26.6%, comprising primary education (10.6%), secondary education (9.1%), and tertiary education (1.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Southern Grampians shows that there are 13 active transport stops currently operating. These stops are served by 4 distinct routes, collectively offering a total of 32 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these transport services is rated as limited, with residents typically residing at an average distance of 4728 meters from the nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward, with the car being the dominant mode of transportation at 85%. Meanwhile, 12% of residents walk for their commute. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling stands at 2.0, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant number of residents, specifically 29.1%, work from home, which may be reflective of conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic. On average, service frequency across all routes amounts to approximately 4 trips per day, equating to roughly 2 weekly trips per individual stop.

Southern Grampians's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Southern Grampians' health metrics closely align with national benchmarks. Common health conditions are seen at a standard level across both young and old age cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low, at approximately 46% of the total population (~2,931 people), compared to Rest of Vic.'s 50.5% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.4%) and asthma (7.4%). 66.8% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 63.4%. Working-age residents exhibit an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 26.2% (1,666 people), compared to Rest of Vic.'s 23.9%. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, ranking even higher than the general population nationally.

The latest Census data sees Southern Grampians placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Southern Grampians, as per the 2016 Census, had a low cultural diversity with 90.9% citizens, 92.1% born in Australia, and 97.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 57.5% of the population, compared to 47.3% across Victoria. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.0%), English (30.9%), and Scottish (11.7%).

Notably, German ancestry was higher at 6.7%, Irish at 10.2%, and New Zealand at 0.6%, compared to regional averages of 3.5%, 9.7%, and 0.4% respectively.

Southern Grampians hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Southern Grampians has a median age of 49, which is higher than the Rest of Vic.'s figure of 43 and Australia's average of 38 years. Comparing with the Rest of Vic., the 55-64 cohort is notably over-represented at 16.1% locally, while the 15-24 age group is under-represented at 9.1%. From 2021 to present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.7% to 8.5%, and the 25-34 cohort increased from 8.0% to 9.2%. Meanwhile, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 13.6% to 12.0%, and the 5-14 group dropped from 12.5% to 11.4%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Southern Grampians's age structure. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 115 people (21%), from 541 to 657. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 55-64 cohorts.