Ararat
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ararat's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 8,570 people. This figure represents an increase of 70 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 8,500. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,331 in June 2024 and the addition of 143 validated new addresses after the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 53 persons per square kilometer. Ararat's 0.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeds that of its SA3 area (-0.6%) and SA4 region, though overall growth remains modest. Overseas migration was the primary driver behind this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Ararat is expected to experience a population increase just below the median of non-metropolitan areas nationally, with an expected growth of 720 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of approximately 5.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ararat recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Ararat has recorded approximately 43 residential properties granted approval each year. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 219 homes have been approved, with an additional 7 approved so far in FY26. Despite population decline during this period, development activity has remained adequate relative to the decreasing population, which is positive for buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $479,000. This financial year, Ararat has recorded $10.1 million in commercial development approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Ararat shows moderately higher new home approvals, with 50.0% more approvals per person over the five-year period, maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values.

In terms of new building activity, 84.0% are detached houses and 16.0% are townhouses or apartments, preserving Ararat's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 224 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market. Population forecasts suggest Ararat will gain 478 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Ararat has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

In total, zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to impact the area. Key projects include Western Highway Upgrade - Ararat to Stawell, Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade, Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), and Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

While Ararat retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.8%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Ararat's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 3.8%, matching Rest of Vic.'s rate.

There were 3,504 employed residents at this time, but workforce participation lagged behind Rest of Vic., at 48.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and public administration & safety. Manufacturing stands out with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average. Construction is under-represented, at 6.2% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 10.4%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 4.1%, employment declined by 2.7%, causing unemployment to fall by 1.3 percentage points in Ararat. State-level data from Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ararat's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.7%% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Ararat's median income among taxpayers is $46,346. The average income in Ararat for the same period is $54,693. This is below the national average. Rest of Vic.'s median income is $48,741 with an average of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $51,032 (median) and $60,222 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Ararat fall between the 14th and 25th percentiles nationally. In income distribution, the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 29.6% of Ararat's community (2,536 individuals), similar to the surrounding region where this cohort represents 30.3%. Housing costs are modest with 88.2% of income retained. However, total disposable income ranks at just the 19th percentile nationally.

Ararat is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ararat's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.8% houses and 10.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ararat was at 42.2%, with the rest being mortgaged (30.6%) or rented (27.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ararat was $1,083, while the median weekly rent was $250. Nationally, Ararat's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ararat features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 62.7% of all households, including 20.2% that are couples with children, 29.1% that are couples without children, and 12.2% that consist of single parents. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.3%, with lone person households at 34.1% and group households comprising 3.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Ararat fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 25.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 11.3% in primary, 9.3% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education. Ararat has a robust network of seven schools educating approximately 1,393 students, serving distinct age groups with four primary and three secondary schools. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 974) with balanced educational opportunities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ararat has 64 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 21 distinct routes that facilitate 384 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents on average residing 205 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency stands at 54 trips per day across all routes, translating to roughly 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ararat is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Ararat faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 47% (~4,045 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.1%) and mental health issues (10.9%). Conversely, 58.6% claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 61.2% in the rest of Victoria. The area has 24.1% (2,063 people) aged 65 and over, slightly lower than the 25.2% in the rest of Victoria. Health outcomes among seniors show some challenges but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Ararat ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 81.1% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (87.1%), and speaking English only at home (92.8%). Christianity was the predominant religion in Ararat, comprising 44.3% of the population. The most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, which constituted 0.8% of Ararat's population compared to 0.5% across the rest of Victoria.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (32.1%), English (31.5%), and Scottish (9.6%). Notably, German ethnicity was overrepresented at 4.6% in Ararat versus 6.6% regionally, while Samoan was at 0.4% (versus 0.1%) and Maori at 0.6% (versus 0.2%).

Ararat hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Ararat's median age of 44 years is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Ararat has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (15.2%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.7%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, the population aged 35-44 grew from 11.1% to 12.7%, while the 25-34 cohort increased from 13.8% to 15.2%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.4% to 10.4%. By 2041, Ararat's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 30%, reaching 1,687 people from the current 1,300. Meanwhile, the 45-54 and 65-74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.