Ararat

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Ararat's population is around 8,631 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 131 people (1.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,500 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,328 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 154 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 53 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Ararat's 1.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (1.0%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of Australia's non-metropolitan areas is expected, with the area expected to expand by 720 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 4.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ararat recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Ararat has averaged around 43 new dwelling approvals per year, totalling 219 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 17 approvals have been recorded. As the area has experienced population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice, while new homes are being built at an average value of $301,000. Additionally, $10.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development activity.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Ararat shows moderately higher building activity (50.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. New building activity consists of 84.0% detached dwellings and 16.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 224 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

Looking ahead, Ararat is expected to grow by 417 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Ararat has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 0 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Western Highway Upgrade - Ararat to Stawell, Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade, Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), and Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Ararat demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Ararat features a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of just 2.2%, and 1.7% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 3,580 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.5% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation lags significantly (51.6% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%). Based on Census responses, a low 7.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and public administration & safety. The area has a particular employment specialization in manufacturing, with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level. On the other hand, construction is under-represented, with only 6.2% of Ararat's workforce compared to 10.4% in Regional Vic.. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 1.7% alongside a labour force decrease of 2.0%, resulting in unemployment falling by 3.6 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6%, a labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Ararat. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Ararat's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Ararat SA2's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Ararat SA2's median income among taxpayers is $49,021 and the average income stands at $57,320, which compares to figures for Regional Vic.'s of $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $53,065 (median) and $62,049 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Ararat all fall between the 14th and 24th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 29.6% of the community (2,554 individuals), reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 30.3% similarly occupy this range. While housing costs are modest with 88.2% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 19th percentile nationally.

Ararat is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Ararat, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 89.8% houses and 10.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Ararat was in line with that of Regional Vic., at 42.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (30.6%) or rented (27.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional Vic. average at $1,083, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $250, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Ararat's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ararat features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 62.7% of all households, comprising 20.2% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.3%, with lone person households at 34.1% and group households comprising 3.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.2 people is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Ararat fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (14.3%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 9.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (25.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 64 active transport stops operating within Ararat, comprising a mix of train stops. These stops are serviced by 12 individual routes, collectively providing 275 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 205 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 90%, with 7% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A relatively low 7.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 39 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ararat is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Ararat, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~4,108 people). This compares to 50.5% across Regional Vic. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.1 and 10.9% of residents, respectively, while 58.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 23.9% of residents aged 65 and over (2,066 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Ararat ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 81.1% of its population being citizens, 87.1% born in Australia, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Ararat is Christianity, which makes up 44.3% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 0.8% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Ararat are Australian, comprising 32.1% of the population, English, comprising 31.5% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 9.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: German is notably overrepresented at 4.6% of Ararat (vs 3.5% regionally), Samoan at 0.4% (vs 0.1%) and Maori at 0.6% (vs 0.2%).

Ararat hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Ararat's median age of 44 years is similar to Regional Vic.'s 43 and well above the 38-year national average. Relative to Regional Vic., Ararat has a higher concentration of 25 - 34 residents (15.7%) but fewer 5 - 14 year-olds (9.8%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 11.1% to 13.4% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 13.8% to 15.7%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.4% to 9.9% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 13.8% to 12.8%. By 2041, Ararat is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 24% (331 people), reaching 1,687 from 1,355. On the other hand, the 5 to 14 and 65 to 74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.