Ararat

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ararat's population was 8,500 according to the 2021 Census. By Nov 2025, it had increased to around 8,569, a rise of 69 people (0.8%). This growth is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 8,332 in June 2024 and the addition of 142 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was 53 persons per square kilometer by Nov 2025. Ararat's 0.8% growth rate exceeded the SA3 area's -0.2%. Overseas migration primarily drove this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Ararat is expected to increase by around 720 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of approximately 5.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ararat recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Ararat has recorded approximately 43 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 219 homes were approved, with an additional 14 approved so far in FY26. The average expected construction cost for new properties is $301,000.

This year has seen $10.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating steady investment activity in the area. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Ararat records elevated construction levels, with 50.0% more construction per person over the past five years. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand.

Recent construction comprises 84.0% detached dwellings and 16.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes. The location has approximately 224 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Ararat is expected to grow by 479 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ararat has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. A total of zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Western Highway Upgrade - Ararat to Stawell (scheduled for completion in 2023), Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade (commencing late 2021), Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (part of Murray Basin Rail Project, starting mid-2022), and Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements (planned for completion in 2025). The following list provides details on those projects most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 2.7%, Ararat has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Ararat has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and public administration & safety.

Manufacturing is particularly notable, with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average. However, construction is under-represented, accounting for only 6.2% of Ararat's workforce compared to 10.4% in Rest of Vic. As of September 2025, there are 3,549 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of just 2.7%, which is 1.0% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lags significantly at 48.4% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%.

Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 4.0%, while employment declined by 1.1%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 2.9 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.7% and a labour force decline of 0.6%. Providing broader context, state-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that while national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Ararat's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Ararat SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $46,346 and an average of $54,693. This is below the national average. Rest of Vic., meanwhile, had a median income of $48,741 and an average of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $51,982 (median) and $61,344 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Ararat fall between the 14th and 24th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that the $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band captures 29.6% of the community (2,536 individuals), similar to the surrounding region where this cohort represents 30.3%. Housing costs are modest with 88.2% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 19th percentile nationally.

Ararat is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Ararat, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 89.8% houses and 10.2% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ararat was recorded at 42.2%, with the rest being mortgaged (30.6%) or rented (27.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,043. The median weekly rent in Ararat was $250, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $215. Nationally, Ararat's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ararat features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 62.7% of all households, including 20.2% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.3%, with lone person households at 34.1% and group households making up 3.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Ararat fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (25.3%). Educational participation is high, with 30.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (11.3%), secondary education (9.3%), and tertiary education (2.7%).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ararat has 64 active public transport stops, serving a mix of train and bus services. These stops are covered by 21 individual routes, offering a total of 384 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 205 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency stands at 54 trips per day across all routes, translating to about 6 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Ararat is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Ararat faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low, at approximately 47% (around 4,044 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.1%) and mental health issues (10.9%). Conversely, 58.6% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 61.2% in the rest of Victoria. The area has a lower percentage of seniors aged 65 and over at 24.1% (2,063 people), compared to 25.2% in the rest of Victoria. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Ararat ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat showed lower cultural diversity, with 81.1% citizens, 87.1% born in Australia, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion at 44.3%. The 'Other' religious category was slightly overrepresented at 0.8%, compared to 0.5% regionally.

For ancestry, Australian (32.1%), English (31.5%), and Scottish (9.6%) were the top groups. Notably, German (4.6%) and Samoan (0.4%) were overrepresented, while Maori (0.6%) was slightly above regional levels.

Ararat hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Ararat's median age is 44 years, comparable to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and higher than the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Ararat has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (15.2%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.7%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 35-44 has increased from 11.1% to 12.7%, while the 25-34 cohort has risen from 13.8% to 15.2%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has decreased from 12.4% to 10.4%. By 2041, Ararat's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 30%, reaching 1,687 people from the current 1,299. Meanwhile, the 45-54 and 65-74 age groups are expected to see population declines.