Ararat

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ararat's population was 8,500 as of Feb 2021. By Feb 2026, it had increased to around 8,631, a rise of 131 people (1.5%). This growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 8,328 in June 2024 and the addition of 154 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was approximately 53 persons per square kilometer by Feb 2026. Ararat's 1.5% growth from 2021 to 2026 exceeded the SA3 area's 1.0% growth, making it a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during this period.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Ararat's population is expected to increase by just below the median of Australia's non-metropolitan areas, reaching 9,220 persons by 2041, a total increase of 720 people (4.8%) over 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ararat recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Ararat averaged approximately 43 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totaling 219 homes. As of FY-26, 17 approvals have been recorded. The area has maintained an adequate housing supply relative to demand despite population decline, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New homes are being built at an average construction cost value of $301,000.

This financial year, $10.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Ararat shows moderately higher building activity, with 50.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand.

New building activity comprises 84.0% detached dwellings and 16.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 224 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Ararat is expected to grow by 417 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Ararat has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No factors impact an area's performance more than local infrastructure changes, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could affect this area. Significant projects include Western Highway Upgrade - Ararat to Stawell, Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade, Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), and Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements. The following list details those most pertinent.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 2.7%, Ararat has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Ararat's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate was 2.7%. In this month, 3,549 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.0% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Ararat lagged at 51.4%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. According to Census responses, only 7.3% of residents worked from home. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and public administration & safety. Manufacturing stood out with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction had lower representation at 6.2%, compared to the regional average of 10.4%. Many residents commuted elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the 12-month period ending in May-25, Ararat's labour force decreased by 4.0% and employment declined by 1.1%, leading to a drop in unemployment rate of 2.9 percentage points. This contrasted with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.7%, the labour force fell by 0.6%, and unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ararat's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Ararat SA2's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2023 was $49,021, with an average income of $57,320. This is lower than the national averages for Rest of Vic., which were $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $53,065 and the average income $62,049, based on an 8.25% growth in wages since financial year 2023. Census data indicates that incomes in Ararat fall between the 14th and 24th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution shows that 29.6% of the community (2,554 individuals) earn between $1,500 - 2,999 annually, which is consistent with surrounding regions at 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 88.2% income retention, total disposable income ranks at the 19th percentile nationally.

Ararat is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Ararat's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.8% houses and 10.2% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ararat stood at 42.2%, similar to Non-Metro Vic., with mortgaged dwellings at 30.6% and rented dwellings at 27.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Ararat was $250, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Ararat's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,083 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ararat features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.7% of all households, including 20.2% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.3%, with lone person households at 34.1% and group households comprising 3.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Ararat fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas comprise 9.9% and certificates make up 25.3%. Educational participation is high, with 30.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.3% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ararat has 64 active public transport stops operating within it, offering a mix of train services. These stops are served by 12 individual routes that collectively provide 275 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 205 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. The car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 90%, with 7% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 7.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 39 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ararat is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Ararat faces substantial health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Only approximately 48% of Ararat's total population (~4,108 people) has private health cover, compared to 50.5% in the rest of Victoria and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (11.1%) and mental health issues (10.9%). Conversely, 58.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in the rest of Victoria. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. Ararat has 23.9% of residents aged 65 and over (2,066 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, ranking even higher than the general population nationally.

Ararat ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat had cultural diversity levels below average, with 81.1% citizens, 87.1% born in Australia, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 44.3%. The 'Other' category was overrepresented at 0.8%, compared to Rest of Vic's 0.8%.

Ancestry-wise, Australian (32.1%), English (31.5%), and Scottish (9.6%) were the top groups. Notably, German (4.6% vs regional 3.5%), Samoan (0.4% vs 0.1%), and Maori (0.6% vs 0.2%) showed higher representation than average.

Ararat hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Ararat's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Ararat has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (15.7%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.8%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the 35-44 age group grew from 11.1% to 13.4%, while the 25-34 cohort increased from 13.8% to 15.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.4% to 9.9% and the 55-64 group decreased from 13.8% to 12.8%. By 2041, Ararat's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 24%, reaching 1,687 from 1,355. Meanwhile, the 5-14 and 65-74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.