Ararat

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ararat's population was around 8,414 as of May 2026, a decrease of 86 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 8,500. This change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 8,399 in June 2025 and an additional 215 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was 52 persons per square kilometer. Ararat experienced a 1.0% decline between the 2021 census and May 2026, outperforming its SA3 area's decline of 1.6%. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth in recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Ararat is expected to increase its population by 647 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 7.5% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ararat recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Ararat has averaged approximately 43 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 219 homes. As of FY-26, 20 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline has resulted in adequate housing supply relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $301,000.

This financial year, $10.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Ararat shows moderately higher building activity, with 50.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This maintains reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand.

New building activity consists of 84.0% detached dwellings and 16.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 224 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Ararat is expected to grow by 632 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Ararat has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No changes can impact an area's performance more than modifications to local infrastructure, significant projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Notable projects include Western Highway Upgrade - Ararat to Stawell, Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade, Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), and Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Ararat demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Ararat has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and public administration & safety. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.7%. There are 3,580 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 1.5% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Ararat is 51.0%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. A low 7.3% of residents work from home.

Manufacturing is a particular employment specialization, with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level. However, construction is under-represented at 6.2% compared to Regional Vic.'s 10.4%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work. In the 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 1.7%, while labour force decreased by 2.0%, leading to a fall in unemployment of 3.6 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling by 0.1 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ararat's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Ararat SA2's median income among taxpayers was $49,021 and average income stood at $57,320 in the financial year 2023. This compares to Regional Vic.'s figures of $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. By March 2026, based on a 9.62% increase since financial year 2023 using Wage Price Index growth, estimated median income would be approximately $53,737 and average income around $62,834. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Ararat fall between the 14th and 24th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The earnings profile shows that 29.6% of the community earns between $1,500 - 2,999 annually (2,490 individuals), similar to regional levels where 30.3% fall within this range. Housing costs are modest with 88.2% of income retained, however total disposable income ranks at just the 19th percentile nationally.

Ararat is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Ararat, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.8% houses and 10.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Ararat was 42.2%, with the rest being mortgaged (30.6%) or rented (27.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure in Ararat was $250, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Ararat's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ararat features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.7% of all households, including 20.2% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.3%, with lone person households at 34.1% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Ararat fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 9.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (25.3%). Educational participation is high, with 30.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.3% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ararat has 64 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops offer a mix of train services and are served by 12 individual routes that collectively facilitate 275 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport options is rated as good, with residents typically residing 205 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward daily. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation for 90% of residents, while walking accounts for 7%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census data, a relatively low 7.3% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 39 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ararat is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Ararat faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial in both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (around 4,005 people), compared to 50.5% across Regional Victoria and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.1% and 10.9% of residents respectively. However, 58.6% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Victoria. Working-age residents face notable health challenges with high chronic condition rates. The area has 24.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,049 people), with senior health outcomes presenting further challenges that rank even higher than the general population nationally.

Ararat ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 81.1% of its population being citizens, 87.1% born in Australia, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ararat, comprising 44.3% of its population. The most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, which makes up 0.8% of Ararat's population compared to Regional Vic.'s 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Australian (32.1%), English (31.5%), and Scottish (9.6%). There are also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: German is overrepresented at 4.6% compared to Regional Vic.'s 3.5%, Samoan at 0.4% versus 0.1%, and Maori at 0.6% compared to 0.2%.

Ararat hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Ararat's median age is 44 years, similar to Regional Victoria's 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Regional Victoria, Ararat has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (14.7%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.9%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the proportion of Ararat's population aged 35-44 increased from 11.1% to 13.3%, while the proportion aged 45-54 decreased from 12.4% to 10.3%. By 2041, Ararat's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 28%, reaching 1,586 people from 1,238. Conversely, the 65-74 and 15-24 age groups are expected to experience population declines.