Ararat
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ararat's population was 8,500 as of 2021 Census. As of Nov 2025, it is around 8,569, an increase of 69 people (0.8%). This change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 8,332 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. Population density is 53 persons per square kilometer. Ararat's growth since 2021 exceeded SA3 area (-0.2%), primarily driven by overseas migration. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with base year 2022.

For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation method. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on latest numbers, population is projected to increase by 720 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 5.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ararat recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Ararat has granted around 43 residential properties approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 219 homes were approved, with an additional 12 approved so far in FY26. The average construction value for new properties is $301,000.

In terms of commercial approvals, Ararat has seen $10.1 million this financial year, indicating steady investment activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Ararat records elevated construction levels, with 50.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand.

Recent construction comprises 84.0% detached dwellings and 16.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes. The location has approximately 224 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Looking ahead, Ararat is expected to grow by 479 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ararat has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No local infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area. Key projects include Western Highway Upgrade - Ararat to Stawell, Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade, Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), and Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.8%, Ararat has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Ararat has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate as of June 2025 is 3.8%, matching Rest of Vic.'s rate.

There are 3,504 residents employed, but workforce participation lags at 48.4% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and public administration & safety. Manufacturing stands out with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average. However, construction is under-represented, with only 6.2% of Ararat's workforce compared to 10.4% in Rest of Vic..

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the year to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 4.1%, and employment declined by 2.7%, leading to a 1.3 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ararat's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.7% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Ararat's median income among taxpayers is $46,346. The average income in Ararat during this period was $54,693. This is below the national average. In comparison, Rest of Vic.'s median income was $48,741 with an average of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Ararat's median and average incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $51,982 and $61,344 respectively. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Ararat fall between the 14th and 25th percentiles nationally. In terms of income distribution, 29.6% of individuals in Ararat earn between $1,500 - $2,999 (2,536 individuals), which is similar to the surrounding region where this cohort represents 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 88.2% income retention, total disposable income in Ararat ranks at just the 19th percentile nationally.

Ararat is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Ararat, as per the latest Census, 89.8% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 10.2% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This is compared to Non-Metro Vic., which had 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ararat stood at 42.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.6% and rented ones at 27.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, above Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,043. The median weekly rent in Ararat was $250, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $215. Nationally, Ararat's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ararat features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 62.7 percent of all households, including 20.2 percent couples with children, 29.1 percent couples without children, and 12.2 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 37.3 percent, with lone person households at 34.1 percent and group households comprising 3.1 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Ararat fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

Ararat faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 14.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent (9.6%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are common, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (25.3%). Educational participation is high at 30.5%, comprising primary education (11.3%), secondary education (9.3%), and tertiary education (2.7%).

Seven schools operate in Ararat, educating approximately 1,393 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 974). Four primary and three secondary schools serve distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ararat has 64 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 21 different routes, collectively providing 384 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 205 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 54 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ararat is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Ararat faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. The rate of private health cover in Ararat is approximately 47%, covering around 4,044 people, which is lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.1%) and mental health issues (10.9%). Conversely, 58.6% of residents report being free from medical ailments, compared to 61.2% in the rest of Victoria. Ararat has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 24.1% (2,063 people) than Rest of Vic., which stands at 25.2%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors present challenges but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Ararat ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat, surveyed in June 2016, had below average cultural diversity with 81.1% citizens, 87.1% born in Australia, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion at 44.3%. The 'Other' category was overrepresented at 0.8%, compared to 0.5% regionally.

Top ancestry groups were Australian (32.1%), English (31.5%), and Scottish (9.6%). Notably, German (4.6%) and Samoan (0.4%) were overrepresented, while Maori was slightly higher at 0.6%.

Ararat hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Ararat's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Ararat has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (15.2%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.7%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the population aged 35-44 grew from 11.1% to 12.7%, while the 25-34 cohort increased from 13.8% to 15.2%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.4% to 10.4%. By 2041, Ararat's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 30%, reaching 1,687 people from 1,299. Meanwhile, the 45-54 and 65-74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.