Ararat

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ararat's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 8,620, showing an increase of 120 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 1.4% rise from the previous figure of 8,500. The change was inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 8,328 in June 2024 and an additional 142 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 53 persons per square kilometer. Ararat's growth rate of 1.4% exceeded that of its SA3 area (0.8%) and SA4 region, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of this population increase.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they utilize VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Ararat is expected to increase its population by approximately 720 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of about 5.0% over the 17-year period. This projected growth places Ararat just below the median for non-metropolitan areas nationally.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ararat recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Ararat has granted approximately 43 residential property approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 219 homes were approved, with an additional 17 approved so far in FY26. The average construction cost for new properties is $301,000.

This year has seen $10.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating steady investment activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Ararat records elevated construction levels, with a 50.0% increase per person over the five-year period. Recent construction comprises 84.0% detached dwellings and 16.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low density character.

The location has approximately 224 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market. Ararat is expected to grow by 428 residents by 2041, as estimated by AreaSearch's latest quarterly report. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, potentially facilitating population growth beyond projections.

Ararat has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No factor impacts an area's performance more than changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially affect this region. Key projects include the Western Highway Upgrade from Ararat to Stawell, the Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade, upgrades to the Ararat to Maryborough Line (Murray Basin Rail Project), and improvements to Melbourne-Adelaide freight rail services. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 2.7%, Ararat has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Ararat has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 2.7%. As of September 2025, 3,549 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.0% lower than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

However, workforce participation in Ararat lags behind at 51.4%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. According to Census responses, only 7.3% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and public administration & safety sectors. Manufacturing employment is notably high, at 1.9 times the regional average.

Conversely, construction employment is under-represented, with only 6.2% of Ararat's workforce compared to 10.4% in Rest of Vic.. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 4.0%, while employment declined by 1.1%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate of 2.9 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.7% and a labour force decline of 0.6%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ararat's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Ararat SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $49,021 and an average of $57,320. This is below the national average. Rest of Vic.'s median was $50,954 with an average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth, current estimates for Ararat are approximately $53,065 (median) and $62,049 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census figures place household, family and personal incomes in Ararat between the 14th and 24th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 29.6% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to the surrounding region at 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 88.2% income retention, total disposable income ranks at only the 19th percentile nationally.

Ararat is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluated Ararat's dwelling structures as 89.8% houses and 10.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro Vic.'s figures were 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ararat was 42.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.6% and rented at 27.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Ararat was $250, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Ararat's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,083 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ararat features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.7% of all households, including 20.2% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for 37.3%, with lone person households at 34.1% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Ararat fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (25.3%). Educational participation is high, with 30.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (11.3%), secondary education (9.3%), and tertiary education (2.7%).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ararat has 64 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train services. These stops are served by 12 routes, providing a total of 275 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 205 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 90%, while 7% walk. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 7.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 39 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ararat is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Ararat faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial in both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (around 4,103 people), compared to 50.5% across the rest of Victoria and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.1 and 10.9% of residents respectively. Conversely, 58.6% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across the rest of Victoria. Working-age population health challenges include elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 24.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2,075 people). Health outcomes among seniors present additional challenges, ranking higher than those of the general population nationally.

Ararat ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat had a cultural diversity below average, with 81.1% citizens, 87.1% born in Australia, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 44.3%. The 'Other' category was slightly overrepresented at 0.8%, compared to 0.8% regionally.

For ancestry, Australian (32.1%), English (31.5%), and Scottish (9.6%) were the top groups. Germans were notably overrepresented at 4.6% versus regional 3.5%. Samoans and Maori also showed higher representation than regional averages, at 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.

Ararat hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Ararat's median age of 44 years is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and well above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Ararat has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (15.2%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.7%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the population aged 35-44 increased from 11.1% to 12.7%, while the 25-34 cohort grew from 13.8% to 15.2%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.4% to 10.4%. By 2041, Ararat's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 29%, reaching 1,687 people from 1,307. Meanwhile, the 45-54 and 65-74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.