Avoca (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Avoca are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the population of Avoca (Vic.) is estimated at around 1,608 people. This reflects an increase of 252 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,356 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 1,443 following examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 52 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 15.6 persons per square kilometer. Avoca's growth rate of 18.6% since the 2021 census exceeded both the non-metro area (6.0%) and SA3 area, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering these projections, an above median population growth is projected for the area, expected to increase by 190 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 0.1% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Avoca according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Avoca has recorded around 4 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 23 homes. So far in FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. On average, 3.9 new residents are associated with every home built annually between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating demand outpaces supply which can put upward pressure on prices and increase competition among buyers.

The average value of new homes being constructed is $677,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This financial year has seen $1.2 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Rest of Vic., Avoca shows approximately 65% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 41st percentile of areas assessed nationally, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established homes. This level is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

Recent development has been entirely comprised of standalone homes, preserving Avoca's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 403 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Avoca will gain 1 resident through to 2041, based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Avoca has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region: Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade, Central Goldfields Land Use Planning Framework, and Nyaninyuk Wind Farm are key projects, with the following list focusing on those most relevant.

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The labour market performance in Avoca lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Avoca has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent.

The unemployment rate is 5.8%. Over the past year, employment growth was estimated at 9.5%. As of June 2025532 residents are employed. Avoca's unemployment rate is 2.1% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, and workforce participation is lower (43.2% vs 57.4%).

Key employment sectors include agriculture, forestry & fishing, manufacturing, and health care & social assistance. Agriculture, forestry & fishing jobs are particularly high, at 1.9 times the regional level. Construction jobs are under-represented, with only 7.2% of Avoca's workforce compared to 10.4% in Rest of Vic. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities. In the year ending June 2025, employment increased by 9.5%, labour force grew by 7.8%, and unemployment fell by 1.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment fell by 0.9%, labour force contracted by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts from Sep-22 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Avoca's employment mix, local employment is expected to increase by 5.1% in five years and 11.6% in ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Avoca's median income among taxpayers was $43,034 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $51,170 during the same period. These figures are lower than those for Rest of Vic., which had a median income of $48,741 and an average income of $60,693. By September 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16%, Avoca's estimated median income would be approximately $48,267 and the average income would be around $57,392. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Avoca fall between the 1st and 4th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. In terms of income distribution, 33.8% of Avoca's population (543 individuals) earn within the $400 - $799 range, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 30.3%. Notably, 43.7% of households in Avoca earn below $800 weekly, indicating affordability pressures for many residents. Despite modest housing costs with 88.4% of income retained, total disposable income ranks at just the 4th percentile nationally.

Avoca is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Avoca's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 96.0% houses and 4.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 93.8% houses and 6.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Avoca stood at 53.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.4% and rented ones at 17.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,056, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,127. Median weekly rent in Avoca was $210, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $230. Nationally, Avoca's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863 and rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Avoca features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 62.3% of all households, including 19.9% couples with children, 31.4% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.7%, with lone person households at 35.7% and group households making up 1.4%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Avoca faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.8%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (9.3%) and certificates (29.1%). Educational participation is high at 25.4%, including 10.0% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Avoca Primary School serves the area with an enrollment of 107 students. The school's ICSEA score is 951, indicating typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities. It caters exclusively to primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas. The area has fewer school places per 100 residents (6.7) compared to the regional average (10.7), suggesting some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Avoca has three operational public transport stops, all offering bus services. These stops are served by four distinct routes that together facilitate 13 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transports is limited, with residents generally residing 648 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, each route provides one trip per day, resulting in approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Avoca is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Avoca faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 47% (~758 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.2%) and mental health issues (9.7%). Conversely, 58.3% report no medical ailments, compared to 56.8% in Rest of Vic. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 31.9% (512 people), compared to the state average of 27.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Avoca placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Avoca's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 88.7% being citizens, 91.3% born in Australia, and 98.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 47.2%. The 'Other' category had a slight overrepresentation at 0.6%, compared to Rest of Vic's 0.6%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (35.0%), English (34.8%), and Scottish (10.1%) were the top groups. Some ethnicities showed notable differences: Hungarian was higher at 0.6% in Avoca vs regional 0.3%, Dutch at 2.0% vs 1.6%, and Irish at 8.9% vs 9.2%.

Avoca ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Avoca's median age is 50, surpassing Rest of Vic.'s figure of 43 and the national average of 38. The 65-74 age group constitutes 17.3% of Avoca's population, higher than Rest of Vic.'s percentage but lower than the national average of 9.4%. Meanwhile, the 25-34 cohort makes up 8.7% of Avoca's population. Post-2021 Census, the 55 to 64 age group grew from 12.4% to 14.1%, and the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 9.4% to 11.0%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 12.7% to 10.2%, and the 65 to 74 group decreased from 19.5% to 17.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Avoca's age profile, with the 25-34 cohort expected to grow by 51 people (37%), from 139 to 191. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 55-64 cohorts.