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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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St Arnaud has an estimated 3,394 residents, down from 3,453 at the 2021 Census — a change of 59 people, or 1.7%. Fewer than ten people live on each square kilometre, across a boundary that takes in surrounding rural land. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to research by AreaSearch, St Arnaud has a population of approximately 3,394 as of May 2026. This represents a reduction of 59 individuals (1.7%) relative to the 3,453 residents recorded in the 2021 Census. The calculation is derived from the ABS estimated resident population of 3,394 for June 2025 alongside 17 validated new addresses registered after the Census. This population level corresponds to a density of 1.1 persons per square kilometer, which indicates a low-density environment with substantial personal space. The contraction of -1.7% in St Arnaud since the census aligns closely with the SA3 region's trend of -1.6%, showing consistent demographic patterns throughout the wider area.
Gains in the local population were almost exclusively supported by overseas migration, which served as the sole source of population growth in recent times. Projections from ABS and Geoscience Australia, published in 2024 with a 2022 baseline, are utilised for each SA2 region. In instances where specific SA2 statistics are unavailable, estimations are formulated using the 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA projections, adjusting them through a weighted aggregation of population changes from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates across different age cohorts from these aggregations are also projected forward for the period spanning 2032 to 2041. Future demographic forecasts indicate that the area will experience population growth slightly below the median for regional Australia, with an projected increase of 409 residents to 2041 relative to the most recent annual ERP data, representing a total rise of 12.1% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
27 new dwellings have been approved in St Arnaud over the past five years, an average of 5 a year. That is 1.6 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 17, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
St Arnaud has averaged approximately 5 residential building approvals annually, translating to a total of 27 dwellings over the last 5 financial years. Thus far in FY-26, 16 approvals have been documented. Because the local population has decreased recently, the volume of new housing has likely matched demand, providing sufficient options for purchasers. Newly built properties carry an average construction value of $223,000, which sits below the regional average and points to more economical housing alternatives. Additionally, commercial approvals worth $7.0 million have been logged during this financial year, highlighting that the locality remains predominantly residential.
St Arnaud exhibits significantly lower development activity when compared to Rest of Vic. (55.0% below the regional average per capita). This low level of new building supply generally helps bolster demand and values for existing properties. The volume of approvals is also below the national average, reflecting the established status of the area and pointing to potential planning limitations. Furthermore, recent construction approvals consist entirely of separate houses, preserving the classic low-density environment with a focus on single-family properties that appeal to buyers wanting space. The ratio of 1133 residents for each dwelling approval highlights the quiet nature of local construction activity. Forecasts suggest that St Arnaud will add 409 residents up to 2041 based on the most recent quarterly estimate from AreaSearch. Should current construction rates persist, the supply of new housing may fall short of population growth, which could increase competition among buyers and lead to stronger price appreciation.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around St Arnaud
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks one current infrastructure or development project inside St Arnaud. A further 70 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $2.39 billion. 11 are already under construction and 26 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, education & training and transport & logistics. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Changes in local infrastructure projects and planning programs are major drivers of regional performance. AreaSearch has identified 1 project that is expected to affect the local area. Relevant initiatives include the Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements, the Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), the Central Goldfields Land Use Planning Framework, and the Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade, with specific details on the most important projects provided below.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements
Enhancing the Melbourne to Adelaide freight rail to allow double-stacked containers by addressing 1,020 clearance obstructions, potentially reducing costs by 6% and increasing capacity by 48%.
Kooka's Country Cookies New Manufacturing Facility
Expansion and relocation of Kooka's Country Cookies to a larger facility in Donald, supported by government funding. The new facility will triple production capacity to around 29,500 kg of biscuits per week, create up to 11 new full-time jobs, and include a new gluten-free area and solar power.
Donald's Tramsformation
A decommissioned tram has arrived at Donald Railway Station to be transformed into a community space, aiming to create a vibrant hub for locals and tourists, celebrating the town's history and fostering community connections.
Tower Rd, Donald
A residential masterplan for 59 two-storey and three-storey townhouses incorporating a heritage-listed water tower.
Corack Road Service Station & Food Premises
Proposal for a 24-hour unmanned service station with food and drink premises, associated buildings, and signage at 39 Corack Road, Donald. The application includes plans for fuel storage and wastewater treatment.
Carisbrook Flood Management Plan Review and Levee Implementation
Central Goldfields Shire Council is updating the Carisbrook Flood Management Plan and reviewing levee implementation after the completed western levee and the 2024 independent review. The current work includes hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, calibration to the 2010, 2011 and 2022 flood events, climate change scenarios, review of the existing levee and flood infrastructure, flood warning and emergency management inputs, and assessment of further mitigation options for Carisbrook and nearby catchments.
Corack East Wind Project
A large-scale wind energy project proposed by ACEN Australia in the Buloke Shire, located on privately owned land between Donald, Birchip, and Wycheproof. It is currently in the early development stage with construction proposed to begin in 2029.
Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project)
Reopening and subsequent upgrades of the 88 km Maryborough-Ararat freight line (Avoca line) as part of the Murray Basin Rail Project. Works delivered standard gauge, 21-tonne axle loading, new 47 kg rail and ballast, a new passing loop at Elmhurst (mid-2024), and associated junction/signalling upgrades. The line is operational; further signalling works around Maryborough continue under the broader program.
1,576 residents of St Arnaud are employed, from a labour force of 1,611. Unemployment sits at 2.2%, with participation at 56.6%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 5.3% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
St Arnaud is characterized by a workforce divided between white-collar and blue-collar roles across a variety of industries, with an unemployment rate of only 2.2%. In March 2026, there are 1,576 employed residents, representing an unemployment rate 1.5% lower than the Regional Vic. average of 3.7%. The participation rate is somewhat lower than the regional benchmark, sitting at 56.6% compared to 61.1% in Regional Vic. Census data indicates that a low proportion of residents (13.1%) worked from home, although this figure may be influenced by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. The primary sectors employing local residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.
The locality shows a high concentration of jobs in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with a share that is 3.7 times the regional average. Conversely, construction accounts for only 4.7% of local employment, which is lower than the Regional Vic. figure of 10.4%. The comparison between the local Census working population and the resident population suggests a limited number of local employment opportunities. Based on an analysis of SALM and ABS data by AreaSearch, the local labour force contracted by 3.4% over the 12-month period, while employment fell by 1.3%, resulting in a 2.1 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate. Over the same timeframe, Regional Vic. saw employment fall by 0.1%, labour force decline by 0.3%, and the unemployment rate decrease by 0.2 percentage points. Projections published in May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia provide further context regarding prospective employment demand in St Arnaud. These five-year and ten-year projections have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future employment trends. Nationally, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though individual sector growth rates vary. Applying these industry projections to the employment profile of St Arnaud yields an estimated local employment increase of 5.3% over five years and 12.0% over ten years, serving as a basic weighted calculation that does not incorporate local population growth forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in St Arnaud is $993 a week (about $52,000 a year), with median personal income at $597 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $45,536 a year against an average of $57,323. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
According to the latest ATO data for financial year 2023 at the postcode level, individual incomes in the St Arnaud SA2 are below the national average. The median income is recorded at $45,536 and the average income is $57,323. In comparison, Regional Vic. shows a median income of $50,954 and an average of $62,728. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, updated estimates as of March 2026 stand at roughly $49,917 for the median and $62,837 for the average. Based on the 2021 Census, household, family, and individual incomes in St Arnaud all place between the 3rd and 11th percentiles nationally.
Regarding the distribution of income, the largest bracket contains 31.7% of residents (1,075 people) earning between $400 - 799 weekly, whereas the leading bracket for the wider region is $1,500 - 2,999 at 30.3%. A high proportion of low-income earners (40.6% earning below $800/week) points to limited household budgets for many in this area. Although housing expenses are low, leaving residents with 91.6% of their income, total disposable income sits in the 8th percentile nationwide.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
St Arnaud had 1,478 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 96% detached houses and 0% apartments. 27% are owned with a mortgage, 16% rented and 57% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $182 a week and the median mortgage repayment $867 a month. Rent absorbs 18.3% of household income here and mortgage repayments 20.1%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the most recent Census, the mix of housing types in St Arnaud consisted of 95.7% detached houses and 4.3% other forms of housing (such as semi-detached properties, apartments, and alternative dwellings), compared to 90.1% houses and 9.9% other options in Regional Vic. The rate of outright home ownership in St Arnaud is high at 57.0%, with the remaining properties occupied by residents with a mortgage (26.7%) or renting (16.3%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $867 was lower than the Regional Vic. average, while the median weekly rent was $182, compared to regional averages of $1,430 and $285 respectively.
On a national scale, mortgage payments in St Arnaud are substantially lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are also well below the national median of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
St Arnaud counted 1,478 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.1 people each. 21% are couples with children, fewer than in 85% of areas nationally, against 29% couples without children. 38% of households are people living alone, and families average 2.1 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family households make up 59.8% of the local dwelling occupancy, consisting of couples with children at 20.7%, couples without children at 29.3%, and single-parent households at 8.6%. The remaining 40.2% are non-family households, which are predominantly single-person households at 38.0% and group households at 2.4%. The median household size of 2.1 people is lower than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
13.1% of adults in St Arnaud hold a university qualification, including 9.8% with a bachelor degree and 1.1% with postgraduate qualifications, lower than 75% of areas nationally. A further 30.0% hold a vocational qualification. 5 schools serve the area, with 385 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 980 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
The locality displays low levels of higher education, with university graduation rates at 13.1%, which is significantly below the VIC state average of 33.4%. This highlights a clear area of need for targeted educational programs. Bachelor degrees represent the most common higher qualification at 9.8%, followed by graduate diplomas at 2.2% and postgraduate degrees at 1.1%. Vocational and technical training is common, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding a vocational qualification, consisting of advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (30.0%). A total of 24.5% of local residents are enrolled in formal education.
Within this group, 9.7% attend primary school, 7.2% attend secondary school, and 2.0% are enrolled in tertiary programs.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Getting around St Arnaud means driving: households keep an average of 1.6 vehicles, and scheduled services reach only a handful of stops. Service data is built from operators' published GTFS timetables; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
An analysis of public transport reveals that there are 12 transport stops in St Arnaud. These stops are served by 5 distinct routes, which provide 25 passenger services each week. Local transport accessibility is low, with residents living an average of 682 meters from the nearest stop. Due to the residential character of the area, most workers commute out of the suburb, with private vehicles being the primary mode of travel for 86% of commuters, while 10% walk to work. Households own an average of 1.6 vehicles. A low proportion of residents (13.1%) worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect the pandemic conditions at the time.
Average service frequency is 3 trips per day across the local routes, which translates to approximately 2 weekly services for each transport stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
58.9% of residents in St Arnaud report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 80% of areas nationally. 9.0% need daily assistance with core activities, and 47.6% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 6.3 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic health conditions, St Arnaud faces notable health difficulties. These issues are present in both younger and older cohorts, and the rate of private health insurance is low, covering approximately 48% of the population (~1,615 people). This compares to 50.5% in Regional Vic. and a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical diagnoses in the locality are arthritis (11.9% of residents) and mental health conditions (9.4%). Meanwhile, 58.9% of the population reported no chronic health conditions, compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic.
Residents of working age show high rates of chronic illness. People aged 65 and over make up 29.4% of the population (997 people), which is higher than the Regional Vic. average of 23.9%, showing higher national rankings than the population as a whole.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
St Arnaud is largely Australian-born, at 93.4% of residents, with 2.6% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (35.2%) and Australian (33.0%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
St Arnaud exhibits a lower level of cultural diversity compared to national averages, with citizens making up 90.7% of the population, 93.4% of residents born in Australia, and 97.4% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the primary religion, representing the faith of 57.4% of residents, compared to 47.3% across Regional Vic. Based on parental country of birth, the main ancestries represented in St Arnaud are English at 35.2%, Australian at 33.0%, and Irish at 9.8%. There are also distinct concentrations of other ancestries: Scottish is higher at 9.5% of St Arnaud (compared to 8.8% regionally), Maltese is at 0.4% (compared to 0.5% regionally), and German is at 3.0% (compared to 3.5% regionally).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of St Arnaud is 51, older than 94% of areas nationally. That is 1 year younger than at the 2021 Census. 18.6% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of 51 years in St Arnaud is higher than both the Regional Vic. median of 43 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Regional Vic., the 65 - 74 age group is larger (15.8% of the local population), while the 15 - 24 age bracket is smaller (9.3%). The proportion of residents aged 65 - 74 is also higher than the national figure of 9.4%. Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 cohort has increased from 8.4% to 10.1% of the population. In contrast, the 45 to 54 group decreased from 12.8% to 10.7%, and the 55 to 64 bracket fell from 16.6% to 15.1%.
By 2041, demographic shifts are expected to alter the local age profile. The 45 to 54 group is projected to grow by 41% (149 people) to reach 511 from 361. Conversely, the population in the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 age brackets is expected to decline.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for St Arnaud
8 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 8 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 3 sections | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Jul 2025 about a year ago all 1 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Jul 2025. | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 17 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (3,453 at the 2021 Census → 3,394 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (215011391). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.