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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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St Arnaud has an estimated 3,394 residents, down from 3,453 at the 2021 Census — a change of 59 people, or 1.7%. Fewer than ten people live on each square kilometre, across a boundary that takes in surrounding rural land. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to research conducted by AreaSearch, the resident count in St Arnaud stands at roughly 3,394 as of Aug 2026. Relative to the 2021 Census tally of 3,453 people, this represents a reduction of 59 people (-1.7%). This demographic shift is derived from the ABS estimated resident population figure of 3,394 as of June 2025 alongside an intake of 17 validated new addresses following the Census. The resulting population density is 1.1 persons per square kilometer, offering local occupants substantial space. The area's -1.7% contraction since census closely mirrors the wider SA3 area (-1.6%) by remaining within 0.1 percentage points, pointing to broad regional population headwinds.
Inbound overseas migration served as the primary demographic catalyst, functioning practically as the exclusive source of population expansion in recent times. SA2 projections published by ABS/Geoscience Australia in 2024 (anchored to a 2022 baseline) are utilized by AreaSearch. For SA2 territories omitted from that release, AreaSearch applies the 2023 Victorian State Government Regional/LGA projections via a weighted aggregation methodology translating LGA gains to the SA2 level. These aggregated age-cohort growth rates are extended across every district for 2032 to 2041. In light of anticipated structural demographic adjustments, local population growth is projected to track marginally below the national non-metropolitan median, expanding by 402 persons to 2041 according to recent annual ERP data, which equates to an overall 11.8% expansion across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
32 new dwellings have been approved in St Arnaud over the past five years, an average of 6 a year. That is 1.9 approvals per 1,000 residents. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Development approvals in St Arnaud have averaged roughly 6 dwellings annually, generating 32 homes across the preceding 5 financial years. Given recent population contractions, residential building volume has comfortably satisfied local requirements, maintaining an evenly balanced environment with ample options for purchasers, alongside an average building cost of $380,000 per new residence that matches wider regional standards. Furthermore, commercial building approvals reached $7.0 million during this financial year, reflecting modest activity within non-residential development. New residential approval volumes per capita in St Arnaud sit at roughly two-thirds the level seen across Rest of Vic., placing the locality in the 41st percentile across the nation; this restrained pipeline limits buyer supply and underpins demand across established housing stock, notwithstanding a recent uptick in building activity.
This approval pace tracks below the nationwide norm, highlighting the established nature of the town and hinting at potential planning constraints. The composition of approved residential construction includes 71.0% detached houses alongside 29.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the historic low-density landscape while supplying family-focused layouts for buyers wanting space. This marks a notable pivot from existing housing stock (presently 96.0% houses), which stems from a tightening pool of development sites while adapting to evolving lifestyle preferences and budget considerations. A metric of 674 people per approved dwelling underscores the peaceful, low-intensity construction landscape. Projections indicate that St Arnaud will add 402 residents through to 2041 (benchmarked against the newest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should residential construction persist at historical levels, new additions may lag behind population growth, which could heighten buyer demand and encourage accelerated property value gains.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around St Arnaud
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks one current infrastructure or development project inside St Arnaud. A further 70 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $2.39 billion. 11 are already under construction and 26 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, education & training and transport & logistics. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Capital investments, major public works, and planning frameworks play an essential role in driving regional progression. AreaSearch has identified a single project expected to influence the district. Strategic developments noted include the Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements, Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), Central Goldfields Land Use Planning Framework, and Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade, with relevant initiatives outlined below.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements
Enhancing the Melbourne to Adelaide freight rail to allow double-stacked containers by addressing 1,020 clearance obstructions, potentially reducing costs by 6% and increasing capacity by 48%.
Kooka's Country Cookies New Manufacturing Facility
Expansion and relocation of Kooka's Country Cookies to a larger facility in Donald, supported by government funding. The new facility will triple production capacity to around 29,500 kg of biscuits per week, create up to 11 new full-time jobs, and include a new gluten-free area and solar power.
Donald's Tramsformation
A decommissioned tram has arrived at Donald Railway Station to be transformed into a community space, aiming to create a vibrant hub for locals and tourists, celebrating the town's history and fostering community connections.
Tower Rd, Donald
A residential masterplan for 59 two-storey and three-storey townhouses incorporating a heritage-listed water tower.
Corack Road Service Station & Food Premises
Proposal for a 24-hour unmanned service station with food and drink premises, associated buildings, and signage at 39 Corack Road, Donald. The application includes plans for fuel storage and wastewater treatment.
Carisbrook Flood Management Plan Review and Levee Implementation
Central Goldfields Shire Council is updating the Carisbrook Flood Management Plan and reviewing levee implementation after the completed western levee and the 2024 independent review. The current work includes hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, calibration to the 2010, 2011 and 2022 flood events, climate change scenarios, review of the existing levee and flood infrastructure, flood warning and emergency management inputs, and assessment of further mitigation options for Carisbrook and nearby catchments.
Corack East Wind Project
A large-scale wind energy project proposed by ACEN Australia in the Buloke Shire, located on privately owned land between Donald, Birchip, and Wycheproof. It is currently in the early development stage with construction proposed to begin in 2029.
Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project)
Reopening and subsequent upgrades of the 88 km Maryborough-Ararat freight line (Avoca line) as part of the Murray Basin Rail Project. Works delivered standard gauge, 21-tonne axle loading, new 47 kg rail and ballast, a new passing loop at Elmhurst (mid-2024), and associated junction/signalling upgrades. The line is operational; further signalling works around Maryborough continue under the broader program.
1,576 residents of St Arnaud are employed, from a labour force of 1,611. Unemployment sits at 2.2%, with participation at 56.7%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 5.3% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local economy in St Arnaud features an even mix of white-collar and blue-collar roles across multiple industries, accompanied by an unemployment rate of only 2.2%. As of March 2026, employed locals number 1,576, keeping unemployment 1.5% below the Regional Vic. benchmark of 3.7%, whereas the labour participation rate remains somewhat subdued at 56.7% versus 61.1% across Regional Vic.. Census data indicated that a modest 13.1% of workers carried out their duties from home, though pandemic-era confinement measures likely influenced this figure. Local workforce participation is primarily clustered in agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.
The region demonstrates pronounced industry concentration in agriculture, forestry & fishing, generating an employment concentration 3.7 times the regional benchmark. Conversely, construction exhibits lower engagement, representing 4.7% of the St Arnaud workforce compared to 10.4% in Regional Vic.. Comparing resident employment to local Census workplace counts highlights a constrained local job market. Based on an analysis of SALM and ABS data conducted by AreaSearch, the twelve-month period recorded a 3.4% decrease in the labour force alongside a 1.3% decline in employment, which caused the unemployment rate to drop by 2.1 percentage points. Meanwhile, the Regional Vic. area witnessed a 0.1% reduction in employment and a 0.3% reduction in the labour force, leading to a 0.2 percentage point decrease. Jobs and Skills Australia released national employment forecasts for Mar-26 to provide additional context regarding potential future demand in St Arnaud. These projections span five and ten-year timeframes and were overlaid with the local employment profile to estimate future growth patterns. Although national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, expansion rates vary considerably across different industry sectors. When these sector-specific forecasts are applied to St Arnaud's employment mix, the result indicates that local employment should rise by 5.3% over five years and 12.0% over ten years, though it is important to note that this simple weighting extrapolation is for illustrative purposes only and does not incorporate localised population projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in St Arnaud is $993 a week (about $52,000 a year), with median personal income at $597 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $45,536 a year against an average of $57,323. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
ATO postcode figures compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023 show local earnings in the St Arnaud SA2 tracking beneath countrywide averages, featuring a median of $45,536 and a mean of $57,323. In comparison, Regional Vic. generated a median income of $50,954 and an average of $62,728. Factoring in Wage Price Index appreciation of 9.62% since financial year 2023, updated estimates reach approximately $49,917 (median) and $62,837 (average) as of March 2026. The 2021 Census placed personal, family, and household earnings in St Arnaud between the 3rd and 11th percentiles nationally.
Income distribution figures indicate that the single largest group consists of 31.7% earning $400 - 799 weekly (1,075 residents), whereas the wider regional market is led by the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket at 30.3%. The concentration of lower-earning individuals (40.6% under $800/week) illustrates tight financial headroom for many households. Even with modest shelter outlays allowing residents to keep 91.6% of income, overall net disposable funds sit at only the 8th percentile nationwide.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
St Arnaud had 1,478 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 96% detached houses and 0% apartments. 27% are owned with a mortgage, 16% rented and 57% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $182 a week and the median mortgage repayment $867 a month. Rent absorbs 18.3% of household income here and mortgage repayments 20.1%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
At the latest Census, the housing inventory in St Arnaud consisted of 95.7% houses and 4.3% other dwellings (incorporating semi-detached units, apartments, and alternative shelter types), compared to 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings across Regional Vic.. Outright ownership reached 57.0%, substantially exceeding the regional benchmark, while remaining properties were divided between mortgaged (26.7%) and rented (16.3%) tenures. Typical monthly loan repayments stood at $867, well below the Regional Vic. average of $1,430, while typical weekly rent was $182 compared to $285 regionally. On a countrywide scale, mortgage commitments in St Arnaud sit significantly beneath the Australian norm of $1,863, and rental rates remain markedly lower than the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
St Arnaud counted 1,478 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.1 people each. 21% are couples with children, fewer than in 85% of areas nationally, against 29% couples without children. 38% of households are people living alone, and families average 2.1 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family units constitute the majority of dwellings at 59.8%, comprising 20.7% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. The remaining 40.2% consists of non-family arrangements, dominated by single-person residences at 38.0% and group housing making up 2.4%. With a median size of 2.1 people, local households are smaller than the Regional Vic. norm of 2.4.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
13.1% of adults in St Arnaud hold a university qualification, including 9.8% with a bachelor degree and 1.1% with postgraduate qualifications, lower than 75% of areas nationally. A further 30.0% hold a vocational qualification. 5 schools serve the area, with 385 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 980 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Attainment levels highlight educational challenges across the community, where tertiary degree completion stands at 13.1%, substantially trailing the VIC benchmark of 33.4%. This gap underscores opportunities for targeted educational pathways. Bachelor degrees account for 9.8%, with graduate diplomas at 2.2% and postgraduate qualifications at 1.1%. Vocational and trade training is widespread, with 39.8% of individuals aged 15+ holding technical qualifications, split between advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (30.0%). An active cohort of 24.5% of residents participates in formal schooling. Within this learning demographic, primary education engages 9.7%, secondary schooling accounts for 7.2%, and higher education accounts for 2.0%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Getting around St Arnaud means driving: households keep an average of 1.6 vehicles, and scheduled services reach only a handful of stops. Service data is built from operators' published GTFS timetables; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transit coverage in St Arnaud comprises 12 active passenger stops. A network of 5 routes operates across these facilities, delivering a combined 28 weekly passenger trips. Public transit access is comparatively low, with an average distance of 682 meters separating dwellings from the closest boarding point. Serving mainly as a dormitory community, travel is predominantly outbound, with private vehicles accounting for 86% of commuting and walking representing 10%. Dwellings maintain an average of 1.6 vehicles. A comparatively low 13.1% of workers worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-era conditions.
Transit service frequency across the network provides an average of 4 trips per day, which translates to roughly 2 weekly trips at each boarding stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
58.9% of residents in St Arnaud report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 80% of areas nationally. 9.0% need daily assistance with core activities, and 47.6% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 6.3 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health indicators compiled by AreaSearch highlight meaningful hurdles in St Arnaud, evidenced by elevated mortality metrics and persistent chronic ailments across both younger and older cohorts, alongside a low rate of private health cover encompassing approximately 48% of residents (~1,615 people). This compares to 50.5% throughout Regional Vic. and a nationwide figure of 55.7%. Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent health issues recorded locally, affecting 11.9 and 9.4% of residents, respectively, whereas 58.9% indicated an absence of long-term medical conditions compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic.. Chronic ailments place notable pressure on the working-age cohort.
Furthermore, seniors aged 65 and over make up 30.9% of the population (1,048 people), outstripping the 24.0% regional proportion and driving chronic condition metrics well above national levels.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
St Arnaud is largely Australian-born, at 93.4% of residents, with 2.6% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (35.2%) and Australian (33.0%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity in St Arnaud ranks below national standards, with Australian citizens making up 90.7% of the populace, 93.4% born in Australia, and 97.4% using only English at home. Christianity represents the leading religious affiliation, observed by 57.4% of local residents, compared to 47.3% across Regional Vic.. Looking at parental lineage, the primary reported ancestries in St Arnaud are English at 35.2%, Australian at 33.0%, and Irish at 9.8%. Other ancestral groups show variations from regional patterns: Scottish background represents 9.5% locally (vs 8.8% regionally), Maltese comprises 0.4% (vs 0.5%), and German accounts for 3.0% (vs 3.5%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of St Arnaud is 51, older than 94% of areas nationally. That is 1 year younger than at the 2021 Census. 18.0% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
St Arnaud exhibits an older age demographic compared to Regional Vic.. AreaSearch projections for August 2026 place 30.9% of the population in the senior and retiree bracket (65+) compared to 24.0% regionally, while young to middle-aged cohorts (25 - 44) account for only 18.1% versus 23.1% in the wider region. The estimated median age stands at 51 as at August 2026, slightly down from 52 at the 2021 Census, yet 8 years higher than the Regional Vic. median of 43 and above the national figure of 38 recorded at that Census.
The most noticeable demographic shift since the Census occurred in the 45 - 64 age bracket, which declined from 29.4% to an estimated 25.3% of the community. Heading towards 2041, young to middle-aged adults will drive demographic expansion, adding 175 residents (29%) to reach 789, while elderly cohorts are forecast to contract.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for St Arnaud
8 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 8 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · Jun 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 last month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 6 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 2 months ago all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 3 sections | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Jul 2025 about a year ago all 1 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Jul 2025. | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 17 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (3,453 at the 2021 Census → 3,394 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (215011391). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.