St Arnaud

An assessment of population growth drivers in St Arnaud reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

St Arnaud's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, was approximately 3,412 by November 2025. This figure shows a decrease of 41 individuals, representing a 1.2% drop from the 2021 Census total of 3,453 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,408 in June 2024 and an additional 16 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was around 1.1 persons per square kilometer at this time. St Arnaud's population decline of -1.2% since the census is comparable to the SA3 area's change of -0.2%, indicating similar demographic trends across the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.5% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a weighted aggregation method to reach SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, St Arnaud is expected to experience population growth just below the median of Australia's regional areas, with an increase of 446 persons projected by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 12.9% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in St Arnaud is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

St Arnaud has recorded approximately five residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling 27 homes. As of FY-26, 15 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.4 new residents arrive per new home constructed annually between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction cost of new properties is $223,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options. In FY-26, $7.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, St Arnaud has significantly less development activity, with 54.0% fewer approvals per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, which is also below average nationally, indicating possible planning constraints. Recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1140 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. Population forecasts indicate St Arnaud will gain 440 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

St Arnaud has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region. Key projects are Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements, Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), Central Goldfields Land Use Planning Framework, and Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in St Arnaud exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

St Arnaud has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, representing diverse sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.3%.

As of September 2025, 1,589 residents are employed, which is 1.5% below the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in St Arnaud is lower at 51.6%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Major employment sectors include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Agriculture, forestry & fishing dominate with an employment share 3.7 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction employs only 4.7% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 10.4%. The area may have limited local job opportunities as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force decreased by 4.5%, employment by 2.0%, leading to a 2.5 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In comparison, Rest of Vic. had an employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%, with a marginal rise in unemployment. State-wide, as of 25-Nov-25, VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to St Arnaud's employment mix indicates local employment should grow by 5.3% over five years and 12.0% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for local population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended June 2022 shows median income in St Arnaud SA2 was $43,101 and average income was $51,473. This is below national averages of median $56,891 and average $66,865 respectively. In Rest of Vic., median income was $48,741 and average was $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.16% from July 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income in St Arnaud is approximately $48,342 and average is around $57,732. Census 2021 data indicates incomes in St Arnaud are between the 3rd and 11th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Predominant income cohort in St Arnaud is 31.7% (1,081 people) earning $400 - $799 weekly. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s leading bracket is $1,500 - $2,999 at 30.3%. Over 40.6% of St Arnaud residents earn less than $800 weekly, suggesting constrained household budgets. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 91.6% income retention, total disposable income ranks at the 8th percentile nationally.

St Arnaud is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

St Arnaud's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 95.7% houses and 4.3% other dwellings. In contrast, Non-Metro Vic. had 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in St Arnaud was at 57.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.7% and rented ones at 16.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $867, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,043. Weekly rent in St Arnaud was recorded at $182, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $215. Nationally, St Arnaud's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

St Arnaud features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 59.8 percent of all households, including 20.7 percent couples with children, 29.3 percent couples without children, and 8.6 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 40.2 percent, with lone person households at 38.0 percent and group households comprising 2.4 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

Educational outcomes in St Arnaud fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.8% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (30.0%). A total of 24.5% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, comprising 9.7% in primary, 7.2% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 12 active transport stops operating within St Arnaud. These comprise a mix of buses serviced by 10 individual routes collectively providing 40 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited with residents typically located 682 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 5 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 3 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in St Arnaud is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

St Arnaud faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 46% (1,583 people), compared to 48.8% in the rest of Victoria and a national average of 55.3%. The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (11.9%) and mental health issues (9.4%).

Conversely, 58.9% report no medical ailments, slightly lower than the 61.2% in the rest of Victoria. St Arnaud has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 28.7% (977 people), compared to 25.2% in the rest of Victoria.

The latest Census data sees St Arnaud placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Arnaud's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 90.7% of its population being Australian citizens, 93.4% born in Australia, and 97.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in St Arnaud as of 2016, accounting for 57.4% of people, compared to 51.6% across Victoria excluding Melbourne (Rest of Vic.). In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English at 35.2%, Australian at 33.0%, and Irish at 9.8%.

Notably, Scottish ancestry was overrepresented in St Arnaud at 9.5%, compared to 9.0% regionally. Similarly, Maltese ancestry was higher at 0.4% than the regional average of 0.2%. However, German ancestry was underrepresented at 3.0%, with a regional average of 6.6%.

St Arnaud ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

St Arnaud's median age is 51 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of Vic. average of 43 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Rest of Vic., the 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in St Arnaud at 15.8%, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 8.8%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 8.4% to 10.3%, and the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 8.7% to 10.0%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.8% to 11.2%, and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 16.6% to 15.5%. By 2041, St Arnaud is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 45 to 54 group is projected to grow by 38%, reaching 526 people from 380. Meanwhile, population declines are forecast for the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 cohorts.