St Arnaud

An assessment of population growth drivers in St Arnaud reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, St Arnaud's population is around 3,414 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a decrease of 39 people (1.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,453 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,406 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 17 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1.1 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. While St Arnaud experienced a 1.1% decline since the census, the SA3 area achieved 1.0% growth, highlighting divergent population trends. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 89.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a population increase just below the median of Australia's regional areas is expected, with the area expected to expand by 446 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 12.8% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in St Arnaud is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

St Arnaud has recorded around 5 residential properties granted approval per year, totalling 27 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 16 approvals have been recorded. At an average of just 0.4 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $223,000—below the regional average—suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Additionally, $7.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

Compared to the rest of Victoria, St Arnaud has significantly less development activity (54.0% below the regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. This is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. Further, recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 1140 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low-activity development environment.

Population forecasts indicate St Arnaud will gain 438 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

St Arnaud has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects and planning initiatives. In total, 1 single project has been identified by AreaSearch that is likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements, Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), Central Goldfields Land Use Planning Framework, and Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade, with the below list detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

St Arnaud ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

St Arnaud features a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of just 1.8%, and 1.1% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 1,603 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.9% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (57.1% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%). Based on Census responses, a low 13.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area has particular employment specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share of 3.7 times the regional level. In contrast, construction employs just 4.7% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 10.4%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 1.1% alongside labour force decreasing by 2.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 3.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional Vic., where employment contracted by 0.6%, the labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within St Arnaud. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to St Arnaud's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.3% over five years and 12.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the St Arnaud SA2 is lower than average on a national basis, with the median assessed at $45,536 while the average income stands at $57,323. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $49,293 (median) and $62,052 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in St Arnaud all fall between the 3rd and 11th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate the $400 - 799 earnings band captures 31.7% of the community (1,082 individuals), contrasting with the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 30.3%. Lower income households are notably prevalent, with 40.6% earning below $800 weekly, indicating affordability pressures for many residents. While housing costs are modest with 91.6% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 8th percentile nationally.

St Arnaud is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within St Arnaud, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 95.7% houses and 4.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within St Arnaud was well beyond that of Regional Vic., at 57.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (26.7%) or rented (16.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional Vic. average at $867, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $182, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, St Arnaud's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

St Arnaud features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 59.8% of all households, comprising 20.7% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 40.2%, with lone person households at 38.0% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.1 people is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in St Arnaud fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (13.1%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 9.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (30.0%).

A substantial 24.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 12 active transport stops operating within St Arnaud. These stops are serviced by 5 individual routes, collectively providing 25 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 682 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - the car remains the dominant mode at 86%, with 10% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling. A relatively low 13.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 3 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in St Arnaud is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing St Arnaud, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~1,625 people). This compares to 50.5% across Regional Vic. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.9% and 9.4% of residents, respectively, while 58.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 28.3% of residents aged 65 and over (966 people), which is higher than the 23.9% in Regional Vic., with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The latest Census data sees St Arnaud placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Arnaud was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 90.7% of its population being citizens, 93.4% born in Australia, and 97.4% speaking English only at home. The main religion in St Arnaud is Christianity, which makes up 57.4% of people in St Arnaud. This compares to 47.3% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in St Arnaud are English, comprising 35.2% of the population, Australian, comprising 33.0% of the population, and Irish, comprising 9.8% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Scottish is notably overrepresented at 9.5% of St Arnaud (vs 8.8% regionally), Maltese at 0.4% (vs 0.5%) and German at 3.0% (vs 3.5%).

St Arnaud ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

At 51 years, St Arnaud's median age is significantly above the Regional Vic. average of 43 as well as considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Regional Vic. average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented (15.6% locally), while 5 - 14 year-olds are under-represented (10.0%). This 65 - 74 concentration is well above the national 9.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows a rejuvenation is evident as the median age fell from 52 to 51 years. Notable shifts include the 35 to 44 age group, which has grown from 8.4% to 10.5% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 8.7% to 10.1%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.8% to 10.8% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 16.6% to 14.9%. Demographic modeling suggests St Arnaud's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 45 to 54 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 43%, adding 156 residents to reach 526. Conversely, both 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 age groups will see reduced numbers.