St Arnaud

An assessment of population growth drivers in St Arnaud reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

St Arnaud's population was around 3,394 as of May 2026, reflecting a decrease of 59 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3,453. This change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 3,394 in June 2025 and an additional 17 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was 1.1 persons per square kilometer. St Arnaud's population decline of -1.7% since census was similar to the SA3 area's decline of -1.6%. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth in recent periods. AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch used VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation method to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicated a median increase just below Australia's regional areas, expecting an expansion of 409 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 12.1% over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in St Arnaud is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

St Arnaud has recorded approximately five residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling 27 homes. In the current financial year FY-26, 16 approvals have been recorded to date. On average, about 0.4 new residents arrive per new home constructed in St Arnaud annually between FY-21 and FY-25. This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of new properties is $223,000, which is below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. A total of $7.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, reflecting St Arnaud's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, St Arnaud has significantly less development activity, with 55.0% fewer approvals per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. The area's development activity is also below average nationally, suggesting possible planning constraints or maturity of the area.

Recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, maintaining St Arnaud's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval in St Arnaud is 1140 people, reflecting its quiet and low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, St Arnaud is forecasted to gain 409 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the area.

St Arnaud has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified one major project expected to influence the region: Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements. Other notable projects include Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), Central Goldfields Land Use Planning Framework, and Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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St Arnaud ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

St Arnaud's workforce comprises an equal balance of white and blue collar jobs across various sectors. The unemployment rate in the town was 1.8% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.1% over the past year. In December 2025, 1,603 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate stood at 1.9%, lower than Regional Vic.'s 3.7%.

Workforce participation was slightly below average at 57.4%. Census data from 2021 showed that only 13.1% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment in St Arnaud are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The town has a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 3.7 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction employs only 4.7% of local workers, lower than Regional Vic.'s 10.4%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. In the year to June 2025, employment increased by 1.1%, while the labour force decreased by 2.2%, leading to a 3.3 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. This contrasts with Regional Vic., where employment contracted slightly, and unemployment fell marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to St Arnaud's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.3% over five years and 12.0% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not consider localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that St Arnaud SA2 has lower than average income on a national basis. The median income is $45,536 and the average income stands at $57,323. In comparison, Regional Vic.'s figures show a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $49,917 (median) and $62,837 (average) as of March 2026. The 2021 Census reveals that household, family and personal incomes in St Arnaud fall between the 3rd and 11th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that the $400 - 799 earnings band captures 31.7% of the community (1,075 individuals), contrasting with Regional Vic.'s leading bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 at 30.3%. Lower income households are prevalent, with 40.6% earning below $800 weekly, indicating affordability pressures for many residents. While housing costs are modest with 91.6% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 8th percentile nationally.

St Arnaud is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

St Arnaud's housing stock, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.7% houses and 4.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in St Arnaud stood at 57.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.7% and rented ones at 16.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $867, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in St Arnaud was $182, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, St Arnaud's mortgage repayments were lower at $867 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

St Arnaud features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.8% of all households, including 20.7% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.2%, with lone person households at 38.0% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in St Arnaud fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (30.0%). A total of 24.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, with 9.7% in primary, 7.2% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

St Arnaud has 12 active public transport stops. These are served by 5 different routes offering a total of 25 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is limited with residents living an average of 682 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards using cars (86%), while 10% walk. There's an average of 1.6 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, only 13.1% work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

On average, there are 3 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 2 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in St Arnaud is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

St Arnaud faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Only approximately 48% of the total population (~1,615 people) has private health cover, compared to 50.5% in Regional Vic.

and a national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (impacting 11.9%) and mental health issues (9.4%), while 58.9% claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic.. Working-age residents face notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 29.4% of residents aged 65 and over (997 people), higher than the 23.9% in Regional Vic., with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The latest Census data sees St Arnaud placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Arnaud, surveyed in June 2016, had a population with 90.7% being citizens, 93.4% born in Australia, and 97.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 57.4% of St Arnaud's population, compared to 47.3% across Regional Vic., surveyed in June 2016. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (35.2%), Australian (33.0%), and Irish (9.8%).

Notably, Scottish ancestry was overrepresented at 9.5%, compared to 8.8% regionally, while Maltese was underrepresented at 0.4% versus 0.5%. German ancestry was also slightly underrepresented at 3.0% versus 3.5%.

St Arnaud ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

St Arnaud's median age is 51 years, which is significantly higher than Regional Victoria's average of 43 and considerably older than Australia's median age of 38. The 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in St Arnaud at 15.8%, compared to the Regional Victorian average of 10.9% and the national average of 9.4%. Conversely, the 15-24 year-olds are under-represented at 9.3%, compared to the Regional Victorian average of 14.7%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 8.4% to 10.1% of St Arnaud's population, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.8% to 10.7%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 16.6% to 15.1%. By 2041, St Arnaud is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition, with the 45 to 54 group projected to grow by 41% (149 people), reaching 511 from 361. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 cohorts.