St Arnaud
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in St Arnaud reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

St Arnaud's population is 3,409 as of Aug 2025. This shows a decrease of 44 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 3,453. The decline is inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 3,407 in June 2024 and 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1.1 persons per square kilometer. St Arnaud's -1.3% decline since census is similar to the SA3 area's -0.6%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 89.5% of gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, they use VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate an above median growth in Australia's regional areas, with the area expected to expand by 446 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 13.0% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in St Arnaud is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

St Arnaud recorded approximately five residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is provided by the ABS on a financial year basis, totalling 29 approvals from FY-20 to FY-25, with three approvals so far in FY-26. Over these years, an average of 0.4 people moved to the area per dwelling built. This suggests supply meets or exceeds demand, offering greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth above projections.

New homes are being constructed at an average cost of $302,000, below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options. In FY-26, $7.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting St Arnaud's primarily residential nature. Compared to Rest of Vic., St Arnaud has significantly less development activity, 54.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, which is also below national averages, suggesting possible planning constraints. Recent building activity consists solely of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes.

The estimated population count of 1140 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet development environment. Population forecasts indicate St Arnaud will gain 443 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

St Arnaud has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project that may affect this region: Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements. Other notable projects include Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), Central Goldfields Land Use Planning Framework, and Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.3%, St Arnaud has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

St Arnaud's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs with diverse sectors represented. The unemployment rate was 3.3% as of June 2025.

There were 1,592 residents employed, with an unemployment rate 0.5% lower than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lagged at 51.6%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key employment sectors included agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area had a significant specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 3.7 times the regional level.

Construction employed only 4.7% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 10.4%. Analysis showed a decrease in labour force by 4.2% and employment by 3.3% over one year, leading to a fall in unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. had an employment decline of 0.9%, labour force decline of 0.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National forecasts from May 2025 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to St Arnaud's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 5.3% over five years and 12.0% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended June 2022 shows median income in St Arnaud was $43,101 and average income was $51,473. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where median income was $48,741 and average income was $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% from financial year ended June 2022 to March 2025, estimated current incomes would be approximately $47,459 (median) and $56,677 (average). Census 2021 data shows household, family, and personal incomes in St Arnaud fall between the 3rd and 11th percentiles nationally. Income distribution reveals that 31.7% of locals (1,080 people) earn between $400 and $799 per week, contrasting with the region where 30.3% earn between $1,500 and $2,999. The prevalence of lower-income residents indicates constrained household budgets across much of this suburb. Housing costs are modest with 91.6% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 8th percentile nationally.

St Arnaud is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census showed that in St Arnaud, 95.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 4.3% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in St Arnaud stood at 57.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.7% and rented ones at 16.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $867, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,043. The median weekly rent in St Arnaud was $182, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $215. Nationally, St Arnaud's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $867 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

St Arnaud features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.8% of all households, including 20.7% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 40.2%, with lone person households at 38.0% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic average of 2.2.

Educational outcomes in St Arnaud fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (30.0%). A total of 24.5% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, comprising 9.7% in primary, 7.2% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education.

The five schools in St Arnaud have a combined enrollment of 385 students. St Arnaud's ICSEA score is 980, indicating typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with four primary schools and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The public transport analysis indicates that St Arnaud has 12 active transport stops, all of which are bus routes. These stops are serviced by a total of 10 individual routes, providing 40 weekly passenger trips collectively. The accessibility of these services is limited, with residents typically located 682 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 5 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 3 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in St Arnaud is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

St Arnaud faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Only approximately 46% (~1,581 people) have private health cover, compared to 48.8% in the rest of Victoria and a national average of 55.3%. The most common conditions are arthritis (affecting 11.9%) and mental health issues (9.4%), while 58.9% report no medical ailments, compared to 61.2% in the rest of Victoria.

St Arnaud has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over, at 28.7% (977 people), than the rest of Victoria's 25.2%.

The latest Census data sees St Arnaud placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Arnaud was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 90.7% of its population being citizens, 93.4% born in Australia, and 97.4% speaking English only at home. The primary religion in St Arnaud is Christianity, accounting for 57.4% of the population, compared to 51.6% across Rest of Vic. The top three ancestry groups are English (35.2%), Australian (33.0%), and Irish (9.8%).

Notably, Scottish representation is higher at 9.5% in St Arnaud than regionally at 9.0%, Maltese at 0.4% compared to 0.2%, and German at 3.0% versus the regional 6.6%.

St Arnaud ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

St Arnaud's median age is 51 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of Vic. average of 43 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. The 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented in St Arnaud at 15.8%, compared to the Rest of Vic. average, while the 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented at 8.8%. This 65 - 74 concentration is well above the national average of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35 to 44 age group grew from 8.4% to 10.3%, and the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 8.7% to 10.0%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 12.8% to 11.2%, and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 16.6% to 15.5%. By 2041, St Arnaud is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition, with the 45 to 54 group projected to grow by 38% (145 people), reaching 526 from 380. Population declines are projected for the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 cohorts.