St Arnaud

An assessment of population growth drivers in St Arnaud reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

St Arnaud's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 3,414 people. This figure represents a decrease of 39 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 3,453 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,406 in June 2024 and an additional 17 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1.1 persons per square kilometer. While St Arnaud experienced a 1.1% decline since the census, the SA3 area achieved 1.0% growth, indicating divergent population trends. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is expected to increase by approximately 446 persons by 2041, reflecting a gain of 12.8% in total over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in St Arnaud is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

St Arnaud has recorded approximately five residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling 27 homes. As of FY-26, 15 approvals have been recorded. On average, about 0.4 new residents arrive per new home constructed annually between FY-21 and FY-25. This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction cost of new properties is $223,000, which is below the regional average. In this financial year, $7.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating St Arnaud's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, St Arnaud has significantly less development activity, at 54.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Nationally, this figure is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and potential planning constraints.

Recent building activity consists solely of standalone homes, maintaining St Arnaud's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1140 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, St Arnaud's population is forecasted to grow by 438 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

St Arnaud has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region: Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements, Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), Central Goldfields Land Use Planning Framework, and Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade are key projects. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in St Arnaud exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

St Arnaud has a balanced workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 2.3% as of September 2025. It has 1,589 residents in work, which is 1.5% below the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is lower at 56.9%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%.

A low 13.1% of residents work from home. The dominant employment sectors are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs 3.7 times the regional level, while construction employs only 4.7%, below Rest of Vic.'s 10.4%. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force decreased by 4.5% and employment decreased by 2.0%, causing unemployment to fall by 2.5 percentage points.

National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest St Arnaud's employment should increase by 5.3% over five years and 12.0% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to its current employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 indicates that income in St Arnaud SA2 is below the national average. The median assessed income is $45,536 while the average income stands at $57,323. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s figures where the median income is $50,954 and the average income is $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ending June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $49,293 (median) and $62,052 (average) as of September 2025. Census data from 2021 shows that household, family, and personal incomes in St Arnaud all fall between the 3rd and 11th percentiles nationally. Income distribution reveals that the predominant cohort spans 31.7% of locals (1,082 people) with incomes ranging from $400 to $799 per week, contrasting with the region where the $1,500 to $2,999 bracket leads at 30.3%. The prevalence of lower-income residents indicates constrained household budgets across much of this suburb. While housing costs are modest with 91.6% of income retained, total disposable income ranks at just the 8th percentile nationally.

St Arnaud is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In St Arnaud, as per the latest Census evaluation, 95.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 4.3% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s figures of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. St Arnaud's home ownership rate stood at 57.0%, with mortgaged properties making up 26.7% and rented ones accounting for 16.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $867, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Weekly rent figures were recorded at $182 compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285 and Australia's national figure of $375. Nationally, St Arnaud's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863.

St Arnaud features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.8% of all households, including 20.7% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 40.2%, with lone person households at 38.0% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in St Arnaud fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (30.0%). A total of 24.5% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, comprising 9.7% in primary, 7.2% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

St Arnaud has 12 active public transport stops. Five individual routes service these stops, offering a total of 25 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically located 682 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars are the dominant mode of transport at 86%, while 10% walk. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, only 13.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages three trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately two weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in St Arnaud is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

St Arnaud faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial among both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is low, at approximately 48% of the total population (around 1,625 people), compared to 50.5% in the rest of Victoria and 55.7% nationally.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.9% and 9.4% of residents respectively. However, 58.9% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in the rest of Victoria. The working-age population also faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. St Arnaud has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over, at 28.3% (around 966 people), than the rest of Victoria at 23.9%, and national rankings are even higher than the general population.

The latest Census data sees St Arnaud placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Arnaud was found to have low cultural diversity, with 90.7% citizens, 93.4% born in Australia, and 97.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 57.4%, compared to 47.3% across Rest of Vic.. The top three ancestry groups are English (35.2%), Australian (33.0%), and Irish (9.8%).

Notably, Scottish representation is higher at 9.5% than the regional average of 8.8%. Maltese and German representations are lower at 0.4% and 3.0%, respectively, compared to regional averages of 0.5% and 3.5%.

St Arnaud ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

St Arnaud's median age is 51 years, significantly higher than the Rest of Vic average of 43 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. The 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented at 15.6% locally compared to the Rest of Vic average, while the 5-14 year-olds are under-represented at 10.0%. This concentration in the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows a rejuvenation trend with the median age falling from 52 to 51 years. Notable shifts include the 35-44 age group growing from 8.4% to 10.5%, and the 15-24 cohort increasing from 8.7% to 10.1%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 12.8% to 10.8%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 16.6% to 14.9%. Demographic modeling suggests St Arnaud's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the 45-54 cohort projected to grow by 43%, adding 156 residents to reach 526. Conversely, both the 55-64 and 65-74 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.