Ararat

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Ararat's population is estimated at around 8,569 people, reflecting an increase of 69 individuals since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 0.8% rise from the previously reported figure of 8,500 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 8,332 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, combined with an additional 142 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 53 persons per square kilometer. Ararat's growth rate of 0.8% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area (-0.2%), though overall growth remains modest. The primary driver for this growth was overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate a median increase just below Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with the suburb expected to expand by 720 persons to reach 9,289 people by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 5.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ararat recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Ararat shows around 43 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 219 homes were approved, with a further 12 approved so far in FY-26. This has resulted in an adequate housing supply relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average value of new homes being built is $479,000. In terms of commercial approvals, Ararat has seen $10.1 million this financial year, indicating steady investment activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Ararat has slightly more development, measuring 50.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period.

This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. Recent construction comprises 84.0% standalone homes and 16.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. Ararat reflects a low density area with around 156 people per approval. Future projections estimate Ararat adding 479 residents by 2041 based on current development patterns and AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. Current development patterns suggest new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ararat has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No factor impacts an area's performance more than local infrastructure changes. AreaSearch identified zero projects expected to affect the area. Key initiatives are Western Highway Ararat to Stawell Upgrade, Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade, Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), and Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements. Relevant projects are detailed below.

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Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.8%, Ararat has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Ararat's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs with significant representation in essential services sectors. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate stands at 3.8%, mirroring Rest of Vic.'s rate, but with a lower workforce participation rate of 48.4%.

Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and public administration & safety. Manufacturing is particularly prominent, with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level. Conversely, construction has limited presence at 6.2% compared to the regional average of 10.4%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data comparisons.

Between June 2024 and June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 4.1%, with employment down 2.7%, resulting in a 1.3 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. Nationally, employment is forecast to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though growth patterns vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Ararat's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolations.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Ararat's median income among taxpayers was $46,346 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $54,693 during the same period. These figures compare to those of Rest of Vic., which were $48,741 and $60,693 respectively. According to Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated median income would be approximately $51,982 as of September 2025, with average income estimated at $61,344 during the same period. The 2021 Census figures indicate that household, family and personal incomes in Ararat fall between the 14th and 25th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 29.6% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999, mirroring regional levels where 30.3% occupy this bracket. Housing costs are modest with 88.2% of income retained, however the total disposable income ranks at just the 19th percentile nationally.

Ararat is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The latest Census in Ararat showed that 89.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 10.2% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ararat was at 42.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.6% and rented ones at 27.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ararat was $1,083, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,043. The median weekly rent figure for Ararat was $250, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $215. Nationally, Ararat's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ararat features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 62.7% of all households, including 20.2% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 37.3%, with lone person households at 34.1% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Ararat fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

Ararat has lower university qualification rates at 14.3%, significantly below Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.5% and graduate diplomas at 2.2%. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (25.3%). Educational participation is high at 30.5%, comprising 11.3% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Ararat operates a network of seven schools educating approximately 1,393 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 974) and balanced educational opportunities. The area has four primary and three secondary schools serving distinct age groups. Note: for schools marked 'n/a' in enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ararat has 64 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 21 routes, collectively providing 384 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 205 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 54 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ararat is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Ararat faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 49% (~4,158 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.1%) and mental health issues (10.9%). About 58.6% report having no medical ailments, compared to 61.2% in the rest of Victoria. Ararat has 24.1% residents aged 65 and over (2,065 people), slightly lower than the 25.2% in the rest of Victoria. Health outcomes among seniors are challenging but better than those of the general population.

Ararat ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat has a below average cultural diversity level, with 81.1% citizens, 87.1% born in Australia, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 44.3%. Judaism, however, is overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to 0.0% regionally.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (32.1%), English (31.5%), and Scottish (9.6%). Notably, German (4.6%) and Samoan (0.4%) are overrepresented, while Maori is slightly overrepresented at 0.6%.

Ararat hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Ararat's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Ararat has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (15.2%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.7%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the 35-44 age group increased from 11.1% to 12.7%, while the 25-34 cohort rose from 13.8% to 15.2%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.4% to 10.4%. By 2041, Ararat's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 30%, reaching 1,687 people from 1,302. Meanwhile, the 45-54 and 65-74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.