Ararat

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ararat's population is estimated at around 8,631 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 131 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,500. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 8,328 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 53 persons per square kilometer. Ararat's 1.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's 1.0%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was primarily responsible for this growth.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 for areas not covered by ABS data. Future population trends suggest a median increase just below national regional areas, with Ararat expected to expand by 720 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 4.8% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ararat recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Ararat has experienced around 43 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years up to FY26. This totals an estimated 219 homes. So far in FY26, 17 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $479,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Additionally, $10.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, showing steady commercial investment activity. When compared to Rest of Vic., Ararat records somewhat elevated construction activity, measuring at 50.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period.

This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. New development consists of 84.0% standalone homes and 16.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 156 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections show Ararat adding 417 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ararat has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could impact the area. Key projects include Western Highway Upgrade from Ararat to Stawell, Western Highway upgrade between Ballarat and Stawell, Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades as part of the Murray Basin Rail Project, and Melbourne to Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Ararat has been broadly consistent with national averages

Ararat has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, notably in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.7% as of September 2025, lower than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. However, workforce participation is lower at 51.5%, compared to the regional average of 61.4%.

According to Census data, only 7.3% of residents work from home. Key industries include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and public administration & safety. Manufacturing is particularly prominent with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level, while construction has lower representation at 6.2%, compared to the regional average of 10.4%. Many Ararat residents commute elsewhere for work.

Between September 2024 and 2025, the labour force decreased by 4.0% and employment fell by 1.1%, leading to a significant drop in unemployment rate by 2.9 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s employment contracted by 0.7%, with a marginal rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ararat's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 reports Ararat's median income among taxpayers is $46,346 and the average is $54,693. This is lower than the national average. Rest of Vic.'s median income is $50,954 with an average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $50,170 (median) and $59,205 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, Ararat's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 14th and 25th percentiles nationally. The dominant income bracket in Ararat is $1,500 - 2,999 with 29.6% of residents (2,554 people), similar to surrounding regions at 30.3%. Housing costs are modest, retaining 88.2% of income, but total disposable income ranks at the 19th percentile nationally.

Ararat is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Ararat's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.8% houses and 10.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ararat was 42.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.6% and rented ones at 27.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ararat was $1,083, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure in Ararat was $250, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Ararat's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,083 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ararat features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.7 percent of all households, including 20.2 percent couples with children, 29.1 percent couples without children, and 12.2 percent single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.3 percent, with lone person households at 34.1 percent and group households comprising 3.1 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Ararat fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (25.3%). Educational participation is high, with 30.5% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.3% in primary, 9.3% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ararat has 64 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train services. These are covered by 12 different routes, providing a total of 275 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located 205 meters from the nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward, predominantly by car (90%), with 7% walking. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, only 7.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 39 trips per day, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ararat is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Ararat faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial, affecting both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is low at approximately 49% of the total population (around 4,188 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis (11.1%) and mental health issues (10.9%). However, 58.6% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across the rest of Victoria. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 24.0% of residents aged 65 and over (2,071 people), with health outcomes among seniors presenting some challenges, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

Ararat ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 81.1% of its population being citizens born in Australia speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Ararat, comprising 44.3% of people. While Judaism comprises 0.1%, this is not significantly different from the regional figure of 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (32.1%), English (31.5%), and Scottish (9.6%). Notably, German ancestry is overrepresented at 4.6% compared to the regional average of 3.5%, Samoan at 0.4% versus 0.1%, and Maori at 0.6% against a regional figure of 0.2%.

Ararat hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Ararat's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Ararat has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (15.7%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.8%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 11.1% to 13.4%, while the 25 to 34 cohort has risen from 13.8% to 15.7%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 12.4% to 9.9%. By 2041, Ararat's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow by 24%, reaching 1,687 people from the current 1,355. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 and 65 to 74 age groups are expected to experience population declines.