Ararat

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Ararat is around 8,414, reflecting a decrease of 86 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,500. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 8,399 based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and an additional 215 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 52 persons per square kilometer. While Ararat experienced a 1.0% decline since the 2021 census, it performed better than the SA3 area (-1.6%). Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an increase just below the median of Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with the suburb expected to expand by 657 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 7.6% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ararat recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Ararat recorded approximately 43 residential properties approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 219 homes were approved, with another 20 approved in FY-26 so far. Despite population decline, housing supply has been adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average expected construction cost of new homes is $479,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $10.1 million, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Ararat has slightly more development per person over the past five years, preserving buyer options while sustaining property demand.

Recent construction comprises 84% standalone homes and 16% townhouses or apartments, maintaining low-density housing with an emphasis on detached properties attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 156 people per approval, Ararat reflects a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to increase by 642 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond projections.

Ararat has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No factor influences an area's performance more than changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area. Key projects include Western Highway Upgrade - Ararat to Stawell, Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade, Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), and Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Ararat demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Ararat has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs well represented. Key sectors include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and public administration & safety. The unemployment rate in Ararat was 2.2% as of December 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.7%. This is lower than Regional Vic.'s unemployment rate of 3.7%, but residents' workforce participation is also significantly lower, at 50.8% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. A low 7.3% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment in manufacturing is particularly high, with a share 1.9 times the regional level, while construction has limited presence at 6.2% compared to Regional Vic.'s 10.4%.

Many Ararat residents commute elsewhere for work. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 1.7%, labour force decreased by 2.0%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate of 3.6 percentage points. In comparison, Regional Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decrease of 0.7%, with a minimal drop in unemployment. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ararat's employment mix, local employment is expected to increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The suburb of Ararat's income level is lower than average on a national basis according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Ararat is $46,346 and the average income stands at $54,693. In comparison, Regional Vic.'s median income is $50,954 and average income is $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Ararat would be approximately $50,804 (median) and $59,954 (average) as of March 2026. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Ararat fall between the 14th and 25th percentiles nationally. The data shows that 29.6% of individuals in Ararat earn between $1,500 - 2,999 annually (2,490 individuals), consistent with regional trends where 30.3% fall into the same category. Housing costs are modest in Ararat, with 88.2% of income retained after expenses. However, total disposable income ranks at just the 19th percentile nationally.

Ararat is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Ararat, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.8% houses and 10.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ararat was at 42.2%, similar to Regional Vic., with the rest being mortgaged (30.6%) or rented (27.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ararat was $1,083, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent was $250, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Ararat's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,083 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ararat features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.7% of all households, including 20.2% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 37.3%, with lone person households at 34.1% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Ararat fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 9.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are common, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (25.3%). Educational participation is high, with 30.5% currently enrolled in formal education: 11.3% in primary, 9.3% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ararat has 64 operational public transport stops serving a mix of train services. These stops are covered by 12 distinct routes, offering a total of 275 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents' average distance to the nearest stop being 205 meters. Primarily residential, most Ararat residents commute outward. Cars remain the prevalent mode of transportation at 90%, while walking accounts for 7%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, below the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, only 7.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 39 trips per day, translating to roughly 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ararat is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Ararat faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is low at approximately 49% of the total population (around 4,083 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.1% and 10.9% of residents respectively. However, 58.6% of residents reported having no medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic. The working-age population has notable health challenges with higher chronic condition rates. The area has 24.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,061 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, largely aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Ararat ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat has a lower than average cultural diversity, with 81.1% citizens, 87.1% born in Australia, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 44.3%. Judaism, however, is overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Regional Vic's 0.1%.

Top ancestry groups are Australian (32.1%), English (31.5%), and Scottish (9.6%). Notably, German (4.6% vs regional 3.5%), Samoan (0.4% vs 0.1%), and Maori (0.6% vs 0.2%) are overrepresented in Ararat.

Ararat hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Ararat's median age is 44 years, similar to Regional Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Regional Vic., Ararat has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (14.8%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.9%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the population aged 35-44 grew from 11.1% to 13.3%, while the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.4% to 10.4%. By 2041, Ararat's age composition is expected to change notably. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 27% (341 people), reaching 1,587 from 1,245. Meanwhile, the 65-74 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to decrease in population.