Ararat

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ararat reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, Ararat's population is estimated at around 8,631, reflecting an increase of 131 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 8,500. This change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 8,328 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release (June 2024) and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 53 persons per square kilometer. Ararat's 1.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's 1.0%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was primarily driving this growth. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an increase just below the median of Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with the suburb expected to expand by 733 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 5.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ararat recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Ararat recorded around 43 residential properties approved per year. Between FY21 and FY25, approximately 219 homes were approved, with 17 more approved in FY26 so far. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $479,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. This year, $10.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Ararat has slightly more development, with 50.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years.

Recent construction comprises 84.0% standalone homes and 16.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature. With around 156 people per approval, Ararat reflects a low density area. Population forecasts indicate Ararat will gain 430 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ararat has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No changes can influence an area's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 0 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Western Highway Upgrade - Ararat to Stawell, Western Highway Ballarat to Stawell Upgrade, Ararat to Maryborough Line Upgrades (Murray Basin Rail Project), and Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Ararat demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Ararat has a balanced workforce encompassing both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented in the area. The unemployment rate was 2.2% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.7% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of that date, 3,580 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 1.5%, lower than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. However, workforce participation was significantly lower in Ararat at 51.3% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. According to Census responses, only 7.3% of residents worked from home, although Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and public administration & safety sectors.

Manufacturing has a particularly high employment share at 1.9 times the regional level, while construction has limited presence with only 6.2% of employment compared to 10.4% regionally. It appears many Ararat residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data comparing working population to local population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 1.7% while labour force decreased by 2.0%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate of 3.6 percentage points, according to AreaSearch's analysis of SALM and ABS data aggregated from broader statistical areas. By comparison, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6%, labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling by only 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Ararat. These projections suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Ararat's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, although it is important to note that this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The suburb of Ararat had a lower than average income level based on the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $46,346 and the average income stood at $54,693. These figures compared to those for Regional Vic., which were $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $50,170 (median) and $59,205 (average). According to the 2021 Census figures, incomes in Ararat fell between the 14th and 25th percentiles nationally. The data showed that 29.6% of the community earned between $1,500 - 2,999, consistent with regional trends at 30.3%. Housing costs were modest, with 88.2% of income retained, but total disposable income ranked at just the 19th percentile nationally.

Ararat is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Ararat, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 89.8% houses and 10.2% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Regional Victoria's figures of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ararat was recorded at 42.2%, similar to Regional Vic.'s figure, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (30.6%) or rented (27.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ararat was $1,083, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure for Ararat was recorded at $250, substantially lower than Regional Vic.'s $285 and the national figure of $375.

Ararat features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.7% of all households, including 20.2% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.3%, with lone person households at 34.1% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Ararat fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (25.3%). Educational participation is high, with 30.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (11.3%), secondary education (9.3%), and tertiary education (2.7%).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ararat has 64 active public transport stops offering a mix of train services. These are covered by 12 routes providing 275 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is good with residents typically located 205 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, predominantly by car (90%), while 7% walk. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.3, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 7.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 39 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ararat is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Ararat faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is low, at approximately 49% of the total population (around 4,188 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.1 and 10.9% of residents respectively. However, 58.6% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. Working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 24.0% of residents aged 65 and over (2,071 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally in line with national rankings.

Ararat ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ararat's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 81.1% of its population being citizens, 87.1% born in Australia, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Ararat, comprising 44.3% of people. Judaism, however, is overrepresented in Ararat with 0.1%, compared to 0.1% across Regional Vic.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (32.1%), English (31.5%), and Scottish (9.6%). Notably, German (4.6%) and Samoan (0.4%) are overrepresented in Ararat compared to regional averages of 3.5% and 0.1%, respectively, while Maori is also overrepresented at 0.6%.

Ararat hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Ararat's median age is 44 years, similar to Regional Victoria's 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Regional Vic., Ararat has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (15.7%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.8%). From the 2021 Census, there has been a rejuvenation with the median age falling from 45 to 44 years. The 35-44 age group grew from 11.1% to 13.5%, and the 25-34 cohort increased from 13.8% to 15.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.4% to 10.0%. By 2041, Ararat's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 25-34 age group is projected to increase by 334 people (25%), from 1,355 to 1,690. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 15-24 cohorts.