Warracknabeal

Warracknabeal has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As per ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the estimated population of Warracknabeal as of May 2026 is around 2,241. This figure represents a decrease of 118 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,359. The current resident population estimate of 2,239 by AreaSearch was derived from the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and address validation since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 7.7 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods for Warracknabeal.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the suburb's population is expected to decline by 665 persons by 2041.

The level of residential development activity in Warracknabeal is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Warracknabeal has recorded approximately six residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated thirty homes. As of FY26, zero approvals have been recorded. The average construction value for new properties is $390,000. In FY26, there have been $5.0 million in commercial approvals.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Warracknabeal shows around 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 33rd percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises 75.0% detached dwellings and 25.0% townhouses or apartments, a shift from the current housing mix of 94.0% houses. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 506 people. Population is expected to remain stable or decline in Warracknabeal.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, Warracknabeal should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Warracknabeal has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects include Warracknabeal Energy Park, Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements, Regional Housing Fund, and EnergyConnect, with the following list outlining those most likely relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Warracknabeal demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Warracknabeal has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented in the area. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.0%.

The estimated employment growth over the past year is 1.2%. This figure is based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. The unemployment rate in Warracknabeal is 1.7% lower than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. However, workforce participation is somewhat below standard at 56.4%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%.

According to Census responses, a low 7.4% of residents work from home. This figure may have been influenced by Covid-19 lockdown impacts. The key industries of employment among Warracknabeal residents are health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade. The area has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. In contrast, construction employs just 7.0% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 10.4%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.2%. However, the labour force decreased by 1.9%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 3.0 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand within Warracknabeal. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Warracknabeal's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.6% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The suburb of Warracknabeal had a median taxpayer income of $48,107 and an average income of $65,689 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was slightly below the national average for that year. In contrast, Regional Vic had a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $52,735 (median) and $72,008 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Warracknabeal fell between the 6th and 17th percentiles nationally. The predominant income bracket was $400 - 799, with 30.4% of locals earning within this range. Housing costs were modest, with 92.3% of income retained after expenses. However, total disposable income ranked at the 13th percentile nationally.

Warracknabeal is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Warracknabeal's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.2% houses and 5.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warracknabeal stood at 52.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.4% and rented ones at 21.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $737, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Warracknabeal was $180, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Warracknabeal's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warracknabeal features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 57.8% of all households, including 17.1% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 42.2%, with lone person households at 40.1% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Warracknabeal faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (30.9%). Educational participation is high, with 27.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.0% in primary, 9.0% in secondary, and 2.3% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warracknabeal has two active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by two different routes combined offering 17 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is considered limited with residents on average located 656 metres from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuting is outward-bound, with cars being the primary mode of transportation at 86%, while 11% walk. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census data (which may reflect COVID-19 conditions), only 7.4% of residents work from home.

Service frequency averages two trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately eight weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warracknabeal is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warracknabeal faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Notably, both younger and older age cohorts have high prevalence of common health conditions.

The area has approximately 53% private health cover, slightly higher than the average SA2 area (50.5%). The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (14.7%) and mental health issues (10.3%), with 53.9% reporting no medical ailments, compared to Regional Vic's 63.4%. Working-age residents face substantial health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Warracknabeal has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (32%, or 717 people) than Regional Vic (23.9%). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Warracknabeal placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Warracknabeal had a lower than average cultural diversity, with 88.5% of its population being citizens born in Australia speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, making up 56.2%, compared to 47.3% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.8%), English (32.0%), and Scottish (8.2%).

Notably, German ancestry was higher than average at 7.5%, while Maltese was slightly lower at 0.4%. Serbian ancestry remained similar to the regional average at 0.2%.

Warracknabeal ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Warracknabeal has a median age of 50, which exceeds Regional Vic.'s figure of 43 and is above the national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group comprises 17.2%, higher than Regional Vic., while the 5-14 cohort stands at 9.2%. This 65-74 concentration is notably higher than the national figure of 9.4%. Post the 2021 Census, the 65 to 74 age group grew from 15.1% to 17.2%, and the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 9.2% to 11.0%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 11.1% to 9.4%, and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 10.6% to 9.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Warracknabeal's age profile. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow by -12 people (-13%), decreasing from 98 to 86. Conversely, population declines are forecast for the 85+ and 0 to 4 cohorts.