Warracknabeal

Warracknabeal has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Warracknabeal's estimated population is around 2,327. This reflects a decrease of 32 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,359. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 2,267 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 8.0 persons per square kilometer. While Warracknabeal experienced a 1.4% decline since census, the SA3 area achieved 0.8% growth, highlighting divergent population trends. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the Warracknabeal (SA2) population is expected to decline by 673 persons by 2041.

The level of residential development activity in Warracknabeal is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Warracknabeal recorded approximately six residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated thirty homes. As of FY-26, which began July 2021, zero approvals have been recorded. The population has declined in recent years, maintaining adequate housing supply relative to demand and creating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $390,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating focus on quality developments. This financial year, there have been $5.0 million in commercial approvals, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Warracknabeal shows approximately 75% of construction activity per person and ranks among the 33rd percentile nationally, implying limited buyer choices and supporting demand for existing homes. This level is below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 75.0% detached dwellings and 25.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

This shows a change from the current housing mix of 94.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated count of 506 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Warracknabeal should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Warracknabeal has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

"Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 0 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Warracknabeal Energy Park, Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements, Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), and EnergyConnect.".

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Employment performance in Warracknabeal exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Warracknabeal has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 2.1%, lower than the Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%.

As of September 2025, there are 1,066 residents employed, but workforce participation lags at 49.4% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade. The area specialises in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. However, construction employs only 7.0% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 10.4%.

Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force decreased by 4.0%, employment declined by 1.3%, causing unemployment to fall by 2.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%. State-level data shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year to 25-Nov-25, adding 41,950 jobs, with unemployment at 4.7%, compared to national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warracknabeal's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The median taxpayer income in Warracknabeal is $48,107 and the average is $65,689 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is below the national average of $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average) in Victoria excluding Melbourne ('Rest of Vic'). By September 2025, with an estimated 8.25% increase based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, the median income is projected to be approximately $52,076 and the average $71,108 in Warracknabeal. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Warracknabeal fall between the 6th and 17th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The predominant income bracket is $400 - $799, with 30.4% of locals (707 people) earning within this range, contrasting with metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates at 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 92.3% income retention, total disposable income ranks at only the 13th percentile nationally.

Warracknabeal is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Warracknabeal's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 94.2% houses and 5.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warracknabeal stood at 52.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.4% and rented ones at 21.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $737, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,043. The median weekly rent figure in Warracknabeal was $180, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $215. Nationally, Warracknabeal's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warracknabeal features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 57.8% of all households, including 17.1% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 42.2%, with lone person households at 40.1% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

Warracknabeal faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (30.9%). Educational participation is high, with 27.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.0% in primary, 9.0% in secondary, and 2.3% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warracknabeal has two active public transport stops operating, both of which offer bus services. These stops are served by two distinct routes that combined provide 17 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transports is rated as limited, with residents typically residing 656 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes is 2 trips per day, resulting in approximately 8 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warracknabeal is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Warracknabeal faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. The private health cover rate stands at approximately 53%, or around 1,228 people, which is higher than the average SA2 area's 49.1%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 14.7% of residents) and mental health issues (10.3%). Conversely, 53.9% report having no medical ailments compared to 61.2% in Rest of Vic.. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 30.8%, or 716 people, compared to the state average of 25.2%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are generally better than those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Warracknabeal placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Warracknabeal, as per the census conducted on 30 June 2016, had a cultural diversity index of below average. The population was predominantly Australian-born citizens with 88.5% being citizens, 92.8% born in Australia, and 97.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the major religion, comprising 56.2% of the population, compared to 51.6% across Rest of Vic..

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.8%), English (32.0%), and Scottish (8.2%). Notable differences included German ancestry at 7.5%, Maltese at 0.4%, and Serbian at 0.2%.

Warracknabeal ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Warracknabeal has a median age of 50, which exceeds the Rest of Vic figure of 43 and is well above the national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group makes up 16.6% of Warracknabeal's population, compared to Rest of Vic's percentage, while the 5-14 cohort constitutes 9.3%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is notably higher than the national average of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, Warracknabeal's 65 to 74 age group has grown from 15.1% to 16.6%, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 8.5% to 9.7%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 11.1% to 9.3%, and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 10.6% to 9.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Warracknabeal's age profile. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow strongly, expanding by -21 people (-21%) from 100 to 79. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 85+ and 0 to 4 cohorts.