Warracknabeal

Warracknabeal has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

The population of Warracknabeal is estimated at around 2,327 as of February 2026. This reflects a decrease of 32 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,359 people. The current resident population estimate of 2,267 was derived from AreaSearch's analysis of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 8.0 persons per square kilometer. While Warracknabeal experienced a 1.4% decline since the census, the SA3 area achieved 1.0% growth, indicating divergent trends. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the suburb's population is expected to decline by 685 persons by 2041.

The level of residential development activity in Warracknabeal is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Warracknabeal has seen approximately 6 residential properties granted approval per year over the past 5 financial years ending FY26. This totals an estimated 30 homes. In FY26, 0 approvals have been recorded so far. The average construction value of new properties is $390,000, slightly above the regional average.

There were $5.0 million in commercial approvals this financial year. Relative to Rest of Vic., Warracknabeal shows around 75% of the construction activity per person and places among the 33rd percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises 75.0% detached dwellings and 25.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining its traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. This is a change from the current housing mix of 94.0% houses. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 506 people.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, Warracknabeal should see reduced pressure on housing in the future.

Warracknabeal has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No changes can significantly impact a region's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could potentially affect this area. Notable projects include Warracknabeal Energy Park, Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements, Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), and EnergyConnect, with the following list outlining those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Warracknabeal exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Warracknabeal has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented in the area. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.2%.

This rate is 1.6% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation stands at 56.5%, below Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. According to Census responses, only 7.4% of residents work from home. Key industries include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade.

The area has a significant specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, construction employs just 7.0% of local workers, lower than Rest of Vic.'s 10.4%. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force decreased by 3.7%, while employment declined by 1.1%, leading to a fall in unemployment of 2.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.7% and a labour force decline of 0.6%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warracknabeal's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The suburb of Warracknabeal had a median taxpayer income of $48,107 and an average of $65,689 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is just below the national average, with Rest of Vic.'s median income being $50,954 and average income being $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $52,076 (median) and $71,108 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Warracknabeal all fell between the 6th and 17th percentiles nationally. Income brackets showed that the predominant cohort spanned 30.4% of locals (707 people) in the $400 - 799 category, differing from patterns across the metropolitan region where $1,500 - 2,999 dominated with 30.3%. Housing costs were modest, with 92.3% of income retained, but the total disposable income ranked at just the 13th percentile nationally.

Warracknabeal is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Warracknabeal's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.2% houses and 5.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warracknabeal was at 52.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.4% and rented ones at 21.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $737, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure was $180, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Warracknabeal's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warracknabeal features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 57.8% of all households, including 17.1% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 42.2%, with lone person households at 40.1% and group households making up 2.2%. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Warracknabeal faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them. Advanced diplomas account for 9.6% and certificates for 30.9%.

Educational participation is high at 27.0%, including 10.0% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warracknabeal has two active public transport stops. These are served by two routes combined offering 17 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited with residents typically 656 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward. Cars dominate at 86%, with 11% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling.

Only 7.4% work from home (2021 Census). Service frequency averages two trips daily, equating to about eight weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Warracknabeal is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warracknabeal faces substantial health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Notably, common health conditions are prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 53% of the total population (~1,228 people), slightly higher than the Rest of Vic.'s average of 50.5%. The most common medical conditions in Warracknabeal are arthritis (affecting 14.7% of residents) and mental health issues (10.3%). In contrast, 53.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 63.4%. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. Warracknabeal has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (30.9%, or 719 people), compared to the Rest of Vic.'s 23.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Warracknabeal placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Warracknabeal had a lower cultural diversity, with 88.5% of its population being citizens born in Australia speaking English only at home, compared to 92.8%, 97.4%, and 61.4% respectively across Victoria as of 2016 Census data. Christianity was the predominant religion in Warracknabeal, with 56.2% adherents, higher than the regional average of 47.3%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.8%), English (32.0%), and Scottish (8.2%).

Notably, German ancestry was overrepresented at 7.5%, compared to 3.5% regionally, while Maltese and Serbian ancestries showed minimal divergence from regional averages at 0.4% vs 0.5% and 0.2% respectively.

Warracknabeal ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Warracknabeal's median age is 50, surpassing Rest of Vic.'s figure of 43 and the national average of 38. The 65-74 age group comprises 17.0%, higher than Rest of Vic., while the 5-14 cohort stands at 8.9%. This 65-74 concentration is notably above the national average of 9.5%. Post-2021 Census, the 65 to 74 age group grew from 15.1% to 17.0%, and the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 8.5% to 10.1%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 11.1% to 8.9%, and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 10.6% to 8.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates significant shifts in Warracknabeal's age profile. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by -17 people (-18%), decreasing from 93 to 76. Conversely, population declines are forecast for the 85+ and 0 to 4 cohorts.