Warracknabeal

Warracknabeal has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Warracknabeal is around 2,253, a decrease of 106 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 2,359. This decrease reflects a resident population estimate of 2,250 by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. The population density ratio is approximately 7.8 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during recent periods for Warracknabeal. According to projections adopted by AreaSearch, ABS/Geoscience Australia projections are used for each SA2 area as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 are utilized with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, Warracknabeal's population is expected to reduce by 668 persons by 2041 according to this methodology.

The level of residential development activity in Warracknabeal is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Warracknabeal has recorded approximately seven residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 36 homes. In FY-26 so far, one approval has been recorded. The population decline in recent years has resulted in adequate housing supply relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average value of $390,000, aligning with regional trends.

This year, there have been $19.5 million in commercial approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Warracknabeal shows 12.0% lower construction activity per person and ranks among the 40th percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer choices and supporting demand for existing homes. This level is below the national average, implying the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Warracknabeal's traditional low density character focused on family homes.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 414 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. With a stable or declining population expected, reduced pressure on housing is anticipated, potentially creating buying opportunities.

Warracknabeal has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 33rdth percentile nationally

No significant infrastructure changes are expected in this area at present. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially impact this region. Notable initiatives include Warracknabeal Energy Park, Melbourne-Adelaide freight rail enhancements, Victoria's Regional Housing Fund, and EnergyConnect project.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.1%, Warracknabeal has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Warracknabeal has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. Key industries include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade.

As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 3.1%. This is 0.7% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, but workforce participation lags at 49.4% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. The area specializes in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. However, construction employs only 7.0% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 10.4%.

Between June 2024 and June 2025, Warracknabeal's labour force decreased by 3.8%, while employment declined by 2.8%, reducing unemployment by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw a 0.9% employment decline and 0.4% labour force decline, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (Sep-22) project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warracknabeal's industry mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Warracknabeal's median taxpayer income was $48,107 and average income was $65,689 in the financial year 2022. This is comparable to national averages, whereas Rest of Vic had a median income of $48,741 and an average income of $60,693. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $53,957 (median) and $73,677 (average), based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Warracknabeal fall between the 6th and 17th percentiles nationally. The predominant income bracket spans 30.4% of locals (684 people) earning $400 - $799 annually, differing from metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 92.3% income retention, total disposable income ranks at just the 13th percentile nationally.

Warracknabeal is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Warracknabeal's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.2% houses and 5.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warracknabeal was at 52.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.4% and rented ones at 21.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $737, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,043. The median weekly rent figure for Warracknabeal was recorded at $180, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $215. Nationally, Warracknabeal's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warracknabeal features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 57.8% of all households, including 17.1% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 42.2%, with lone person households at 40.1% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

Warracknabeal faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 9.6% and certificates at 30.9%. Educational participation is high, with 27.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: primary (10.0%), secondary (9.0%), and tertiary (2.3%).

Warracknabeal's five schools have a combined enrollment of 403 students, serving typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 961) with balanced educational opportunities. The schools include two primary, two secondary, and one K-12 school. School capacity exceeds residential needs at 17.9 places per 100 residents versus the regional average of 13.8, indicating the area serves as an educational hub for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Warracknabeal shows two active public transport stops operating, both offering bus services. Four different routes serve these stops, collectively providing 25 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 656 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages three trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately twelve weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warracknabeal is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Warracknabeal faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. The area has a private health cover rate of approximately 53%, covering around 1,189 people, which is higher than the average SA2 area's 48.8%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 14.7% of residents) and mental health issues (impacting 10.3%). However, 53.9% of residents reported having no medical ailments, compared to 61.2% in the rest of Victoria. As of 2016, 30.9% of Warracknabeal's population is aged 65 and over (696 people), higher than the 25.2% recorded in the rest of Victoria. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Warracknabeal placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Warracknabeal had a cultural diversity below average, with 88.5% of its population being citizens born in Australia speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 56.2% of Warracknabeal's population compared to 51.6% across Rest of Vic.. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.8%), English (32.0%), and Scottish (8.2%).

Notably, German (7.5%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 6.6%, Maltese at 0.4% (vs 0.2%), and Serbian at 0.2% (vs 0.1%).

Warracknabeal ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Warracknabeal has a median age of 50, which exceeds the Rest of Vic. figure of 43 and is also above the national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group makes up 16.6% of Warracknabeal's population, compared to Rest of Vic., while the 5-14 cohort represents 9.2%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is higher than the national figure of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the 65 to 74 age group has grown from 15.1% to 16.6%, and the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 8.5% to 9.6%. Meanwhile, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 11.1% to 9.2%, and the 5 to 14 group decreased from 10.6% to 9.2%. Demographic modeling suggests that Warracknabeal's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 85+ age cohort projected to grow by -16 people (-17%) from 96 to 80. Conversely, population declines are expected for the 85+ and 35 to 44 cohorts.