Swan Hill Surrounds
Statistical Area - sa2

Swan Hill Surrounds has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Swan Hill Surrounds' population, as of August 2025, is approximately 6,557 people. This figure represents an increase of 80 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,477. The change is inferred from ABS estimates; the population was 6,520 in June 2024 and there were 14 additional validated addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 1.1 persons per square kilometer. Swan Hill Surrounds' growth rate of 1.2% since the 2021 Census exceeded both the SA3 area (-1.5%) and SA4 region, indicating it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.8% to overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a weighted aggregation method. For years 2032 to 2041, projections indicate an overall population decline of 540 persons. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow; notably, the 25-34 age group is projected to increase by 62 people over this period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Swan Hill Surrounds, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Swan Hill Surrounds has recorded approximately 15 residential properties granted approval per year. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, with 75 dwellings approved over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, and 2 so far in FY-26. On average, around 1 new resident has been arriving per new home over the past five financial years between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand conditions. However, this figure has decreased to -0.1 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting more balanced supply conditions recently. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $797,000, reflecting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

Additionally, $10.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Swan Hill Surrounds shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 26th percentile of areas assessed nationally, offering more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings. This lower level of construction activity compared to national averages reflects market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 90.0% standalone homes and 10.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated count of 622 people in the area per dwelling approval suggests a quiet, low activity development environment. With population projections indicating stability or decline, Swan Hill Surrounds is expected to experience reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Swan Hill Surrounds has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 21stth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 23 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Swan Hill Regional Livestock Exchange Strategic Review, Swan Hill Regional Community Sports Hub, Transforming the Heart of Swan Hill Precinct, and Swan Hill Regional Art Gallery Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Swan Hill Surrounds exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Swan Hill Surrounds has a balanced workforce with diverse sector representation. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.1%.

There are 3,480 residents in work, which is 1.6% below the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, and workforce participation is at 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and construction. The area has a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share of 4.3 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance has limited presence with 10.9% compared to the regional 16.8%.

Over the year to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 4.3%, alongside a 3.7% employment decline, causing unemployment to fall by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s employment fell by 0.9%, labour force contracted by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Swan Hill Surrounds's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.0%% over five years and 11.2% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates Swan Hill Surrounds had a median taxpayer income of $43,658 and an average income of $50,857. These figures are lower than the national averages of $48,741 (median) and $60,693 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $48,072 (median) and $55,999 (average). Census 2021 data shows Swan Hill Surrounds' household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly, between the 26th and 30th percentiles. Income distribution reveals 32.9% of individuals fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range, similar to the broader area at 30.3%. Housing costs allow for retention of 92.1%, but disposable income ranks below average at the 37th percentile.

Swan Hill Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Swan Hill Surrounds' dwelling structure in 2016 consisted of 95.5% houses and 4.6% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 90.7% houses and 9.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Swan Hill Surrounds stood at 47.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.3% and rented ones at 18.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $966, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,083. Median weekly rent in the area was $180, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $200. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $966 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Swan Hill Surrounds features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 70.6% of all households, including 28.8% couples with children, 32.9% couples without children, and 8.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 29.4%, with lone person households at 25.2% and group households comprising 4.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, higher than the Rest of Vic average of 2.3.

Swan Hill Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.7%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (31.0%). Educational participation is high at 29.5%, comprising primary education (11.9%), secondary education (9.1%), and tertiary education (1.8%).

Six schools operate within Swan Hill Surrounds, educating approximately 271 students. The school mix includes five primary schools and one K-12 school. Local school capacity is limited at 4.1 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.7, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in the Swan Hill area shows that there are currently 21 active transport stops operating within the region. These stops serve a variety of bus routes, with 13 individual routes providing a total of 117 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is considered limited, with residents typically residing approximately 855 meters away from their nearest stop.

On average, there are around 16 trips per day across all routes, which equates to roughly five weekly trips for each individual stop.

Health performance in Swan Hill Surrounds is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Swan Hill Surrounds faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions being somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~3,042 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 9.8 and 9.2% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 66.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 64.1% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 19.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,296 people), which is lower than the 24.0% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Swan Hill Surrounds ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Swan Hill Surrounds was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 83.0% of its population being Australian citizens, 88.2% born in Australia, and 90.4% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Swan Hill Surrounds is Christianity, comprising 50.1% of the population. Notably, Buddhism is overrepresented, making up 2.2% compared to the regional average of 2.4%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Australian (33.3%), English (28.8%), and Irish (8.8%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Italian is overrepresented at 5.0% (vs 4.0% regionally), Samoan at 0.3% (vs 0.1%), and German at 3.8% (vs 3.0%).

Swan Hill Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Swan Hill Surrounds has a median age of 42 years, similar to the Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 55-64 are most prominent at 15.3%, while the 75-84 group is smaller at 5.9% compared to Rest of Vic. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 11.2% to 13.0%, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 10.6% to 11.9%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.3% to 10.7%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 16.7% to 15.3%. Population forecasts for Swan Hill Surrounds in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes, with the strongest projected growth in the 25-34 cohort at 5%, adding 36 residents to reach 802. However, population declines are projected for those aged 85+ and 0-4 years.