Swan Hill Surrounds

Swan Hill Surrounds has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Swan Hill Surrounds's population is around 6,671 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 194 people (3.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,477 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,519 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 22 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1.2 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Swan Hill Surrounds's 3.0% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (0.2%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 65.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilizing the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to shrink by 540 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 25 to 34 age group, which is projected to grow by 62 people. See the age section for more details.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Swan Hill Surrounds, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Swan Hill Surrounds has averaged around 15 new dwelling approvals per year, with 75 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 4 so far in FY-26. With an average of 1 person per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, though recent data shows this has moderated to -0.1 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, suggesting an improved supply-demand balance. New homes are being built at an average construction cost of $370,000—moderately above regional levels—indicating an emphasis on quality construction. There have also been $10.8 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

When measured against the Rest of Vic., Swan Hill Surrounds shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person while it places among the 25th percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning more limited choices for buyers, supporting demand for existing properties. This level is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. New building activity consists of 90.0% detached houses and 10.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 622 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

With population projections showing stability or decline, Swan Hill Surrounds should see reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Swan Hill Surrounds has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 38thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects and planning initiatives. In total 23 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Swan Hill Regional Livestock Exchange Strategic Review, the Swan Hill Regional Community Sports Hub, Transforming the Heart of Swan Hill Precinct, and the Swan Hill Riverfront Precinct, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market strength in Swan Hill Surrounds positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Swan Hill Surrounds features a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of just 1.3%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 3,538 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.4% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (66.6% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%). Based on Census responses, a low 12.7% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and construction. The area has particular employment specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share of 4.3 times the regional level. In contrast, health care & social assistance employs just 10.9% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 16.8%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 2.2% alongside a 0.2% employment decline, resulting in the unemployment rate falling by 1.9 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Swan Hill Surrounds. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Swan Hill Surrounds's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.0% over five years and 11.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Swan Hill Surrounds SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $46,771 with the average level standing at $55,250. This is lower than average on a national basis and compares to levels of $50,954 and $62,728 across Regional Vic. respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $50,630 (median) and $59,808 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Swan Hill Surrounds, between the 25th and 29th percentiles. Income brackets indicate the largest segment comprises 32.9% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (2,194 residents), reflecting patterns seen in the broader area where 30.3% similarly occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 92.1% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 36th percentile.

Swan Hill Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Swan Hill Surrounds, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 95.5% houses and 4.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Swan Hill Surrounds was well beyond that of Regional Vic., at 47.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (34.3%) or rented (18.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional Vic. average at $966, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $180, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Swan Hill Surrounds's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Swan Hill Surrounds features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 70.6% of all households, comprising 28.8% couples with children, 32.9% couples without children, and 8.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 29.4%, with lone person households at 25.2% and group households comprising 4.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Swan Hill Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (12.7%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 9.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (31.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 21 active transport stops operating within Swan Hill Surrounds. These stops are serviced by 6 individual routes, collectively providing 83 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 855 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 90%, with 7% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 2.0 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A relatively low 12.7% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 11 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 3 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Swan Hill Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Swan Hill Surrounds, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~3,162 people). This compares to 50.5% across Regional Vic. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 9.8% and 9.2% of residents, respectively, while 66.3% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 19.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,305 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Swan Hill Surrounds ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Swan Hill Surrounds was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 83.0% of its population being citizens, 88.2% born in Australia, and 90.4% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Swan Hill Surrounds is Christianity, which makes up 50.1% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Buddhism, which comprises 2.2% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Swan Hill Surrounds are Australian, comprising 33.3% of the population, English, comprising 28.8% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.8% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Italian is notably overrepresented at 5.0% of Swan Hill Surrounds (vs 2.9% regionally), Samoan at 0.3% (vs 0.1%) and German at 3.8% (vs 3.5%).

Swan Hill Surrounds's median age exceeds the national pattern

At 42 years, Swan Hill Surrounds's median age is similar to the Regional Vic. average of 43 while considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows 55 - 64 year-olds are particularly prominent (14.9%), while the 75 - 84 group is comparatively smaller (5.9%) than in Regional Vic.. In the period since 2021, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 11.2% to 13.3% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 10.6% to 12.1%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.3% to 10.5% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 16.7% to 14.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Swan Hill Surrounds. The 45 to 54 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 6%, adding 38 residents to reach 740. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 25 to 34 and 75 to 84 cohorts.