Hay (NSW)

Hay has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, the population of Hay NSW is estimated at around 2,298 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a decrease of 2 people (0.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,300 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,276 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 22 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1.2 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the suburb's population expected to contract by 208 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to increase by 47 people.

The level of residential development activity in Hay is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Hay had minimal residential development activity with 2 dwelling approvals annually over the five-year period from January 2015 to December 2019, totalling 13 dwellings. This low level of development is typical in rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity. It should be noted that due to the small number of approvals, individual projects can significantly impact annual growth and relativity statistics.

Hay had significantly less construction activity than Rest of NSW during this period, with its development pattern well below national averages. All new constructions were detached dwellings, reflecting the area's rural character where larger properties and space are typical. The estimated population per dwelling approval was 651 people in the area, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. Population projections show stability or decline, suggesting reduced housing demand pressures in Hay, which may benefit potential buyers.

With population projections showing stability or decline, Hay should see reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Hay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include John Houston Memorial Pool Upgrade, Hay Structure Plan, Hay Health Services Redevelopment, and Bishops Lodge Affordable Housing Development. The following list details those expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Hay has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Hay has a balanced workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate is 4.6%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, there are 1,232 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.7% compared to Regional NSW's 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Hay is 67.3%, higher than Regional NSW's 61.3%. Only 8.3% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. The leading employment industries among Hay's residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, retail trade, and construction. The area has a notable specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 3.2 times the regional level.

However, health care & social assistance is under-represented, with only 8.9% of Hay's workforce compared to Regional NSW's 16.9%. Over the year ending December 2025, labour force levels in Hay decreased by 2.0%, while employment declined by 2.5%. This resulted in an unemployment rate increase of 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Regional NSW experienced a 1.2% employment decline, a 0.8% labour force contraction, and a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Hay. Over five years, national employment is projected to expand by 6.6%, with an estimated growth rate of 5.3% for Hay based on its current employment mix. Over ten years, national employment is forecast to grow by 13.7%, indicating a potential local growth rate of 11.4%. These projections are illustrative extrapolations and do not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows that Hay suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $47,060 and an average level of $52,663. These figures are lower than national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 in Regional NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated median income is approximately $51,230 and average income is $57,329 as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Hay fall between the 10th and 22nd percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 29.3% of locals (673 people) have income in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the surrounding region where 29.9% fall into this bracket. Housing costs are modest with 91.0% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 17th percentile nationally.

Hay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Hay, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 91.3% houses and 8.7% other dwellings. In comparison, Regional NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Hay was 44.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.2% and rented dwellings at 30.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $867, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Hay was $175, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Hay's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Hay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.5 percent of all households, including 21.9 percent that are couples with children, 27.9 percent that are couples without children, and 12.8 percent that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.5 percent, with lone person households at 34.8 percent and group households comprising 1.7 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Hay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 10.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 8.8% and certificates at 29.6%. Educational participation is high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.5% in primary, 9.0% in secondary, and 1.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 1.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Hay indicates five active transport stops currently operating within the area. These stops are served by a total of six different bus routes, collectively offering sixty weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as moderate, with residents generally situated 570 meters away from their nearest stop. As a predominantly residential zone, most inhabitants commute outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation for 86% of residents, while 11% walk. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census data, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions, only 8.3% of residents work from home. The service frequency averages eight trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly twelve weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Hay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Hay faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of Hay's total population (around 1,098 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 10.7 and 10.3% of residents respectively. However, 59.7% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age population health is notably challenging due to high chronic condition rates. Hay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 28.9%, or 664 people, compared to Regional NSW's 23.4%. Senior health outcomes present additional challenges, ranking even higher than the general population nationally.

Hay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Hay was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 85.0% of its population being citizens, 92.0% born in Australia, and 95.6% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Hay is Christianity, comprising 70.0% of people, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three represented ancestry groups are English (33.4%), Australian (33.2%), and Irish (7.7%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal is overrepresented at 6.6% in Hay versus 4.6% regionally, Maori at 0.7% versus 0.3%, and South Australian at 0.4% versus 0.2%.

Hay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Hay's median age stands at 47 years, significantly higher than Regional NSW's average of 43 years and notably exceeding the national average of 38 years. The age profile reveals that individuals aged 55-64 are particularly prominent, comprising 15.6% of the population, while those aged 35-44 form a comparatively smaller group at 7.6%, in contrast to Regional NSW's figures. Between 2021 and the present, the 65-74 age group has increased from 11.9% to 15.4% of the population. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 11.3% to 9.5%, and the 55-64 group has dropped from 16.8% to 15.6%. By the year 2041, Hay is projected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 23%, increasing from 202 to 248 individuals. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 90% of projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 25-34 age cohorts.