Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie
Statistical Area - sa2

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie's population was approximately 10,040 as of August 2025. This figure represents a growth of 262 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,778. The increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 9,858 in June 2024 and an additional 172 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2.0 persons per square kilometer. The area's growth rate of 2.7% since the census is within 2.1 percentage points of the non-metro average (4.8%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.3% to overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest population numbers, the area is expected to increase by approximately 702 persons by 2041, representing a total increase of 5.2% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie has seen approximately 44 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years from FY12 to FY16, totalling 223 homes. In FY17 (so far), 15 approvals have been recorded. The area's population has decreased during this period, suggesting that new supply has kept pace with demand, offering good choice for buyers. The average construction cost value of new properties is $485,000.

This financial year, $13.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of NSW, Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie has about three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 58th percentile nationally. New development consists mainly of standalone homes (94.0%) with a smaller proportion of medium and high-density housing (6.0%), preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

The location has approximately 268 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts suggest Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie will gain around 519 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 26thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 17 projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are Barooga Cobram Road Reconstruction, Thompsons Beach and Kennedy Park Precinct Plan, NCN Health Cobram Urgent Care Centre Renovation, and VICSES Cobram Unit. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie features a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. The unemployment rate was 3.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.3%.

As of June 2025, 5152 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.3% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is at 49.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area specializes in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share of 400% of the regional level.

Health care & social assistance employs 13.0%, lower than Rest of NSW's 16.9%. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 4.3% while labour force grew by 4.5%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.1 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.3% over five years and 11.8% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie had a median taxpayer income of $43,267 and an average income of $52,903 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $48,723 and the average income will be around $59,574, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census data shows that incomes in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie fall between the 10th and 16th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The most common income bracket is $400 - $799, with 28.3% of locals (2,841 people) falling into this category, unlike the regional trend where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 29.9%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 89.4% income retention, the total disposable income ranks at only the 16th percentile nationally.

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie, as per the latest Census, 91.5% of dwellings were houses while 8.6% consisted of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 89.8% houses and 10.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in the area was 50%, with mortgaged properties at 29.4% and rented ones at 20.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,177, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,285. Median weekly rent stood at $200, lower than Non-Metro NSW's $235. Nationally, Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,177 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.1% of all households, including 21.3% couples with children, 35.7% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.9%, with lone person households making up 31.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Educational outcomes in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.2%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 9.6% and certificates at 31.2%.

Educational participation is high at 27.4%, including 10.4% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 2.1% in tertiary education. There are nine schools operating within Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie, educating approximately 907 students. These schools provide balanced educational opportunities with an ICSEA score of 982, typical for Australian schools. The area has eight primary schools and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 242 active transport stops operating within Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services. There are 34 individual routes servicing these stops, collectively providing 346 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 247 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 49 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie, with various health conditions affecting both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 47% (~4688 people) have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (13.0%) and asthma (9.4%), while 58.2% report no medical ailments, slightly lower than Rest of NSW's 60.6%. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 33.6% (3375 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 30.5%.

The latest Census data sees Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie had a cultural diversity index below average, with 87.1% citizens, 91.2% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 61.3%, compared to 58.1% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were English (33.0%), Australian (31.8%), and Irish (10.9%).

Notably, Scottish representation was higher than regional averages at 9.0% versus 9.2%. Australian Aboriginal representation was slightly lower at 2.4%, compared to the region's 2.5%. Italian representation was also slightly higher at 2.5%, compared to 2.3% regionally.

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie is 52 years, significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and well above the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented at 18.4% locally compared to the Rest of NSW average, while the 35-44 year-olds are under-represented at 8.4%. This concentration of the 65-74 cohort is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 10.1% to 11.6% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age cohort has declined from 11.0% to 10.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 23%, adding 264 residents to reach 1,432. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 57% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. Both the 65-74 and 5 to 14 age groups are projected to see reduced numbers.