Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie's population is around 10,088 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 310 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,778. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,857 from the ABS in Jun 2024 and an additional 187 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2.0 persons per square kilometer. Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie's growth rate of 3.2% since census positions it within 2.7 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (5.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 68.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is expected to expand by 702 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 4.7% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie has seen approximately 44 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years from FY17 to FY21, totalling 223 homes. In FY26 up until now, 30 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, indicating that new supply may be keeping pace with demand and offering good choice for buyers. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $371,000.

This financial year has seen $13.5 million in commercial approvals registered, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of NSW, Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 58th percentile nationally. New development consists of 94% standalone homes and 6% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers with an emphasis on detached housing.

The location has approximately 268 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts indicate Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie will gain 471 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If development rates continue at current levels, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand and provide good conditions for buyers while potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 17 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Barooga Cobram Road Reconstruction, Thompsons Beach and Kennedy Park Precinct Plan, NCN Health Cobram Campus Redevelopment, and VICSES Cobram Unit. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The unemployment rate is 3.5%, with an estimated employment growth of 0.5% in the past year. As of September 2025, there are 5,050 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.3% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is similar to Rest of NSW at 61.5%. Only 13.3% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. Leading industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area has a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share four times the regional level.

However, health care & social assistance employs only 13.0% of local workers compared to Rest of NSW's 16.9%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population and resident population. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 0.5% while labour force increased by 1.1%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.5%, labour force decline by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.3% over five years and 11.8% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in the Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie SA2 region was $44,123, with an average of $52,857 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023. This is below the national averages of $52,390 median and $65,215 average income in Rest of NSW. As of September 2025, estimated incomes based on Wage Price Index growth would be approximately $48,032 median and $57,540 average. From the 2021 Census data, incomes in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie fall between the 9th and 15th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 28.3% of locals (2,854 people) with incomes between $400 and $799, differing from the region where the $1,500 to $2,999 category predominates at 29.9%. Housing costs are modest, allowing for retention of 89.4% of income, but total disposable income ranks at just the 15th percentile nationally.

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie, as per the latest Census, 91.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.6% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie stood at 50%, with mortgaged properties at 29.4% and rented ones at 20.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,177, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Weekly rent in the area averaged $200, compared to $330 in Non-Metro NSW. Nationally, Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,177 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.1% of all households, including 21.3% couples with children, 35.7% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 33.9%, with lone person households at 31.7% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.2%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (31.2%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including primary (10.4%), secondary (8.8%), and tertiary (2.1%) levels.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 264 active transport stops operating within Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie region. These include a mix of train and bus services. There are 32 individual routes collectively providing 333 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good with residents typically located 229 meters from the nearest stop. The area is primarily residential, with most commuting outward by car at 91%, while 7% walk. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 13.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 47 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant challenges for Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie, based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~4,670 people), compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (13.0%) and asthma (9.4%), while 58.2% report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age residents face notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 34.0% of residents aged 65 and over (3,431 people), higher than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW.

The latest Census data sees Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie had a cultural diversity index below average, with 87.1% of its population being citizens, 91.2% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie, accounting for 61.3%, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (33.0%), Australian (31.8%), and Irish (10.9%).

There were notable differences in the representation of Scottish (9.0% vs regional 8.0%), Australian Aboriginal (2.4% vs regional 4.6%), and Italian (2.5% vs regional 2.1%) groups.

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie is 52 years, significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and well above the national norm of 38 years. The 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented at 18.4% locally compared to the Rest of NSW average, while the 35-44 age group is under-represented at 8.7%. This concentration of the 65-74 cohort is well above the national figure of 9.5%. From 2021 to present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 10.1% to 12.0% of the population, while the 5 to 14 age group has declined from 11.0% to 9.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie, with the 75 to 84 cohort projected to grow by 18%, adding 220 residents to reach 1,432. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 54% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. Conversely, both the 5 to 14 and 65 to 74 age groups are projected to see reduced numbers.