Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie's population was 9,778 as of the 2021 Census. By Nov 2025, it is around 10,053, an increase of 275 people (2.8%). This growth is inferred from ABS' June 2024 estimate of 9,858 and 178 new addresses since the Census date. The population density is 2.0 persons per square kilometer. Since the Census, the area's 2.8% growth is within 2.3 percentage points of non-metro areas' 5.1%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.3% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for SA2 areas, released in 2024 with a 2022 base year. For uncovered areas, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a 2021 base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest ERP population numbers, the area is expected to increase by 702 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 5.0% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie has seen approximately 44 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 223 homes. In the current financial year FY-26, 26 approvals have been recorded as of this date. The area's population has fallen during this period, suggesting that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering good choice to buyers. New properties are constructed at an average value of $371,000.

Additionally, $13.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating balanced commercial development activity compared to the rest of NSW. Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 58th percentile of areas assessed nationally. New development consists predominantly of standalone homes at 94.0%, with medium and high-density housing making up the remaining 6.0%.

This preserves the area's low density nature, attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 268 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie is forecasted to gain 506 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Barooga Cobram Road Reconstruction, Thompsons Beach and Kennedy Park Precinct Plan, NCN Health Cobram Urgent Care Centre Renovation, and VICSES Cobram Unit. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The unemployment rate was 3.5% as of September 2025.

There were 5,050 residents employed, which is 0.3% lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was at 49.5%, significantly lower than the Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment sectors included agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Agriculture, forestry & fishing had an employment share 4.0 times higher than the regional average.

However, health care & social assistance employed only 13.0% of local workers, lower than Rest of NSW's 16.9%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data showing fewer working residents than expected based on population. In the past year, employment increased by 0.5%, while labour force grew by 1.1%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. Comparatively, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.5% and unemployment increase by 0.4 percentage points. Statewide in NSW as of 25-Nov, employment contracted by 0.03% with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, slightly better than the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 5.3% in five years and 11.8% in ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in the Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie SA2 region was $43,267 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. The average income was $52,903. These figures are below the national averages of $49,459 median and $62,998 average in Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% from financial year 2022 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $48,723 median and $59,574 average. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie fall between the 9th and 15th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 28.3% of locals (2,844 people) with incomes between $400 and $799, unlike the region where the $1,500 to $2,999 category predominates at 29.9%. Housing costs are modest, with 89.4% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 15th percentile nationally.

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluated dwelling structures in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie as 91.5% houses and 8.6% other dwellings. Non-Metro NSW had 89.8% houses and 10.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie was 50.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.4% and rented dwellings at 20.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,177, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,285. Median weekly rent in the area was $200, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $235. Nationally, Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,177 than Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.1% of all households, including 21.3% couples with children, 35.7% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 33.9%, with lone person households at 31.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Educational outcomes in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 11.2%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 40.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (31.2%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 242 active transport stops operating within Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie. These include a mix of train and bus services. There are 34 individual routes servicing these stops, providing a total of 346 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 247 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 49 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie as of 2018-19. The rate of private health cover was found to be low at approximately 47%, covering around 4,694 people.

Nationally, the average is 55.3%. The most common medical conditions were arthritis and asthma, affecting 13.0% and 9.4% of residents respectively. In comparison, 58.2% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, slightly lower than the 60.6% across Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over, at 33.6%, or approximately 3,379 people, compared to 30.5% in Rest of NSW.

The latest Census data sees Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie had a cultural diversity below average, with 87.1% of its population being citizens, 91.2% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 61.3%, compared to 58.1% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (33.0%), Australian (31.8%), and Irish (10.9%).

Scottish was notably overrepresented at 9.0% (vs regional 9.2%), Australian Aboriginal at 2.4% (vs 2.5%), and Italian at 2.5% (vs 2.3%).

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie is 52 years, significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and also above the national norm of 38 years. The 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented at 18.4% locally compared to the Rest of NSW average, while the 35-44 age group is under-represented at 8.4%. The concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 10.1% to 11.6% of the population, while the 5 to 14 age cohort has declined from 11.0% to 10.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Tocumwal-Finley-Jerilderie. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 22%, adding 262 residents to reach 1,432. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 57% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. Conversely, both the 65-74 and 5 to 14 age groups are projected to have reduced numbers.