Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie's population is around 10,088 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 310 people (3.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,778 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,857 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 187 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2.0 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie's 3.2% growth since the census positions it within 2.7 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (5.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 68.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of regional areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to expand by 702 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 4.7% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie has seen around 44 new homes approved annually, totalling 223 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 34 approvals have been recorded. Given population has fallen over the past period, new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $371,000. Additionally, $13.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development activity.

Compared to the Rest of NSW, Tocumwal - Finley - Finley - Jerilderie has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person, placing it among the 58th percentile of areas assessed nationally. New development consists of 94.0% standalone homes and 6.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 268 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market.

Population forecasts indicate Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie will gain 471 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 17 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Barooga Cobram Road Reconstruction, Thompsons Beach and Kennedy Park Precinct Plan, NCN Health Cobram Campus Redevelopment, and VICSES Cobram Unit, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie presents a mixed picture: unemployment remains low at 3.6%, yet recent job losses have affected its comparative national standing

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie features a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of only 3.6%. As of December 2025, 4,959 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.4% below Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation is on par with Regional NSW's 61.3%. Based on Census responses, a low 13.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share of 4.0 times the regional level. In contrast, health care & social assistance employs just 13.0% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 16.9%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw the labour force decrease by 2.0% combined with employment decreasing by 2.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.6 percentage points. By comparison, Regional NSW recorded an employment decline of 1.2%, a labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.3% over five years and 11.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $44,123 and an average of $52,857 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is below the national average, contrasting with Regional NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $48,032 (median) and $57,540 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie all fall between the 9th and 15th percentiles nationally. The data shows the predominant cohort spans 28.3% of locals (2,854 people) in the $400 - 799 category, diverging from the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 29.9%. While housing costs are modest with 89.4% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 15th percentile nationally.

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 91.5% houses and 8.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie was well beyond that of Regional NSW, at 50.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (29.4%) or rented (20.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional NSW average at $1,177, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $200, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 66.1% of all households, comprising 21.3% couples with children, 35.7% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.9%, with lone person households at 31.7% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.2 people is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (14.5%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.2%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (31.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 264 active transport stops operating within Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 32 individual routes, collectively providing 333 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 229 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 91%, with 7% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling. A relatively low 13.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 47 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 1 weekly trip per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~4,670 people). This compares to 51.9% across Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 13.0% and 9.4% of residents, respectively, while 58.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 34.0% of residents aged 65 and over (3,431 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The latest Census data sees Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 87.1% of its population being citizens, 91.2% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie is Christianity, which makes up 61.3% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie are English, comprising 33.0% of the population, Australian, comprising 31.8% of the population, and Irish, comprising 10.9% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Scottish is overrepresented at 9.0% in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie (vs 8.0% regionally), Australian Aboriginal at 2.4% (vs 4.6%), and Italian at 2.5% (vs 2.1%).

Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The 52-year median age in Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie is significantly above Regional NSW's average of 43 and similarly well above the national norm of 38. Compared to the Regional NSW average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented (18.4% locally), while 35 - 44 year-olds are under-represented (8.7%). This 65 - 74 concentration is well above the national 9.5%. In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 10.1% to 12.0% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 11.0% to 9.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie. The 75 to 84 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 18%, adding 220 residents to reach 1,432. Senior residents (65+) will drive 54% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. Conversely, both the 5 to 14 and 65 to 74 age groups will see reduced numbers.