Rutherglen

Population growth drivers in Rutherglen are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of Rutherglen is around 2,653. This reflects an increase of 74 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,579. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 2,652 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 33 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 21 persons per square kilometer. Rutherglen's growth rate of 2.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 1.1%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 55% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is forecasted to grow by 791 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 29.8% in total over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Rutherglen according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Rutherglen had approximately 18 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 91 dwellings. As of FY-26, 25 approvals have been recorded. The average population increase per year for each dwelling built in the area between FY-21 and FY-25 was 1.5 people. This indicates balanced supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions.

The average construction cost value of new homes approved in Rutherglen over this period was $571,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, $2.4 million worth of commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's predominantly residential nature. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Rutherglen has seen slightly more development, with 13.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period.

This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. However, building activity has slowed in recent years, consisting entirely of detached dwellings, which maintains the area's low density nature and attracts space-seeking buyers. Rutherglen has around 240 people per dwelling approval, further highlighting its low-density characteristics. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Rutherglen is projected to grow by approximately 790 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Rutherglen has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No infrastructure changes or major projects were identified by AreaSearch as likely impacting the area. Key projects are: North East Rail Line Upgrade, Inland Rail Beveridge to Albury (2019-2037), Inland Rail - Tottenham To Albury (2018-2025), and Regional Housing Fund.

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Employment drivers in Rutherglen are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Rutherglen has a skilled workforce with strong manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate is 5.2%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 1,239 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.7% (1.5% higher than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%).

Workforce participation is lower at 58.4%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. Census data shows that only 12.2% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries are manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and accommodation & food services. Manufacturing is particularly specialized with an employment share 2.7 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance has a limited presence at 11.2% compared to the regional figure of 16.8%.

The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the working population versus resident population count. Over the year to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 3.1%, with employment declining by 4.9%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.8 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. saw an employment fall of 0.6% and a labour force contraction of 0.7%, with unemployment falling by 0.1%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Rutherglen's employment mix indicates potential local employment increases of 4.9% over five years and 11.4% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Rutherglen has a lower income level than the national average, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Rutherglen is $48,683, and the average income stands at $56,395. In comparison, Regional Vic.'s median and average incomes are $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on a 9.62% increase in wages since financial year 2023, estimated current incomes would be approximately $53,366 (median) and $61,820 (average) as of March 2026. The 2021 Census figures indicate that household, family, and personal incomes in Rutherglen rank modestly, between the 20th and 32nd percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 31.7% of locals (841 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, which is consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region at 30.3%. While housing costs are modest, allowing for 88.1% of income to be retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 26th percentile nationally.

Rutherglen is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Rutherglen, as per the latest Census evaluation, 92.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 7.2% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rutherglen stood at 44.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.7% and rented ones at 19.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Rutherglen was $250, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Rutherglen's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Rutherglen features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.4% of all households, including 23.9% couples with children, 30.7% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.6%, with lone person households at 30.7% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Rutherglen shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 19.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (3.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (29.3%). Educational participation is high at 26.3%, comprising primary education (10.0%), secondary education (8.3%), and tertiary education (2.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 2.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates six active transport stops operating within Rutherglen. These stops are served by six individual bus routes, collectively offering 67 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 461 meters from the nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 93%, while 5% walk. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 12.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages nine trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately eleven weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Rutherglen are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Rutherglen's health indicators show below-average outcomes, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence data. Common health conditions were found to be slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts in the area.

Approximately 49% of Rutherglen's total population (~1,305 people) had private health cover, which is relatively low compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions were arthritis (impacting 10.3% of residents) and asthma (affecting 9.4%). In comparison, 60.6% of Rutherglen's residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, while the figure for Regional Vic was 63.4%. The working-age population in Rutherglen faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (27.6%, or 732 people) compared to Regional Vic's average of 23.9%. Health outcomes among seniors in Rutherglen are above average, with national rankings even higher than those for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Rutherglen placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Rutherglen, as per the census data from June 2016, showed a lower than average cultural diversity with 92.5% of its population born in Australia and 93.8% being citizens. The majority, 97.9%, spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 53.7% of Rutherglen's population identifying as Christian, compared to 47.3% across Regional Victoria.

The top three ancestry groups were English (33.5%), Australian (31.1%), and Irish (11.7%). Notably, Scottish ancestry was higher than the regional average at 9.5%, while German was at 4.5%. Macedonian ancestry was lower at 0.1% compared to Regional Victoria's 0.2%.

Rutherglen hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Rutherglen's median age is 47 years, significantly higher than the Regional Vic. average of 43 and substantially exceeding the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 15.2% of the population, while the 5-14 group is comparatively smaller at 10.4%, compared to Regional Vic.. This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and the present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 9.2% to 11.2% of the population, while the 0 to 4 cohort increased from 4.8% to 5.9%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.2% to 10.6%, and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 14.8% to 13.3%. By 2041, Rutherglen is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 58%, adding 162 people and reaching a total of 441 from 278. The 65 to 74 group displays more modest growth at 1%, adding only 2 residents.