Lavington

Population growth drivers in Lavington are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Lavington's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 16,014. This figure represents an increase of 349 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 15,665. The change can be inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,610 in June 2024 and the addition of 195 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 745 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively consistent with averages observed across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, an above median population growth is projected for non-metropolitan Australia's areas, with Lavington expected to increase by 2,425 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 12.6% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lavington according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lavington has recorded approximately 48 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 240 homes. As of FY26, 38 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.1 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were recorded between FY21 and FY25. This figure has eased to -0.1 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, reflecting improved supply availability. Development projects averaged $280,000 in construction value, aligning with broader regional development.

In FY26, $11.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Lavington records significantly lower building activity, at 58.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. Recent construction comprises 74.0% detached houses and 26.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 457 people, reflecting a quiet development environment.

According to AreaSearch quarterly estimates, Lavington is forecasted to gain 2,021 residents by 2041. Construction pace is maintaining reasonable growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as population grows.

Lavington has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 36thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 26 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Lavington Swim Centre Redevelopment, Lavington Social Housing Project, Kerr Road Infrastructure Upgrades, and Bright Steps Academy Lavington. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Lavington face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lavington's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 7.1% as of September 2025, which is 3.3% higher than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation stood at 66.1%, slightly above the regional average of 61.5%.

According to Census data, a low 6.6% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Manufacturing is notably concentrated in the area, with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence, with only 1.3% of employment compared to the regional average of 5.3%.

The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between the Census working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Lavington's labour force increased by 1.1% while employment declined by 0.5%, resulting in a 1.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, and a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Lavington's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Lavington SA2's median income among taxpayers was $50,658 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $55,334 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW which were $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. By September 2025, current estimates suggest a median income of approximately $55,146 and an average income of around $60,237 based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Lavington fall between the 9th and 18th percentiles nationally. In terms of individual earnings, the $1,500 - $2,999 band captures 28.7% of the community (4,596 individuals), which aligns with the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lavington, with only 83.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Lavington is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Lavington, as per the latest Census evaluation, 77.9% of dwellings were houses while 22.2% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lavington stood at 31.2%, with mortgaged properties at 29.2% and rented ones at 39.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Lavington was recorded as $250, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Lavington's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Lavington features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 60.3% of all households, including 21.0% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 14.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 39.7%, with lone person households at 35.9% and group households comprising 3.8%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Lavington faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This indicates a need for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 41.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 9.7% and certificates at 31.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lavington has 237 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 51 individual routes, collectively providing 1,584 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 136 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area, with car being the dominant mode at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 6.6% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 226 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Lavington is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Lavington faces substantial health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Only approximately 47% (~7,590 people) of Lavington's population has private health cover, compared to 51.9% in the rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 11.4 and 9.9% of residents respectively. However, 60.4% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in the rest of NSW. The working-age population faces significant health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. Lavington has 21.7% (3,470 people) of its residents aged 65 and over, lower than the 23.0% in the rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

Lavington ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lavington's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.0% of its population being citizens, born in Australia at a rate of 83.7%, and speaking English only at home at 87.5%. Christianity was the predominant religion in Lavington, comprising 49.7% of the population. Notably, the 'Other' category was overrepresented in Lavington, making up 2.6% compared to 0.8% across Rest of NSW.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (28.9%), English (28.6%), and Irish (8.5%) were the top three represented groups in Lavington's population. There were also notable differences in representation for certain ethnic groups: German was overrepresented at 5.7% compared to the regional average of 3.1%, Australian Aboriginal was present at 3.4% versus a regional rate of 4.6%, and Filipino was represented at 1.3% against a regional average of 0.6%.

Lavington's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Lavington is 40 years, which is slightly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 but somewhat above Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 age cohort makes up 15.2% of the population in Lavington, compared to the Rest of NSW average, indicating an over-representation. Conversely, those aged 55-64 make up only 11.2%, showing under-representation. According to the Census conducted on 28 August 2021, the percentage of people aged 25-34 has increased from 13.5% to 15.2%. Meanwhile, the proportion of those aged 65-74 has decreased from 12.1% to 11.5%. By the year 2041, population forecasts suggest significant demographic changes in Lavington. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 857 people (a 35% increase), reaching a total of 3,298 individuals. However, the 55-64 and 65-74 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.