Lavington
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Lavington are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Lavington's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, stands at approximately 15,848 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 183 individuals, marking a 1.2% rise from the 2021 Census count of 15,665 people. The change is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 15,662 in June 2024 and the addition of 190 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 738 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages observed across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed roughly 63.0% to overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts and considering recent population numbers, the area is expected to grow by 2,425 persons by 2041, indicating a total growth of 13.8% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lavington according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lavington has recorded approximately 64 residential properties granted approval annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis. Over the past five financial years, from FY20 to FY25, around 320 dwellings were approved, with an additional 10 approved so far in FY26. On average, about 1.1 new residents have arrived per new home over these five years, indicating balanced supply and demand conditions. However, this has decreased to -0.1 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting more balanced supply conditions recently.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $399,000, aligning with broader regional development trends. In FY26, there have been approximately $11.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of NSW, Lavington shows substantially reduced construction levels, at 58.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Additionally, this activity is lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

New development in Lavington consists predominantly of standalone homes (74.0%) with a smaller proportion of townhouses or apartments (26.0%), preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 457 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections indicate Lavington adding approximately 2,187 residents by 2041. Building activity appears to be keeping pace with these growth projections, though buyers may experience increased competition as the population grows.

Lavington has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 34thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 28 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Lavington Swim Centre Redevelopment, River Gum, Lavington Social Housing Project, and Kerr Road Infrastructure Upgrades, with the following list detailing those of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Lavington faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Lavington has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. Its unemployment rate was 6.7% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 3.9%.

As of June 2025, 8,123 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.1%, which is higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Lavington is similar to Rest of NSW at 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Lavington specializes in manufacturing, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level, but agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 1.3% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.9%, labour force grew by 4.5%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.1% and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, with a state unemployment rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, May 2025, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lavington's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.1% over five years and 13.1% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Lavington is $47,725 and average income is $52,752. This is lower than Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998. Based on a 10.6% increase since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for March 2025 are approximately $52,784 (median) and $58,344 (average). Lavington's household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 9th and 19th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort in Lavington is 28.7% of locals earning $1,500 - 2,999 annually, similar to the broader area at 29.9%. Income remaining after housing costs ranks at the 11th percentile, with only 83.6% of income left.

Lavington is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Lavington, as per the latest Census, consisted of 77.9% houses and 22.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Non-Metro NSW had 83.2% houses and 16.8% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Lavington was 31.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.2% and rented ones at 39.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure in Lavington was $250, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $265. Nationally, Lavington's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 versus the Australian average of $1,863. Similarly, rents in Lavington were substantially below the national figure of $375 at $250.

Lavington features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 60.3% of all households, including 21.0% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 14.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 39.7%, with lone person households at 35.9% and group households comprising 3.8%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Lavington faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 41.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (31.8%). Educational participation is high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 9.8% in primary, 7.6% in secondary, and 2.9% in tertiary education.

Lavington has a robust network of 7 schools educating approximately 1,998 students, consisting of 5 primary, 1 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. School places per 100 residents (12.6) are below the regional average (17.1), with some students likely attending schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lavington's public transport analysis shows 228 active stops operating within the area, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 50 different routes that together facilitate 1,424 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents located an average of 138 meters from their nearest transport stop.

On average, there are 203 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately six weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lavington is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Lavington faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data. Both younger and older age groups exhibit high prevalence rates for common health conditions. Private health cover is low, with approximately 47% of Lavington's total population (~7,401 people) having it, compared to 50.9% across the rest of NSW and the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions in the area, affecting 11.4% and 9.9% of residents respectively. However, 60.4% of Lavington's residents claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 64.2% across the rest of NSW. The population aged 65 and over is higher in Lavington than the state average, at 21.7% (3,434 people) versus 20.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present similar challenges to those seen in the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Lavington records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lavington's cultural diversity aligns with its wider region, with 86.0% citizens, 83.7% born in Australia, and 87.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 49.7%. The 'Other' category is notably higher at 2.6%, compared to Rest of NSW's 1.4%.

In ancestry, Australian (28.9%), English (28.6%), and Irish (8.5%) are the top groups. Some ethnicities show notable differences: German is slightly overrepresented at 5.7% (vs regional 5.9%), Australian Aboriginal at 3.4% (vs 2.7%), and Filipino at 1.3% (vs 0.7%).

Lavington's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Lavington is 40 years, which is slightly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. Compared to Rest of NSW, the 25-34 cohort is more prevalent in Lavington at 15.2%, while the 55-64 age group is less common at 11.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 25 to 34 increased from 13.5% to 15.2%, whereas the 65 to 74 age group decreased from 12.1% to 11.5%. By 2041, Lavington's population is projected to see significant demographic changes. The 25-34 age cohort is expected to grow by 882 people (37%), reaching 3,298 from the current 2,415. Conversely, the 55-64 and 65-74 cohorts are anticipated to decrease in population.