Lavington

Population growth drivers in Lavington are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Lavington's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 15,961, showing an increase of 296 people since the 2021 Census which reported a figure of 15,665. This growth is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 15,832 in June 2025 and validated new addresses since then. The population density is around 743 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 59.1% of overall population gains recently. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022, using 2021 as the base year, are applied. Growth rates by age group are used for all areas from 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, regional areas nationally are expected to grow above median levels, with Lavington projected to gain 2,340 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 13.8%.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lavington according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lavington has recorded approximately 48 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 240 homes. As of FY-26, 49 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 was 1.1, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. This figure has eased to -0.1 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, reflecting improved supply availability. Development projects have an average construction value of $280,000, aligning with broader regional development trends.

In FY-26, $11.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development activity. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Lavington records significantly lower building activity, at 57.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. The area's recent construction comprises 74.0% detached houses and 26.0% attached dwellings, preserving its low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. As of now, there are an estimated 457 people in the area per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Lavington is projected to gain 2,211 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Lavington has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 35thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects that could impact the region. Notable initiatives include the Lavington Swim Centre Redevelopment, Lavington Social Housing Project, Kerr Road Infrastructure Upgrades, and Bright Steps Academy Lavington. The following list outlines those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Lavington face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lavington's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate was 7.0%. By this date, 7,794 residents were employed, but the unemployment rate exceeded Regional NSW's by 3.0 percentage points (at 3.9%).

Workforce participation in Lavington was 64.1%, slightly higher than Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census responses, only 6.6% of residents worked from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Manufacturing stood out with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing had a limited presence, with only 1.3% of employment compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%. The predominantly residential area seemed to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Between December 2024 and November 2025, Lavington's labour force decreased by 2.0%, while employment declined by 3.4%, leading to a 1.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. In comparison, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decrease of 0.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that over five years, total employment is expected to expand by 6.6%. Over ten years, this growth is projected to reach 13.7%. However, industry-specific growth rates vary significantly. Applying these projections to Lavington's employment mix indicates a potential local employment increase of 6.1% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Lavington SA2's income level is below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ending June 30, 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Lavington was $50,658, with an average income of $55,334. For Regional NSW, these figures were $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since June 30, 2023, current estimates would be approximately $55,886 for median income and $61,044 for average income as of March 2026. According to the Australian Census of Population and Housing conducted in August 2021, household, family, and personal incomes in Lavington all fell between the 9th and 18th percentiles nationally. In terms of income distribution, 28.7% of individuals in Lavington earned between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, which aligns with metropolitan regions where this cohort also represents approximately 30%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lavington, with only 83.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Lavington is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Lavington, as evaluated at the latest Census held in August 2016, comprised 77.9% houses and 22.2% other dwellings including semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Regional NSW where 82.6% of dwellings were houses and 17.4% were other dwellings. Home ownership in Lavington stood at 31.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.2% and rented dwellings at 39.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Lavington was recorded at $250, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Lavington's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Lavington features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 60.3% of all households, including 21.0% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 14.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 39.7%, with lone person households at 35.9% and group households comprising 3.8%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Lavington faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 9.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (31.8%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lavington has 237 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 51 routes, collectively facilitating 1,584 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 136 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area, with cars being the dominant mode at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, lower than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, only 6.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 226 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Lavington is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Lavington faces significant health challenges, as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 47% of Lavington's total population (~7,565 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 11.4% and 9.9% of residents respectively. However, 60.4% of residents claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Lavington has 22.2% of its residents aged 65 and over (3,544 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Lavington ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lavington's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.0% of its population being citizens born in Australia speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Lavington, representing 49.7% of the population. Notably, the 'Other' category comprised 2.6%, higher than the Regional NSW average of 0.8%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (28.9%), English (28.6%), and Irish (8.5%). However, there were notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: German was overrepresented at 5.7% compared to the regional average of 3.1%, Australian Aboriginal was lower at 3.4% than regionally at 4.6%, and Filipino was also higher at 1.3% compared to the regional average of 0.6%.

Lavington's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Lavington is 40 years, which is slightly below Regional NSW's average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 age cohort makes up 15.0% of the population in Lavington, a notable increase from 13.5% recorded in the 2021 Census. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has decreased to 10.9%, down from 11.8%. By 2041, demographic forecasts indicate significant changes for Lavington's population. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow by 762 people (32%), reaching 3,150. Meanwhile, the 55-64 and 65-74 age groups are expected to experience population declines.