Lavington

Population growth drivers in Lavington are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Lavington's population is around 16,038 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 373 people (2.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,665 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,610 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 272 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 747 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above-median population growth for Australia's non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the area expected to increase by 2,425 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 12.4% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lavington according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lavington has recorded around 48 residential properties granted approval annually, totalling 240 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 43 approvals have been recorded. Given an average of 1.1 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, with recent figures indicating this has eased to -0.1 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, reflecting better supply availability. Development projects average $280,000 in construction value, aligned with broader regional development. Additionally, $11.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

When measured against the Rest of NSW, Lavington records markedly lower building activity (58.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. This level is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 74.0% detached houses and 26.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 457 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Lavington will gain 1,997 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers could encounter growing competition as population increases.

Lavington has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 36thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 26 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Lavington Swim Centre Redevelopment, Lavington Social Housing Project, Kerr Road Infrastructure Upgrades, and Bright Steps Academy Lavington, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Lavington face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lavington has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of 7.0%. As of December 2025, 7,794 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 3.0% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation is fairly standard (64.9% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a low 6.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in manufacturing, with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average. Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry & fishing has a limited presence with 1.3% employment compared to 5.3% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw the labour force decrease by 2.0% while employment declined by 3.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.3 percentage points. By comparison, Regional NSW recorded an employment decline of 1.2%, a labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Lavington. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Lavington's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.1% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Lavington SA2's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Lavington SA2's median income among taxpayers is $50,658 and the average income stands at $55,334, which compares to figures for Regional NSW's of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $55,146 (median) and $60,237 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Lavington all fall between the 9th and 18th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 28.7% of the community (4,602 individuals), aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.6% of income remaining, ranking at the 10th percentile.

Lavington is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Lavington, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 77.9% houses and 22.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Lavington was lagging that of Regional NSW, at 31.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (29.2%) or rented (39.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional NSW average at $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $250, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Lavington's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Lavington features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 60.3% of all households, comprising 21.0% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 14.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 39.7%, with lone person households at 35.9% and group households comprising 3.8% of the total. The median household size of 2.2 people is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Lavington faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (13.5%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 9.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (31.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 237 active transport stops operating within Lavington, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 51 individual routes, collectively providing 1,584 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 136 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, and the car remains the dominant mode at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A relatively low 6.6% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 226 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Lavington is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Lavington, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~7,602 people). This compares to 51.9% across Regional NSW. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 11.4 and 9.9% of residents, respectively, while 60.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 21.7% of residents aged 65 and over (3,485 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Lavington ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lavington was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 86.0% of its population being citizens, 83.7% born in Australia, and 87.5% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Lavington is Christianity, which makes up 49.7% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 2.6% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Lavington are Australian, comprising 28.9% of the population, English, comprising 28.6% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.5% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: German is notably overrepresented at 5.7% of Lavington (vs 3.1% regionally), Australian Aboriginal at 3.4% (vs 4.6%) and Filipino at 1.3% (vs 0.6%).

Lavington's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The 40-year median age in Lavington is modestly under Regional NSW's average of 43 though slightly above the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Regional NSW average, the 25 - 34 cohort is notably over-represented (15.8% locally), while 55 - 64 year-olds are under-represented (11.0%). Since the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 13.5% to 15.8% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 11.8% to 11.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Lavington. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, increasing by 767 people (30%) from 2,530 to 3,298. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.