Baranduda - Leneva

Baranduda - Leneva lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Baranduda - Leneva's population is around 14,984 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 2,206 people (17.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,778 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,294 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 882 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 60 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Baranduda - Leneva's 17.3% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (4.9%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and overseas migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of Australia's non-metropolitan areas, is predicted over the period, with the area expected to expand by 9,676 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 60.0% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Baranduda - Leneva was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Baranduda - Leneva has recorded around 252 residential properties granted approval each year, totalling 1,263 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26163 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 2.3 people per year moving to the area per new home constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), reflecting robust demand that underpins property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $281,000. Additionally, $2.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting a predominantly residential focus.

When measured against Rest of Vic., Baranduda - Leneva records 190.0% more new home approvals (per person), creating greater choice for buyers. This is substantially higher than nationally, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 98.0% standalone homes and 2.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 52 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Population forecasts indicate Baranduda - Leneva will gain 8,985 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Baranduda - Leneva has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 47 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Riverina Redevelopment Program (Albury Wodonga Military Area Redevelopment Project), Baranduda Electrical Energy Reserve (BESS), Leneva-Baranduda Precinct Structure Plan, and House Creek Precinct Housing, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Baranduda - Leneva significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Baranduda - Leneva possesses a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of just 2.1%. As of December 2025, 7,880 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.6% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (72.6% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%). Based on Census responses, a low 11.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and construction. The area has a particular employment specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 2.9 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 1.9% of Baranduda - Leneva's workforce compared to 7.5% in Regional Vic.. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 3.3% alongside a 3.7% employment decline, causing unemployment to rise by 0.4 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6%, a labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Baranduda - Leneva. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Baranduda - Leneva's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Baranduda - Leneva SA2 is below the national average, with the median assessed at $57,301 while the average income stands at $64,813. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $62,028 (median) and $70,160 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Baranduda - Leneva, between the 74th and 76th percentiles nationally. The data shows the predominant cohort spans 43.7% of locals (6,548 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the broader area where this cohort likewise represents 30.3%. After housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Baranduda - Leneva is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Baranduda - Leneva, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 99.5% houses and 0.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Baranduda - Leneva was lagging that of Regional Vic., at 27.5%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (49.7%) or rented (22.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Regional Vic. average at $1,707, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $385, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Baranduda - Leneva's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Baranduda - Leneva features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 83.2% of all households, comprising 42.1% couples with children, 30.1% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 16.8%, with lone person households at 14.6% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.9 people is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Baranduda - Leneva exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (22.8%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (3.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (29.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 23 active transport stops operating within Baranduda - Leneva, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 10 individual routes, collectively providing 243 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 1004 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 90%, with 8% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A relatively low 11.6% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 34 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Baranduda - Leneva are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average outcomes in Baranduda - Leneva, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical, though higher than the national average among older cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~7,671 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 9.0% and 8.5% of residents, respectively, while 70.3% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic.. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 12.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,823 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Baranduda - Leneva ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Baranduda - Leneva was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 88.0% of its population born in Australia, 93.1% being citizens, and 91.9% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Baranduda - Leneva is Christianity, which makes up 49.5% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Hinduism, which comprises 1.7% of the population, compared to 0.7% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Baranduda - Leneva are Australian, comprising 31.7% of the population, English, comprising 29.1% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.3% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is represented at 1.7% of Baranduda - Leneva (vs 1.7% regionally), German at 4.7% (vs 3.5%) and Scottish at 7.8% (vs 8.8%).

Baranduda - Leneva's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

The 32-year median age in Baranduda - Leneva is notably under Regional Vic.'s average of 43 and also substantially under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Regional Vic., Baranduda - Leneva has a higher concentration of 15 - 24 residents (15.3%) but fewer 65 - 74 year-olds (7.1%). Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 13.4% to 15.3% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 14.0% to 15.9%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 16.0% to 14.7%. By 2041, Baranduda - Leneva is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 89% (2,002 people), reaching 4,258 from 2,255.