Lavington

Population growth drivers in Lavington are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Lavington is around 13,399. This reflects an increase of 326 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,073 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 13,290 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 287 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 906 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's 2.5% growth since census positions it within 2.4 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (4.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. An above median population growth of Australia's regional areas is projected, with the suburb expected to increase by 2,000 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 14.1% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lavington according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Lavington shows around 43 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 215 homes. In FY-26 so far, 44 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents per new home over these five years is approximately zero. This suggests that supply meets or exceeds demand, offering greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average value of new homes being built is $399,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. In this financial year, $9.2 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Lavington shows substantially reduced construction activity (54.0% below the regional average per person), which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated population per dwelling approval in Lavington is 413 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Lavington is expected to grow by 1,891 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Lavington has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects that could impact the region. Notable initiatives include Lavington Swim Centre Redevelopment, Lavington Social Housing Project, Bright Steps Academy Lavington, and Kerr Road Infrastructure Upgrades. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Lavington face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lavington has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 6.8%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 6,585 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 9.7% (3.9% above Regional NSW's rate).

Workforce participation is 63.7%. Census responses indicate that only 6.7% of residents work from home. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Manufacturing stands out with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 1.1% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 5.3%.

Over the year to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.9%, and employment declined by 3.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Lavington's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows that Lavington had a median income among taxpayers of $47,688 and an average level of $52,735. This is below the national average of $65,215 and compares to levels of $52,390 across Regional NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $52,609 (median) and $58,177 (average) as of March 2026. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Lavington all fall between the 9th and 19th percentiles nationally. The largest income segment comprises 28.5% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (3,818 residents), reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 29.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 10th percentile.

Lavington is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Lavington, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.8% houses and 24.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lavington stood at 31.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.9% and rented ones at 41.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,257, below the Regional NSW average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Lavington was $250, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Lavington's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Lavington features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 59.0% of all households, including 20.0% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 13.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 41.0%, with lone person households at 37.0% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Lavington faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.6%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This indicates a need for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (31.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lavington has 217 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 49 different routes that together facilitate 1,559 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from a resident's location to the nearest transport stop is 135 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. Most residents commute outward due to Lavington being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation, used by 94% of residents. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 6.7% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 222 trips per day, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this analysis, displaying the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Lavington is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Lavington's health data indicates significant challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Notably high prevalence is observed across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is found to be low, at approximately 48% of the total population (~6,411 people), compared to Regional NSW's 51.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 11.5% and 9.7% of residents respectively. Conversely, 60.5% of residents report being free from medical ailments, compared to Regional NSW's 63.3%. The working-age population faces significant health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Lavington has 22.6% of its residents aged 65 and over (3,028 people), with senior health outcomes presenting some challenges but generally aligning with national rankings.

In terms of cultural diversity, Lavington records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lavington's cultural diversity aligns with the wider region's average, with 85.5% being citizens, 83.6% born in Australia, and 87.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Lavington, comprising 49.8% of its population. Notably, the 'Other' category is overrepresented in Lavington at 2.8%, compared to 0.8% across Regional NSW.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (28.6%), English (28.4%), and Irish (8.7%). Some ethnic groups show significant variations: German is overrepresented at 5.7% in Lavington (vs regional 3.1%), Dutch at 1.4% (vs 1.0%), and Australian Aboriginal at 3.3% (vs regional 4.6%).

Lavington's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Lavington is 40 years, which is slightly below Regional NSW's average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. In comparison to Regional NSW, the 25-34 cohort is significantly higher at 15.1% locally, while the 55-64 age group is lower at 11.3%. According to the 2021 Census, the percentage of the population aged 25 to 34 has increased from 13.5% to 15.1%, whereas the percentage of those aged 55 to 64 has decreased from 12.1% to 11.3%. By 2041, Lavington's population is projected to see significant demographic changes. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 638 people (32%), reaching a total of 2,662 from the current 2,023. Conversely, the 55-64 and 65-74 age groups are forecasted to experience population declines.