Lavington

Population growth drivers in Lavington are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Lavington's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 13,154 people. This figure reflects an increase of 81 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 13,073. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 12,984, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 191 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 890 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively consistent with averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, primarily driving growth in the suburb.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth for the suburb, with an expected expansion of 2,067 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections. This reflects a total increase of 14.9% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lavington according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Lavington has received approximately 41 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 206 homes. As of FY-26, 26 approvals have been recorded. The average population growth linked to these dwellings was around 1.1 people per year between FY-21 and FY-25, but this has moderated to -0.1 people per dwelling over the past two financial years. Development projects averaged $399,000 in construction value, aligning with regional trends. This financial year saw $11.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to Rest of NSW, Lavington shows significantly reduced construction activity, at 57.0% below the regional average per person. New development consists primarily of detached houses (76.0%) and attached dwellings (24.0%), maintaining the area's traditional low-density character. The estimated population count per dwelling approval is 415 people. AreaSearch predicts Lavington will grow by 1,964 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Looking ahead, Lavington is expected to grow by 1,964 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Lavington has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 26 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include: Lavington Swim Centre Redevelopment, Lavington Social Housing Project, Bright Steps Academy Lavington, and Kerr Road Infrastructure Upgrades. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Lavington are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Lavington has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs well represented. Key sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Notably, manufacturing employment is high at 1.7 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing, however, has limited presence at 1.1% compared to 5.3% regionally. As of June 2025, 6,932 residents are employed with an unemployment rate of 6.5%, indicating a growth of 4.0% over the past year. The area's unemployment rate is 2.9% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation is similar to Rest of NSW at 56.4%. Over the past year, employment increased by 4.0%, while labour force grew by 4.5%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.1% and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lavington's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Lavington's median income among taxpayers was $47,688 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $52,735 during the same period. These figures are lower than those for Rest of NSW, which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. By September 2025, based on a 12.61% increase since financial year 2022, estimated median income in Lavington would be approximately $53,701, with an average of around $59,385. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Lavington fall between the 9th and 19th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. In terms of income distribution, 28.5% of Lavington residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, which is similar to the broader area where this group represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lavington, with only 83.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Lavington is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Lavington's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.8% houses and 24.3% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 83.2% houses and 16.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lavington was at 31.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.9% and rented ones at 41.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,257, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure in Lavington was $250, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $265. Nationally, Lavington's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,257 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Lavington features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.0% of all households, including 20.0% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 13.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 41.0%, with lone person households at 37.0% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Lavington faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 13.6%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 41.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (31.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education. Six schools operate within Lavington, educating approximately 1,787 students. The area has varied educational conditions (ICSEA: 946) and includes four primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lavington has 210 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 47 different routes that together facilitate 1,394 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 136 meters to the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there is an average of 199 trips per day, resulting in approximately six weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lavington is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Lavington faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data. Both younger and older age groups show high prevalence rates for common health conditions. Only approximately 48% (~6,294 people) of Lavington's total population has private health cover, compared to 50.9% in the Rest of NSW and the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues affect 11.5% of residents, while arthritis impacts 9.7%. Conversely, 60.5% of residents report having no medical ailments, slightly lower than the 64.2% reported in the Rest of NSW. Lavington has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.0% (2,893 people), compared to 20.1% in the Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with those of the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Lavington records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lavington's cultural diversity was found to align with the broader region, with 85.5% of its population being citizens, 83.6% born in Australia, and 87.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was identified as the predominant religion in Lavington, comprising 49.8% of people. The notable overrepresentation was seen in the 'Other' category, with 2.8% of Lavington's population compared to 1.4% across Rest of NSW.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (28.6%), English (28.4%), and Irish (8.7%) were the top three represented groups in Lavington. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: German was overrepresented at 5.7%, Dutch at 1.4%, and Australian Aboriginal at 3.3%.

Lavington's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Lavington is 40 years, which is slightly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 15.3% of Lavington's population, notably higher than the Rest of NSW average, while the 55-64 age group is under-represented at 11.5%. In the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group increased from 13.5% to 15.3%, and the 65 to 74 age group decreased from 12.2% to 11.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Lavington. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow by 758 people (38%), reaching 2,771 from the current 2,012. Meanwhile, the 55-64 and 65-74 age groups are expected to decrease in population.