Lavington

Population growth drivers in Lavington are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Lavington's population is estimated at around 13,365 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 292 people (2.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,073 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 13,019 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 191 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 904 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth of Australian non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the Lavington SA2 expected to expand by 2,067 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 13.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lavington according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Lavington has around 43 dwelling approvals per year. From FY-21 to FY-25, there were approximately 215 homes approved, with an additional 33 in FY-26 so far. This results in about 1.1 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past five financial years. However, this has eased to -0.1 people per dwelling over the past two financial years.

The average construction value of development projects is $399,000, above regional levels. In FY-26, there have been $9.2 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating limited commercial development focus. Compared to Rest of NSW, Lavington has significantly less development activity, at 55.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes, which is also under the national average. New development consists of 75.0% standalone homes and 25.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining Lavington's traditional low density character.

The estimated population per dwelling approval in the area is 415 people. Future projections show Lavington adding 1,753 residents by 2041, with building activity keeping pace with growth projections despite potential increased competition among buyers as the population grows.

Lavington has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects that could impact the area. Notable projects include the Lavington Swim Centre Redevelopment, Lavington Social Housing Project, Bright Steps Academy Lavington, and Kerr Road Infrastructure Upgrades. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Lavington face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lavington's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.0% in the past year, showing relative stability.

As of September 2025, 6,660 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.1%, higher than Rest of NSW's 3.8%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of NSW at 56.4%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Manufacturing stands out with a share 1.7 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 1.1% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels increased by 1.1%, while employment declined by 0.5%, leading to a 1.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw a 0.4 percentage point unemployment increase with milder employment and labour force changes. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National forecasts from May-25 project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lavington's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Lavington's median income among taxpayers was $47,688, with an average of $52,735. This is lower than the national average. Rest of NSW had a median of $52,390 and an average of $65,215 during this period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $51,913 (median) and $57,407 (average). Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Lavington fall between the 9th and 19th percentiles nationally. Income brackets show 28.5% of Lavington's population (3,809 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to regional levels where this cohort represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lavington, with only 83.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Lavington is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Lavington, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.8% houses and 24.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 83.2% houses and 16.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lavington was at 31.0%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (27.9%) or rented (41.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,257, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $250, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $265. Nationally, Lavington's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Lavington features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.0% of all households, including 20.0% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 13.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 41.0%, with lone person households at 37.0% and group households making up 3.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Lavington faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.6%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 9.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 41.3% of residents aged 15 and above holding them.

Advanced diplomas account for 9.8% while certificates make up 31.5%. Educational participation is high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lavington has 217 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 49 different routes that together facilitate 1,559 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from a resident's location to the nearest transport stop is 135 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility.

On average, there are 222 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lavington is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Lavington faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 48% (6,395 people), compared to 51.1% in Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues affect 11.5% of residents, while arthritis impacts 9.7%.

Sixty-point-five percent declare no medical ailments, compared to 64.2% in Rest of NSW. Lavington has 22.0% (2,940 people) aged 65 and over, higher than the 20.1% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Lavington records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lavington's cultural diversity aligns with its wider region, with 85.5% citizens, 83.6% born in Australia, and 87.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 49.8%. The 'Other' category is overrepresented at 2.8%, compared to 1.4% regionally.

Top ancestral groups are Australian (28.6%), English (28.4%), and Irish (8.7%). Notably, German ancestry is slightly overrepresented at 5.7%, Dutch at 1.4%, and Australian Aboriginal at 3.3%.

Lavington's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Lavington is 40 years, which is slightly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 age group comprises 15.3% of the population in Lavington, compared to Rest of NSW's average, indicating an over-representation of this cohort. Conversely, the 55-64 age group makes up 11.5%, showing under-representation relative to Rest of NSW. According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of the population aged 25 to 34 has increased from 13.5% to 15.3%. Meanwhile, the proportion of those aged 65 to 74 has decreased from 12.2% to 11.5%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are projected for Lavington. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 726 people (36%), reaching a total of 2,771 individuals. Conversely, the 55-64 and 65-74 age groups are forecasted to experience population declines.