Chiltern

An assessment of population growth drivers in Chiltern reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the Chiltern statistical area's population is estimated at around 1,615 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 35 people (2.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,580 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,610 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 8.1 persons per square kilometer. Chiltern's 2.2% growth since census positions it within 2.6 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.8%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, an above median population growth of Australia's regional areas is projected, with the area expected to increase by 357 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 23.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Chiltern according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Chiltern has seen approximately five new homes approved annually, with 28 approvals between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, and three so far in FY-26. Each dwelling is estimated to accommodate an average of 2.7 new residents per year over the past five financial years.

The average construction cost value for new homes is $451,000, indicating a focus on premium market properties. Compared to Rest of Vic., Chiltern has roughly half the building activity per person and ranks in the 41st percentile nationally, suggesting limited housing choices and supporting demand for existing homes. New constructions have been exclusively detached dwellings, maintaining Chiltern's low-density character and appealing to those seeking family homes with space. There are estimated to be 407 people per dwelling approval in the area.

By 2041, Chiltern is forecasted to gain 380 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Chiltern has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No infrastructure changes significantly influence a region's performance. AreaSearch has identified zero projects impacting this area. Notable initiatives include North East Rail Line Upgrade, Inland Rail Beveridge to Albury, Inland Rail - Tottenham To Albury, and Regional Housing Fund (Victoria). Relevant projects are listed below.

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The labour market performance in Chiltern lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Chiltern has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs, particularly in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 5.9%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, Chiltern has 791 residents employed while its unemployment rate stands at 2.2% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries employing residents are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. Manufacturing particularly has notable concentration with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average.

Conversely, accommodation & food services are under-represented at 3.5% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 6.9%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. In the 12 months prior, labour force decreased by 1.8%, employment declined by 2.8%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.0 percentage points. Comparatively, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with state unemployment rate at 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Chiltern. Five-year projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% and ten-year projections at 13.7%. Applying these projections to Chiltern's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Chiltern's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2023 was $44,330, with an average income of $52,478. This is below the national averages of $50,954 and $62,728 for Rest of Vic. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $47,987 and average income $56,807, based on an 8.25% growth since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Chiltern fall between the 20th and 25th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 30.6% of the community (494 individuals), similar to the regional pattern where 30.3% occupy this range. Housing costs are modest with 87.8% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 26th percentile nationally.

Chiltern is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Chiltern, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 93.3% houses and 6.7% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 91.6% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chiltern was 45.5%, with the remainder being mortgaged (43.0%) or rented (11.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Chiltern was $1,300, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,473 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Chiltern was $260, while Non-Metro Vic.'s was $280 and the national figure was $375.

Chiltern features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.1% of all households, including 24.1% couples with children, 32.3% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.9%, with lone person households at 30.8% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Chiltern fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.0%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.6%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.6%). Vocational credentials are held by 41.7% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 30.9%. Educational participation is high, with 26.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.8% in secondary education, 8.4% in primary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates three active public transport stops in Chiltern. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services, operated by three individual routes. The total weekly passenger trips provided by these routes is 53.

Transport accessibility in the area is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 572 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages seven trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately seventeen weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Chiltern is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Chiltern faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health coverage is low, at approximately 48% (around 769 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 12.8 and 9.7% of residents respectively. Conversely, 57.0% reported no medical ailments, lower than the Rest of Vic's 64.1%. Chiltern has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 25.4% (around 410 people), compared to Rest of Vic's 20.7%. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly similar to those in the general population.

The latest Census data sees Chiltern placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Chiltern's population showed low cultural diversity, with 88.8% born in Australia and 92.7% being citizens. Most residents spoke English only at home (98.2%). Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 49.6%, slightly higher than the regional average of 48.2%.

Ancestry-wise, Australian (34.5%), English (32.9%), and Irish (9.4%) were the top groups. Some ethnicities had notable differences: Welsh at 0.8% compared to 0.4% regionally, Dutch at 1.9% versus 1.6%, and Serbian at 0.5% against 0.2%.

Chiltern ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Chiltern's median age is 50, exceeding Rest of Vic.'s figure of 43 and the national average of 38. The 55-64 age group comprises 16.8%, higher than Rest of Vic., while the 25-34 cohort is at 7.6%. Nationally, this 55-64 concentration is above the 11.2% figure. Post-2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group grew from 10.3% to 12.2%, while the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 14.9% to 14.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Chiltern's age profile. The 45 to 54 age cohort is expected to grow by 77 people (34%) from 226 to 304, while the 55 to 64 cohort grows modestly by 5% (12 people).