Chiltern

An assessment of population growth drivers in Chiltern reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Chiltern is around 1,615, reflecting a growth of 35 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 1,580. This increase represents a 2.2% change from the previous census figure. The current resident population estimate of 1,610 by AreaSearch is based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 8.1 persons per square kilometer. Chiltern's population growth rate of 2.2% since the census places it within 2.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Interstate migration contributed approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with other factors such as natural growth and overseas migration also being positive contributors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Chiltern is expected to grow by 351 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 21.4% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Chiltern according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Chiltern averaged around 5 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 28 homes were approved, with 3 more in FY-26 so far.

Each dwelling built over these years attracted an average of 2.8 new residents. New homes are constructed at an average cost of $451,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. Compared to Rest of Vic., Chiltern has roughly half the building activity per person and ranks in the 41st percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer options but strong demand for established homes. All new construction consists of detached dwellings, maintaining Chiltern's traditional low density character.

The area has an estimated 406 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, AreaSearch quarterly estimates predict Chiltern will grow by 346 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and price growth.

Chiltern has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No factors influence a region's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, significant projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects expected to impact this area. Notable projects include North East Rail Line Upgrade, Inland Rail Beveridge to Albury, Inland Rail - Tottenham To Albury, and Regional Housing Fund (Victoria). The following list details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Chiltern faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Chiltern's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well represented. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate is 6.1%. The area has an aggregated statistical data unemployment rate of 2.4% above Regional Vic.'s 3.7%, with a workforce participation rate of 59.3%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%.

A moderate 15.0% of residents work from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. Manufacturing stands out with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, accommodation & food services are under-represented, with only 3.5% of Chiltern's workforce compared to Regional Vic.'s 6.9%.

The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the working population vs resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 3.8%, while employment declined by 5.5%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with a 0.1 percentage point drop in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Chiltern's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch aggregated latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023. In Chiltern, median income among taxpayers was $44,330 with an average of $52,478. This is lower than the national average and compares to $50,954 and $62,728 in Regional Vic respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $47,987 (median) and $56,807 (average). Census 2021 income data shows Chiltern's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 20th and 25th percentiles nationally. The $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 30.6% of residents (494 people), similar to regional levels at 30.3%. Housing costs are modest with 87.8% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 26th percentile nationally.

Chiltern is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Chiltern, as evaluated at the latest Census conducted on 27 August 2016, comprised 93.3% houses and 6.7% other dwellings. This is compared to Regional Victoria's figures of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. The level of home ownership in Chiltern was 45.5%, with the remainder either mortgaged at 43.0% or rented at 11.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $260. In comparison, Regional Victoria's averages were $1,430 and $285 respectively. Nationally, Chiltern's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, as reported on 9 December 2020, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375 for the same period.

Chiltern features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.1% of all households, including 24.1% couples with children, 32.3% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.9%, consisting of 30.8% lone person households and 3.0% group households. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Chiltern fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.0%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.6%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (30.9%). Educational participation is high, with 26.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.8% in secondary education, 8.4% in primary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Chiltern has three active public transport stops, offering a mix of train services. These are served by three distinct routes, collectively facilitating 53 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents typically residing 572 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most residents commute outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 94%, while walking accounts for 6%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, exceeding regional averages.

According to the 2021 Census, 15% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages seven trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly seventeen weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Chiltern is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Chiltern faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (around 769 people), compared to 50.5% in Regional Victoria and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis, affecting 12.8% of residents, and mental health issues, impacting 9.7%. However, 57.0% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Victoria. Working-age population health is notably challenging due to high chronic condition rates. Chiltern has 26.0% of residents aged 65 and over (419 people), higher than the 23.9% in Regional Victoria. Senior health outcomes present challenges, with rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Chiltern placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Chiltern's population showed low cultural diversity, with 88.8% born in Australia and 92.7% being citizens. English was the home language for 98.2%. Christianity dominated Chiltern's religion at 49.6%, slightly higher than Regional Vic's 47.3%.

Ancestry showed Australian (34.5%), English (32.9%), and Irish (9.4%) as top groups. Notable differences existed in Welsh (0.8% vs regional 0.4%), Dutch (1.9% vs 1.7%), and Serbian (0.5% vs 0.2%) representation.

Chiltern ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Chiltern's median age is 49, surpassing Regional Vic.'s figure of 43 and Australia's 38 years. The 55-64 age group is notably over-represented in Chiltern at 16.3%, compared to the Regional Vic. average, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 7.8%. This concentration of the 55-64 cohort is significantly higher than the national average of 11.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.3% to 12.7%, while the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 17.4% to 16.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Chiltern's age structure. The 45 to 54 age group is projected to grow by 70 people (31%), from 229 to 300. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 cohort grows by a modest 4% (7 people).