Chiltern

An assessment of population growth drivers in Chiltern reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for Chiltern, as of Nov 2025 its population is estimated at around 1,614. This reflects an increase of 34 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,580. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 1,605 following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, and an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 8.1 persons per square kilometer. Chiltern's growth rate of 2.2% since census positions it within 2.0 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 4.2%. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 66.0% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projecting forward with demographic trends, an above median population growth is expected for Australia's regional areas. The suburb of Chiltern is projected to increase by 358 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 23.7% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Chiltern according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Chiltern has seen around 5 new homes approved each year. An estimated 25 homes were approved over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 2 approved so far in FY-26. On average, approximately 3 new residents per year have been associated with each dwelling approval during these years, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $451,000. This financial year has seen $10.7 million in commercial approvals registered, suggesting balanced commercial development activity in the area. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Chiltern has significantly less development activity, 54.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. The level of development activity is also lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

Recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval in Chiltern is 542 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate that Chiltern will gain 382 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the area.

Chiltern has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No changes can influence a region's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are expected to significantly impact the area. Notable projects include North East Rail Line Upgrade, Inland Rail Beveridge to Albury, Inland Rail - Tottenham To Albury, and Regional Housing Fund (Victoria). The following list details those projects considered most relevant.

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The labour market performance in Chiltern lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Chiltern's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent sectors being essential services. The unemployment rate is 5.5%.

Over the past year, employment has remained relatively stable. As of June 2025790 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate at 1.7% above Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, and workforce participation similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. Manufacturing is particularly strong, with employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Accommodation & food services have a limited presence at 3.5%, compared to 6.9% regionally. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by Census working population versus resident population comparison. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 0.1%, labour force by 1.2%, raising the unemployment rate by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline by 0.9% and labour force decline by 0.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Chiltern's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Chiltern's median income among taxpayers was $44,330 in financial year 2022, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. The average income stood at $52,478 during the same period. These figures compare to Rest of Vic.'s median and average incomes of $48,741 and $60,693 respectively. Based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes would be approximately $49,721 (median) and $58,859 (average) as of September 2025. Census data from 2021 shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Chiltern all fall between the 20th and 25th percentiles nationally. Income distribution indicates that the largest segment comprises 30.6% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (493 residents), which is similar to patterns seen at regional levels where 30.3% occupy this range. Housing costs are modest, with 87.8% of income retained, but the total disposable income ranks at just the 26th percentile nationally.

Chiltern is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Chiltern's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 93.3% houses and 6.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 91.6% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chiltern stood at 45.5%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (43.0%) or rented (11.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Chiltern was $1,300, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,473. The median weekly rent figure in Chiltern was recorded at $260, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $280. Nationally, Chiltern's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Chiltern features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.1% of all households, including 24.1% couples with children, 32.3% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 33.9%, with lone person households at 30.8% and group households making up 3.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Chiltern fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.0%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.6%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (30.9%). Educational participation is high, at 26.6%, comprising secondary education (9.8%), primary education (8.4%), and tertiary education (2.5%).

Chiltern Primary School and St Joseph's School serve a total of 93 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 969) and balanced educational opportunities. Both schools focus on primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas. Local school capacity is limited at 5.8 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 17.5, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Chiltern has three active public transport stops operating, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by five distinct routes that together facilitate 77 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as moderate, with residents typically residing 572 meters away from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 11 trips per day, equating to approximately 25 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Chiltern is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Chiltern faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Only approximately 48% (~769 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.8%) and mental health issues (9.7%). Conversely, 57.0% report no medical ailments, compared to 64.1% in the rest of Victoria. Chiltern has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 25.4% (409 people), compared to 20.7% in the rest of Victoria. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly similar to those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Chiltern placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Chiltern had a low level of cultural diversity, with 88.8% of its population born in Australia, 92.7% being citizens, and 98.2% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion was Christianity, which accounted for 49.6% of the population, slightly higher than the 48.2% average across Victoria. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (34.5%), English (32.9%), and Irish (9.4%).

Notably, Welsh people made up 0.8% of Chiltern's population, compared to 0.4% regionally; Dutch people constituted 1.9%, versus 1.6%; and Serbian people represented 0.5%, against 0.2%.

Chiltern ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Chiltern's median age is 50, which exceeds the Rest of Vic. figure of 43 and is well above the national average of 38. The 55-64 age group makes up 16.8% of Chiltern's population, higher than Rest of Vic.'s percentage but lower than the national average of 25%. Meanwhile, the 25-34 cohort represents only 7.6%, compared to the national average of 19.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.3% to 12.2%, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased slightly from 14.9% to 14.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Chiltern's age profile. The 45-54 age group is expected to grow by 76 people (34%), from 227 to 304. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort is projected to grow by a modest 5% (14 people).