Nhill

An assessment of population growth drivers in Nhill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of the Nhill statistical area (Lv2) is around 2,322 people, reflecting a decrease of 79 individuals since the 2021 Census. This decline represents a 3.3% change from the previous population count of 2,401 people. The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 14 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 2.5 persons per square kilometer. The primary driver for population growth in recent periods has been overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to estimate population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, the Nhill (SA2) is expected to expand by 70 persons to reach a total of 2,392 people by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 1.2% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Nhill is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Nhill experiences very limited development activity, averaging two approvals per year over five years from 2015 to 2019. This results in a total of twelve approvals during this period. Such low development levels are characteristic of rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is naturally limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity.

It is important to note that the small number of approvals can significantly impact annual growth and relativity statistics on an individual project basis. Compared to other regions, Nhill shows significantly less construction activity than Rest of Vic.. The development pattern in Nhill is also well below national averages. All new constructions since 2015 have been standalone homes, maintaining the area's rural nature with emphasis on space.

This is reflected by the estimated count of 767 people per dwelling approval, indicating a quiet and low activity development environment. Future projections based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate show Nhill adding 29 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Nhill has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

No changes can influence an area's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. A total of 0 projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements, EnergyConnect, Mildura Passenger Rail Return, and Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), with the following list detailing those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Nhill ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Nhill has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services sectors well-represented. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 1.3%, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

In September 2025, 1,179 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.5% below Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs 3.3 times the regional level, while accommodation & food services employ just 2.5% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 6.9%.

From September 2024 to September 2025, the labour force decreased by 4.4%, employment decreased by 3.1%, causing unemployment to fall by 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment contract by 0.7% and a marginal rise in unemployment. By 25-Nov-25, VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Nhill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Nhill is lower than average nationally. The median income is $51,053 and the average income is $62,469. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $55,265 (median) and $67,623 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Nhill, between the 19th and 31st percentiles. Income analysis shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 32.3% of residents (750 people), mirroring regional levels where 30.3% occupy this bracket. Housing costs are manageable with 92.6% retained, but disposable income sits below average at the 31st percentile.

Nhill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Nhill's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 93.1% houses and 6.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is similar to Non-Metro Vic.'s figures of 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Nhill stood at 49.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.3% and rented ones at 23.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $774, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,043. Median weekly rent in Nhill was $200, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $215. Nationally, Nhill's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $774 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Nhill features high concentrations of lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.9% of all households, including 24.5% couples with children, 30.9% couples without children, and 7.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up 35.1%, with lone person households at 31.4% and group households comprising 3.6%. The median household size is 2.3 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

Nhill faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.0%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.3%) and certificates (28.2%). A total of 24.9% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, comprising 8.7% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 2.2% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.9% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 2.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates three active transport stops operating within Nhill, consisting of a mix of train and bus services. These stops are serviced by three individual routes, collectively providing 21 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 627 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages three trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately seven weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Nhill is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Nhill. Both younger and older age groups have notable prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 52% (~1,197 people) have private health cover, lower than the 49.1% across Rest of Vic. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.3%) and asthma (7.7%). About 63.9% claim to be free from medical ailments compared to 61.2% in Rest of Vic. Approximately 26.6% (~617 people) of residents are aged 65 and over, higher than the 25.2% in Rest of Vic. Health outcomes among seniors show some challenges but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

In terms of cultural diversity, Nhill records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Nhill's population was found to be roughly similar to the wider region in terms of cultural diversity, with 86.0% being citizens, 83.2% born in Australia, and 85.2% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Nhill was Christianity, comprising 61.8% of people, compared to 51.6% across the Rest of Vic. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.1%), Australian (29.0%), and German (10.4%).

Notably, French ethnicity was overrepresented in Nhill at 0.6%, compared to 0.3% regionally, as was South African at 0.5% (vs 0.1%) and Scottish at 8.0% (vs 9.0%).

Nhill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Nhill's median age is 47 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of Vic. average of 43 years and substantially exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 85+ are particularly prominent at 5.1%, while the 35-44 group is comparatively smaller at 9.5% compared to the Rest of Vic. In the period from 2021 to present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 10.1% to 10.8% of the population. By the year 2041, Nhill is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 45-54 group is projected to grow by 22%, increasing from 264 people to 322. Meanwhile, both the 15-24 and 65-74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.