Nhill

An assessment of population growth drivers in Nhill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Analysis of ABS population updates for the suburb of Nhill indicates an estimated population of around 2,351 as of Feb 2026. This figure reflects a decrease of 50 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,401. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 2,295 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 62 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2.5 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Nhill has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.1%, outpacing its SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these trends, lower quartile growth of Australian non-metropolitan areas is anticipated, with the suburb expected to expand by 74 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 0.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Nhill, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Nhill has averaged around 5 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 26 homes. So far in FY-26, which began on July 1st, 2025 and will end on June 30th, 2026, 3 approvals have been recorded.

With population declining over recent years, new supply has likely been keeping up with demand. The average value of new homes being built is $570,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. Compared to Rest of Vic., Nhill records about 64% of the building activity per person. Nationally, it places among the 59th percentile of areas assessed.

However, building activity has accelerated in recent years. This activity is similarly under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New building activity shows 83.0% standalone homes and 17.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 255 people per dwelling approval, Nhill shows characteristics of a low density area. Future projections show Nhill adding 18 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Nhill has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No infrastructure changes or major projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area. Key projects include Melbourne To Adelaide Freight Rail Improvements, EnergyConnect, Mildura Passenger Rail Return, and Regional Housing Fund (Victoria).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Nhill ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Nhill has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented in the area, which has an unemployment rate of 1.1%. This rate is lower than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, as of December 2025.

The participation rate in Nhill's workforce is similar to that of Regional Vic., at 61.5%. According to Census data, only 10.7% of residents work from home. Key industries for employment among residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Agriculture, forestry & fishing stands out with employment levels at 3.3 times the regional average, while accommodation & food services is under-represented at 2.5% compared to Regional Vic.'s 6.9%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population counts. Over a 12-month period ending in December 2025, Nhill's labour force decreased by 2.0%, while employment declined by 0.3%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate of 1.7 percentage points. In comparison, Regional Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decrease of 0.7%, with the unemployment rate falling by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that over five years, employment is projected to expand by 6.6%, and over ten years by 13.7%. Applying these projections to Nhill's employment mix indicates potential growth of 5.7% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Nhill suburb's median taxpayer income is $51,053 and average is $62,469, based on latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is below national averages of $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average) in Regional Vic. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $55,265 (median) and $67,623 (average), accounting for an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Census 2021 income data ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Nhill between the 19th and 31st percentiles. The predominant income cohort spans 759 people (32.3%) within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to metropolitan regions at 30.3%. Housing costs are manageable with 92.6% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 31st percentile.

Nhill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Nhill's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.1% houses and 6.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Nhill stood at 49.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.3% and rented ones at 23.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $774, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure in Nhill was $200, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Nhill's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Nhill features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.9% of all households, including 24.5% couples with children, 30.9% couples without children, and 7.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.1%, with lone person households at 31.4% and group households comprising 3.6%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Nhill faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.0%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.3%) and certificates (28.2%). A total of 24.9% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, comprising 8.7% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 2.2% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.9% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 2.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Nhill indicates that there are three active transport stops currently operating. These stops are serviced by three individual routes, collectively providing twenty-one weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located six hundred and twenty-seven meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. The dominant mode of transportation is car at eighty-three percent, with thirteen percent walking. Vehicle ownership averages one point six per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low ten point seven percent of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages three trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately seven weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Nhill is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Nhill faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 52% of the total population (~1,212 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis (11.3%) and asthma (7.7%). 63.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. There are 26.7% of residents aged 65 and over (627 people), higher than the 23.9% in Regional Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Nhill records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Nhill's population showed cultural diversity comparable to the wider region, with 86.0% citizens, 83.2% born in Australia, and 85.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Nhill at 61.8%, compared to 47.3% across Regional Vic. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.1%), Australian (29.0%), and German (10.4%), with German notably higher than the regional average of 3.5%.

French, South Australian, and Scottish ethnicities showed notable divergences: French at 0.6% in Nhill vs 0.3% regionally, South Australian at 0.5% vs 0.2%, and Scottish at 8.0% vs 8.8%.

Nhill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Nhill's median age is 47 years, which is significantly higher than Regional Vic.'s average of 43 years and substantially exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are particularly prominent at 13.5%, while the 35-44 group is comparatively smaller at 9.9% compared to Regional Vic.. Since 2021, the 35-44 age group has grown from 8.9% to 9.9% of the population. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 11.8% to 10.9%. By 2041, Nhill is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 45-54 group is projected to grow by 24%, reaching 318 people from 256. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.