Moyne - West

An assessment of population growth drivers in Moyne - West reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Moyne - West's population is around 10,260 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 246 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,014 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,246 from the ABS as of June 2025 and an additional 143 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 5.0 persons per square kilometer. Moyne - West's growth rate of 2.5% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's growth rate of 0.4%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 63.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Over this period, projections indicate an overall decline in population, with the area's population expected to reduce by 2,947 persons by 2041. However, growth is anticipated within specific age cohorts, particularly the 85 and over age group, which is projected to increase by 54 people.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Moyne - West when compared nationally

Moyne - West has recorded approximately 51 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 258 homes were approved, with an additional 31 approved so far in FY26. On average, 1.4 people moved to the area each year for every dwelling built during these years, indicating balanced supply and demand dynamics.

The average construction cost value of new properties is $415,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year has seen $23.3 million in commercial approvals, reflecting moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to other Victorian areas, Moyne - West records 19% less building activity per person and ranks at the 58th percentile nationally for assessed areas.

New developments consist predominantly of detached houses (97%) with a minority of townhouses or apartments (3%), maintaining the area's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 262 people per dwelling approval, Moyne - West exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. Population projections indicating stability or decline may reduce housing demand pressures in the future, benefiting potential buyers.

Moyne - West has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 25thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 26 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Port Fairy Play and Skate Park, Port Fairy East Beach Landfill Coastal Adaptation Plan, Rivers Run Estate, and East Beach Upgrades. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Moyne - West significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Moyne-West has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 1.5% as of December 2025. There are 5,071 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 2.2 percentage points below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is at the same level as Regional Vic., which is 61.0%.

According to Census responses, 19.2% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries of employment are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and construction. Moyne-West has a notably high concentration in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average. However, education & training is under-represented, with only 7.7% of Moyne-West's workforce compared to 9.1% in Regional Vic..

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between December 2024 and 2025, the labour force decreased by 6.4%, while employment declined by 6.8%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that while national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Moyne-West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Moyne - West SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $49,751 and an average of $62,671. This was below the national average. In comparison, Regional Vic.'s median income was $50,954 with an average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $54,537 (median) and $68,700 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Moyne - West's household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly between the 37th and 40th percentiles. The data showed that 34.1% of individuals in Moyne - West earned between $1,500 and $2,999, consistent with broader regional trends where 30.3% fell into the same category. Housing costs were manageable with 89.0% retained, but disposable income was below average at the 42nd percentile, placing Moyne - West in the 5th decile for SEIFA income ranking.

Moyne - West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Moyne-West, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 95.3% houses and 4.7% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings, compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. The level of home ownership in Moyne-West was 48.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (34.9%) or rented (16.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,517, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $280, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Moyne-West's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Moyne - West has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 73.0% of all households, including 29.1% couples with children, 34.3% couples without children, and 8.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 27.0%, with lone person households at 25.1% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional Vic. average.

Educational attainment in Moyne - West aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Moyne-West Trail residents aged 15+ have 24.3% university degrees, compared to Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 16.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are held by 38.4%, with advanced diplomas at 11.6% and certificates at 26.8%. Current educational participation is high, with 28.7% enrolled in formal education: primary (10.9%), secondary (9.4%), tertiary (2.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Moyne - West has 47 operational public transport stops. These are served by four distinct routes offering a total of 134 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents on average located 596 meters from the nearest stop. The area is predominantly residential, with outward commuting being the norm. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 90%, while walking accounts for 6%. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 19.2% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 19 trips per day, resulting in approximately two weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Moyne - West is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Moyne-West demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts show low prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 50% of the total population (~5,171 people) have private health cover, which is relatively low compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (8.7%) and asthma (8.3%), with 67.4% of residents reporting no medical ailments, higher than the Regional Vic. average of 63.4%. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 25.7% of residents aged 65 and over (2,635 people), higher than the Regional Vic. average of 23.9%. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Moyne - West placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Moyne-West had a cultural diversity index below average, with 90.8% citizens, 91.6% born in Australia, and 97.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 54.0%. This compares to 47.3% across Regional Vic.

The top three ancestry groups were English (30.5%), Australian (30.3%), and Irish (16.3%), significantly higher than regional averages of 29.8%, 29.5%, and 9.7%. Notably, Scottish was overrepresented at 9.8% compared to the regional average of 8.8%, Dutch at 1.4% versus 1.7%, and German at 3.5%.

Moyne - West hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Moyne-West has a median age of 46, which is slightly higher than Regional Vic.'s figure of 43 and significantly greater than the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group constitutes 14.7% of Moyne-West's population, compared to Regional Vic., while the 25-34 cohort makes up 9.8%. This concentration in the 65-74 age group is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.8% to 8.6%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 9.7% to 10.9%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 11.3%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 14.8% to 13.2%. By 2041, Moyne-West is projected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. The 85+ group is expected to grow by 22%, reaching 302 people from the current 248. This growth will be driven entirely by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising all of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 75 to 84 and 0 to 4 age cohorts.