Moyne - West

An assessment of population growth drivers in Moyne - West reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Moyne - West's population is around 10,646 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 632 people (6.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,014 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,215 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 127 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 5.2 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Moyne - West's 6.3% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (4.5%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 48.1% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and interstate migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to contract by 2,884 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to grow by 39 people. See the age section for more details.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Moyne - West when compared nationally

Moyne - West has averaged around 51 new dwelling approvals each year, with 258 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 23 so far in FY-26. With an average of 1.4 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $415,000, demonstrating a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. There have also been $23.3 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating steady commercial investment activity.

When measured against the Rest of Vic., Moyne - West has 19.0% less new development (per person) while it places among the 58th percentile of areas assessed nationally. Recent construction comprises 97.0% detached dwellings and 3.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 262 people per dwelling approval, Moyne - West shows characteristics of a low density area.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, Moyne - West may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Moyne - West has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 23rdth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 26 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Port Fairy Play and Skate, Port Fairy East Beach Landfill Coastal Adaptation Plan, Rivers Run Estate, and Ryan Corner Wind Farm, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Moyne - West ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Moyne - West has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of just 1.5%. As of December 2025, 5,071 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 2.2% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is on par with Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. Based on Census responses, a moderate 19.2% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and construction. The area shows particularly strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 2.3 times the regional level. Conversely, education & training shows lower representation at 7.7% versus the regional average of 9.1%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 6.4% alongside a 6.8% employment decline, causing unemployment to rise by 0.4 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6%, a labour force decline of 0.7%, and unemployment falling 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Moyne - West. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Moyne - West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.6% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Moyne - West SA2's median income among taxpayers is $49,751, with an average of $62,671. This is lower than average on a national basis, and compares to Regional Vic.'s median of $50,954 and average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $53,855 (median) and $67,841 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Moyne - West, between the 37th and 40th percentiles. The earnings profile shows the largest segment comprises 34.1% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (3,630 residents), aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 30.3%. Housing costs are manageable with 89.0% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 42nd percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Moyne - West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Moyne - West, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 95.3% houses and 4.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Moyne - West was well beyond that of Regional Vic., at 48.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (34.9%) or rented (16.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Regional Vic. average at $1,517, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $280, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Moyne - West's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Moyne - West has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 73.0% of all households, comprising 29.1% couples with children, 34.3% couples without children, and 8.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.0%, with lone person households at 25.1% and group households comprising 1.8% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people matches the Regional Vic. average.

Educational attainment in Moyne - West aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Moyne - West trail regional benchmarks, with 24.3% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 33.4% in VIC. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 16.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 38.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (26.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.7% of residents aged 15+ currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 47 active transport stops operating within Moyne - West. These stops are serviced by 4 individual routes, collectively providing 134 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 596 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 90%, with 6% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 19.2% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 19 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Moyne - West is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Moyne - West demonstrates above-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts show a low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~5,365 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 8.7% and 8.3% of residents, respectively, while 67.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic.. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 25.0% of residents aged 65 and over (2,660 people), which is higher than the 23.9% in Regional Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The latest Census data sees Moyne - West placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Moyne - West was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 90.8% of its population being citizens, 91.6% born in Australia, and 97.8% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Moyne - West is Christianity, which makes up 54.0% of people in Moyne - West, compared to 47.3% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Moyne - West are English, comprising 30.5% of the population, Australian, comprising 30.3% of the population, and Irish, comprising 16.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 9.7%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Scottish is notably overrepresented at 9.8% of Moyne - West (vs 8.8% regionally), Dutch at 1.4% (vs 1.7%) and German at 3.5% (vs 3.5%).

Moyne - West hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Moyne - West's median age of 45 years modestly exceeds Regional Vic.'s 43 and is considerably older than the national norm of 38. Compared to the Regional Vic. average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented (14.6% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (10.4%). This 65 - 74 concentration is well above the national 9.5%. In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.8% to 8.2% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 9.2% to 10.4%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 14.8% to 12.9% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 13.0% to 11.1%. Demographic modeling suggests Moyne - West's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 85+ age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, expanding by 42 people (18%) from 239 to 282. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 100% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 75 to 84 and 0 to 4 cohorts.