Warrnambool

Population growth drivers in Warrnambool are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Warrnambool's population, as estimated based on ABS updates and AreaSearch validation, is approximately 32,602 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 1,294 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 31,308. The growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 31,366 in June 2024 and 952 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 497 persons per square kilometer. Warrnambool's growth rate of 4.1% since the 2021 census exceeds that of its SA4 region at 3.4%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projected demographic shifts indicate a significant population increase in the top quartile of national non-metropolitan areas. Warrnambool is expected to grow by 9,606 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 27.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Warrnambool among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Warrnambool averaged around 206 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 1,031 homes were approved, with another 70 approved so far in FY-26. On average, each dwelling constructed over the past five financial years has attracted 0.9 new residents per year.

This suggests that new construction is matching or outpacing demand, providing more options for buyers and enabling population growth. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $467,000. In FY-26, commercial development approvals have totaled $86.7 million, indicating robust local business investment.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Warrnambool has similar development levels per person, maintaining market equilibrium with surrounding areas. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. Most new building activity comprises standalone homes (92.0%), with townhouses or apartments making up the remaining 8.0%, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 200 people per dwelling approval, Warrnambool exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. By 2041, Warrnambool is projected to grow by 8,979 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Warrnambool has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 38thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects that could impact this area. Notable projects include Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, AquaZone Redevelopment, Former Saleyards Site Precinct Plan, and Wollaston Way Estate. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warrnambool demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Warrnambool has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 1.7%.

This rate is 2.1% lower than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation stands at 60.1%, slightly higher than the Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Health care & social assistance has particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 2.7% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The area offers limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, labour force decreased by 1.9% and employment decreased by 1.5%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.4 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of Vic. recorded employment decline of 0.9%, labour force decline of 0.4%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warrnambool's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Warrnambool's median income among taxpayers is $49,327. The average income in Warrnambool during this period was $59,976. Nationally, the median income was higher at $51,089 and the average was $62,396. In Rest of Vic., the median income was $48,741 and the average was $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Warrnambool's median income would be approximately $55,325 as of September 2025. The estimated average income in Warrnambool by September 2025 is $67,269. Census 2021 income data shows household incomes in Warrnambool rank at the 34th percentile nationally. Family incomes rank at the 38th percentile and personal incomes rank at the 27th percentile. The income bracket of $1,500 - $2,999 dominated Warrnambool with 30.3% of residents (9,878 people). This is consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region where 30.3% of residents fall into this category. After housing costs, 86.3% of income remains in Warrnambool. Nationally, this ranks at the 30th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Warrnambool is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Warrnambool, as per the latest Census, 82.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 17.8% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments and other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro Vic., where 87.6% were houses and 12.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warrnambool stood at 38.2%, with mortgaged properties making up 31.2% and rented dwellings 30.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,408, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Warrnambool was $290, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $283. Nationally, Warrnambool's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warrnambool features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 65.1% of all households, including 24.8% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 34.9%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Warrnambool aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 23.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them. This includes advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (25.1%).

Educational participation is high at 27.6%, comprising 9.5% in primary, 7.9% in secondary, and 3.1% in tertiary education. Fourteen schools serve 6,251 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1003) and balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes seven primary, five secondary, and two K-12 schools. School capacity exceeds residential needs at 19.2 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.6, indicating it serves as an educational center for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Warrnambool shows 166 active transport stops operating. These include a mix of train and bus services. The city has 36 individual routes providing 3,005 weekly passenger trips collectively.

Transport accessibility is rated good with residents typically located 257 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 429 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warrnambool is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warrnambool faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~16,493 people). The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 9.3 and 8.9% of residents respectively. 64.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 65.9% across Rest of Vic.. As of the latest data (June 2017), 22.0% of Warrnambool's residents are aged 65 and over, totaling 7,172 people.

Warrnambool is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warrnambool's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.0% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (89.3%), and speaking English only at home (93.9%). Christianity is the predominant religion in Warrnambool, accounting for 51.5% of its population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented compared to the rest of Victoria, with 0.1% of Warrnambool's population identifying as Jewish.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (30.8%), Australian (29.0%), and Irish (14.2%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Scottish is slightly overrepresented at 9.5%, Dutch at 1.4%, and Sri Lankan at 0.2%.

Warrnambool hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Warrnambool's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that 25-34 year-olds make up 14.2%, with the 65-74 group at 11.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 25 to 34 age group grew from 12.9% to 14.2%, while the 5 to 14 cohort declined from 11.9% to 10.7%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Warrnambool. The 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow by 47%, adding 2,154 residents to reach 6,784. Conversely, the 15 to 24 age range is expected to fall by 26%.