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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Warrnambool has an estimated 32,377 residents, up from 31,308 at the 2021 Census — a change of 1,069 people, or 3.4%. Growth has averaged 0.5% a year over five years. 1,292 new addresses have been validated here since Census night. That puts 494 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
As of Aug 2026, the suburb of Warrnambool has an estimated resident count of around 32,377, according to AreaSearch evaluations combining broader ABS population updates with 1,292 validated new addresses recorded since the Census. This represents an expansion of 1,069 people (3.4%) above the 31,308 people recorded at the 2021 Census, building on an intermediate ERP figure of 32,075 derived from ABS data released in June 2025. Across the area, this population density stands at 494 persons per square kilometer, leaving substantial space per person alongside capacity for future development.
Outperforming both the SA4 region (0.5%) and the wider SA3 area, the 3.4% population gain in the suburb of Warrnambool established it as a regional growth frontrunner, with overseas migration serving as the principal catalyst by generating roughly 89.0% of recent population gains. Long-term demographic modeling for the suburb of Warrnambool incorporates 2024 ABS/Geoscience Australia projections pegged to a 2022 base year, supplemented where necessary by 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA releases adjusted via weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 geographies. In addition, age-specific growth trajectories from these models are applied across all districts for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2 projections, the suburb of Warrnambool is positioned in the upper quartile of regional Australian locations for expansion, forecast to add 9,232 persons by 2041, which equates to an overall growth rate of 27.6% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
1,073 new dwellings have been approved in Warrnambool over the past five years, an average of 214 a year. That places the area in the 75th percentile for residential development activity nationally, about 7 approvals per 1,000 residents a year. Of the 210 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 89% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 346, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Residential building activity in Warrnambool has generated an average of approximately 214 approved dwellings each year, amounting to 1,073 homes across the past 5 financial years according to ABS figures analyzed by AreaSearch. In FY-25 to date, 346 approvals have already been registered. Between FY-21 and FY-25 over the past 5 financial years, an influx averaging only 0.7 people per year for every completed dwelling indicates that local construction is matching or outpacing inbound migration, providing broad market selection, room for growth beyond current projections, and an average expected construction cost of $442,000 per dwelling.
Non-residential development is also robust, evidenced by $50.6 million in commercial development approvals recorded this financial year. Per capita residential construction in Warrnambool tracks closely with Rest of Vic., preserving structural balance across the local property market. Low-density residential planning remains central to the area's appeal to space-focused purchasers, with detached houses comprising 89.0% of recent building approvals alongside 11.0% medium and high-density housing. Demonstrating this low-density character, the market records roughly 121 people per approval. According to the latest quarterly projections from AreaSearch, Warrnambool is anticipated to increase by 8,930 residents up to 2041. If residential construction continues at its current rate, housing additions could fall short of demographic growth, creating heightened competition among buyers and bolstering property valuations.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Warrnambool
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 13 current infrastructure and development projects inside Warrnambool, worth an estimated $1.43 billion. A further 39 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $5.65 billion. 16 are already under construction and 24 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, energy and communities, precincts & urban renewal. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Community growth and performance remain heavily shaped by infrastructure investment, key urban works, and local planning decisions. AreaSearch has outlined 18 projects expected to influence the district, highlighted by developments such as the Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, AquaZone Redevelopment, Former Saleyards Site Precinct Plan, and Wollaston Way Estate, with relevant priorities itemized below.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Warrnambool Base Hospital Redevelopment
A major $384.2 million redevelopment of the South West Healthcare Warrnambool Base Hospital campus being delivered by the Victorian Health Building Authority. The project includes a multi-storey Clinical Services Building featuring an expanded emergency department, additional inpatient beds, operating theatres, a dedicated paediatric unit, and modern medical imaging. Major construction commenced in 2024 and is targeted for practical completion in 2027.
Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development
A major mixed-use development featuring over 6,500 sqm of office floor space, 905 sqm of retail space, 56 residential apartments, and 84 serviced apartments with a hotel committed to Punthill. The $110M project has town planning approval, though the 4,400sqm site has also been listed for sale.
AquaZone Redevelopment
Redevelopment of Warrnambool's AquaZone Aquatic and Leisure Centre on its existing site. Council endorsed the business case in early 2026 for advocacy and funding, with a recommended two-stage redevelopment. Stage 1 includes a new 50 metre pool, plant, spectator seating, entry, foyer, cafe, dry fitness areas and upgraded change facilities. Stage 2 includes a warm water pool, spa, sauna and additional program rooms to support rehabilitation, health, wellbeing and expanded community programming.
Warrnambool Sewage Treatment Plant Upgrade
Wannon Water's $85 million upgrade of the Warrnambool Sewage Treatment Plant is the utility's largest ever infrastructure investment. The project includes two new treatment tanks, a new inlet pump station and screening facility, chemical dosing and odour control systems, tertiary effluent screening and ultra-violet disinfection infrastructure. Construction is substantially complete with commissioning underway through 2026. The expanded facility will increase treatment capacity by around 50 percent to support long-term population and industrial growth across Warrnambool, Allansford and Koroit while improving environmental protection and public health outcomes.
Wollaston Way Estate
Wollaston Way Estate is a residential development in North Warrnambool, offering vacant land lots in a peaceful, family-friendly community. The estate features modern housing options, integrated landscape design, and proximity to schools, shops, and recreational areas along the Merri River. Across 14 stages, 258 families have settled, with Stage 15 coming soon and registrations of interest now open.
Riverland Estate
A masterplanned waterfront residential community on the banks of the Merri River in Warrnambool, offering premium lots with features including a fishing platform, playground, picnic areas, cycling tracks, walking paths, re-vegetated landscaping, fish hotels, and flood protection measures. Designed for families with a focus on sustainability and lifestyle.
Merri Views Estate Dennington
Merri Views Estate is a masterplanned residential estate in Dennington on the north western edge of Warrnambool. The development comprises approximately 195 residential lots across multiple stages. Stages 1 to 5 and 9 to 12 have sold, while Stage 13 and remaining lots continue to be released and constructed. The estate is within walking distance of St John's Primary School, shopping, sporting facilities and local services.
Former Saleyards Site Precinct Plan
Master plan for the former saleyards site featuring predominantly residential development, a small convenience centre on the corner of Coghlans and Caramut roads, commercial uses along Caramut Road frontage, and potential recreation facility expansion for the adjacent stadium. The site requires environmental audit and some remediation works. Council allocated funds for structural planning to prepare for rezoning.
15,753 residents of Warrnambool are employed, from a labour force of 16,036. Unemployment sits at 1.8%, with participation at 59.7%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.4% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 28,133, about 87% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Warrnambool maintains a low unemployment rate of 1.8% and a capable workforce with strong representation across essential services, based on statistical area aggregations by AreaSearch. As of March 2026, employed residents numbered 15,753, with local joblessness tracking 1.9% under the 3.7% recorded across Regional Vic., while participation is closely aligned with the regional benchmark of 61.1%. Working from home was registered by 10.5% of residents at the Census, though pandemic conditions at the time may have influenced this figure. The primary employment sectors for local workers are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training.
Specialization is particularly elevated in health care & social assistance, capturing an employment concentration 1.2 times that of the regional market. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing accounts for only 2.7% of resident employment, compared with 7.5% regionally. Comparing Census resident workers against the local daytime workforce indicates constrained employment options within the immediate boundary. Over the 12 months to March 2026, ABS and SALM figures show Warrnambool experienced a 6.2% reduction in its labour force alongside a 6.0% decrease in employed persons, causing the unemployment rate to drop by 0.3 percentage points. Across Regional Vic. during the same timeframe, the workforce contracted by 0.3%, employment dropped by 0.1%, and unemployment declined 0.2 percentage points. Forward-looking national projections from Jobs and Skills Australia as of Mar-26 outline nationwide employment growth of 6.6% across five years and 13.7% across ten years, with distinct variances by sector. Applying these sectoral trajectories to Warrnambool's current industry composition indicates potential local employment gains of 6.4% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, representing an illustrative industry-weighted extrapolation that excludes local demographic projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Warrnambool is $1,385 a week (about $72,000 a year), with median personal income at $749 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $49,326 a year against an average of $59,973. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
ATO postcode data compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023 indicates that earnings in the suburb of Warrnambool track below nationwide benchmarks, showing a median income of $49,326 and an average income of $59,973. These figures sit below the Regional Vic. medians of $50,954 and averages of $62,728. Accounting for a 9.62% increase in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023, modeled figures reach approximately $54,071 for median earnings and $65,742 for average earnings as of March 2026. Across personal, family, and household levels, Census earnings place between the 27th and 38th percentiles.
In terms of earnings brackets, 30.3% of local workers (9,810 individuals) earn between $1,500 - 2,999, matching the wider regional proportion of 30.3%. Disposable funds after housing costs stand at 86.3% of income, ranking at the 30th percentile nationwide, while the SEIFA income measure assigns the area to the 4th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Warrnambool had 12,565 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 82% detached houses and 5% apartments. 31% are owned with a mortgage, 31% rented and 38% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $290 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,408 a month. Rent absorbs 20.9% of household income here and mortgage repayments 23.5%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
Census records indicate that freestanding houses account for 82.2% of residential dwellings in Warrnambool, while medium-to-higher density and alternative accommodations comprise 17.8%, compared to 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings across Regional Vic.. Outright homeownership was registered at 38.2%, slightly below the regional benchmark, with 31.2% of homes mortgaged and 30.6% occupied by tenants. Typical housing costs are lower than regional norms, with median monthly mortgage payments at $1,408 against $1,430 in Regional Vic., and median weekly rent at $290 versus $285 regionally. Relative to national figures, local mortgage costs sit well beneath the Australian benchmark of $1,863, and rents remain substantially under the national level of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Warrnambool counted 12,565 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.3 people each. 25% are couples with children, against 28% couples without children. 32% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.8 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families constitute the vast majority of local living arrangements, making up 65.1% of households, divided into couples without children at 27.6%, couples with children at 24.8%, and single parent families at 11.5%. Non-family domestic setups account for the remaining 34.9%, consisting of single-person households at 31.5% and group living arrangements at 3.3%. The typical household size is 2.3 people, tracking slightly below the Regional Vic. median of 2.4.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
23.3% of adults in Warrnambool hold a university qualification, including 15.8% with a bachelor degree and 4.1% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 25.1% hold a vocational qualification. 14 schools serve the area, with 6,251 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,003 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Higher educational attainment presents an opportunity for local development, with tertiary degree holding at 23.3%, below the wider VIC benchmark of 33.4%. Among university credentials, bachelor degrees account for 15.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.1% and graduate diplomas at 3.4%. Meanwhile, technical and vocational qualifications are well established across the population aged 15+, with 35.9% holding vocational credentials, including 25.1% with certificates and 10.8% with advanced diplomas. Formal study engagement is substantial throughout the community, with 27.6% of residents actively undertaking education. Within this cohort, 9.5% attend primary school, 7.9% are in secondary schooling, and 3.1% are pursuing tertiary studies.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Warrnambool reaches 166 stops on 16 routes, timetabled for about 1,400 services a week. The typical home sits about 260 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.3 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport connectivity in Warrnambool comprises 166 active stops that include train services, operated across 16 separate routes that deliver 1,447 passenger trips weekly. Accessibility is favorable, with local residents located an average distance of 258 meters from the nearest stop. Commuters primarily travel outward, with private vehicles accounting for 92% of journeys and walking representing 5%. Vehicle availability stands at 1.3 cars per dwelling, lower than the regional norm, while 10.5% of workers worked from home according to the 2021 Census, a metric potentially shaped by pandemic conditions. Network schedules average 206 services per day across all active routes, which translates to approximately 8 trips per week for each individual transit stop.
The accompanying mapping illustrates the 100 closest transit stops relative to the centrepoint of the location.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
64.2% of residents in Warrnambool report no long-term health condition. 7.0% need daily assistance with core activities, and 50.6% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.8 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Evaluation of mortality and chronic condition data by AreaSearch highlights notable health challenges in Warrnambool across younger and older demographics alike, accompanied by a private health insurance rate of approximately 51% of the population (~16,379 people), which trails the national figure of 55.7%. Mental health conditions and arthritis represent the primary chronic ailments diagnosed locally, affecting 9.3% and 8.9% of the population respectively, while 64.2% of residents reported having no medical conditions, slightly higher than the 63.4% figure for Regional Vic.. Chronic illness remains elevated among working-age cohorts. Seniors aged 65 and over comprise 22.9% of the local population (7,414 people), below the 24.0% regional proportion, with overall health metrics aligning broadly with national distributions.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Warrnambool is largely Australian-born, at 89.3% of residents, with 6.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (30.8%) and Australian (29.0%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural homogeneity is pronounced across Warrnambool, where Australian citizens make up 89.0% of the population, 89.3% were born domestically, and 93.9% speak solely English in the home. Faith affiliations are led by Christianity, practiced by 51.5% of residents. The most noticeable relative overrepresentation occurs in Judaism, which accounts for 0.1% locally, matching the 0.1% level observed throughout Regional Vic.. Ancestral backgrounds based on parental birthplaces are led by English ancestry at 30.8%, Australian at 29.0%, and Irish at 14.2%. Other distinct representations include Scottish ancestry at 9.5% compared to 8.8% regionally, Dutch heritage at 1.4% versus 1.7%, and Sri Lankan heritage at 0.2% compared with 0.1% across the broader region.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Warrnambool is 42. 24.8% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The age distribution in Warrnambool tracks closely with regional averages, showing a maximum variance of 1.8 percentage points from Regional Vic. benchmarks. The median age remains at an estimated 42, mirroring the 2021 Census figure and sitting 1 year below the Regional Vic. median of 43 from that same Census. Since then, the proportion of residents aged 45 - 64 has reduced from 25.4% to an estimated 24.0%. The most substantial demographic expansion through to 2041 is projected among the 25 - 44 age cohort, which is expected to grow by 3,168 residents (39%) to reach 11,230.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Warrnambool
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Oct 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Oct 2026 this month headline measures · Sep 2026 baseline |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Oct 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Sep 2026 last month all 13 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Sep 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 1,292 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (31,308 at the 2021 Census → 32,377 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL22710). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.