Warrnambool

Population growth drivers in Warrnambool are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Warrnambool is around 32,205. This figure reflects an increase of 897 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 31,308. The latest estimate of 32,060 residents was derived from AreaSearch's examination of the June 2025 ABS ERP data release and validation of 1,143 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 491 persons per square kilometer. Warrnambool's population growth rate of 2.9% between the 2021 Census and May 2026 exceeded both the SA4 region (0.4%) and the SA3 area, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch's projections for Warrnambool are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted using weighted aggregation methods for areas not covered by the former data. Projected demographic shifts suggest significant population growth in the top quartile of national non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, Warrnambool's population is forecast to increase by 9,288 persons, reflecting a total increase of 28.4% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Warrnambool among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Warrnambool has averaged approximately 212 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 1,060 homes were approved, with an additional 226 approved in FY-26 to date. On average, each new dwelling constructed over the past five financial years accommodates about 0.6 new residents per year.

This suggests that new construction is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially driving population growth beyond current projections. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings in Warrnambool is approximately $465,000, indicating a focus on the premium market. In FY-26 alone, there have been $50.6 million worth of commercial approvals, reflecting high levels of local commercial activity.

When compared to the rest of Victoria, Warrnambool maintains similar development levels per capita, preserving market equilibrium with surrounding areas. Recent construction comprises 92% detached dwellings and 8% attached dwellings, upholding the area's traditional low-density character and appealing to those seeking family homes with space. The location has approximately 177 people per dwelling approval, further emphasizing its low-density market status. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Warrnambool is projected to gain around 9,143 residents by 2041. If current development rates persist, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth in the future.

Warrnambool has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, AquaZone Redevelopment, Former Saleyards Site Precinct Plan, and Wollaston Way Estate, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Warrnambool shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Warrnambool has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.1% as of December 2025, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. In this month, 15,844 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.6 percentage points lower than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation in Warrnambool was broadly similar to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. Census responses indicated that a low 10.5% of residents worked from home, but Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The dominant employment sectors among residents were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Health care & social assistance had notably high concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing employed just 2.7% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. The area appeared to offer limited employment opportunities locally as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 6.4%, while employment also decreased by 6.4%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. This contrasted with Regional Vic., where employment contracted by 0.6%, the labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offered further insight into potential future demand within Warrnambool. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, were mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. National employment was forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Warrnambool's employment mix suggested that local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, noting this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not take into account localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The latest postcode level ATO data from AreaSearch for the financial year ending June 2023 indicates that Warrnambool's median income among taxpayers is $49,326, with an average of $59,973. This is lower than the national average. In comparison, Regional Victoria has a median income of $50,954 and an average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year ending June 2023, current estimates for Warrnambool would be approximately $54,071 (median) and $65,742 (average) as of March 2026. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Warrnambool rank modestly, between the 27th and 38th percentiles. The data shows that the majority of residents, 30.3% (9,758 people), fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region. After housing costs, 86.3% of income remains, which ranks at the 30th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Warrnambool is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Warrnambool, as per the latest Census, 82.2% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 17.8% being semi-detached homes, apartments or other types. This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warrnambool stood at 38.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.2% and rented ones at 30.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,408, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Warrnambool was $290, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Warrnambool's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,408 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warrnambool features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 65.1% of all households, including 24.8% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 34.9%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households making up 3.3%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Warrnambool aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 23.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (25.1%). Educational participation is high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.5% in primary, 7.9% in secondary, and 3.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warrnambool has 166 active public transport stops offering a mix of train services. These are covered by 16 routes, serving 1,609 weekly passenger trips in total. The average distance to the nearest stop for residents is 258 meters, indicating good accessibility. In this predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 92%, with walking accounting for 5%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 10.5% of residents work from home, a figure possibly influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 229 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 9 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this data, displaying the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Warrnambool is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warrnambool faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high among younger and older age cohorts alike, with common health conditions prevalent across both groups.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~16,292 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues impact 9.3% of residents, while arthritis affects 8.9%. 64.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. As of 2019, the area has 22.5% of residents aged 65 and over (7,246 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic.. National rankings are broadly in line with the general population.

Warrnambool is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warrnambool had a lower cultural diversity compared to the average, with 89.0% of its population being citizens, 89.3% born in Australia, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Warrnambool, making up 51.5% of its population. Judaism, however, was overrepresented, comprising 0.1% compared to the regional average of 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (30.8%), Australian (29.0%), and Irish (14.2%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Scottish was overrepresented at 9.5%, Dutch at 1.4%, and Sri Lankan at 0.2% compared to regional averages of 8.8%, 1.7%, and 0.1% respectively.

Warrnambool's median age exceeds the national pattern

Warrnambool's median age is 42 years, similar to Regional Vic.'s average of 43 and considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are particularly prominent at 13.8%, while the 65-74 group is comparatively smaller at 11.4% than in Regional Vic. In the period from 2021 to present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.0% to 8.0% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 11.9% to 10.7%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Warrnambool. The 25 to 34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 43%, adding 1,902 residents to reach 6,347. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 cohort grows by a modest 1% (22 people).