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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Warrnambool has an estimated 32,205 residents, up from 31,308 at the 2021 Census — a change of 897 people, or 2.9%. Growth has averaged 0.5% a year over five years. 1,143 new addresses have been validated here since Census night. That puts 492 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
Based on demographic assessments from the ABS and new address registers verified by AreaSearch after the Census, the suburb of Warrnambool has an estimated residency count of approximately 32,205 by May 2026. This represents a gain of 897 residents (2.9%) compared to the 2021 Census, which registered 31,308 citizens. This shift is derived from the resident population of 32,060, calculated by AreaSearch using the June 2025 ERP release from the ABS alongside 1,143 validated new addresses since the Census. Such population levels translate to a density of 491 residents per square kilometer, which indicates substantial space per individual and opportunities for future expansion.
The suburb of Warrnambool outpaced both the SA3 district and the broader SA4 region (0.4%) with its 2.9% expansion rate since the 2021 census, establishing itself as a regional growth leader. The demographic increase was largely fueled by international arrivals, which accounted for approximately 89.0% of the overall population gains lately. AreaSearch incorporates regional demographic projections for SA2 areas published by the ABS and Geoscience Australia in 2024, utilizing 2022 as the baseline. For any SA2 regions where this data is unavailable, state government LGA projections from 2023 are applied by aggregating population growth weights from the LGA to the SA2 level. Growth dynamics by age category from these calculations are extended across all locations for the period spanning 2032 to 2041. Based on these projected shifts, a notable surge in population is anticipated, placing the locality in the top bracket of national non-metropolitan zones, with the suburb of Warrnambool forecast to add 9,288 residents by 2041, representing a total increase of 28.4% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
1,108 new dwellings have been approved in Warrnambool over the past five years, an average of 221 a year. That places the area in the 72nd percentile for residential development activity nationally, about 7 approvals per 1,000 residents a year. Of the 186 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 90% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 342, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
According to analysis of ABS building permit statistics allocated from statistical areas, Warrnambool averages approximately 221 approved residential dwellings annually, representing an estimated 1,108 properties over the last 5 financial years. In the current FY-26 period, approvals stand at 314. With an average of only 0.7 new residents per completed dwelling over the past 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25), the volume of new housing is matching or outstripping demand, providing buyers with diverse options and establishing capacity for growth beyond current projections, while new properties average a construction cost of $466,000, pointing to developer activity in the upper-tier market.
Additionally, commercial development approvals reached $50.6 million this financial year, indicating solid local corporate investment. Compared with the Rest of Vic. region, property development in Warrnambool is slightly elevated, running 10.0% above the regional average per capita over the 5 year timeframe, which helps sustain property values while giving buyers sufficient options. Recent building activity consists of 90.0% standalone houses and 10.0% semi-detached or multi-unit dwellings, preserving the traditional low density layout of the area with a focus on family properties. The local market averages about 161 residents for every residential approval, pointing to a low density housing environment. Demographic projections indicate Warrnambool's population will expand by 9,143 residents by 2041, according to the latest quarterly calculations. If current building rates persist, residential supply might fall short of population growth, which could increase competition among prospective buyers and drive stronger price gains.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Warrnambool
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 13 current infrastructure and development projects inside Warrnambool, worth an estimated $1.03 billion. A further 39 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $5.24 billion. 18 are already under construction and 22 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, energy and communities, precincts & urban renewal. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure upgrades, commercial developments, and planning schemes have a significant impact on local growth. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects that are expected to influence the local area. Principal projects include the Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, AquaZone Redevelopment, Former Saleyards Site Precinct Plan, and Wollaston Way Estate, with the list below highlighting the most significant developments.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development
A major mixed-use development featuring over 6,500 sqm of office floor space, 905 sqm of retail space, 56 residential apartments, and 84 serviced apartments with a hotel committed to Punthill. The $110M project has town planning approval, though the 4,400sqm site has also been listed for sale.
AquaZone Redevelopment
Redevelopment of Warrnambool's AquaZone Aquatic and Leisure Centre on its existing site. Council endorsed the business case in early 2026 for advocacy and funding, with a recommended two-stage redevelopment. Stage 1 includes a new 50 metre pool, plant, spectator seating, entry, foyer, cafe, dry fitness areas and upgraded change facilities. Stage 2 includes a warm water pool, spa, sauna and additional program rooms to support rehabilitation, health, wellbeing and expanded community programming.
Warrnambool Sewage Treatment Plant Upgrade
Wannon Water's $85 million upgrade of the Warrnambool Sewage Treatment Plant is the utility's largest ever infrastructure investment. The project includes two new treatment tanks, a new inlet pump station and screening facility, chemical dosing and odour control systems, tertiary effluent screening and ultra-violet disinfection infrastructure. Construction is substantially complete with commissioning underway through 2026. The expanded facility will increase treatment capacity by around 50 percent to support long-term population and industrial growth across Warrnambool, Allansford and Koroit while improving environmental protection and public health outcomes.
Wollaston Way Estate
Wollaston Way Estate is a residential development in North Warrnambool, offering vacant land lots in a peaceful, family-friendly community. The estate features modern housing options, integrated landscape design, and proximity to schools, shops, and recreational areas along the Merri River. Across 14 stages, 258 families have settled, with Stage 15 coming soon and registrations of interest now open.
Riverland Estate
A masterplanned waterfront residential community on the banks of the Merri River in Warrnambool, offering premium lots with features including a fishing platform, playground, picnic areas, cycling tracks, walking paths, re-vegetated landscaping, fish hotels, and flood protection measures. Designed for families with a focus on sustainability and lifestyle.
Merri Views Estate Dennington
Merri Views Estate is a masterplanned residential estate in Dennington on the north western edge of Warrnambool. The development comprises approximately 195 residential lots across multiple stages. Stages 1 to 5 and 9 to 12 have sold, while Stage 13 and remaining lots continue to be released and constructed. The estate is within walking distance of St John's Primary School, shopping, sporting facilities and local services.
Former Saleyards Site Precinct Plan
Master plan for the former saleyards site featuring predominantly residential development, a small convenience centre on the corner of Coghlans and Caramut roads, commercial uses along Caramut Road frontage, and potential recreation facility expansion for the adjacent stadium. The site requires environmental audit and some remediation works. Council allocated funds for structural planning to prepare for rezoning.
Wollaston Road Upgrade
Major staged upgrade of Wollaston Road delivering new roundabouts, wider carriageway, footpaths, bicycle lanes, landscaped median, lighting, drainage, parking lanes and bus stop provisions to support growth in North Warrnambool. Construction is progressing in stages, with the Caramut Road to Roaches Road section completed, further sections under construction and later stages scheduled to commence as surrounding development progresses.
15,740 residents of Warrnambool are employed, from a labour force of 16,023. Unemployment sits at 1.8%, with participation at 59.5%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.4% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 27,947, about 87% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Warrnambool has a skilled workforce with strong representation in key service sectors, alongside an unemployment rate of only 1.8%, based on aggregated statistical area statistics. By March 2026, there are 15,740 residents in employment, and the unemployment rate is 1.9% lower than the 3.7% recorded across Regional Vic., with labour force participation running close to the Regional Vic. average of 61.1%. According to Census data, a modest 10.5% of the working population performed their duties from home, though this figure may reflect the influence of COVID-19 restrictions. The major employment industries for local residents are healthcare & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training.
The area exhibits a high concentration in healthcare & social assistance, with staffing levels at 1.2 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing accounts for only 2.7% of the local workforce, which is lower than the Regional Vic. average of 7.5%. The relationship between the Census working population count and the resident population suggests a limited supply of local job opportunities. Analysis of SALM and ABS statistics across broader statistical areas indicates that during the 12 months ending March 2026, the local labour force contracted by 6.3% while employment fell by 6.0%, leading to a 0.3 percentage point reduction in the unemployment rate. This compares to Regional Vic. where employment declined by 0.1%, the workforce shrank by 0.3%, and unemployment fell by 0.2 percentage points. National employment projections released in May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia provide further context regarding future labour demands in Warrnambool. These five and ten-year forecasts have been aligned with the local industry profile to project local growth trends. While national employment is expected to rise by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary by industry. Applying these national sector trends to the local employment mix suggests Warrnambool's workforce could expand by 6.4% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a basic weighted extrapolation and does not incorporate local population forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Warrnambool is $1,385 a week (about $72,000 a year), with median personal income at $749 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $49,326 a year against an average of $59,973. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
According to AreaSearch's most recent postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023, Warrnambool's median income for taxpayers stands at $49,326 while the average reaches $59,973. These figures fall below the national average and contrast with Regional Vic.'s median of $50,954 and average of $62,728. Applying a Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023 projects current estimates to around $54,071 for the median and $65,742 for the average by March 2026. Income metrics from Census 2021 indicate that household, family and personal incomes in Warrnambool sit modestly, ranging from the 27th to the 38th percentiles.
The $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket accounts for 30.3% of residents, representing 9,758 people, which mirrors regional patterns where 30.3% of residents fall into this same category. Once housing costs are deducted, 86.3% of income remains, yet this position corresponds to only the 30th percentile on a national scale and the area's SEIFA income ranking sits within the 4th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Warrnambool had 12,565 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 82% detached houses and 5% apartments. 31% are owned with a mortgage, 31% rented and 38% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $290 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,408 a month. Rent absorbs 20.9% of household income here and mortgage repayments 23.5%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the last Census, the housing mix in Warrnambool consisted of 82.2% standalone houses and 17.8% other housing types, such as apartments and townhouses, compared to Regional Vic. where standalone houses made up 90.1% and other options made up 9.9%. Home ownership rates in Warrnambool were slightly below the Regional Vic. average at 38.2%, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (31.2%) or rented (30.6%). The median monthly mortgage payment was $1,408, which is lower than the Regional Vic. average of $1,430, while median weekly rent was $290, compared to $285 in Regional Vic.
On a national level, monthly mortgage payments are much lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are well below the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Warrnambool counted 12,565 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.3 people each. 25% are couples with children, against 28% couples without children. 32% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.8 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family households make up 65.1% of the local population, including 24.8% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 11.5% single parents. Non-family households represent the remaining 34.9%, with single-person households accounting for 31.5% and group share houses making up 3.3%. The median household size is 2.3 individuals, which is slightly lower than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
23.3% of adults in Warrnambool hold a university qualification, including 15.8% with a bachelor degree and 4.1% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 25.1% hold a vocational qualification. 14 schools serve the area, with 6,251 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,003 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
The locality faces educational disparities, with university graduation rates at 23.3%, which is much lower than the VIC average of 33.4%. This highlights a potential area for targeted educational development. Bachelor degrees are the most common tertiary qualification at 15.8%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 4.1% and graduate diplomas at 3.4%. Vocational and technical skills are highly represented, with 35.9% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (25.1%). Enrolment levels are high, with 27.6% of residents actively participating in formal education. This group consists of 9.5% in primary schools, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.1% in higher education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Warrnambool reaches 166 stops on 16 routes, timetabled for about 1,600 services a week. The typical home sits about 260 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.3 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Analysis of the local transit network shows 166 passenger transport stops operating in Warrnambool, which include train options. These stops are served by 16 unique routes, providing a total of 1,609 weekly passenger journeys. Transport access is rated as good, with residents living an average of 258 meters from their nearest transit stop. Given the residential nature of the suburb, most workers commute out of the area, with driving remaining the primary mode of transport at 92%, while 5% walk. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 cars per home, which is below the regional average.
A relatively low 10.5% of residents work from home, based on 2021 Census data which may reflect COVID-19 pandemic conditions. Transit service frequency averages 229 trips daily across all routes, which is about 9 weekly services per stop. The corresponding map highlights the 100 closest transit stops to the central point of the area.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
64.2% of residents in Warrnambool report no long-term health condition. 7.0% need daily assistance with core activities, and 50.6% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.8 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Warrnambool exhibits notable public health concerns, based on mortality data and chronic illness rates, with health issues present in both younger and older cohorts. Private health insurance coverage is relatively low, held by approximately 51% of the population (~16,292 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent health issues in the area are mental health conditions and arthritis, affecting 9.3 and 8.9% of residents, respectively. Meanwhile, 64.2% of the population reported no long-term medical conditions, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. Working-age residents experience above-average rates of chronic conditions.
Residents aged 65 and over make up 22.5% of the population (7,246 people), which is lower than the Regional Vic. proportion of 23.9%, and national health rankings are generally consistent with the broader population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Warrnambool is largely Australian-born, at 89.3% of residents, with 6.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (30.8%) and Australian (29.0%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity in Warrnambool is lower than average, with citizens making up 89.0% of the population, 89.3% born in Australia, and 93.9% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the primary religion, followed by 51.5% of the population. The most distinct statistical variation is in Judaism, which accounts for 0.1% of residents, matching the 0.1% average across Regional Vic. Looking at parent birthplaces, the most common ancestries in Warrnambool are English at 30.8%, Australian at 29.0%, and Irish at 14.2%. Other demographic variations show Scottish ancestry at 9.5% of Warrnambool (compared to 8.8% in the region), Dutch at 1.4% (compared to 1.7%), and Sri Lankan at 0.2% (compared to 0.1%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Warrnambool is 42. 25.6% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age in Warrnambool is 42 years, which is close to the Regional Vic. median of 43 years but older than the Australian median of 38 years. The demographic breakdown shows a high proportion of 25 - 34 year-olds at 13.8%, while the 65 - 74 age group is smaller (11.4%) than in Regional Vic. Since 2021, the 75 to 84 cohort expanded from 7.0% to 8.0% of the population, whereas the 5 to 14 age group contracted from 11.9% to 10.7%. Long-term population forecasts for 2041 project significant demographic shifts, with the 25 to 34 age bracket expected to grow by 43%, adding 1,902 people to reach 6,347, while the 15 to 24 cohort is projected to grow by a marginal 1% (22 people).
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Warrnambool
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2026 this month all 13 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 1,143 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (31,308 at the 2021 Census → 32,205 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL22710). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.