Warrnambool

Population growth drivers in Warrnambool are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, Warrnambool's population is estimated at around 33,624, reflecting an increase of 2,316 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 7.4% rise from the previous figure of 31,308 inhabitants. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 31,655 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 1,076 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 513 persons per square kilometer. Warrnambool's growth rate exceeded the SA4 region's at 4.5%, marking it as a leader in regional population growth. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projected demographic shifts indicate a significant population increase in the top quartile of national non-metropolitan areas, with Warrnambool expected to grow by 9,625 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 23.7%.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Warrnambool among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Warrnambool averaged approximately 213 new dwelling approvals annually, with around 1,067 homes approved between FY-21 and FY-25. As of FY-26, there have been 127 approvals so far. On average, each new dwelling constructed over the past five financial years has accommodated approximately 0.9 new residents per year.

This suggests that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially contributing to population growth beyond current projections. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings in Warrnambool is around $462,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. Commercial approvals this financial year have totalled approximately $50.6 million, reflecting significant local commercial activity.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Warrnambool maintains similar development levels per capita, preserving market equilibrium with surrounding areas. Recent construction consists predominantly of detached dwellings (92.0%) and a smaller proportion of attached dwellings (8.0%), consistent with the area's traditional low-density character and focus on family homes. The current population density is approximately 176 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Warrnambool's population is projected to grow by around 7,971 residents by 2041. Development activity appears to be keeping pace with projected growth, although increasing competition among buyers may arise as the population expands.

Warrnambool has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, AquaZone Redevelopment, Former Saleyards Site Precinct Plan, and Wollaston Way Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Warrnambool shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Warrnambool has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. As of September 2025, its unemployment rate is 2.2%. This is lower than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, and workforce participation is similar at 61.4%.

In September 2025, 16,175 residents are in work. A low 10.5% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Health care & social assistance employs 1.2 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 2.7%, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 2.9% and employment by 3.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warrnambool's mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Warrnambool's median income among taxpayers is $49,326, with an average of $59,973. This is lower than the national average. Rest of Vic.'s median is $50,954 and average is $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Warrnambool would be approximately $53,395 (median) and $64,921 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data ranks Warrnambool's household, family and personal incomes modestly, between the 27th and 38th percentiles. The $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket dominates with 30.3% of residents (10,188 people). After housing costs, 86.3% of income remains, ranking at the 30th percentile nationally. Warrnambool's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Warrnambool is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warrnambool's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.2% houses and 17.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warrnambool was at 38.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.2% and rented ones at 30.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,408, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Warrnambool was $290, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Warrnambool's median monthly mortgage repayment is significantly lower at $1,408 than the Australian average of $1,863, while median weekly rent is substantially lower at $290 than the national figure of $375.

Warrnambool features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 65.1% of all households, including 24.8% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 34.9%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Warrnambool aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 23.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (25.1%). Educational participation is high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, consisting of primary (9.5%), secondary (7.9%), and tertiary (3.1%) levels.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warrnambool has 166 active public transport stops offering a mix of train services. These are covered by 16 routes that facilitate 1,609 weekly passenger trips in total. The accessibility of these stops is rated as good, with residents on average situated 258 meters from the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential area, most commuting is outward-bound. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 92%, while walking accounts for 5%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 10.5% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 229 trips per day, equating to approximately 9 weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map illustrates the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Warrnambool is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warrnambool faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, with common health conditions affecting residents.

The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~17,010 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues impact 9.3% of residents, while arthritis affects 8.9%. A total of 64.2% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of Vic.. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. As of 2016, the area has 21.9% of residents aged 65 and over (7,363 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic.. National rankings for health indicators are broadly in line with the general population.

Warrnambool is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warrnambool had a cultural diversity index of 63.0 as of June 2016, with 89.0% of its residents being Australian citizens and 89.3% born in Australia. The majority spoke English at home, at 93.9%. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 51.5% of Warrnambool's population.

While Judaism comprised only 0.1%, this was similar to the Rest of Vic figure of 0.1%. In terms of ancestry, English (30.8%) and Australian (29.0%) were the most common, followed by Irish at 14.2%. Notably, Scottish ancestry was overrepresented in Warrnambool at 9.5%, compared to 8.8% regionally. Dutch ancestry was also slightly underrepresented at 1.4%, versus 1.7% regionally. Sri Lankan ancestry, however, showed a notable increase from regional levels of 0.1% to 0.2%.

Warrnambool's median age exceeds the national pattern

Warrnambool's median age is 42 years, comparable to Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows a prominent group aged 25-34 (14.6%) and a smaller group aged 65-74 (11.3%), compared to Rest of Vic.. Between 2021 and the present, the 25-34 age group has grown from 12.9% to 14.6%, while the 5-14 cohort has declined from 11.9% to 10.5% and the 45-54 group has dropped from 12.3% to 11.2%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Warrnambool. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow by 38%, adding 1,872 residents to reach 6,782. Conversely, numbers in the 15-24 age range are expected to fall by 144.