Warrnambool

Population growth drivers in Warrnambool are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Warrnambool statistical area (Lv2) is around 33,424, reflecting an increase of 2,116 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 6.8% increase from the previous population count of 31,308. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 31,655 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 952 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 510 persons per square kilometer. The Warrnambool (SA2) experienced a growth rate of 6.8% since the 2021 census, exceeding the SA4 region's growth rate of 4.2%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering these projected demographic shifts, the Warrnambool (SA2) is forecasted to experience significant population increase in the top quartile of national non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the area is expected to grow by 9,622 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 24.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Warrnambool among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Warrnambool averaged approximately 213 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 1,067 homes were approved, with an additional 127 in FY-26 so far. This averages to about 0.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past five financial years.

The average construction value of new dwellings is approximately $462,000. There have been $50.6 million in commercial approvals this financial year. Warrnambool's development levels are similar to those of Rest of Vic., maintaining market equilibrium with surrounding areas.

Recent construction comprises 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% attached dwellings, indicating a focus on low-density family homes. There are approximately 176 people per dwelling approval in the area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Warrnambool is projected to gain around 8,173 residents by 2041. Development pace appears reasonable given population growth projections, though increasing competition among buyers may arise as the population expands.

Warrnambool has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified 18 projects potentially impacting the region. Notable initiatives comprise Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, AquaZone Redevelopment, Former Saleyards Site Precinct Plan, and Wollaston Way Estate. The following details projects likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Warrnambool shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Warrnambool has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 2.2%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 16,175 residents in work and the unemployment rate is 1.5% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is fairly standard at 60.1%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Health care & social assistance has particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 2.7% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 2.9%, combined with employment decreasing by 3.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.7%, the labour force fell by 0.6%, and unemployment rose marginally. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.7% over ten years in Warrnambool, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 reports Warrnambool's median income among taxpayers at $49,326 and average at $59,973. These figures are lower than national averages. Comparatively, Rest of Vic.'s median is $50,954 and average is $62,728. Assuming an 8.25% growth from financial year 2023 to September 2025 based on Wage Price Index, current estimates for Warrnambool would be approximately $53,395 (median) and $64,921 (average). Census 2021 income data ranks Warrnambool's household, family, and personal incomes modestly, between the 27th and 38th percentiles. The $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 30.3% of residents (10,127 people), consistent with surrounding regions at 30.3%. After housing costs, 86.3% of income remains, ranking at the 30th percentile nationally. Warrnambool's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Warrnambool is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The latest Census in Warrnambool revealed that 82.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 17.8% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic had 87.6% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warrnambool stood at 38.2%, with mortgaged properties at 31.2% and rented ones at 30.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,408, lower than Non-Metro Vic's average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Warrnambool was $290, compared to Non-Metro Vic's $283. Nationally, Warrnambool's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,408 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warrnambool features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 65.1% of all households, including 24.8% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 34.9%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households making up 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Warrnambool aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 23.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.4%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 35.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas account for 10.8% and certificates for 25.1%. Educational participation is high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.5% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Warrnambool shows that there are 166 active transport stops currently operating. These include a mix of train and bus services. A total of 16 individual routes service these stops, collectively providing 1,609 weekly passenger trips.

The report rates transport accessibility as good, with residents typically located approximately 258 meters from the nearest transport stop. Across all routes, service frequency averages around 229 trips per day, equating to roughly 9 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warrnambool is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warrnambool faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 51% of its total population (~16,909 people) have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues affect 9.3% of residents, while arthritis impacts 8.9%. About 64.2% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 65.9% in the rest of Victoria. The area has 22.0% of residents aged 65 and over (7,353 people).

Warrnambool is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warrnambool's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.0% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (89.3%), and speaking English only at home (93.9%). Christianity is the predominant religion in Warrnambool, comprising 51.5% of the population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented, making up 0.1% of Warrnambool's population compared to 0.1% across Victoria.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (30.8%), Australian (29.0%), and Irish (14.2%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Scottish is slightly overrepresented at 9.5% in Warrnambool versus 9.6% regionally, Dutch at 1.4% compared to 1.5%, and Sri Lankan at 0.2% against 0.1%.

Warrnambool's median age exceeds the national pattern

Warrnambool's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that 25-34 year-olds comprise 14.2%, while the 65-74 group constitutes 11.4%. Since 2021, the 25-34 age group has grown from 12.9% to 14.2%, and the 5-14 cohort has declined from 11.9% to 10.7%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Warrnambool. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 43%, adding 2,037 residents to reach 6,784. Conversely, the 15-24 age range is expected to decrease by 120 residents.