Warrnambool

Population growth drivers in Warrnambool are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, Warrnambool's population is estimated at around 33,624, reflecting an increase of 2,316 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 7.4% increase from the previous population count of 31,308. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 31,655 following examination of ABS data released in June 2024, along with an additional 1,076 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 513 persons per square kilometer. Warrnambool's growth exceeded that of its SA4 region (4.5%), marking it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projected demographic shifts indicate a significant population increase in the top quartile of national non-metropolitan areas. Warrnambool is expected to grow by 9,523 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 22.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Warrnambool among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Warrnambool averaged around 212 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 1,060 homes were approved, with an additional 148 so far in FY-26. On average, 0.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past five financial years indicates that new construction is matching or outpacing demand.

The average value of new dwellings developed is $465,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This financial year has seen $50.6 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Rest of Vic., Warrnambool has similar development levels per person, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas.

Recent construction comprises 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 178 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts indicate Warrnambool will gain 7,554 residents through to 2041, as per the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Development is keeping reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Warrnambool has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects likely to influence the region. Notable projects include Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, AquaZone Redevelopment, Former Saleyards Site Precinct Plan, and Wollaston Way Estate. The following list details projects of highest relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Warrnambool shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Warrnambool has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well-represented. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.1%. This is lower than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is similar at 61.5%.

According to AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data, 15,873 residents are in work. A low 10.5% of residents work from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Health care & social assistance is particularly notable with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 2.7% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 6.4%, with employment decreasing by the same percentage, leaving unemployment broadly flat. This contrasts with Regional Vic., where employment contracted by 0.6%, and unemployment fell slightly. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warrnambool's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates Warrnambool's median income among taxpayers is $49,326, with an average of $59,973. This is lower than the national average. Regional Vic.'s median is $50,954 and average is $62,728. By September 2025, estimates suggest Warrnambool's median income will be approximately $53,395 and average $64,921, based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Census 2021 data shows Warrnambool's household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly, between the 27th and 38th percentiles. The $1,500 - $2,999 income bracket dominates with 30.3% of residents (10,188 people), consistent with surrounding regions' trends. After housing costs, 86.3% of income remains, ranking at the 30th percentile nationally. Warrnambool's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Warrnambool is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Warrnambool, as per the latest Census, 82.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 17.8% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warrnambool stood at 38.2%, with mortgaged properties at 31.2% and rented ones at 30.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,408, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Warrnambool was $290, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Warrnambool's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,408 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warrnambool features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 65.1% of all households, including 24.8% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 34.9%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Warrnambool aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 23.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 25.1%. Educational participation is high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.5% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warrnambool's public transport analysis indicates 166 active transport stops operating within the area, offering a mix of train services. These stops are served by 16 individual routes, collectively facilitating 1,609 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 258 meters from their nearest transport stop. As predominantly residential, most residents commute outward, with car remaining the dominant mode at 92%, while 5% walk. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 10.5% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 229 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 9 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Warrnambool is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warrnambool faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high among both younger and older age cohorts, with common health conditions somewhat prevalent.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~17,010 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area were mental health issues (9.3%) and arthritis (8.9%), while 64.2% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic.. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 22.0% of residents aged 65 and over (7,397 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic.. National rankings are broadly in line with the general population.

Warrnambool is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warrnambool's cultural diversity was assessed as below average, with 89.0% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (89.3%), and speaking English only at home (93.9%). Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 51.5% of Warrnambool's population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented, making up 0.1% compared to Regional Vic.'s 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (30.8%), Australian (29.0%), and Irish (14.2%). Other ethnicities showed variations: Scottish was overrepresented at 9.5% (vs regional 8.8%), Dutch at 1.4% (vs 1.7%), and Sri Lankan at 0.2% (vs 0.1%).

Warrnambool's median age exceeds the national pattern

Warrnambool's median age is 42 years, similar to Regional Vic.'s average of 43 and considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that 25-34 year-olds are particularly prominent at 14.7%, while the 65-74 group is comparatively smaller at 11.3% than in Regional Vic.. From 2021 to present, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 12.9% to 14.7% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 11.9% to 10.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Warrnambool. The 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow by 36%, adding 1,791 residents to reach 6,734. In contrast, numbers in the 15 to 24 age range are expected to fall by 159.