Warrnambool - South

Warrnambool - South has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Warrnambool - South's population is approximately 14,125 as of February 2026. This figure represents a growth of 788 people, an increase of 5.9% since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 13,337. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,580 in June 2024 and an additional 456 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 117 persons per square kilometer. Warrnambool - South's growth rate exceeded that of its SA4 region (4.5%) between the 2021 Census and February 2026, making it a growth leader in the area. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during this period.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, a significant population increase is forecasted for Warrnambool - South in the top quartile of national regional areas, with an expected expansion of 3,404 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 20.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warrnambool - South recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Warrnambool South averaged approximately 72 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years from FY21 to FY25. A total of 361 homes were approved during this period, with an additional 25 approved in FY26 up until now. The average population increase per year for each dwelling built was around 0.9 people between FY21 and FY25, indicating that new supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, providing ample buyer options and creating capacity for future population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of these properties was approximately $403,000, which is moderately higher than regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction. In the current financial year, there have been $68.0 million in commercial development approvals recorded, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Warrnambool South shows 15.0% lower construction activity per person but ranks among the 57th percentile nationally when measured against other areas assessed.

Recent construction in Warrnambool South comprised approximately 96.0% detached houses and 4.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. This pattern differs from current trends (76.0% detached houses at Census), demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. Warrnambool South reflects a low-density area, with around 280 people per approval. Future projections estimate that Warrnambool South will add approximately 2,859 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Building activity is currently keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience increased competition as the population grows.

Warrnambool - South has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that could impact the area's performance. Key projects include Former Saleyards Site Precinct Plan, Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, Warrnambool Surf Life Saving Club Redevelopment, and Warrnambool Base Hospital Redevelopment. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Warrnambool - South exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Warrnambool - South has an unemployment rate of 2.3% as of September 2025. It has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. There are 6,884 residents in work, which is 1.5% below the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is broadly similar to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. According to Census responses, 12.4% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 3.9% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. There is one worker for every resident, indicating it functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 3.0% and employment declined by 3.1%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Warrnambool - South's employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Warrnambool - South SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $51,934 and an average income of $63,427 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was below the national average for that year. The Rest of Vic's median income was $50,954 with an average income of $62,728 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $56,219 (median) and $68,660 (average). Census data from 2021 showed that household, family, and personal incomes in Warrnambool - South ranked modestly, between the 26th and 40th percentiles. Income analysis revealed that 30.0% of locals (4,237 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, which was consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region where 30.3% were in the same category. After housing costs, 86.5% of income remained, ranking at the 30th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Warrnambool - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warrnambool - South's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.6% houses and 24.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warrnambool - South stood at 38.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.3% and rented ones at 31.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,387, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure was $287, slightly higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Warrnambool - South's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,387 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warrnambool - South features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.4% of all households, including 23.1% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.6%, with lone person households at 33.8% and group households comprising 3.8%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Warrnambool - South aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Warrnambool's residents aged 15+ have 26.1% with university degrees, compared to Victoria's 33.4%. This indicates potential for educational development. Bachelor degrees are most common at 17.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational credentials are held by 35.0% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 23.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.1% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.8% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 3.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warrnambool - South has 86 active public transport stops serving a mix of train services. These are covered by 16 routes offering 1,482 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is rated good, with residents typically 239 meters from the nearest stop. Most commute outward daily. Car use dominates at 89%, while walking accounts for 8%. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.3, below the regional average.

In 2021 Census data, 12.4% of residents worked from home, which might reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 211 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 17 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Warrnambool - South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warrnambool South faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and prevalence of chronic conditions are high across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 50% of residents have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (9.4%) and arthritis (9.1%). 63.6% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to the Rest of Vic's 63.4%. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over (23.8%, or 3,361 people), with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Warrnambool - South is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warrnambool-South was found to have a below average level of cultural diversity, with 88.2% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (88.5%), and speaking English only at home (93.5%). Christianity is the predominant religion in Warrnambool-South, accounting for 48.4% of the population. However, Judaism is notably overrepresented, comprising 0.1% compared to the regional average of 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (30.4%), Australian (28.2%), and Irish (14.4%). There are notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Scottish is overrepresented at 9.8%, Dutch at 1.6%, and Sri Lankan at 0.2%.

Warrnambool - South hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Warrnambool - South has a median age of 43, equal to the Rest of Vic.'s figure and above the national average of 38. The age profile shows that 25-34 year-olds are prominent at 15.4%, while the 5-14 group is smaller at 9.5% compared to Rest of Vic.. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 25-34 age group has grown from 12.7% to 15.4%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 12.5% to 11.0%, and the 5-14 group has dropped from 10.6% to 9.5%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Warrnambool - South's age structure. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 35%, reaching 2,931 people from the current 2,171. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 15-24 cohorts.