Warrnambool - South
Statistical Area - sa2

Warrnambool - South has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Warrnambool - South's population was approximately 13,933 as of November 2025. This figure represents a growth of 596 individuals, marking a 4.5% increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 13,337. This change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,599 in June 2024 and an additional 361 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 115 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential for further development. Warrnambool - South's growth rate of 4.5% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's growth rate of 3.4%, positioning it as a growth leader in the area. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilized VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Warrnambool - South is forecasted to experience significant population increase in the top quartile of national regional areas, with an expected expansion of 3,404 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 21.9% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warrnambool - South recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Warrnambool South has averaged approximately 72 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 361 homes were approved, with an additional 21 approved so far in FY-26. The average number of people moving to the area per dwelling built over these years is 0.9.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is $403,000, which is moderately above regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $68.0 million, indicating robust local business investment.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Warrnambool South shows 15.0% lower construction activity per person but ranks among the 57th percentile nationally when assessed against other areas. Recent construction comprises 96.0% detached houses and 4.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. This trend favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest (76.0% at Census), demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. With around 280 people per approval, Warrnambool South reflects a low density area. Future projections indicate that Warrnambool South will add approximately 3,051 residents by 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Warrnambool - South has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that could impact the area, with key ones being Former Saleyards Site Precinct Plan, Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, Warrnambool Surf Life Saving Club Redevelopment, and Warrnambool Base Hospital Redevelopment. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warrnambool - South demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Warrnambool - South has an unemployment rate of 1.8% as of June 2025, with 6,976 residents employed. The unemployment rate is 2.0% lower than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, and workforce participation is similar at 57.4%.

Key industries employing residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Notably, health care & social assistance has an employment share 1.2 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented with only 3.9% of workforce compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The area functions as an employment hub with 1.0 worker per resident, attracting workers from surrounding areas.

Between June 2024 and June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.9%, while employment declined by 1.4%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate of 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.9% and labour force decline of 0.4%, with an increase in unemployment rate of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Warrnambool - South's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Warrnambool - South had a median taxpayer income of $50,164 and an average income of $61,152 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of Vic.'s median income being $48,741 and average income being $60,693. By September 2025, based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022, estimated incomes would be approximately $56,264 (median) and $68,588 (average). Census data from 2021 shows Warrnambool - South's household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly, between the 27th and 41st percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 30.0% of locals (4,179 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, similar to the surrounding region's 30.3%. After accounting for housing costs, 86.5% of income remains, ranking at the 30th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Warrnambool - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Warrnambool - South, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.6% houses and 24.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 87.6% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warrnambool - South was at 38.5%, with the rest either mortgaged (30.3%) or rented (31.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,387, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Warrnambool - South was $287, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $283. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863 and rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warrnambool - South features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.4% of all households, including 23.1% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.6%, with lone person households at 33.8% and group households comprising 3.8%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Warrnambool - South aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Warrnambool South has 26.1% of residents aged 15+ with university degrees, compared to Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common (17.2%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational credentials are held by 35.0%, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (23.6%). Current educational participation is high at 26.1%, with 8.8% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 3.4% in tertiary education.

The area's five schools have a combined enrolment of 1,325 students, serving distinct age groups with four primary and one secondary school. School places per 100 residents (9.6) are below the regional average (14.7), indicating some students may attend adjacent areas' schools. Note: 'n/a' in school enrolments refers to parent campus data.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warrnambool - South has 86 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 36 individual routes, collectively facilitating 2,766 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 238 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 395 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 32 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Warrnambool - South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warrnambool South faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population, which is around 6966 people.

This compares to a national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues impact 9.4% of residents, while arthritis affects 9.1%. Approximately 63.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.9% across the rest of Victoria. The area has 23.8% of residents aged 65 and over, which is around 3317 people, higher than the 21.5% in the rest of Victoria.

Warrnambool - South is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warrnambool-South was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 88.2% of its population being Australian citizens, 88.5% born in Australia, and 93.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Warrnambool-South, comprising 48.4% of its population. Judaism is overrepresented compared to Rest of Vic., with 0.1% of Warrnambool-South's population identifying as such.

The top three ancestry groups are English (30.4%), Australian (28.2%), and Irish (14.4%). Notably, Scottish ancestry is slightly overrepresented at 9.8%, Dutch at 1.6%, and Sri Lankan at 0.2%.

Warrnambool - South hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Warrnambool - South's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Warrnambool - South has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (14.8%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.6%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the 25-34 age group grew from 12.7% to 14.8%, while the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.5% to 11.4%. By 2041, Warrnambool - South's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 42% (867 people), reaching 2,931 from 2,063. Conversely, the 55-64 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to decrease in population.