Warrnambool - South

Warrnambool - South has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Warrnambool - South's population was approximately 13,933 as of November 2025. This figure represents a growth of 596 people (4.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,337. The increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,599 in June 2024 and an additional 361 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 115 persons per square kilometer. Warrnambool - South's growth rate exceeded that of its SA4 region (3.4%) between 2021 and November 2025, making it a growth leader. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during this period.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the area is expected to increase its population by 3,404 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 21.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warrnambool - South recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Warrnambool South averaged approximately 72 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with a total of 361 homes approved and an additional 22 approved in FY-26. The average population growth associated with these approvals was around 0.9 people per year between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that new supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for future population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new properties was $403,000, which is moderately higher than regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction.

In FY-26, commercial development approvals totaled $68.0 million, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Warrnambool South showed 15.0% lower construction activity per person but ranked in the 57th percentile nationally when measured against other areas assessed. Recent construction comprised 96.0% detached houses and 4.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers despite increasing density pressures.

The current preference for detached housing (96.0%) exceeds the Census figure of 76.0%, demonstrating strong demand for family homes. With around 280 people per approval, Warrnambool South reflects a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 3,051 residents by 2041. Building activity appears to be keeping pace with growth projections, but buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Warrnambool - South has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that could impact the area significantly due to their influence on local infrastructure. Notable initiatives include Former Saleyards Site Precinct Plan, Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, Warrnambool Surf Life Saving Club Redevelopment, and Warrnambool Base Hospital Redevelopment. The following list details those projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Warrnambool - South exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Warrnambool - South has an unemployment rate of 2.3% as of September 2025, with 6,884 residents employed. This is 1.5% lower than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area specialises in health care & social assistance with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level, but agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 3.9% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. There is one worker for every resident, indicating it functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas.

Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 3.0% and employment declined by 3.1%, with unemployment remaining stable. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced a marginal employment decline of 0.7%. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Warrnambool - South's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Warrnambool - South SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $50,164 and an average of $61,152 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was below the national average for that year. The Rest of Vic., on the other hand, had a median income of $48,741 and an average income of $60,693 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Warrnambool - South would be approximately $56,264 (median) and $68,588 (average) as of September 2025. Census data from 2021 shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Warrnambool - South all rank modestly, between the 26th and 40th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the predominant cohort spans 30.0% of locals (4,179 people) with incomes in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 30.3% in the same category. After housing costs, 86.5% of income remains, ranking at the 30th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Warrnambool - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Warrnambool - South, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.6% houses and 24.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 87.6% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Warrnambool - South was 38.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.3% and rented ones at 31.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,387, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure was $287, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $283. Nationally, Warrnambool - South's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,387 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warrnambool - South features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.4% of all households, including 23.1% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.6%, with lone person households at 33.8% and group households comprising 3.8%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Warrnambool - South aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Warrnambool's educational qualifications show 26.1% of residents aged 15+ have university degrees, compared to Victoria's 33.4%. This gap indicates potential for educational development. Bachelor degrees are most common at 17.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent with 35.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (23.6%).

Educational participation is high at 26.1%, with 8.8% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warrnambool - South has 86 active public transport stops, served by a mix of trains and buses. These stops are covered by 36 individual routes, collectively offering 2,766 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 238 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 395 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 32 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warrnambool - South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warrnambool's south faces notable health challenges with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Approximately 50% (~6,966 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues affect 9.4% of residents, while arthritis impacts 9.1%. About 63.6% report no medical ailments, compared to 65.9% in Rest of Vic.. The area has 23.8% (3,317 people) aged 65 and over, higher than the 21.5% in Rest of Vic..

Warrnambool - South is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warrnambool-South had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 88.2% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (88.5%), and speaking English only at home (93.5%). Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 48.4% of the population. While Judaism's representation was similar to the regional average at 0.1%, notable overrepresentation occurred among Scottish (9.8% vs 9.6%) and Dutch (1.6% vs 1.5%) ancestry groups.

Additionally, Sri Lankan ancestry was slightly higher than the regional average at 0.2%.

Warrnambool - South hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Warrnambool - South's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38. Compared to Rest of Vic., Warrnambool - South has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (14.8%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.6%). In the 2021 Census, the age group of 25 to 34 years increased from 12.7% to 14.8% of the population. Meanwhile, the age group of 45 to 54 decreased from 12.5% to 11.4%. By 2041, Warrnambool - South's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 42%, reaching 2,931 people from the current 2,063. Conversely, the 55-64 and 15-24 age groups are expected to experience population declines.