Warrnambool - South
Statistical Area - sa2

Warrnambool - South has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Warrnambool - South's population is around 13,858 as of August 2025. This reflects an increase of 521 people (3.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,337 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,599 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 327 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 115 persons per square kilometer. Warrnambool - South's growth of 3.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's growth of 2.9%. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering these projections, Warrnambool - South is forecast to experience significant population increase, with an expected expansion of 3,404 persons by 2041 based on the latest population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 22.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warrnambool - South recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Warrnambool South has averaged approximately 72 new dwelling approvals annually. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, with a total of 361 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY-2021 to FY-2025, and an additional 12 approved in FY-2026 so far. On average, around 0.9 people have moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five financial years, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, which provides greater buyer choice and supports potential population growth above projections. New properties are constructed at an average value of $707,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

There have been $68.0 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to the Rest of Victoria, Warrnambool South shows 15.0% lower construction activity per person while ranking among the 57th percentile nationally. New building activity comprises 96.0% standalone homes and 4.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

This contrasts with current patterns suggesting 76.0% detached housing at Census, demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes. With around 280 people per dwelling approval, Warrnambool South exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. Future projections indicate Warrnambool South adding approximately 3,126 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Warrnambool - South has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified 16 infrastructure projects that could impact the area's performance. Notable ones include Former Saleyards Site Precinct Plan, Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, Warrnambool Surf Life Saving Club Redevelopment, and Warrnambool Base Hospital Redevelopment. The following list details those expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market in Warrnambool - South shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Warrnambool South has a skilled workforce with strong representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 1.8% as of June 2025.

It had 6,976 residents employed with an unemployment rate of 2.0%, lower than the Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation was similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Health care & social assistance had particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence with 3.9% employment compared to 7.0% regionally. The area functioned as an employment hub with 1.0 workers per resident, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. Over the 12 months to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.9% and employment decreased by 1.4%, resulting in a fall of 0.5 percentage points in unemployment rate. By comparison, Rest of Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.9% with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 estimated growth patterns for Warrnambool South based on its local employment profile. These projections suggested local growth of approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022, Warrnambool - South's median income among taxpayers is $50,164. The average income is $61,152. This is below the national average. Rest of Vic.'s median income is $48,741 with an average of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year ending June 2022, current estimates for Warrnambool - South would be approximately $55,236 (median) and $67,334 (average) as of March 2025. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household incomes rank at the 30th percentile nationally, family incomes at the 27th percentile, and personal incomes at the 41st percentile in Warrnambool - South. Income brackets indicate that 30% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually (4,157 people), which aligns with the metropolitan region where this cohort also represents 30.3%. After housing costs, 86.5% of income remains, ranking at the 30th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fourth decile.

Warrnambool - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Warrnambool - South, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.6% houses and 24.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 87.6% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Warrnambool - South was at 38.5%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (30.3%) or rented (31.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,387, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure stood at $287, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $283. Nationally, Warrnambool - South's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warrnambool - South features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.4% of all households, including 23.1% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.6%, with lone person households at 33.8% and group households comprising 3.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Warrnambool - South aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Warrnambool - South has 26.1% of residents aged 15+ with university degrees, compared to Victoria's 33.4%. This indicates potential for educational development. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 35.0% of residents holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (23.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 26.1% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (8.8%), secondary (7.1%), and tertiary (3.4%). The five schools combined have an enrollment of 1,325 students. Warrnambool - South has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1022) with balanced educational opportunities. There are four primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups. School places per 100 residents (9.6) fall below the regional average (14.7), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warrnambool - South has 86 active public transport stops operating within its area. These stops are served by a total of 36 individual routes, which combined offer 2,766 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average located 238 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 395 trips per day, resulting in approximately 32 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warrnambool - South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warrnambool South faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 50% (~6,929 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (9.4%) and arthritis (9.1%). About 63.6% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 65.9% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 23.8% (3,299 people) aged 65 and over, higher than the state average of 21.5%.

Warrnambool - South is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warrnambool-South was found to have a cultural diversity below average, with 88.2% of its population being citizens, 88.5% born in Australia, and 93.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Warrnambool-South, making up 48.4% of the population. Judaism's representation stands out, comprising 0.1% of the population compared to 0.1% across Rest of Vic..

The top three ancestry groups are English (30.4%), Australian (28.2%), and Irish (14.4%). Notably, Scottish (9.8%) is overrepresented in Warrnambool-South compared to regionally (9.6%), as are Dutch (1.6% vs 1.5%) and Sri Lankan (0.2% vs 0.1%).

Warrnambool - South hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Warrnambool - South's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Warrnambool - South has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (14.8%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.6%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the percentage of residents aged 25-34 has increased from 12.7% to 14.8%, while the percentage of those aged 45-54 has decreased from 12.5% to 11.4%. By 2041, Warrnambool - South's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 43%, increasing from 2,052 to 2,931 people. Conversely, the 55-64 and 15-24 age groups are expected to experience population declines.