Warrnambool - South

Warrnambool - South has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Warrnambool - South's population is around 14,125 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 788 people (5.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,337 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,580 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 456 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 117 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Warrnambool - South's 5.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (4.5%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national regional areas is forecast, with the area expected to expand by 3,404 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 20.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warrnambool - South recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Warrnambool - South has averaged around 72 new dwelling approvals each year, with 361 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 33 so far in FY-26. With an average of only 0.9 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $403,000—moderately above regional levels—indicating an emphasis on quality construction. Additionally, $68.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting robust local business investment.

When measured against Rest of Vic., Warrnambool - South shows 15.0% lower construction activity (per person) while it places among the 57th percentile of areas assessed nationally. Recent construction comprises 96.0% detached houses and 4.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. New construction favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest (76.0% at Census), demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. At around 280 people per approval, Warrnambool - South reflects a low density area.

Future projections show Warrnambool - South adding 2,859 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Warrnambool - South has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 16 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Former Saleyards Site Precinct Plan, Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, Warrnambool Surf Life Saving Club Redevelopment, and Warrnambool Base Hospital Redevelopment, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warrnambool - South demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Warrnambool - South has a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of just 2.2%. As of December 2025, 6,758 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.5% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. Based on Census responses, a low 12.4% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area has particular employment specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level. On the other hand, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 3.9% of Warrnambool - South's workforce compared to 7.5% in Regional Vic.. With 1.0 workers for every resident, as at the Census, the area functions as an employment hub, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 6.4% while employment declined by 6.3%, resulting in the unemployment rate falling by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.6% and labour force decline of 0.7%, with a 0.1 percentage point drop. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Warrnambool - South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Warrnambool - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Warrnambool - South SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $51,934 and an average of $63,427 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is below the national average, contrasting with Regional Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $56,219 (median) and $68,660 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Warrnambool - South, between the 26th and 40th percentiles. Income analysis reveals the predominant cohort spans 30.0% of locals (4,237 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 30.3% in the same category. After housing, 86.5% of income remains, though this ranks at only the 30th percentile nationally and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Warrnambool - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Warrnambool - South, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 75.6% houses and 24.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Warrnambool - South slightly lagged that of Regional Vic. at 38.5%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (30.3%) or rented (31.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Regional Vic. average at $1,387, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $287, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Warrnambool - South's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warrnambool - South features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 62.4% of all households, comprising 23.1% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.6%, with lone person households at 33.8% and group households comprising 3.8% of the total. The median household size of 2.2 people is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Warrnambool - South aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Warrnambool - South trail regional benchmarks, with 26.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 33.4% in VIC. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 17.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 35.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (23.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.1% of residents enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.8% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 86 active transport stops operating within Warrnambool - South, comprising a mix of train. These stops are serviced by 16 individual routes, collectively providing 1,482 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 239 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 89%, with 8% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A relatively low 12.4% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 211 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warrnambool - South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warrnambool - South faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~7,133 people). The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 9.4% and 9.1% of residents, respectively, while 63.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 23.8% of residents aged 65 and over (3,361 people), with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Warrnambool - South is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warrnambool - South was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 88.2% of its population being citizens, 88.5% born in Australia, and 93.5% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Warrnambool - South is Christianity, which makes up 48.4% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.1% of the population, compared to 0.1% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Warrnambool - South are English, comprising 30.4% of the population, Australian, comprising 28.2% of the population, and Irish, comprising 14.4% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Scottish is notably overrepresented at 9.8% of Warrnambool - South (vs 8.8% regionally), Dutch at 1.6% (vs 1.7%) and Sri Lankan at 0.2% (vs 0.1%).

Warrnambool - South hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

With a median age of 43, Warrnambool - South is equal to the Regional Vic. figure of 43 and well above the 38-year national average. The age profile shows 25 - 34 year-olds are particularly prominent (15.4%), while the 5 - 14 group is comparatively smaller (9.5%) than in Regional Vic.. Since the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 12.7% to 15.4% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.5% to 11.0% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 10.6% to 9.5%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Warrnambool - South's age structure. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 35% (759 people), reaching 2,931 from 2,171. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 55 to 64 and 15 to 24 cohorts.