Warrnambool - South

Warrnambool - South has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Warrnambool - South's population is approximately 13,671 as of May 2026. This figure shows an increase of 334 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 13,337. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,593 in June 2025 and an additional 459 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 113 persons per square kilometer. Warrnambool - South's 2.5% growth since the Census exceeded the SA4 region's 0.4%, indicating it as a growth leader. Overseas migration was the primary driver for this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024, based on 2022 data, for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, a significant population increase is forecast in the top quartile of Australian non-metropolitan areas, with Warrnambool - South expected to grow by 3,301 persons, reflecting a total increase of 23.6% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warrnambool - South recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Warrnambool South has seen approximately 72 dwellings receive development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 361 homes were approved. In FY-26 so far, 44 dwellings have been approved.

The average number of people moving to the area per dwelling built over these five years is 0.9. This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average expected construction cost value of new homes in the area is $403,000, which is moderately above regional levels, indicating an emphasis on quality construction.

In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $68.0 million, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Warrnambool South shows 15.0% lower construction activity per person, but it ranks among the 57th percentile nationally when assessed against other areas. Recent construction in Warrnambool South comprises 96.0% detached houses and 4.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting its low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. This emphasis on detached housing is more pronounced than current patterns suggest (76.0% at Census), indicating robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. With approximately 280 people per approval, Warrnambool South remains a low-density area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, future projections show the area adding 3,220 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially leading to increased buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Warrnambool - South has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

Sixteen projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. Key projects include Former Saleyards Site Precinct Plan, Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, Warrnambool Surf Life Saving Club Redevelopment, and Warrnambool Base Hospital Redevelopment. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Warrnambool - South demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Warrnambool - South has an unemployment rate of 2.2% as of December 2025. It has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. There are 6,758 residents in work, which is 1.5% below Regional Vic.'s unemployment rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation is similar to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. According to Census responses, 12.4% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area specializes in health care & social assistance with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 3.9% compared to Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. There is one worker for every resident, indicating it functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 6.4% and employment declined by 6.3%, resulting in a fall of 0.1 percentage points in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warrnambool - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Warrnambool - South SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $51,934 and an average income of $63,427 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average, with Regional Vic.'s median income being $50,954 and average income being $62,728. By March 2026, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $56,930 and the average income will be around $69,529, based on a 9.62% growth in wages since financial year 2023. Census 2021 data shows incomes in Warrnambool - South rank modestly, between the 26th and 40th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The predominant income cohort spans 30.0% of locals (4,101 people) with incomes between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to the surrounding region's 30.3% in the same category. After housing costs, 86.5% of income remains, ranking at the 30th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Warrnambool - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Warrnambool - South, as per the latest Census, 75.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 24.4% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments and other types. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warrnambool - South stood at 38.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.3% and rented ones at 31.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,387, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent was $287, slightly higher than Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Warrnambool - South's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,387 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower at $287 versus the national figure of $375.

Warrnambool - South features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.4% of all households, including 23.1% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.6%, with lone person households at 33.8% and group households comprising 3.8%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Warrnambool - South aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Warrnambool's residents aged 15+ have a university degree attainment rate of 26.1%, compared to Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational credentials are held by 35.0% of residents, with advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 23.6%. Educational participation is high, with 26.1% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (8.8%), secondary (7.1%), and tertiary (3.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.8% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warrnambool - South has 86 active public transport stops offering a mix of train services. These stops are served by 16 routes that facilitate 1,482 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically residing 239 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most residents commute outward using cars, which remain the dominant mode at 89%. Eight percent of residents walk to their destinations. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 12.4% of residents work from home, potentially reflecting COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 211 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warrnambool - South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warrnambool South faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and prevalence of chronic conditions are high among both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~6,903 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (9.4%) and arthritis (9.1%). 63.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to Regional Vic's 63.4%. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. There are 24.1% of residents aged 65 and over (3,290 people), in line with national rankings for the general population.

Warrnambool - South is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warrnambool-South had a cultural diversity level below average, with 88.2% of its population being citizens, 88.5% born in Australia, and 93.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 48.4% of Warrnambool-South's population. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (30.4%), Australian (28.2%), and Irish (14.4%). Notably, Scottish (9.8%) and Dutch (1.6%) were overrepresented, while Sri Lankan was underrepresented at 0.2% compared to Regional Vic.'s 0.1%.

Warrnambool - South hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Warrnambool - South's median age of 44 years is similar to Regional Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Regional Vic., Warrnambool - South has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (14.4%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.8%). According to the 2021 Census, the age group of 25 to 34 increased from 12.7% to 14.4%. Conversely, the age group of 45 to 54 decreased from 12.5% to 11.1%. By 2041, Warrnambool - South is expected to experience significant changes in its age composition. The 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow by 39%, reaching 2,728 people from 1,965. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 age group is projected to decline by 59 people.