Warrnambool - North

Population growth drivers in Warrnambool - North are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Warrnambool - North's population is around 24,027 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,622 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,405 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,967 from the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 730 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 384 persons per square kilometer. Warrnambool - North's growth of 7.2% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (3.4%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 76.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase is forecast in the top quartile of regional areas nationally. The area is expected to grow by 7,554 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 26.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Warrnambool - North among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Warrnambool North has seen approximately 185 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 929 homes were approved, with an additional 112 approved so far in FY26. On average, around 0.8 new residents have arrived per new home over these five years.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and allowing for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new homes has been $261,000. In FY26, $21.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to the rest of Victoria, Warrnambool North has seen slightly more development, with 29.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. Recent construction in Warrnambool North comprises 88.0% detached dwellings and 12.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low-density nature with a focus on detached housing that attracts space-seeking buyers. With around 139 people per dwelling approval, Warrnambool North exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Population forecasts suggest that Warrnambool North will gain approximately 6,443 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Construction is currently maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth; however, buyers may encounter increasing competition as the population continues to grow.

Warrnambool - North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 40thth percentile nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence regional performance. AreaSearch identified 17 projects potentially impacting the area. Notable initiatives comprise Wollaston Way Estate, AquaZone Redevelopment, Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, and Riverland Estate. The following details projects expected to have the greatest relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warrnambool - North demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Warrnambool - North has an unemployment rate of 2.0% as of September 2025. It has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented.

There are 11,783 residents employed in the area, which is 1.7% lower than Rest of Vic.'s unemployment rate of 3.8%. The workforce participation rate is 62.4%, slightly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Retail trade is particularly prominent, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 2.9% of Warrnambool - North's workforce compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by a decrease in labour force levels and employment over the year to September 2025. In comparison, Rest of Vic. recorded a lower decline in employment during this period. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warrnambool - North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by similar rates, assuming no significant changes in population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Warrnambool - North SA2 has lower income compared to the national average. The median income is $50,024 and the average income stands at $60,727. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s median income is $48,741 with an average of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes are approximately $56,107 (median) and $68,111 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that Warrnambool - North's household, family and personal incomes rank modestly, between the 32nd and 40th percentiles. The data shows 32.2% of the population falls within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to metropolitan regions where 30.3% occupy this range. After housing expenses, 86.3% of income remains for other expenses. Warrnambool - North's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Warrnambool - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Warrnambool - North, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.5% houses and 11.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 87.6% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warrnambool - North was at 37.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.8% and rented dwellings at 27.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,451, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Warrnambool - North was $300, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $283. Nationally, Warrnambool - North's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,451 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower at $300 compared to the national figure of $375.

Warrnambool - North has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 69.4% of all households, including 28.1% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.6%, with lone person households at 27.8% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average in the Rest of Vic.

Educational attainment in Warrnambool - North aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.7%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them; advanced diplomas account for 10.4% and certificates for 27.2%. Educational participation is high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.3% in primary, 8.9% in secondary, and 2.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warrnambool - North has 99 active public transport stops operating. These are served by a mix of buses along 14 individual routes. Together, these routes provide 1,608 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents typically located 413 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 229 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 16 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Warrnambool - North is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warrnambool - North faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 50% of its total population (~12,013 people) has private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (9.2%) and asthma (9.0%). About 65.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.9% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 19.7% of residents aged 65 and over (4,728 people), lower than the 21.5% in Rest of Vic..

Warrnambool - North is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warrnambool-North had a cultural diversity score below average, with 90.4% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (90.7%), and speaking English at home exclusively (94.8%). Christianity was the predominant religion in Warrnambool-North, comprising 52.7% of the population, slightly higher than the regional average of 52.0%. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.1%), Australian (30.2%), and Irish (13.9%).

Notably, Scottish ancestry was relatively high at 9.3%, compared to the regional average of 9.6%. Dutch ancestry stood at 1.4% versus the region's 1.5%, and Maori ancestry was recorded at 0.4%, slightly higher than the regional average of 0.3%.

Warrnambool - North's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Warrnambool - North is 40 years, which is slightly below Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 13.5% of the population in Warrnambool - North, notably higher than Rest of Vic.'s average, while the 65-74 age group is under-represented at 10.5%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 11.6% to 12.4%, while the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 13.3% to 12.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Warrnambool - North. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow by 1,482 people (46%), increasing from 3,238 to 4,721. Meanwhile, the 15-24 age group is projected to decrease by 20 people.