Warrnambool - North
Statistical Area - sa2

Warrnambool - North lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Warrnambool - North's population is approximately 23,952 as of August 2025. This figure represents a growth of 1,547 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 22,405. The increase is estimated from ABS data showing an EPP of 22,961 in June 2024 and 701 new addresses validated post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 383 persons per square kilometer. Warrnambool - North's growth rate of 6.9% since the 2021 Census exceeds both its SA4 region (2.9%) and non-metro areas, indicating significant population growth. Overseas migration contributed approximately 76.5% to this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made via weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Warrnambool - North is forecasted to experience a significant population increase in the top quartile of regional areas nationally, growing by 7,554 persons to reach approximately 31,496 by 2041, marking a total gain of 27.2% over 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Warrnambool - North among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Warrnambool North has seen approximately 185 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, with 929 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, and 42 approvals so far in FY-26. On average, around 0.8 people have moved to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand. The average construction cost of new homes is $404,000, aligning with regional trends.

Additionally, $21.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Warrnambool North has slightly more development, at 29.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, offering reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. Recent construction comprises 88.0% detached dwellings and 12.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

With around 139 people per dwelling approval, Warrnambool North displays characteristics of a growth area. Population forecasts indicate that Warrnambool North will gain approximately 6,518 residents by 2041. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers may encounter growing competition as the population increases.

Warrnambool - North has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 19thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Wollaston Way Estate, AquaZone Redevelopment, Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, and Riverland Estate. The following details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Warrnambool - North ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Warrnambool - North has an unemployment rate of 1.5% as of June 2025, with 11,898 residents employed. Its unemployment rate is 2.3 percentage points lower than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, and its workforce participation rate is 62.4%.

Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Retail trade is particularly prominent with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 2.9% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. Over the year to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.9%, and employment declined by 1.5%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate of 0.4 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of Vic.

had an employment decline of 0.9% and an unemployment rate rise of 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warrnambool - North's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows that income in Warrnambool - North is lower than the national average. The median income is $50,024 and the average income stands at $60,727. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s figures where the median income is $48,741 and the average income is $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year ending June 2022, current estimates for Warrnambool - North would be approximately $55,081 (median) and $66,866 (average) as of March 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Warrnambool - North rank modestly, between the 33rd and 40th percentiles. The data shows that 32.2% of the population, which is 7,712 individuals, fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 income range. This reflects patterns seen in metropolitan regions where 30.3% similarly occupy this range. After housing costs, 86.3% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Warrnambool - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Warrnambool - North, as evaluated at the latest Census in 2016, dwelling structures comprised 88.5% houses and 11.5% other dwellings such as semi-detached, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s figures of 87.6% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warrnambool - North stood at 37.8%, with mortgaged properties at 34.8% and rented dwellings at 27.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,451, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure in Warrnambool - North was $300, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $283. Nationally, Warrnambool - North's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,451 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warrnambool - North has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 69.4% of all households, consisting of 28.1% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 30.6%, with lone person households at 27.8% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational attainment in Warrnambool - North aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area has educational challenges with university qualification rates at 20.7% in 2016, significantly below the VIC average of 33.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 37.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (27.2%).

Educational participation is high at 29.0%, including primary education (10.3%), secondary education (8.9%), and tertiary education (2.8%). Twelve schools serve 5,528 students in the area, which functions as an education hub with 23.1 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 14.7. The educational mix includes six primary, four secondary, and two K-12 schools.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warrnambool - North has 99 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 14 different routes that together facilitate 1,608 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is moderate, with residents on average located 413 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 229 trips per day, which equates to approximately 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warrnambool - North is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warrnambool - North faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low, at approximately 50% of the total population (11,976 people).

This compares to a national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues impact 9.2% of residents, while asthma affects 9.0%. A total of 65.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.9% across the Rest of Vic.. The area has 19.7% of residents aged 65 and over (4,713 people), which is lower than the 21.5% in the Rest of Vic..

Warrnambool - North is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warrnambool-North had low cultural diversity, with 90.4% citizens, 90.7% born in Australia, and 94.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 52.7%, compared to 52.0% in Rest of Vic. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.1%), Australian (30.2%), and Irish (13.9%).

Scottish representation was notably higher at 9.3% versus 9.6% regionally, Dutch was slightly lower at 1.4% versus 1.5%, and Maori was marginally higher at 0.4% versus 0.3%.

Warrnambool - North's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Warrnambool - North is 40, which is slightly below Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 13.5% of the population in Warrnambool - North, compared to Rest of Vic.'s average, while the 65-74 cohort is under-represented at 10.5%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 11.6% to 12.4%, while the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 13.3% to 12.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Warrnambool - North, with the 25 to 34 age group projected to grow by 1,492 people (46%), from 3,228 to 4,721. Conversely, the 15 to 24 cohort is expected to decline by 11 people.