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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Warrnambool - North has an estimated 23,182 residents, up from 22,405 at the 2021 Census — a change of 777 people, or 3.5%. Growth has averaged 0.6% a year over five years. 868 new addresses have been validated here since Census night. That puts 371 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to the analysis conducted by AreaSearch, the population of Warrnambool - North stands at approximately 23,182 as of May 2026. This represents an addition of 777 residents (3.5%) relative to the 22,405 individuals recorded in the 2021 Census. This population shift is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 23,099 along with 868 validated new addresses registered since the Census. Based on these numbers, the area has a density of 371 persons per square kilometer, which indicates ample space per inhabitant and opportunities for future expansion.
The 3.5% rate of growth since the 2021 census outpaced the broader SA4 region (0.4%) and the SA3 area, establishing the locality as a leader in regional growth. The main driver of this expansion was overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 65.3% of the total population increase during recent timeframes. Projections from ABS and Geoscience Australia, published in 2024 using 2022 as a base year, are utilized by AreaSearch for each SA2 area. For localities where this data is unavailable, projections are sourced from the Regional/LGA figures released by the VIC State Government in 2023, adjusted via a weighted aggregation method of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. The age group growth rates derived from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for the period spanning 2032 to 2041. Based on these anticipated demographic trends, substantial population growth is predicted, placing the area in the top quartile of national non-metropolitan regions. Based on the most recent annual ERP statistics, the population is projected to grow by 7,280 individuals by 2041, representing a total increase of 31.1% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
929 new dwellings have been approved in Warrnambool - North over the past five years, an average of 185 a year. That places the area in the 74th percentile for residential development activity nationally, about 8 approvals per 1,000 residents a year. Of the 128 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 88% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 326, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), Warrnambool - North registered an average of approximately 185 new dwelling approvals each year, with a total of 929 homes approved during that period and an additional 299 approved so far in FY-26. With an average of only 0.7 new residents arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, which increases options for buyers and supports population growth beyond projections, while new residential projects average a construction value of $261,000.
Furthermore, commercial development approvals total $21.2 million this financial year, indicating a moderate level of commercial building activity. Warrnambool - North shows relatively high levels of construction compared to the Rest of Vic. (29.0% above the regional average per capita over the 5 year period), which helps maintain options for buyers and supports existing property values. Recent residential building activity consists of 88.0% detached houses and 12.0% medium and high-density dwellings, maintaining the low-density character of the area through a focus on detached homes that appeal to buyers seeking space. The area reflects a low-density profile with approximately 140 people per approval. Demographic projections indicate that Warrnambool - North will add 7,197 residents through to 2041 (calculated from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Building activity is progressing at a reasonable rate relative to this projected growth, though purchasing competition may rise as the population increases.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Warrnambool - North
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 13 current infrastructure and development projects inside Warrnambool - North, worth an estimated $2.43 billion. A further 72 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $16.6 billion. 25 are already under construction and 30 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans energy, communities, precincts & urban renewal and residential development. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure projects, major planning schemes, and developments are key drivers of regional outcomes. AreaSearch has tracked a total of 17 projects expected to influence the local area. The most significant initiatives include the Wollaston Way Estate, the AquaZone Redevelopment, the Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, and the Riverland Estate, with key details of the most relevant projects provided in the following list.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Warrnambool Base Hospital Redevelopment
A major $396.1 million healthcare project featuring a new multi-storey clinical tower, an expanded emergency department, additional operating theatres, a dedicated paediatric unit, and an offsite Regional Logistics Distribution Centre.
Wollaston Way Estate
Wollaston Way Estate is a residential development in North Warrnambool, offering vacant land lots in a peaceful, family-friendly community. The estate features modern housing options, integrated landscape design, and proximity to schools, shops, and recreational areas along the Merri River. Across 14 stages, 258 families have settled, with Stage 15 coming soon and registrations of interest now open.
AquaZone Redevelopment
Redevelopment of Warrnambool's AquaZone Aquatic and Leisure Centre on its existing site. Council endorsed the business case in early 2026 for advocacy and funding, with a recommended two-stage redevelopment. Stage 1 includes a new 50 metre pool, plant, spectator seating, entry, foyer, cafe, dry fitness areas and upgraded change facilities. Stage 2 includes a warm water pool, spa, sauna and additional program rooms to support rehabilitation, health, wellbeing and expanded community programming.
Northern Edge Estate
Master-planned residential estate in north Warrnambool offering 481 land lots for family homes and townhouses, with modern designs, green spaces, paths, and proximity to commercial, educational, and recreational facilities.
Riverland Estate
A masterplanned waterfront residential community on the banks of the Merri River in Warrnambool, offering premium lots with features including a fishing platform, playground, picnic areas, cycling tracks, walking paths, re-vegetated landscaping, fish hotels, and flood protection measures. Designed for families with a focus on sustainability and lifestyle.
Merri Views Estate Dennington
Merri Views Estate is a masterplanned residential estate in Dennington on the north western edge of Warrnambool. The development comprises approximately 195 residential lots across multiple stages. Stages 1 to 5 and 9 to 12 have sold, while Stage 13 and remaining lots continue to be released and constructed. The estate is within walking distance of St John's Primary School, shopping, sporting facilities and local services.
Wangoom Road Water Pump Station and Storage Tank
New water pump station and 1.5ML ground-level storage tank off Wangoom Road, Warrnambool, built to meet the future water supply needs of the city's growing north-east residential corridor. The project includes pump station buildings, a gantry crane, a diesel backup generator, pipeworks and associated electrical infrastructure. Ground works and the pump station building are largely complete, with tank construction and fit-out underway. No service interruptions are expected during the works, though traffic management is in place on Wangoom Road.
Brierly Recreation and Wellbeing Hub
Stage 2 redevelopment of the Brierly Recreation Reserve in north-east Warrnambool. Features a flexible multi-purpose hall, female-friendly changerooms, social facilities, community meeting rooms, a Changing Places accessible facility, and expanded car parking.
11,485 residents of Warrnambool - North are employed, from a labour force of 11,673. Unemployment sits at 1.6%, with participation at 61.4%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.4% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 19,863, about 86% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The workforce in Warrnambool - North is highly skilled, featuring strong representation in essential services and an unemployment rate of only 1.6%. As of March 2026, there are 11,485 employed residents, and the unemployment rate sits 2.1% lower than the Regional Vic. average of 3.7%, while the participation rate matches the Regional Vic. average of 61.1%. Census data indicates that a low 9.8% of residents worked from home, although this figure should be considered in light of Covid-19 lockdown restrictions. The primary employment sectors for residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.
The area has a particularly high concentration of workers in retail trade, employing residents at 1.3 times the regional average rate. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing represents a minor share of employment at 2.9%, compared to the regional average of 7.5%. The comparison between the working population and the resident population in the Census suggests that local job opportunities within the area are limited. Analysis of SALM and ABS data by AreaSearch indicates that the twelve-month period experienced a 6.2% reduction in the labour force and a 6.0% drop in employment, which resulted in unemployment declining by 0.2 percentage points. This trend differs from Regional Vic., where employment decreased by 0.1%, the labour force dropped by 0.3%, and unemployment also fell by 0.2 percentage points. Forecasts for national employment released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25 provide additional context regarding potential future demand in Warrnambool - North. These outlooks span five and ten-year intervals and have been overlaid with local employment characteristics to estimate growth trajectories. National employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and by 13.7% over ten years, though expansion varies considerably across different industry sectors. When these sector-specific projections are applied to the employment composition of Warrnambool - North, local employment is expected to rise by 6.4% over five years and by 13.5% over ten years. This calculation relies on a straightforward weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not incorporate localized population projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Warrnambool - North is $1,451 a week (about $75,000 a year), with median personal income at $760 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $52,068 a year against an average of $62,778. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
According to the latest postcode-level ATO statistics compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023, incomes in the Warrnambool - North SA2 are lower than the national average, with a median of $52,068 and an average of $62,778. In comparison, Regional Vic. recorded a median income of $50,954 and an average of $62,728. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for March 2026 are approximately $57,077 for the median and $68,817 for the average. Based on the 2021 Census, household, family, and individual incomes in Warrnambool - North are positioned moderately, falling between the 32nd and 40th percentiles.
In terms of income distribution, 32.2% of the population (7,464 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to the wider region where this group accounts for 30.3%. Discretionary funds remaining after housing costs stand at 86.3% of income, and the area is positioned in the 4th decile of the SEIFA income index.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Warrnambool - North had 8,713 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 89% detached houses and 2% apartments. 35% are owned with a mortgage, 27% rented and 38% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $300 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,451 a month. Rent absorbs 20.7% of household income here and mortgage repayments 23.1%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
The distribution of housing types in Warrnambool - North at the time of the last Census consisted of 88.5% standalone houses and 11.5% other dwelling types (including semi-detached properties, apartments, and alternative structures), compared to 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings in Regional Vic. The rate of home ownership in Warrnambool - North was slightly lower than the Regional Vic. rate of 37.8%, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (34.8%) or rented (27.4%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,451 was higher than the Regional Vic. average of $1,430, and the median weekly rent of $300 exceeded the Regional Vic.
average of $285. On a national level, mortgage repayments in Warrnambool - North are notably lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are also well below the national median of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Warrnambool - North counted 8,713 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.4 people each. 28% are couples with children, against 28% couples without children. 28% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.9 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family units constitute the majority of households at 69.4%, which includes 28.1% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 12.5% single-parent households. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 30.6%, with single-person households representing 27.8% and group households making up 2.8%. The median household size of 2.4 residents is identical to the Regional Vic. average.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
20.7% of adults in Warrnambool - North hold a university qualification, including 14.3% with a bachelor degree and 3.3% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 27.2% hold a vocational qualification. 12 schools serve the area, with 5,528 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,001 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Educational attainment levels present a challenge in the area, with the university qualification rate of 20.7% falling well below the VIC state average of 33.4%. This gap offers a potential opportunity for targeted educational programs. Among degree holders, bachelor qualifications are most common at 14.3%, followed by postgraduate degrees (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational and technical training is common, with 37.6% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications in these areas, consisting of advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificate level credentials (27.2%). A high proportion of residents participate in learning, with 29.0% of the population currently enrolled in an educational institution.
This figure includes 10.3% attending primary school, 8.9% in secondary education, and 2.8% undertaking tertiary studies.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Warrnambool - North reaches 99 stops on 7 routes, timetabled for about 870 services a week. The typical home sits about 410 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.4 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Analysis of the local transit network shows there are 99 active public transport stops in Warrnambool - North. These locations are served by 7 separate routes, which support a total of 873 passenger trips per week. Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents living an average of 414 meters from their nearest stop. Because it is a predominantly residential area, the majority of workers travel outside the suburb for employment, with private cars remaining the primary travel mode for 95% of commuters. Average vehicle ownership stands at 1.4 per home. A relatively low 9.8% of residents worked from home, based on 2021 Census data, which may reflect the influence of COVID-19 safety measures.
The average frequency of public transit service is 124 trips per day across the network, which translates to roughly 8 weekly trips for each transport stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
65.5% of residents in Warrnambool - North report no long-term health condition. 6.1% need daily assistance with core activities, and 50.4% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.6 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Warrnambool - North presents notable health issues based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality data and the occurrence of chronic conditions, which are prevalent across both younger and older demographics, while the proportion of residents with private health insurance is relatively low at roughly 50% of the population (~11,683 people) compared to the national average of 55.7%. Mental health difficulties and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 9.2 and 9.0% of the population, respectively, while 65.5% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic.
Chronic conditions are higher than average among working-age individuals. Residents aged 65 and over make up 20.1% of the population (4,671 people), which is below the Regional Vic. figure of 23.9%, and national health rankings are generally consistent with the broader population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Warrnambool - North is largely Australian-born, at 90.7% of residents, with 5.2% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (31.1%) and Australian (30.2%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity in Warrnambool - North is below average, with citizens making up 90.4% of the population, 90.7% of residents born in Australia, and 94.8% speaking only English at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, practiced by 52.7% of the local population, compared to 47.3% across Regional Vic. In terms of family background (parents' birth countries), the three most common ancestries in Warrnambool - North are English (31.1%), Australian (30.2%), and Irish (13.9%). There are also notable differences in other groups, with Scottish ancestry overrepresented at 9.3% (compared to 8.8% regionally), Dutch at 1.4% (compared to 1.7% regionally), and Maori at 0.4% (compared to 0.2% regionally).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Warrnambool - North is 40. 25.7% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age in Warrnambool - North is 40 years, which is slightly below the Regional Vic. average of 43 but just above the national median of 38. Compared to the Regional Vic. average, there is a higher concentration of residents in the 25 - 34 age bracket (13.1% locally) and a lower representation of the 65 - 74 age group (10.7%). The 15 to 24 demographic increased its share of the population from 11.6% to 12.6% since the 2021 Census, while the 5 to 14 cohort declined from 13.3% to 11.8%.
Long-term projections for 2041 point to significant changes, with the 25 to 34 age group expected to expand by 1,405 people (46%) from 3,043 to 4,449, while the 15 to 24 age bracket is projected to grow by a modest 3%, adding 85 residents.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Warrnambool - North
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2026 this month all 21 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 868 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (22,405 at the 2021 Census → 23,182 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (217041479). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.