Warrnambool - North

Population growth drivers in Warrnambool - North are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Warrnambool - North's population is around 23,182 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 777 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,405. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,099 from the ABS as of June 2025 and an additional 868 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 371 persons per square kilometer. Warrnambool - North's growth rate of 3.5% since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA4 region (0.4%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, Warrnambool - North is forecasted to increase by 7,280 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 31.1% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Warrnambool - North among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Warrnambool North has seen approximately 185 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 929 homes. As of FY-26230 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.8 people per year have moved to the area for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction cost value of new properties is $261,000.

In FY-26, there has been $21.2 million in commercial approvals, suggesting steady commercial investment activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Warrnambool North has seen slightly more development, with 29.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. New development consists of 88.0% standalone homes and 12.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low-density nature.

There are approximately 139 people per approval in Warrnambool North, reflecting its low-density status. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Warrnambool North is expected to grow by 7,197 residents through to 2041. Building activity is currently keeping pace with growth projections, but buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Warrnambool - North has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 31stth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones are Wollaston Way Estate, AquaZone Redevelopment, Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, and Riverland Estate. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warrnambool - North demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Warrnambool North has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 1.9% as of December 2025. It has 11,564 residents in work, which is 1.8% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is similar to Regional Vic., at 61.0%.

According to Census responses, 9.8% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Retail trade has notable concentration with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 2.9%, compared to 7.5% regionally.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. In the 12 months prior, labour force decreased by 6.3% and employment declined by 6.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional Vic., where employment contracted by 0.6%, labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warrnambool North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Warrnambool - North SA2 has an income below the national average. The median income is $52,068 and the average income is $62,778. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, the current estimates for Warrnambool - North SA2 would be approximately $57,077 (median) and $68,817 (average) as of March 2026. The 2021 Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Warrnambool - North rank modestly, between the 32nd and 40th percentiles. Income brackets show that 32.2% of the population (7,464 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort represents 30.3%. After housing costs, 86.3% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Warrnambool - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Warrnambool - North, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.5% houses and 11.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warrnambool - North stood at 37.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.8% and rented ones at 27.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,451, exceeding Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure was $300, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Warrnambool - North's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warrnambool - North has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 69.4% of all households, including 28.1% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.6%, with lone person households at 27.8% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which matches the Regional Vic average.

Educational attainment in Warrnambool - North aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.7%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (27.2%). Educational participation is high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.3% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 99 active transport stops operating within Warrnambool - North. These stops are serviced by 7 individual routes, collectively providing 873 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 414 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions, only 9.8% of residents work from home. Service frequency averages 124 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 8 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warrnambool - North is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warrnambool North faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~11,683 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (9.2%) and asthma (9.0%), while 65.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic.. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 20.1% of residents aged 65 and over (4,671 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic., with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Warrnambool - North is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warrnambool-North had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 90.4% of its population being Australian citizens, 90.7% born in Australia, and 94.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 52.7% of Warrnambool-North's population, compared to 47.3% across Regional Victoria. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.1%), Australian (30.2%), and Irish (13.9%).

Notably, Scottish ancestry was overrepresented at 9.3%, Dutch at 1.4%, and Maori at 0.4%.

Warrnambool - North's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Warrnambool - North is 40 years, which is slightly below Regional Vic.'s average of 43 but above the Australian median of 38. In comparison with Regional Vic., the cohort aged 25-34 is notably over-represented at 13.1% locally, while those aged 65-74 are under-represented at 10.7%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 11.6% to 12.6%, while the cohort aged 5 to 14 has declined from 13.3% to 11.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Warrnambool - North, with the 25-34 age group projected to expand by 1,405 people (46%) from 3,043 to 4,449. The 15-24 age group is expected to grow modestly at 3%, adding only 85 residents.