Warrnambool - North

Population growth drivers in Warrnambool - North are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Warrnambool - North's population is around 24,502 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 2,097 people (9.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,405 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,917 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 802 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 392 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Warrnambool - North's 9.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (4.5%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 76.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase in the top quartile of regional areas nationally is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 7,554 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 24.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Warrnambool - North among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Warrnambool - North has seen around 185 new homes approved each year, with 929 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 148 so far in FY-26. At an average of just 0.8 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new homes are being built at an average value of $261,000. Additionally, $21.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Warrnambool - North has slightly more development (29.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. Recent construction comprises 88.0% detached dwellings and 12.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 139 people per dwelling approval, Warrnambool - North shows characteristics of a growth area.

Population forecasts indicate Warrnambool - North will gain 5,968 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers could encounter growing competition as population increases.

Warrnambool - North has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 17 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Wollaston Way Estate, AquaZone Redevelopment, Fairy Street Mixed-Use Development, and Riverland Estate, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warrnambool - North demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Warrnambool - North features a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of just 1.9%. As of December 2025, 11,564 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.8% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. Based on Census responses, a low 9.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a particular employment specialization in retail trade, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. On the other hand, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 2.9% of Warrnambool - North's workforce compared to 7.5% in Regional Vic.. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 6.3% alongside a 6.4% employment decline, resulting in the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6%, a labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Warrnambool - North. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Warrnambool - North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Warrnambool - North SA2 is lower than average on a national basis, with the median assessed at $52,068 while the average income stands at $62,778. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $56,364 (median) and $67,957 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Warrnambool - North, between the 32nd and 40th percentiles. The data shows 32.2% of the population (7,889 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen in the metropolitan region where 30.3% similarly occupy this range. After housing, 86.3% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Warrnambool - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Warrnambool - North, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 88.5% houses and 11.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Warrnambool - North slightly lagged that of Regional Vic. at 37.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (34.8%) or rented (27.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Regional Vic. average at $1,451, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $300, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Warrnambool - North's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warrnambool - North has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 69.4% of all households, comprising 28.1% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.6%, with lone person households at 27.8% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people matches the Regional Vic. average.

Educational attainment in Warrnambool - North aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (20.7%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 14.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 37.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (27.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 99 active transport stops operating within Warrnambool - North. These stops are serviced by 7 individual routes, collectively providing 873 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 414 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A relatively low 9.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 124 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 8 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warrnambool - North is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warrnambool - North faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~12,349 people). The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 9.2% and 9.0% of residents, respectively, while 65.5% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 19.5% of residents aged 65 and over (4,787 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic., with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Warrnambool - North is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warrnambool - North was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 90.4% of its population being citizens, 90.7% born in Australia, and 94.8% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Warrnambool - North is Christianity, which makes up 52.7% of the population, compared to 47.3% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Warrnambool - North are English, comprising 31.1% of the population, Australian, comprising 30.2% of the population, and Irish, comprising 13.9% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of other ethnic groups: Scottish is overrepresented at 9.3% in Warrnambool - North (vs 8.8% regionally), Dutch at 1.4% (vs 1.7%), and Maori at 0.4% (vs 0.2%).

Warrnambool - North's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The 40-year median age in Warrnambool - North is modestly under Regional Vic.'s average of 43 though slightly above the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Regional Vic. average, the 25 - 34 cohort is notably over-represented (13.9% locally), while 65 - 74 year-olds are under-represented (10.4%). Since the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 12.7% to 13.9% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 13.3% to 11.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Warrnambool - North. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, increasing by 1,312 people (39%) from 3,408 to 4,721. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 cohort is projected to decline by 72 people.