Rochester
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Rochester reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Rochester's population is approximately 3,738 as of November 2025. This represents a decrease of 278 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 4,016. The ABS estimated resident population in June 2024 was 3,729, with an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this figure. This results in a density ratio of 10.6 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest population numbers, Rochester is expected to increase by approximately 402 persons by 2041, representing a total increase of around 10.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Rochester, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Rochester has averaged approximately nine new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, 46 homes were approved, with an additional five approved so far in FY-26. The population decline in recent years suggests that new supply has likely been meeting demand, providing good choice for buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new properties is $314,000. In the current financial year, $4.0 million worth of commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's predominantly residential nature. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Rochester records about 63% of the building activity per person and ranks among the 48th percentile of areas assessed nationally. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing homes.

However, construction activity has intensified recently. The estimated count of 392 people per dwelling approval reflects the area's quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections indicate that Rochester is expected to add 377 residents by 2041. Building activity appears to be keeping pace with these growth projections, though buyers may experience increased competition as the population grows.

Rochester has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes or major projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could impact this area. Key projects include Bendigo and Echuca Line Upgrade, Shepparton Line Upgrade, Water and Sewer Network Program, and Regional Housing Fund (Victoria).

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The labour market in Rochester shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Rochester has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, notably in manufacturing and industry. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 1.7%.

Compared to Rest of Vic., Rochester's unemployment rate is lower by 2.1% (3.8%) but workforce participation is lower at 51.0%. Key industries for employment are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is particularly strong with an employment share 2.3 times the regional level. Conversely, public administration & safety has a lower representation at 2.7% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 6.5%.

Labour force levels decreased by 14.4% and employment declined by 15.0% in Rochester over the year to June 2025, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.7 percentage points. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rochester's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.5% over five years and 12.2% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Rochester was $44,982 and average income was $51,467. This is lower than national averages of $48,741 (median) and $60,693 (average) for Rest of Vic.. By September 2025, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 12.16%, median income in Rochester is estimated to be approximately $50,452 and average income $57,725. Census 2021 data indicates incomes in Rochester fall between the 11th and 13th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income brackets show 27.7% of Rochester's population earns between $400 - $799 annually, compared to metropolitan regions where 30.3% earn between $1,500 - $2,999. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 89.8% income retention, disposable income in Rochester ranks at the 17th percentile nationally.

Rochester is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Rochester's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.2% houses and 5.8% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.3% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rochester stood at 50.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.3% and rented ones at 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,122, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. The median weekly rent figure in Rochester was recorded as $213, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $250. Nationally, Rochester's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Rochester features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.2% of all households, including 22.8% couples with children, 33.3% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.8%, with lone person households at 30.0% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Rochester faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.7%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.2%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.3% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas at 8.8% and certificates at 29.5%. Educational participation is high, with 26.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.8% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education. Rochester's four schools have a combined enrollment of 583 students as of the latest data. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 964) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with three primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rochester has 23 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These include train stations and bus stops serviced by 13 individual routes. Collectively, these routes provide 148 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents located an average of 451 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 21 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Rochester is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Rochester faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low at approximately 46%, covering around 1,734 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.1% of residents) and mental health issues (9.5%). About 59.2% of residents report having no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of Vic's 62.2%. Rochester has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 29.8%, or 1,114 people, compared to Rest of Vic's 25.1%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Rochester perform better than those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Rochester placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Rochester's population, as per the 2016 Census, showed low cultural diversity with 91.1% being Australian citizens, 94.0% born in Australia, and 98.0% speaking English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 54.7%, compared to 53.0% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (35.4%), English (34.7%), and Irish (10.2%).

Notably, Scottish ancestry was slightly higher than regional averages at 8.0% versus 8.4%, Dutch at 1.2% versus 1.1%, and Macedonian at 0.1% versus 0.1%.

Rochester ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Rochester's median age is 50, which exceeds Rest of Vic.'s figure of 43 and is well above the national average of 38. The 65-74 age group comprises 15.6% of Rochester's population, higher than Rest of Vic.'s percentage and significantly above the national average of 9.4%. Following the 2021 Census, this age group has grown from 14.5% to 15.6% of the population. Conversely, the 5-14 age cohort has declined from 11.4% to 10.7%. Demographic modeling indicates that Rochester's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow strongly, increasing by 119 people (41%) from 293 to 413. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 75-84 and 5-14 cohorts.