Rochester
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Rochester reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Rochester's population was 4,016 in the 2021 Census. As of Aug 2025, it is around 3,727, a decrease of 289 people (7.2%). This decline reflects an estimated resident population of 3,723 as of June 2024 and an additional 9 validated new addresses since the Census date. The current density ratio is 10.6 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration was the primary driver of recent population growth in the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, the area is expected to increase by 402 persons to 2041, with an overall increase of 10.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Rochester, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Rochester has averaged approximately 9 new dwelling approvals annually. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, with 46 homes approved over the past five financial years between FY2021 and FY2025, and 2 so far in FY2026. The population has been declining in recent years, yet development activity has been adequate relative to this decline, which is positive for buyers. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $507,000.

In the current financial year, $4.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Rochester records about 63% of the building activity per person and ranks among the 48th percentile of areas assessed nationally, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established dwellings. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years. This is still under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and potential planning limitations.

All new construction consists of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 392 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Rochester will gain 388 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Rochester has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

No factor influences a region's performance more than modifications to local infrastructure, significant projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has pinpointed 0 projects that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects comprise Bendigo and Echuca Line Upgrade, Bendigo and Echuca Railway Line Upgrade, Shepparton Line Upgrade, and Water and Sewer Network Program. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Rochester demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Rochester has a balanced labor force with both white and blue collar jobs, prominently featuring manufacturing and industrial sectors. As of June 2025, its unemployment rate is 1.7%.

In comparison to the rest of Victoria (Rest of Vic.), Rochester's unemployment rate is 2.1% lower at 3.8%, but workforce participation lags behind, at 51.0% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries employing residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Notably, employment in agriculture, forestry & fishing is significantly higher than the regional average, being 2.3 times as much. Conversely, public administration & safety is under-represented, with only 2.7% of Rochester's workforce compared to Rest of Vic.'s 6.5%.

Local employment opportunities appear limited, indicated by Census data showing fewer working residents than expected based on population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labor force decreased by 14.4%, with a simultaneous 15.0% drop in employment, causing unemployment to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw milder declines: 0.9% employment decrease, 0.4% labor force decline, and a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment. Statewide in Victoria (VIC), from Sep-25 data, employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rochester's current employment mix suggests local growth could be approximately 5.5% over five years and 12.2% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population changes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows Rochester's median income was $44,982 and average income was $51,467. This is lower than national averages of $48,741 (median) and $60,693 (average). In Rest of Vic., median income was $48,741 and average income was $60,693. Based on a 10.11% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, estimated incomes in Rochester as of March 2025 would be approximately $49,530 (median) and $56,670 (average). Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Rochester fall between the 11th and 13th percentiles nationally. In Rochester, 27.7% of individuals have incomes between $400 - $799, differing from metropolitan regions where incomes predominantly lie within the $1,500 - $2,999 range at 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 89.8% income retention, total disposable income ranks at the 17th percentile nationally.

Rochester is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Rochester, as per the latest Census data, 94.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 5.8% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 90.3% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rochester stood at 50.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.3% and rented dwellings at 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,122, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. The median weekly rent in Rochester was $213, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $250. Nationally, Rochester's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,122 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Rochester features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.2% of all households, including 22.8% couples with children, 33.3% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.8%, with lone person households at 30.0% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Rochester faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.7%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.2%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.3% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 8.8% and certificates at 29.5%. Educational participation is high, with 26.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.8% in primary, 8.2% in secondary, and 1.8% in tertiary education. Rochester's four schools have a combined enrollment of 583 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 964) with balanced educational opportunities, served by three primary and one secondary school catering to distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Rochester shows that there are currently 23 active transport stops operating within the city. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services, with a total of 13 individual routes providing 148 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as moderate, with residents typically located approximately 451 meters away from their nearest transport stop.

On average, there are about 21 trips per day across all routes, which equates to around six weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Rochester is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Rochester faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 46%, covering about 1,729 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.1% of residents) and mental health issues (9.5%). Around 59.2% claim to be free from medical ailments, which is lower than the Rest of Vic's figure of 62.2%. Rochester has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 29.8%, with around 1,111 people falling into this age group, compared to Rest of Vic's 25.1%. Despite these challenges, health outcomes among seniors in the area perform better than those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Rochester placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Rochester has a cultural diversity profile below the average. As of 2016, 91.1% of its population are Australian citizens, with 94.0% born in Australia and 98.0% speaking English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 54.7%, compared to 53.0% across Victoria.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (35.4%), English (34.7%), and Irish (10.2%). Notably, Scottish ancestry is slightly higher in Rochester at 8.0% compared to the regional average of 8.4%. Dutch ancestry also has a slightly higher representation in Rochester at 1.2%, compared to 1.1% regionally. Macedonian ancestry remains relatively low in both areas, at 0.1%.

Rochester ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Rochester's median age is 50, which exceeds the Rest of Vic.'s figure of 43 and is well above the national average of 38. The 65-74 age group makes up 15.6% of Rochester's population, compared to Rest of Vic.'s figure and the national average of 9.4%. Following the Census conducted on 2021/08/10, this age group grew from 14.5% to 15.6% of the population. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort declined from 11.4% to 10.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Rochester's age profile. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow by 120 people, from 292 to 413, a 41% increase. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 75-84 and 5-14 cohorts.