Rochester

An assessment of population growth drivers in Rochester reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Rochester's population was 4,016 as of the 2021 Census. By Nov 2025, it decreased to around 3,738, a drop of 278 people (6.9%). This decrease is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 3,729 in June 2024 and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was 10.6 persons per square kilometer as of Nov 2025. Overseas migration primarily drove recent population growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made through weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, Rochester is expected to increase by 402 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 10.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Rochester, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Rochester averaged approximately 9 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years from FY21 to FY25, with a total of 46 homes approved during this period. In FY26 up until now, 8 dwellings have been approved. The population has declined in recent years, suggesting that the new supply has likely kept pace with demand, providing buyers with good choices.

The average construction cost value for new properties is $314,000. This financial year has seen $4.0 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Rochester records around 63% of the building activity per person. Nationally, it ranks among the 47th percentile of areas assessed, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing homes.

However, construction activity has intensified recently. This activity is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and suggesting possible planning constraints. Recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, maintaining Rochester's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 392 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show Rochester adding 377 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Rochester has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 26thth percentile nationally

No factors influence a region's performance more than modifications to local infrastructure, significant projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has pinpointed 0 projects that could potentially affect this area. Notable projects include Bendigo and Echuca Line Upgrade, Shepparton Line Upgrade, Water and Sewer Network Program, and Regional Housing Fund (Victoria). The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Rochester shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Rochester has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent, and the unemployment rate is 2.2%.

As of September 2025, 1,666 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.6% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Rochester is lower at 51.0%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Agriculture, forestry & fishing stands out with an employment share 2.3 times the regional level.

Public administration & safety is under-represented at 2.7% of Rochester's workforce compared to Rest of Vic.'s 6.5%. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 10.7%, and employment fell by 11.7%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts suggest growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but local projections vary based on industry-specific growth rates when applied to Rochester's employment mix.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Rochester SA2 has lower income levels compared to national averages. The median income is $44,982 and the average income stands at $51,467. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s figures where the median income is $48,741 and the average income is $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates as of September 2025 would be approximately $50,452 (median) and $57,725 (average). Census 2021 income data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Rochester fall between the 11th and 12th percentiles nationally. Income brackets show that 27.7% of the population (1,035 individuals) have incomes within the $400 - $799 range, differing from metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 30.3%. Housing costs are modest with 89.8% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 17th percentile nationally.

Rochester is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Rochester's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.2% houses and 5.8% other dwellings such as semi-detached, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.3% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rochester stood at 50.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.3% and rented ones at 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,122, significantly lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Rochester was recorded at $213, substantially below the national average of $375.

Rochester features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.2% of all households, including 22.8% couples with children, 33.3% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.8%, with lone person households at 30.0% and group households making up 2.8%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic average of 2.4.

Rochester faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.7%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.2%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.8%) and certificates (29.5%). Educational participation is high, with 26.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.8% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rochester operates 23 active public transport stops, including train and bus services. These stops are served by 13 routes offering a total of 148 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents located an average of 451 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 21 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Rochester is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Rochester faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. The rate of private health cover stands at approximately 46%, or about 1,734 people, which is lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (impacting 12.1% of residents) and mental health issues (9.5%), while 59.2% report having no medical ailments, compared to 62.2% in the rest of Victoria. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 29.8%, or about 1,114 people, compared to 25.1% in the rest of Victoria. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges despite performing better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Rochester placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Rochester's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 91.1% of its population being citizens, 94.0% born in Australia, and 98.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Rochester, making up 54.7% of people, compared to 53.0% across Rest of Vic.. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (35.4%), English (34.7%), and Irish (10.2%).

Notably, Scottish representation was higher at 8.0% in Rochester than the regional average of 8.4%, Dutch representation was slightly higher at 1.2% versus 1.1%, and Macedonian representation remained similar at 0.1%.

Rochester ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Rochester has a median age of 50, which is higher than the Rest of Vic's figure of 43 and well above the national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group makes up 15.6% of Rochester's population, compared to Rest of Vic's figure and above the national average of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, this age group has grown from 14.5% to 15.6% since the previous census. Meanwhile, the 5-14 cohort has declined from 11.4% to 10.7%. Demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Rochester's age profile by 2041. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow by 119 people (41%), from 293 to 413, while the 75-84 and 5-14 cohorts are projected to decline in population.