Mildura - North

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mildura - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Mildura - North's population is around 18,217 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 190 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,027. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 18,121 from ABS in June 2024 and an additional 88 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 725 persons per square kilometer. Mildura - North's growth of 1.1% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's growth of 1.0%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 89.6% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is expected for Australian non-metropolitan areas. Mildura - North is projected to expand by 3,902 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 20.9% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Mildura - North, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Mildura North averaged approximately 45 new dwelling approvals annually, with 226 homes approved between financial years FY21 to FY25. As of FY26, there have been 64 approvals. The average construction value for these dwellings is $274,000.

This region has seen a decline in population recently, suggesting that new supply has kept pace with demand, providing buyers with good choices. Additionally, $36.5 million worth of commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Mildura North shows significantly reduced construction levels, at 52.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. Nationally, Mildura North's level is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

New developments consist of 67.0% detached dwellings and 33.0% attached dwellings, offering a range of medium-density options across different price brackets. The area has an estimated 650 people per dwelling approval, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Mildura North is projected to add 3,805 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and driving price growth.

Mildura - North has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 21stth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 14 projects that may affect this region. Notable initiatives include Mildura Passenger Rail Return, Mildura Riverfront Redevelopment - Stage 2, Mildura CBD Revitalisation Project, and Big Housing Build - Social Housing Projects. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.4%, Mildura - North has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Mildura - North has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 3.4% as of September 2025. This is 0.4% lower than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

The labour force participation rate is somewhat below standard at 53.7%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area has a particular specialization in accommodation & food services, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, construction is under-represented at 7.5% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 10.4%.

The ratio of 0.7 workers per resident indicates above-norm local employment opportunities as at the Census. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Mildura - North's labour force decreased by 4.1%, with a 0.5% employment decline, leading to a 3.5 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s employment declined by 0.7% and labour force by 0.6%, with a marginal rise in unemployment rate. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows VIC's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mildura - North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The median taxpayer income in Mildura - North SA2 was $45,758 and the average was $53,689 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages; Rest of Vic., for instance, had a median income of $48,741 and an average income of $60,693. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median would be approximately $51,322 and the average $60,218, accounting for Wage Price Index growth of 12.16%. Census data indicates that incomes in Mildura - North fall between the 14th and 21st percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 28.1% (5,118 individuals) earning within the $1,500-$2,999 range, similar to surrounding regions at 30.3%. Housing affordability is severe, with only 84.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 15th percentile nationally.

Mildura - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Mildura - North, as per the latest Census, comprised 77.8% houses and 22.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 85.6% houses and 14.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mildura - North was at 29.7%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (26.7%) or rented (43.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,148, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $1,283. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $260 in Mildura - North, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $265. Nationally, Mildura - North's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Mildura - North features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 61.6 percent of all households, including 20.6 percent couples with children, 24.7 percent couples without children, and 14.9 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 38.4 percent, with lone person households at 33.9 percent and group households comprising 4.5 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Mildura - North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (26.4%). Educational participation is high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.4% in primary, 8.1% in secondary, and 2.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mildura - North has 141 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus stations. There are 29 different routes serving these stops, providing a total of 640 weekly passenger trips.

Residents have good access to transport, with an average distance of 255 meters to the nearest stop. The service frequency is 91 trips per day across all routes, which means each stop gets about 4 weekly trips on average.

Health performance in Mildura - North is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mildura - North faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data. Both younger and older age groups exhibit high prevalence rates for common health conditions.

Only approximately 47% of the total population (~8,561 people) has private health cover, which is lower than the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues affect 10.1% of residents, while asthma impacts 9.2%. Conversely, 63.6% report no medical ailments, compared to 65.1% in the rest of Victoria. The area has an 18.9% senior population (3,443 people), with seniors facing health challenges broadly comparable to those experienced by the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Mildura - North records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mildura-North, found to have cultural diversity above average, had 18.3% of its population born overseas and 16.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the main religion in Mildura-North, comprising 44.0% of people. Buddhism was overrepresented at 3.1%, compared to 2.1% across Rest of Vic..

The top three ancestry groups were English at 28.4%, Australian at 27.2%, and Other at 8.9%. Notably, Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 4.9% (vs regional 3.4%), Vietnamese at 0.9% (vs 0.5%), and German at 3.9% (vs 4.0%).

Mildura - North's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Mildura - North has a median age of 38, which is lower than the Rest of Vic figure of 43 but matches the national norm of 38. The age group of 25-34 shows strong representation in Mildura - North at 16.9%, compared to Rest of Vic., while the 65-74 cohort is less prevalent at 9.9%. According to the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 15.2% to 16.9% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 11.9% to 10.8%, and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 11.9% to 10.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Mildura - North's age profile will change significantly. The 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow by 32%, adding 978 people and reaching 4,061 from the current 3,082. The 15 to 24 group is expected to grow at a more modest rate of 1%, with an increase of 21 residents.