Mildura - North

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mildura - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Mildura - North's population is around 18,198 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 171 people (0.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,027 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 18,123 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 93 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 724 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Mildura - North's 0.9% growth since the census positions it within 0.6 percentage points of the SA4 region (1.5%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 89.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above-median population growth for Australian non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the area expected to expand by 3,902 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 21.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Mildura - North, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Mildura - North has averaged around 45 new dwelling approvals each year, with 226 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 69 so far in FY-26. With population declining over recent years, new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $274,000. Additionally, $36.5 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

When measured against the Rest of Vic., Mildura - North shows substantially reduced construction (52.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. This level is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. New development consists of 67.0% detached dwellings and 33.0% attached dwellings, showing an expanding range of medium-density options creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. The estimated count of 650 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Future projections show Mildura - North adding 3,824 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Mildura - North has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 38thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 14 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Mildura Riverfront Redevelopment - Stage 2, the Mildura CBD Revitalisation Project, the Mildura Passenger Rail Return, and Big Housing Build - Social Housing Projects, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Mildura - North demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Mildura - North has a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of just 2.8%, and 2.7% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,609 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.9% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (58.8% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%). Based on Census responses, a low 8.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area has particular employment specialization in accommodation & food, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. On the other hand, construction is under-represented, with only 7.5% of Mildura - North's workforce compared to 10.4% in Regional Vic.. The ratio of 0.7 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.7% and the labour force decreased by 2.1%, resulting in unemployment falling by 4.5 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional Vic., where employment contracted by 0.6%, the labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Mildura - North. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Mildura - North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The Mildura - North SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $46,928 and an average of $55,138 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is below the national average, contrasting with Regional Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $50,800 (median) and $59,687 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Mildura - North all fall between the 14th and 21st percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals the predominant cohort spans 28.1% of locals (5,113 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 30.3% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 15th percentile.

Mildura - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Mildura - North, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 77.8% houses and 22.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Mildura - North was lagging that of Regional Vic., at 29.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (26.7%) or rented (43.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional Vic. average at $1,148, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $260, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Mildura - North's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Mildura - North features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 61.6% of all households, comprising 20.6% couples with children, 24.7% couples without children, and 14.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 38.4%, with lone person households at 33.9% and group households comprising 4.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Mildura - North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (17.6%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (26.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 156 active transport stops operating within Mildura - North, comprising a mix of train and buses. These stops are serviced by 24 individual routes, collectively providing 588 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 250 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 92%, with 5% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A relatively low 8.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 84 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 3 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Mildura - North is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Mildura - North, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~8,625 people). This compares to 50.5% across Regional Vic. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 10.1 and 9.2% of residents, respectively, while 63.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 18.6% of residents aged 65 and over (3,384 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Mildura - North records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mildura - North was found to be above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 18.3% of its population born overseas and 16.2% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Mildura - North is Christianity, which makes up 44.0% of the people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Buddhism, which comprises 3.1% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Mildura - North are English, comprising 28.4% of the population, Australian, comprising 27.2% of the population, and Other, comprising 8.9% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is notably overrepresented at 4.9% of Mildura - North (vs 1.4% regionally), Vietnamese at 0.9% (vs 0.2%) and German at 3.9% (vs 3.5%).

Mildura - North's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

With a median age of 38, Mildura - North is notably under the Regional Vic. figure of 43 but is equivalent to the national norm of 38. The 25 - 34 age group shows strong representation at 17.4% compared to Regional Vic., whereas the 65 - 74 cohort is less prevalent at 9.9%. Following the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 15.2% to 17.4% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 11.6% to 12.8%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 11.9% to 10.4% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 11.9% to 10.5%. Demographic modeling suggests Mildura - North's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 28% (890 people), reaching 4,061 from 3,170. The 15 to 24 group displays more modest growth at 1%, adding only 27 residents.