Merbein

An assessment of population growth drivers in Merbein reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

By Feb 2026, Merbein's population is estimated at around 2,907. This reflects an increase of 137 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,770. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 2,728 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024, and additional 95 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 84 persons per square kilometer. Merbein's growth rate of 4.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (1.5%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends project an above median population growth nationally, with the suburb expected to expand by 476 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 10.2% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Merbein according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Merbein has averaged approximately 16 new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY2021 and FY2025, an estimated 82 homes were approved, with a further 15 approved so far in FY2026. On average, over these five years, only 0.1 people moved to the area for each dwelling built, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average value of new homes being built is $404,000, demonstrating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY2026, $3.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Merbein shows moderately higher new home approvals, with 16.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period.

This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. Recent construction comprises 94.0% detached houses and 6.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 172 people per approval, Merbein reflects a low density area. Population forecasts indicate that Merbein will gain approximately 297 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Merbein has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely impacting the area. Key projects include Lake Hawthorn Foreshore Development, Mildura Base Public Hospital Intensive Care Unit Expansion, Sunraysia Modernisation Project 2, and Big Housing Build - Social Housing Projects. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Merbein significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Merbein's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 1.8% in December 2025, lower than Regional Vic.'s 3.7%. Employment grew by an estimated 2.4% over the past year.

As of December 2025, 1,281 residents were employed, with a participation rate of 58.6%, below Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. Home-based workers constituted a low 7.3%. Key employment sectors are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and agriculture, forestry & fishing. Retail trade is particularly specialized, employing 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 1.7% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 4.7%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by the working population vs resident population count. Between December 2024 and 2025, employment levels increased by 2.4%, while labour force decreased by 2.4%, reducing unemployment by 4.6 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional Vic., where employment contracted by 0.6%, labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth varies significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Merbein's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.6% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Merbein had a median taxpayer income of $41,508 and an average income of $45,717. These figures are lower than the national averages of $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average) for Regional Vic. As of September 2025, estimated median and average incomes in Merbein would be approximately $44,932 and $49,489 respectively, based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census data places Merbein's household, family, and personal incomes between the 9th and 12th percentiles nationally. In Merbein, 29.4% of individuals (854 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income bracket, similar to the surrounding region at 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 87.1% income retention, total disposable income ranks at the 13th percentile nationally.

Merbein is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Merbein, as per the latest Census evaluation, 89.8% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 10.2% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments and other types. This is comparable to Regional Victoria's figures of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Merbein stood at 34.8%, with mortgaged properties at 43.1% and rented ones at 22.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,025, significantly lower than the Regional Victoria average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Merbein was recorded at $210, substantially below Regional Victoria's figure of $285 and the national average of $375. Nationally, mortgage repayments averaged $1,863.

Merbein features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.1% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 27.5% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 33.9%, with lone person households at 31.2% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Merbein fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 10.0%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.5%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.7%) and postgraduate qualifications (0.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (32.1%). Educational participation is high at 28.7%, with 11.3% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 1.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 1.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Merbein has 28 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that together offer 171 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is considered good, with residents typically located 248 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents in this primarily residential area commute outward. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 94%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, only 7.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 24 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately six weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Merbein is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Merbein faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Several health conditions impact both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 45% of the total population (around 1,309 people), compared to 50.5% in Regional Vic., and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.2% and 10.3% of residents respectively. However, 58.0% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Merbein has 24.0% of residents aged 65 and over (697 people), with senior health outcomes broadly aligning with national rankings.

The latest Census data sees Merbein placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Merbein's cultural diversity was found to be lower than average, with 88.4% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (93.1%), and speaking English only at home (96.7%). Christianity was the predominant religion in Merbein, comprising 43.2% of the population. The category 'Other' showed an overrepresentation in Merbein with 0.6%, compared to Regional Vic's 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (33.9%), Australian (31.9%), and Scottish (7.7%). Notably, Croatian (0.7% vs regional 0.4%) and Hungarian (0.3% vs regional 0.2%) were overrepresented, while German showed a slight overrepresentation at 4.3% compared to the regional average of 3.5%.

Merbein hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Merbein's median age is 43, matching Regional Vic.'s figure and exceeding the national average of 38 years. The age profile indicates that individuals aged 25-34 are prominent at 13.0%, while those aged 45-54 are relatively smaller at 9.8% compared to Regional Vic.. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 10.1% to 11.1%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 12.5% to 9.8%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant changes in Merbein's age structure. Notably, the 35-44 group is projected to grow by 27%, reaching 410 people from the current 322. Conversely, population declines are anticipated for the 65-74 and 15-24 cohorts.