Merbein

An assessment of population growth drivers in Merbein reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Merbein's population is estimated at around 2,905 people. This figure reflects an increase of 135 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 2,770 people in the suburb. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population as 2,765 based on examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 100 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 84 persons per square kilometer. Merbein's growth rate of 4.9% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (1.0%) and the SA3 area, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods for Merbein.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends project an above median population growth nationally, with Merbein expected to expand by 468 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 11.3% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Merbein according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Merbein has averaged approximately 17 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 85 homes were approved, with a further 9 approved so far in FY-26. Over these five financial years, the average population growth was around 0.1 people per year for each dwelling built, suggesting that supply has been meeting or exceeding demand, offering greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average construction value of new homes in Merbein is approximately $404,000, aligning with broader regional development trends. This financial year, $4.4 million worth of commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's primarily residential nature. Comparatively, Merbein shows moderately higher new home approvals than the Rest of Vic., with 20.0% more approvals per person over the five-year period.

This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values in the area. Recent construction comprises 94.0% detached houses and 6.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving Merbein's traditional low density character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With approximately 145 people per approval, Merbein reflects a low-density area. Population forecasts indicate that Merbein will gain around 328 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Merbein has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. A single project has been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Lake Hawthorn Foreshore Development, Mildura Base Public Hospital Intensive Care Unit Expansion, Mildura Passenger Rail Return, and Sunraysia Modernisation Project 2. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Merbein faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Merbein's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate, as of June 2025, is 4.3%, slightly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Merbein lags at 52.3% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and agriculture, forestry & fishing. Retail trade is particularly notable, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services are under-represented, at 1.7% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 4.7%.

The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Merbein's labour force decreased by 4.4%, while employment declined by 3.3%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s employment fell by 0.9%, labour force contracted by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Merbein's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 5.9% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Merbein's median income among taxpayers was $41,508 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $45,717 during the same period. These figures compare to $48,741 and $60,693 respectively for Rest of Vic. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $46,555 (median) and $51,276 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Merbein all fall between the 9th and 12th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 29.4% of residents (854 people) earn within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort represents 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 87.1% income retention, total disposable income ranks at just the 13th percentile nationally.

Merbein is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Merbein's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.8% houses and 10.2% other dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 85.6% houses and 14.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Merbein was at 34.8%, similar to Non-Metro Vic., with dwellings either mortgaged (43.1%) or rented (22.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,025, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,283 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Merbein was $210, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $265 and the national figure of $375.

Merbein features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.1% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 27.5% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.9%, with lone person households at 31.2% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Merbein fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 10.0%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.5%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.7%) and postgraduate qualifications (0.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (32.1%). Educational participation is high at 28.7%, comprising 11.3% in primary, 8.8% in secondary, and 1.7% in tertiary education.

The area has two schools serving 797 students: Our Lady of the Sacred Heart School and Merbein P-10 College. It functions as an education hub with 27.4 school places per 100 residents, above the regional average of 16.9.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Merbein has 27 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that together offer 166 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of the transport system is rated as good, with residents typically living within 248 meters of their nearest stop.

On average, there are 23 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately six weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Merbein is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Merbein faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Only approximately 45% (~1,308 people) have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.2%) and mental health issues (10.3%), while 58.0% report having no medical ailments, lower than Rest of Vic.'s 65.1%. Merbein has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 23.7% (688 people), compared to Rest of Vic.'s 19.2%. Health outcomes among seniors are challenging but generally align with the overall population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees Merbein placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Merbein's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.4% of its population being citizens and 93.1% born in Australia. English was spoken exclusively at home by 96.7%. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 43.2% of Merbein's population.

The most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, which constituted 0.6%, compared to 1.0% across Victoria (Rest of Vic.). In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups were English at 33.9%, Australian at 31.9%, and Scottish at 7.7%. Some ethnic groups showed notable divergences: Croatian was overrepresented at 0.7% in Merbein compared to 0.5% regionally, Hungarian at 0.3% versus 0.2%, and German at 4.3% versus 4.0%.

Merbein hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Merbein's median age is 44 years, comparable to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and higher than the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Merbein has a larger proportion of residents aged 85 and above (4.3%) but fewer individuals aged 45-54 (10.2%). Between the 2021 Census and the current time, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 9.1% to 9.8%, while the 45-54 age group has decreased from 12.5% to 10.2%. By the year 2041, Merbein's age composition is projected to change significantly. The 35-44 age group is expected to grow by 31%, reaching a population of 410 from its current level of 313. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 65-74 age cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.