Mildura

Population growth drivers in Mildura are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The Mildura statistical area's population was estimated at approximately 35,411 as of November 2025, reflecting a growth of 846 people since the 2021 Census. This increase corresponds to a 2.4% rise from the previous population figure of 34,565. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 34,941 in June 2024 and an additional 644 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 453 persons per square kilometer. Mildura's growth rate exceeded that of its SA4 region (1.3%), indicating it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 82% of overall population gains during recent periods.

Population projections for Mildura are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering these projections, the Mildura area is forecasted to experience significant population increase, with an expected growth of 8,667 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 23.1% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Mildura when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Mildura recorded around 167 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 836 homes. As of FY-26148 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.3 people moved to the area for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25. New construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth.

The average construction value of new properties is $408,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. This financial year has seen $74.6 million in commercial approvals, suggesting strong commercial development momentum. Mildura maintains similar construction rates per person relative to the rest of Victoria, supporting market stability in line with regional patterns.

Recent construction comprises 86.0% standalone homes and 14.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character. The location has approximately 255 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts indicate Mildura will gain 8,195 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Mildura has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include Mildura Riverfront Redevelopment - Stage 2, Mildura South Neighbourhood Activity Centre, Mildura CBD Revitalisation Project, and Whistlers Ridge Estate, Merbein. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Mildura exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Mildura has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. As of September 2025, its unemployment rate is 2.7%.

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data, 16,805 residents are employed, which is 1.0% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Mildura is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training.

However, construction is under-represented at 7.4% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 10.4%. Local employment opportunities exist but many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Mildura's labour force decreased by 4.1%, while employment declined by 1.3%, causing unemployment to fall by 2.7 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.7% and a labour force decline of 0.6%, with unemployment rising marginally. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mildura's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on June 30th, 2023, Mildura had a median income among taxpayers of $45,760 and an average income of $53,688. This is below the national average. In comparison, Rest of Vic had median and average incomes of $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since June 30th, 2023, current estimates for Mildura would be approximately $49,535 (median) and $58,117 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family, and personal incomes in Mildura all fall between the 19th and 25th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, the largest segment comprises 30.5% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (10,800 residents), aligning with regional levels where this cohort likewise represents 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Mildura, with only 84.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 21st percentile nationally.

Mildura is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Mildura, as per the latest Census evaluation, 81.0% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 19.0% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s figures of 85.6% houses and 14.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mildura stood at 31.4%, with mortgaged dwellings making up 30.3% and rented ones 38.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,300, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,283. The median weekly rent figure for Mildura was $280, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $265. Nationally, Mildura's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Mildura features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 65.1% of all households, including 23.6% couples with children, 26.4% couples without children, and 14.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 34.9%, with lone person households at 31.0% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Mildura fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (25.9%). Educational participation is high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.6% in primary, 7.9% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mildura's public transport analysis shows 294 active stops operating within the city. These include both train and bus services. There are 27 individual routes servicing these stops, collectively offering 821 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located 237 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 117 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately two weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mildura is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mildura faces significant health challenges, as indicated by data showing high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 48% (around 17,046 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 9.6% of residents and asthma impacting 8.9%. About 64.6% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of Vic's 65.1%. Mildura has 18.8% of its population aged 65 and over (6,657 people), with senior health outcomes presenting challenges broadly aligned with the general population's profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Mildura records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mildura's cultural diversity was found to be above average, with 18.6% of its population born overseas and 17.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Mildura, comprising 46.1% of its population. Islam, however, is overrepresented compared to the rest of Victoria, making up 3.3% of Mildura's population versus 2.3%.

The top three parental ancestry groups are English (27.9%), Australian (26.9%), and Other (8.8%). Notably, Italian, Samoan, and Australian Aboriginal ethnicities have higher representation in Mildura compared to regional averages: Italians at 5.4% versus 5.7%, Samoans at 0.3% versus 0.2%, and Australian Aborigines at 4.1% versus 3.4%.

Mildura's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Mildura's median age is 38, which is lower than the Rest of Vic.'s figure of 43 but matches the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 16.0% of Mildura's population, higher than the Rest of Vic., while the 65-74 cohort comprises 9.6%. Post-2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group grew from 11.8% to 13.2%, and the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 14.7% to 16.0%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort decreased from 11.8% to 10.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Mildura's age profile. The 25-34 group is expected to grow by 35%, adding 1,980 people and reaching a total of 7,646 from the current 5,665. The 55-64 group will see more modest growth of 1%, with an increase of just 20 residents.