Mildura

Population growth drivers in Mildura are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Mildura is around 35,500, reflecting a growth of 935 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 34,565. This increase was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 34,941 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and additional validation of 700 new addresses since the Census date. The population density is approximately 454 persons per square kilometer. Mildura's growth rate of 2.7% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's 1.5%, indicating it as a growth leader in the area. Overseas migration contributed around 82.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Mildura is forecasted to have a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australia's regional areas, with an expected growth of 8,659 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 22.8% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Mildura when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Mildura recorded approximately 167 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 836 homes. As of FY26158 approvals have been granted. On average, 0.3 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating new construction is meeting or exceeding demand. The average expected construction cost value per property was $408,000 during this period.

In FY26, there have been $74.6 million in commercial approvals, suggesting significant commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Mildura maintains similar construction rates per capita, contributing to market stability aligned with regional trends. Recent construction comprises 86.0% standalone homes and 14.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes.

The region has approximately 255 people per dwelling approval, reflecting a low-density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Mildura is projected to gain 8,100 residents by 2041. If current construction levels continue, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Mildura has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Twenty-one infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Notable projects include Mildura Riverfront Redevelopment - Stage 2, Mildura South Neighbourhood Activity Centre, Mildura CBD Revitalisation Project, and Whistlers Ridge Estate, Merbein.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Mildura demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Mildura has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.5%. As of December 2025, 16,936 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 1.4% lower than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation was similar to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. According to Census responses, 8.5% of residents worked from home in Mildura. The dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training, while construction was under-represented at 7.4% compared to Regional Vic.'s 10.4%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.5%, and the labour force decreased by 2.1%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate of 3.5 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.6% and an unemployment drop of 0.1 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mildura's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localized population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released in financial year 2023, Mildura had a median income among taxpayers of $45,760. The average income stood at $53,688. Both figures were below the national averages of $50,954 and $62,728 for Regional Vic., respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates suggest median income would be approximately $49,535 and average income around $58,117 by September 2025. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Mildura all fall between the 19th and 25th percentiles nationally. The largest income segment comprises 30.5% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, with 10,827 residents falling into this category, aligning with regional levels where this cohort represents 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Mildura, with only 84.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 21st percentile nationally.

Mildura is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Mildura, as per the latest Census, consists of 81.0% houses and 19.0% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mildura stands at 31.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.3% and rented ones at 38.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment is $1,300, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Mildura is $280, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Mildura's mortgage repayments are significantly lower at $1,300 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Mildura features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 65.1% of all households, comprising 23.6% couples with children, 26.4% couples without children, and 14.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 34.9%, with lone person households at 31.0% and group households comprising 3.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, matching the Regional Vic. average.

Educational outcomes in Mildura fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.3% and certificates at 25.9%. Educational participation is high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.6% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mildura has 294 active public transport stops, serving a mix of train and bus services. These stops are covered by 27 different routes, offering a total of 821 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 237 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from Mildura, with cars being the primary mode of transport at 94%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.3, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 8.5% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 117 trips per day, equating to approximately two weekly trips per stop. The map accompanying this data shows the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Mildura is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mildura faces substantial health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (~17,089 people), compared to Regional Vic.'s 50.5% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (9.6%) and asthma (8.9%), with 64.6% reporting no medical ailments, compared to Regional Vic.'s 63.4%. Working-age population faces elevated chronic condition rates. 18.7% of residents are aged 65 and over (6,638 people), lower than Regional Vic.'s 23.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with national rankings.

In terms of cultural diversity, Mildura records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mildura's population shows cultural diversity with 18.6% born overseas and 17.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 46.1%. Islam is overrepresented at 3.3%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (27.9%), Australian (26.9%), and Other (8.8%). Italian ethnicity is notably higher at 5.4% than the regional average of 2.9%. Samoan ethnicity is also higher at 0.3%, compared to 0.1% regionally, and Australian Aboriginal is overrepresented at 4.1% versus Regional Vic.'s 1.4%.

Mildura's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Mildura's median age is 38, which is below Regional Vic.'s figure of 43 but matches the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group constitutes 16.6% of Mildura's population, higher than Regional Vic., while the 65-74 cohort makes up 9.6%. According to the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group has increased from 11.8% to 13.8%, and the 25-34 cohort has risen from 14.7% to 16.6%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 11.8% to 10.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling predicts significant changes in Mildura's age profile. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 30%, adding 1,756 people to reach a total of 7,649 from the current 5,893. The 55-64 cohort is expected to grow by 2%, adding 96 residents.