Upper Swan

Upper Swan is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Analyzing ABS updates for the region alongside new addresses verified by AreaSearch since the Census, the suburb of Upper Swan has a population estimated at approximately 2,267 as of May 2026. This represents a rise of 1,718 people (312.9%) from the 2021 Census, when 549 people were counted. This variation is calculated from a resident population of 2,178, which AreaSearch estimated after evaluating the ABS June 2025 ERP release, combined with an extra 733 verified new addresses recorded after the Census date. With this population level, the density ratio stands at 111 persons per square kilometer, indicating plenty of room per resident and capacity for upcoming expansion. The 312.9% expansion in the suburb of Upper Swan since the 2021 Census outpaced the national average (9.3%) as well as state trends, positioning it as a leading growth area. This demographic expansion was chiefly propelled by interstate migration, which accounted for roughly 59.0% of the total population gains in recent times, though natural increase and overseas migration also registered positive gains.

AreaSearch adopts the ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 region, which were published in 2024 using 2022 as the baseline. For SA2 regions lacking this data, and to model growth past 2032, growth rates by age cohort from the 2023 Greater Capital Region projections (using 2022 data) are applied. Factoring in these demographic shifts, the suburb of Upper Swan is expected to see above-median expansion compared to other areas studied by AreaSearch, climbing by 292 persons to 2041 based on compiled SA2 data, which represents an overall growth of 8.9% over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Upper Swan was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch's evaluation of ABS building approvals allocated from statistical areas shows that Upper Swan averages about 154 annual dwelling approvals, totaling 770 residential approvals over the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, and 114 in FY-26 so far. An average of 2.1 new residents per year per approved dwelling over the 5 financial years between FY-21 and FY-25 points to strong demand supporting property values. Approved residential projects have an average construction cost of $391,000, showing that developers are targeting the high-end market with premium housing. Meanwhile, commercial approvals reached $2.5 million this financial year, showing a quiet commercial construction sector.

Per capita development volume in Upper Swan is 1357.0% higher than the Greater Perth average, offering buyers plenty of options despite a recent cooling in approval numbers. This level of activity is significantly higher than the national benchmark, demonstrating robust developer interest. The construction pipeline consists of 99.0% detached houses and 1.0% semi-detached or attached options, maintaining the low-density landscape and catering to buyers seeking space. An average of roughly 13 people per approval characterizes this as a growing area.

Projections indicate that Upper Swan will add 203 residents by 2041, measured from the most recent quarterly estimate by AreaSearch. Existing building trends suggest housing supply will comfortably satisfy demand, which should benefit buyers and potentially support growth rates that outpace current expectations.

Upper Swan has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects, major developments, and urban planning changes are key drivers of regional growth. AreaSearch has identified 2 projects that are expected to influence the locality. Key initiatives include the North Ellenbrook (West) District Structure Plan, Vale Estate (Aveley), the Tonkin Highway North Ellenbrook Interchange, and the North Ellenbrook (East) District Structure Plan, with the most relevant ones detailed in the list below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Upper Swan exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

The local workforce is evenly divided between blue-collar and white-collar occupations, with construction workers particularly well-represented, an unemployment rate of just 3.4%, and an estimated job growth of 21.3% over the past year based on compiled statistical area data. In March 2026, 1,275 residents were employed, while the local unemployment rate was 0.8% lower than the Greater Perth average of 4.2%. Participation in the labor force is typical, at 74.1% compared to 70.2% in Greater Perth. Census records indicate that a modest 11.4% of workers operated from home, though this figure was likely influenced by pandemic restrictions.

Most working residents are employed in the fields of education & training, construction, or health care & social assistance. Local employment in education & training is highly concentrated, running at 1.4 times the regional benchmark. Conversely, professional & technical roles account for only 2.9% of the workforce, compared to 8.2% across Greater Perth. The locality serves as an employment center, containing 1.5 jobs for every resident at the time of the Census, meaning it draws in commuters from surrounding areas.

Analysis of SALM and ABS data, aggregated from broader statistical areas, indicates that over the 12-month period, employment rose by 21.3% and the labour force grew by 21.8%, leading to an increase of 0.4 percentage points in the unemployment rate. By comparison, Greater Perth recorded employment growth of 2.0% and labour force growth of 2.5%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 provide additional insight into potential future demand within Upper Swan. These projections, which cover five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Upper Swan's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

ATO records for the 2023 financial year show that incomes in the suburb of Upper Swan are below the national benchmark, with a median of $41,794 and an average of $50,061. This is lower than the Greater Perth median of $60,748 and average of $80,248. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% since the 2023 financial year, current estimates point to a median of roughly $46,362 and an average of $55,533 as of March 2026. According to the Census, household, family, and individual incomes are modest, falling between the 20th and 34th percentiles. The $800 - 1,499 bracket contains 29.5% of the population (668 people), whereas the $1,500 - 2,999 range is the most common regionally at 32.0%. After housing costs, residents retain 86.5% of their income for other living expenses, and the area sits in the 6th decile of the SEIFA income index.

Upper Swan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

At the time of the Census, the local housing mix consisted of 98.6% separate houses and 1.4% alternative dwellings like apartments or townhouses, compared to 77.8% separate houses and 22.1% alternative dwellings across metro Perth. Homeownership rates were high, with 51.0% of homes owned outright, while the remaining properties were mortgaged (38.9%) or rented (10.1%). The median mortgage payment of $1,885 per month was below the Perth metro average of $1,907, and the median rent was $300 per week compared to the metro average of $350. Nationally, local mortgage payments exceed the Australian median of $1,863, while weekly rents remain well below the national median of $375.

Upper Swan has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up 74.3% of local households, consisting of couples with children (23.8%), couples without children (37.4%), and single parents (10.7%). The remaining 25.7% are non-family households, which are mostly lone persons (24.8%) along with group households (1.5%). The median household size is 2.5 occupants, slightly smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Upper Swan fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

Educational attainment levels show some challenges, as the university qualification rate of 13.0% is much lower than the national figure of 30.4%. This highlights a clear opportunity for targeted education programs. Bachelor degrees are the most common higher education qualification at 8.7%, with postgraduate qualifications at 2.8% and graduate diplomas at 1.5%. Vocational skills are strong, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding trade qualifications, consisting of advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (27.7%).

In total, 19.3% of the local population is enrolled in an educational institution. This includes 8.1% attending high school, 5.8% attending primary school, and 2.1% in tertiary studies.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

There are 22 active public transit stops in Upper Swan, consisting of various bus options. These stops are served by 4 distinct routes that provide a total of 274 passenger trips each week. Transit access is very convenient, with residents living an average of 165 meters from their nearest stop. The suburb is primarily residential, leading most workers to commute elsewhere; private cars are the primary mode of transport at 94%, while 5% of residents walk. Households own an average of 2.3 vehicles, which is higher than the regional average. A low 11.4% of residents worked from home at the time of the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-related working arrangements.

Bus routes provide an average of 39 trips per day across the network, which averages out to approximately 12 weekly trips per transit stop.

Upper Swan's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health indicators for the local population are generally positive, with mortality rates and medical conditions aligning closely with national averages across all age brackets. Private health insurance is uncommon, held by approximately 47% of residents (~1,067 people), which is lower than the Greater Perth average of 59.0% and the national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent health issues, affecting 11.0% and 10.2% of residents respectively. Conversely, 59.5% of the population reported no long-term health conditions, compared to 71.9% in Greater Perth. There are notable chronic health challenges among the working-age population. Residents aged 65 and older make up 19.1% of the community (432 people), compared to 16.1% in Greater Perth, and seniors in the area enjoy particularly strong health outcomes relative to national averages.

Upper Swan ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cultural diversity metrics are below average, with 79.6% of residents born in Australia, 89.1% holding citizenship, and 97.2% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the primary religion, followed by 47.8% of the local population, compared to 45.0% across Greater Perth.

The most common ancestries are English at 36.3% (well above the regional average of 28.0%), Australian at 27.5% (above the regional average of 21.2%), and Scottish at 7.5%. Other demographic patterns show that Croatian heritage is overrepresented at 2.8% (compared to 0.8% regionally), Dutch heritage at 2.2% (compared to 1.5%), and Welsh heritage at 0.8% (compared to 0.7%).

Upper Swan ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age of 48 years in the suburb of Upper Swan is higher than the Greater Perth average of 37 and the national average of 38. Residents aged 65 - 74 represent a large share of the community at 11.6%, while the 25 - 34 age bracket is small (9.7%) compared to the wider city. The median age has decreased by 4.4 years since 2021, falling to 48 from 52. Notable changes include the 35 to 44 age cohort growing from 8.3% to 13.5% of the population, and the 5 to 14 cohort increasing from 8.7% to 13.1%. In contrast, the 65 to 74 group fell from 21.3% to 11.6% and the 75 to 84 cohort declined from 9.1% to 5.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 show significant demographic changes, with the 65 to 74 bracket projected to grow by 32%, adding 84 residents to reach 347. Senior citizens aged 65 and older will account for 68% of the area's expected growth, while the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are projected to contract.