Upper Swan

An assessment of population growth drivers in Upper Swan reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, the estimated population of Upper Swan as of February 2026 is around 1,818. This reflects a significant increase from the 2021 Census figure of 549 people, marking a growth of 1,269 individuals (231.1%). AreaSearch's estimation of resident population in June 2024 was 1,711, following examination of ABS ERP data release and validation of 643 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 89 persons per square kilometer. Upper Swan's growth rate exceeded both national (9.9%) and state averages between 2021 and February 2026, with interstate migration contributing approximately 59% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data and to estimate growth post-2032, AreaSearch utilises ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Projected demographic shifts indicate significant population increase for Upper Swan, with an expected rise of 318 persons by 2041, reflecting a decrease of 44.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Upper Swan among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Upper Swan averaged approximately 136 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY21 and FY25, around 682 homes were approved, with an additional 65 approved in FY26 so far. The average population growth per dwelling built over these years was 0.2 people.

This suggests that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing buyers with more options and potentially driving population growth beyond current expectations. The average expected construction cost of dwellings is $391,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment. In FY26, there have been $2.5 million in commercial approvals. Compared to Greater Perth, Upper Swan has 1723.0% more development activity per person. This high level of activity reflects strong developer confidence and offers buyers ample choice.

Recent construction comprises 98.0% detached houses and 2.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. There are approximately 5 people per dwelling approval in Upper Swan, indicating an expanding market. Despite this, population is expected to remain stable or decline, potentially reducing pressure on housing and creating opportunities for buyers.

Upper Swan has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

The performance of an area can greatly influenced by changes in local infrastructure projects and planning initiatives. Two such projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include the North Ellenbrook (West) District Structure Plan, Vale Estate (Aveley), Tonkin Highway North Ellenbrook Interchange, and North Ellenbrook (East) District Structure Plan. The following list details those likely to be most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Upper Swan remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Upper Swan's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with construction being prominent. The unemployment rate is 4.2%, and employment has grown by 1.1% in the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of September 2025365 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.2% higher than Greater Perth's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation is significantly lower at 26.4%, compared to Greater Perth's 71.6%. Census data shows that only 11.4% of residents work from home, with Covid-19 lockdown impacts considered. Employment is concentrated in education & training, construction, and health care & social assistance sectors. Notably, education & training employment levels are at 1.4 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services employ only 2.9% of local workers, below Greater Perth's 8.2%. There are 1.5 workers for every resident, indicating Upper Swan functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 1.1%, while labour force grew by 2.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Perth experienced employment growth of 2.9% and labour force growth of 3.0%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Upper Swan's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.3% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that income in Upper Swan is below the national average. The median income is $41,794 and the average income stands at $50,061. This contrasts with Greater Perth's figures of a median income of $60,748 and an average income of $80,248. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from financial year ending June 2023 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $45,815 (median) and $54,877 (average). Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Upper Swan rank modestly, between the 20th and 34th percentiles. Income analysis shows that 29.5% of the population (536 individuals) fall within the $800 - $1,499 income range, contrasting with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 32.0%. After housing costs, 86.5% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Upper Swan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Upper Swan dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 98.6% houses and 1.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Perth metro's 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Upper Swan stood at 51.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.9% and rented ones at 10.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,885, lower than Perth metro's average of $1,907. Median weekly rent in Upper Swan was $300, compared to Perth metro's $350. Nationally, Upper Swan's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,885 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $300 versus the national figure of $375.

Upper Swan has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.3% of all households, including 23.8% couples with children, 37.4% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.7%, with lone person households at 24.8% and group households comprising 1.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Upper Swan fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.0%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (27.7%).

School and university attendance comprises 19.3% of the community, including 8.1% in secondary education, 5.8% in primary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Upper Swan has 22 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that together facilitate 274 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these stops is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 165 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 94%, while walking accounts for 5%. On average, there are 2.3 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 11.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 39 trips per day across all routes, translating to roughly 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Upper Swan is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Upper Swan demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts show low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (around 855 people), compared to 59.0% across Greater Perth, with a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.0 and 10.2% of residents respectively. A total of 59.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. As of the latest data (May 2021), the area has 32.4% of residents aged 65 and over (589 people), which is higher than the 16.3% in Greater Perth. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Upper Swan ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Upper Swan's population shows lower cultural diversity, with 79.6% born in Australia, 89.1% being citizens, and 97.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 47.8%, compared to Greater Perth's 45.0%. The top three ancestry groups are English (36.3%), Australian (27.5%), and Scottish (7.5%).

Notably, Croatian (2.8%) and Dutch (2.2%) populations are higher than regional averages of 0.8% and 1.5%, respectively, while Welsh is slightly higher at 0.8%.

Upper Swan ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Upper Swan's median age is 51 years, which is notably higher than Greater Perth's median age of 37 years and considerably older than the national norm of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Perth average, the 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in Upper Swan at 20.4%, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 5.4%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 85+ age group has grown from 1.1% to 2.8% of the population, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 10.2% to 11.4%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 16.5% to 13.8%, and the 5-14 group dropped from 8.7% to 7.1%. Demographic modeling suggests that Upper Swan's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 85+ age cohort is projected to expand notably, increasing by 4 people (8%) from 50 to 55. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are projected to account for 100% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 75-84 cohorts.