The Vines

The Vines lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Feb 2026, The Vines' population is estimated at around 6,681, reflecting a 14.2% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 5,848 people. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 6,280 residents following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, along with validation of 22 new addresses since the Census date. The population density is approximately 1,034 persons per square kilometer, aligning with averages across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Vines' growth rate exceeded the national average (9.9%), making it a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed about 59.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers being positive factors. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 estimations, AreaSearch utilises growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population trends forecast a significant increase in the top quartile of statistical areas across the nation. The suburb is expected to increase by 1,991 persons to reach 8,672 by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 36.3% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within The Vines when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows The Vines had approximately 17 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling about 85 homes. So far in FY26, 21 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 18.2 new residents arrived per year for each dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25, indicating demand outstripping supply. New homes are built at an average cost of $391,000, targeting the premium market segment.

This financial year has seen $74,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Perth, The Vines has significantly less development activity, 80.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes, though recent periods have shown increased activity. Nationally, this activity is also below average, suggesting possible planning constraints. Recent building activity consists solely of standalone homes, maintaining The Vines' suburban identity with a concentration of family homes.

With around 275 people per dwelling approval, the area exhibits signs of a developing market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, The Vines is projected to grow by 2,428 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

The Vines has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 35thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified two projects that could significantly impact the area due to changes in local infrastructure. These key projects are: North Ellenbrook (West) District Structure Plan, Village 6 Malvern Springs Development Plan, Ellenbrook Railway Station, and North Ellenbrook (East) District Structure Plan. The following list details those most likely to have a notable influence.

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The labour market in The Vines shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

The Vines has a skilled workforce with strong representation from manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.7% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.3%. As of September 2025, 4,245 residents were employed, below Greater Perth's rate of 4.0%, but with a higher workforce participation at 87.1%.

Only 10.4% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 impacts should be considered. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Mining is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented at 10.7% compared to Greater Perth's 14.8%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 2.3%, labour force by 2.9%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.6 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to The Vines' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's data for financial year ending June 2023 shows median income in The Vines suburb was $63,040 and average income was $75,510. In Greater Perth, median income was $60,748 with an average of $80,248. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $69,104 (median) and $82,774 (average), based on a 9.62% Wage Price Index growth since June 2023. From the 2021 Census, The Vines' household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 78th and 91st percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 32.6% of residents earning $1,500 - 2,999 per year. In broader trends, 32.0% fall within this range. Strong earnings are evident with 41.6% of households having weekly incomes exceeding $3,000. Housing consumes 14.8% of income and residents rank in the 91st percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

The Vines is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The Vines' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.1% houses and 4.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Perth metro's 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in The Vines was at 26.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 63.4% and rented ones at 10.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,300, higher than Perth metro's average of $1,907. Median weekly rent in The Vines was $430, compared to Perth metro's $350. Nationally, The Vines' mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,300 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

The Vines features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 87.5% of all households, including 48.4% couples with children, 31.5% couples without children, and 6.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 12.5%, with lone person households at 11.4% and group households comprising 1.1%. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is larger than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

The Vines demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in The Vines trail regional benchmarks, with 21.0% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to the national average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (27.8%). Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (11.9%), secondary education (10.5%), and tertiary education (4.2%).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The Vines has three operational public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops offer one route collectively serving 476 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is limited, with residents typically located 682 meters from the nearest stop. Most commuters travel outwards due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 89%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 2.1, higher than the regional average.

Only 10.4% of residents work from home (2021 Census). Daily service frequency averages 68 trips across all routes, equating to around 158 weekly trips per stop.

The Vines's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across The Vines, as assessed by AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, indicating very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Approximately 57% (~3,820 people) of the total population has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.6 and 6.5% of residents respectively, while 74.5% claim to be completely free of medical ailments compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. Working-age residents display low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 14.3% (955 people) of residents aged 65 and over, which is lower than the 16.3% in Greater Perth. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, largely aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in The Vines was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

The Vines was found to have a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 12.0% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 35.9% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in The Vines, comprising 52.0% of its population. However, Judaism is notably overrepresented, making up 0.1% compared to 0.3% across Greater Perth.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (32.6%), Australian (22.2%), and Other (9.2%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences: South African at 1.8% (vs regional 1.0%), Welsh at 1.0% (vs 0.7%), and New Zealand at 1.4% (vs 0.8%).

The Vines's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in The Vines is 39 years, which is slightly higher than Greater Perth's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Perth, the 55-64 age cohort is notably higher at 14.1% locally, while the 25-34 age group is lower at 7.8%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 15-24 age group has grown from 13.0% to 14.5%, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 3.5% to 4.7%. Conversely, the 0-4 age group has declined from 5.9% to 4.1%, and the 25-34 group has dropped from 9.1% to 7.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in The Vines, with the 55-64 age group expected to grow by 48% (adding 453 people), reaching a total of 1,396 from the current 942.