The Vines

The Vines lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Analysis of ABS demographic updates and post-Census residential addresses verified by AreaSearch indicates that the population of the suburb of The Vines is approximately 6,766 as of May 2026. Compared to the 2021 Census, which counted 5,848 residents, the population has expanded by 918 people (15.7%). This growth is calculated from the June 2025 ABS ERP data release, which estimated 6,459 inhabitants, combined with an additional 22 validated new addresses. The resulting density stands at 1,047 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with standard metrics recorded by AreaSearch. The suburb of The Vines recorded a 15.7% rate of expansion that outpaced the national average (9.3%) and the state benchmark, establishing the area as a regional growth leader. The primary driver of this population growth was interstate migration, which accounted for approximately 59.0% of the gains, though natural growth and overseas migration also contributed positively.

For SA2 areas, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections published in 2024, starting with 2022 as the base year. In cases where SA2 data is unavailable, or to project growth beyond 2032, growth rates by age cohort from the 2023 ABS Greater Capital Region projections (utilising 2022 data) are applied. According to aggregate SA2 projections, a substantial population rise is expected within top-quartile statistical areas across the country, with the suburb of The Vines projected to grow by 1,718 persons by 2041, representing a total expansion of 20.9% over the 16 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within The Vines when compared nationally

ABS building approval statistics mapped to the area show that the suburb of The Vines averages about 11 annual residential approvals, totaling 59 new homes over the last 5 financial years. In the current FY-26 period, 41 approvals have been logged so far. With an average of 9.5 new residents for every finished home between FY-21 and FY-25, demand remains well ahead of supply. This mismatch typically drives up prices and intensifies buyer competition, while the average construction value of $391,000 indicates that developers are focusing on upmarket, premium properties. Additionally, $74,000 in commercial approvals have been registered during this financial year, pointing to a heavily residential focus.

Residential building activity in the suburb of The Vines is substantially lower than the Greater Perth average, sitting 85.0% below the regional per capita figure. Although construction has picked up lately, the low rate of new supply generally bolsters the value of existing dwellings. Activity levels also sit below the national average, pointing to local planning limits and a mature market. Furthermore, all recent building permits were for detached houses, which preserves the traditional low-density suburban aesthetic favored by families. There are approximately 345 people per dwelling approval, indicating capacity for future development.

Based on the latest quarterly calculations from AreaSearch, the suburb of The Vines is projected to add 1,411 residents by 2041. Should current construction rates persist, housing supply is unlikely to match this influx, which may intensify buyer competition and support upward price pressure.

The Vines has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 33rdth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects and planning changes have a significant influence on property market dynamics. AreaSearch has identified 2 projects expected to impact the region. The list of relevant projects includes the North Ellenbrook (West) District Structure Plan, the Village 6 Malvern Springs Development Plan, the Ellenbrook Railway Station, and the Tonkin Highway North Ellenbrook Interchange.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The Vines ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Workforce data from AreaSearch shows that the suburb of The Vines possesses a highly skilled labor force, with strong representation in industrial and manufacturing fields. The unemployment rate is low at 2.6%, and employment levels have remained stable over the year leading up to March 2026, when 3,709 residents were employed. The local jobless rate is 1.6% lower than the Greater Perth rate of 4.2%, while the participation rate is relatively typical at 72.9% compared to the capital city average of 70.2%. Census records show that a modest 10.4% of working residents worked from home, though this figure was likely influenced by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

The primary employment sectors for residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Mining stands out as a local specialty, with a workforce share 1.4 times higher than the regional average. Conversely, health care & social assistance is underrepresented locally, employing only 10.7% of the workforce compared to 14.8% across Greater Perth. The discrepancy between the local working population and resident workers indicates that this predominantly residential community offers limited local job opportunities.

Employment levels rose by 0.1% and the labour force grew by 0.2% from March 2026, leading to a 0.1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. Greater Perth saw stronger gains, with employment up 2.0% and the labour force up 2.5%, resulting in a 0.4 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 provide additional context for future demand in The Vines. These five and ten-year projections were aligned with the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. National employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though sector-specific growth varies considerably. When these industry projections are applied to The Vines's employment mix, local employment is expected to grow by 5.8% over five years and 12.4% over ten years. This calculation uses a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not incorporate localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Postcode-level ATO statistics for financial year 2023 indicate that incomes in the suburb of The Vines are highly elevated compared to the national average, with a median of $63,040 and an average of $75,510. This is in contrast to the Greater Perth figures of a median income of $60,748 and an average income of $80,248. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be around $69,930 (median) and $83,763 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and individual incomes all rank highly, placing between the 78th and 91st percentiles nationally. Regarding distribution, 32.6% of residents (2,205 individuals) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, mirroring the 32.0% share seen across the broader region. Local economic strength is highlighted by the 41.6% of households with weekly earnings over $3,000, supporting strong consumer activity. Mortgage and rent payments consume 14.8% of income, while high earnings place residents in the 91st percentile for disposable income and the SEIFA index ranks the area in the 8th decile.

The Vines is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

According to the last Census, the housing mix in the suburb of The Vines consisted of 95.1% standalone houses and 4.9% other dwellings like townhouses and apartments, compared to 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings in metropolitan Perth. Home ownership rates in the suburb of The Vines lagged behind the metropolitan average, sitting at 26.2%, with the remaining properties occupied by mortgagors (63.4%) or renters (10.4%). The median monthly mortgage payment was notably high at $2,300, compared to the metropolitan Perth average of $1,907 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent of $430 was also considerably higher than the Perth metropolitan figure of $350 and the Australian average of $375.

The Vines features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households make up the vast majority of local households at 87.5%, consisting of couples with children at 48.4%, couples without children at 31.5%, and single parent households at 6.9%. Non-family households represent the remaining 12.5%, which includes single-person households at 11.4% and group households at 1.1%. The median household size is 3.1 people, which exceeds the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

The Vines demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Academic credentials in the suburb of The Vines are lower than regional averages, with 21.0% of residents aged 15+ holding a university degree, compared to the national rate of 30.4%. Among tertiary degree holders, bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.6%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 4.0% and graduate diplomas at 2.4%. Vocational and technical qualifications are highly prevalent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding trade credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas at 13.1% and certificates at 27.8%.

Enrolment rates in education are elevated, with 31.7% of residents undertaking formal study. This comprises 11.9% in primary school, 10.5% in high school, and 4.2% enrolled in tertiary courses.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport options in the suburb of The Vines include 3 active stops served by a mix of buses. These stops accommodate 1 distinct routes, which combine to support 476 weekly passenger trips. Local transit accessibility is limited, with residents living an average of 682 meters from the nearest stop. The suburb is primarily residential, resulting in a high rate of outward commuting, with cars being the main transport mode for 89% of workers. Households own an average of 2.1 vehicles, which is higher than the regional average. A relatively low proportion of residents (10.4%) worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency across all routes averages 68 trips per day, which translates to roughly 158 weekly trips for each transport stop.

The Vines's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health indicators in the suburb of The Vines show excellent outcomes, as highlighted by AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic illness rates. The prevalence of common health conditions is very low across all age groups, and private health insurance rates are exceptionally high, covering approximately 57% of the population, which equates to about 3,868 people.

Asthma and mental health conditions are the most prevalent issues, affecting 6.6% and 6.5% of residents respectively. Conversely, 74.5% of the population reported no chronic conditions, higher than the 71.9% recorded across Greater Perth. The working-age cohort exhibits strong health profiles, with low rates of long-term illness. Residents aged 65 and over make up 14.1% of the population (954 people), which is lower than the Greater Perth proportion of 16.1%. Senior health outcomes are strong, aligning with national rankings for the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in The Vines was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cultural diversity in the suburb of The Vines is higher than in most other local areas, with 12.0% of the population speaking a non-English language at home and 35.9% born outside Australia. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 52.0% of residents. The most pronounced religious overrepresentation relative to the metropolitan average is Judaism, which accounts for 0.1% of the population compared to 0.3% across Greater Perth.

English ancestry is the most common parental background at 32.6%, followed by Australian ancestry at 22.2% and Other ancestries at 9.2%. Notable variations in specific backgrounds exist, with South Australian backgrounds representing 1.8% of the population in the suburb of The Vines compared to 1.0% regionally, Welsh backgrounds at 1.0% compared to 0.7%, and New Zealand backgrounds at 1.4% compared to 0.8% regionally.

The Vines's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in the suburb of The Vines is 39 years, which is slightly above the Greater Perth average of 37 and very close to the Australian median of 38. The 55 to 64 age bracket is overrepresented at 13.8% compared to Greater Perth, while young adults aged 25 to 34 are underrepresented at 8.4%. Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age bracket grew from 13.0% to 15.1% and the 75 to 84 bracket rose from 3.5% to 4.7%. Meanwhile, children aged 0 to 4 declined from 5.9% to 4.4% and the 45 to 54 cohort fell from 15.8% to 14.6%. Population forecasts for 2041 predict that the 45 to 54 group will experience the largest growth, rising 30% from 987 to 1,285 residents (an increase of 297 people). In contrast, the numbers of residents aged 5 to 14 and 35 to 44 are projected to decline.