Kelmscott

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kelmscott reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Kelmscott's estimated population is around 11,186, reflecting a growth of 611 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 5.8% change from the previous population count of 10,575. AreaSearch validated this estimate by examining the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and adding an additional 76 new addresses since the Census date, resulting in an estimated resident population of 11,161. The population density ratio is approximately 743 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed significantly to this growth, accounting for around 77% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 growth estimates, AreaSearch uses the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population dynamics suggest a median-level increase for statistical areas across the nation. By 2041, Kelmscott is projected to grow by approximately 1,010 persons, reflecting an 8.8% total gain over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kelmscott recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Kelmscott recorded approximately 30 residential properties granted approval each year. Between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, around 151 homes were approved, with an additional 7 approved in FY-26. On average, about 2.2 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

The average expected construction cost value for new homes was $311,000, which is below regional levels, suggesting more accessible housing choices for buyers. This financial year has seen $7.8 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Perth, Kelmscott has significantly less development activity, at 75.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, which is also below average nationally, potentially due to planning constraints or the area's maturity. The building activity shows a focus on detached dwellings (86.0%) over attached dwellings (14.0%), maintaining the area's traditional low-density character appealing to those seeking space.

With an estimated 382 people in the area per dwelling approval, Kelmscott has a quiet, low-activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 988 residents through to 2041. Construction is keeping pace with projected growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as the population grows.

Kelmscott has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include Armadale Strategic Metropolitan Centre Redevelopment, Kelmscott District Centre Precinct Structure Plan, Kelmscott Senior High School Sports Hall and Arts Centre, and West of Rail Precinct. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Kelmscott are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Kelmscott has a balanced workforce consisting of both white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are strongly represented in the area.

The unemployment rate was 8.2% as of an unspecified date. Employment growth over the past year is estimated at 4.0%. As of June 2025, 5634 residents are employed while the unemployment rate stands at 4.4%, which is higher than Greater Perth's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Kelmscott lags behind that of Greater Perth, with a participation rate of 58.6% compared to Greater Perth's 65.2%.

The dominant employment sectors among Kelmscott residents include health care and social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a notable concentration in transport, postal, and warehousing employment, which is at 1.4 times the regional average. However, professional and technical services are under-represented, with only 4.6% of Kelmscott's workforce compared to Greater Perth's 8.2%. Over a 12-month period ending in an unspecified date, employment in Kelmscott increased by 4.0%, while the labour force grew by 3.1%. This led to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Perth recorded employment growth of 3.7% and labour force growth of 3.8%, with an increase in unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Kelmscott's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years. These projections are illustrative and do not take into account localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Kelmscott's median taxpayer income was $52,920 and average was $66,606 according to AreaSearch's postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022. This is slightly above national averages of $51,387 (median) and $74,639 (average). Greater Perth had a median income of $58,380 and average of $78,020 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 14.2% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for Kelmscott as of September 2025 would be approximately $60,435 (median) and $76,064 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Kelmscott fall between the 24th and 25th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 29.8% of Kelmscott's population (3,333 individuals), which is consistent with regional levels at 32.0%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Kelmscott, with only 83.6% of income remaining, ranking at the 24th percentile nationally.

Kelmscott is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Kelmscott, as per the latest Census, consisted of 81.6% houses and 18.4% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Perth metro had 90.0% houses and 10.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kelmscott was higher at 31.2%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (41.4%) or rented (27.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Kelmscott was $1,500, lower than Perth metro's average of $1,750. The median weekly rent figure in Kelmscott was recorded at $290, compared to Perth metro's $305. Nationally, Kelmscott's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kelmscott features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.6% of all households, including 25.1% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 14.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.4%, with lone person households at 29.9% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.8.

Kelmscott shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate of 16.9% falls significantly below the Australian average of 30.4%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 12.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.0% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (31.5%).

Educational participation is high, at 29.1%, including primary education (10.7%), secondary education (8.4%), and tertiary education (3.8%). Kelmscott's five schools have a combined enrollment of 2,318 students, serving balanced educational opportunities typical of Australian schools (ICSEA: 991). Education provision is balanced with three primary and two secondary schools catering to distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The transport analysis indicates that Kelmscott has 96 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 14 different routes, collectively facilitating 3,493 weekly passenger trips. The report rates the area's transport accessibility as good, with residents typically residing 212 meters from their nearest transport stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 499 trips per day, equating to approximately 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kelmscott is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Kelmscott faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 54%, covering around 6000 people. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.2% and 8.9% of residents respectively. About 64.5% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to 72.1% across Greater Perth. Kelmscott has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 20.4% (2281 people), compared to the 12.8% in Greater Perth. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Kelmscott was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kelmscott's population showed higher linguistic diversity, with 12.1% speaking a language other than English at home, compared to the region's average. Born overseas, 31.5% of Kelmscott residents were born outside Australia, slightly higher than Greater Perth's 30.7%. Christianity was the predominant religion in Kelmscott, practiced by 42.8%, aligning with the regional figure of 42.9%.

However, the 'Other' religious category had a lower representation in Kelmscott at 1.2% compared to Greater Perth's 3.0%. In terms of ancestry, English was the most common, at 33.4%, higher than Greater Perth's 27.9%. Australian ancestry followed, with 24.1%, and 'Other' made up 8.4%. Notable differences included Dutch ancestry, which stood at 2.6% in Kelmscott versus 2.4% regionally, Welsh at 0.8% compared to 0.6%, and Maori at 1.1%, equal to the regional average.

Kelmscott's median age exceeds the national pattern

Kelmscott has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Perth's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Greater Perth average, Kelmscott has a notably higher proportion of people aged 65-74 (10.9% locally) but fewer people aged 35-44 (13.2%). Between 2021 and present, the percentage of people aged 75-84 has increased from 5.7% to 7.2%, while the proportion of those aged 5-14 has decreased from 12.3% to 11.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Kelmscott's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 66%, increasing from 805 to 1,336 people. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above are expected to account for 81% of total population growth. Conversely, the 0-4 and 35-44 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.