Kelmscott

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kelmscott reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to the analysis of geographical data and recent residential addresses checked by AreaSearch since the Census, the suburb of Kelmscott has an estimated population of 11,416 as of May 2026. This represents an addition of 841 residents (8.0%) since the 2021 Census, when the count stood at 10,575 individuals. The figure is derived from a resident baseline of 11,352 estimated after reviewing the ABS June 2025 release of estimated resident population statistics, along with 91 validated new addresses registered following the Census. The resulting density stands at 759 persons per square kilometer, which aligns closely with typical numbers recorded across regions tracked by AreaSearch. The suburb of Kelmscott has experienced growth of 8.0% since the Census, placing it 1.3 percentage points below the national rate of 9.3%, which indicates a competitive expansion profile. This upward population movement was mostly supported by arrivals from abroad, who accounted for roughly 77.0% of the overall population increases lately.

Projections established by Geoscience Australia and the ABS for local areas during 2024, using 2022 as a baseline, are utilized by AreaSearch. For regions missing these specific projections and to calculate long-term changes after 2032, growth rates by age groups from the 2023 Greater Capital Region forecasts (based on 2022 trends) are applied. Anticipating these changing age patterns, the suburb of Kelmscott is projected to undergo population growth slightly under the national median, gaining 921 residents by 2041 when combining localized forecasts, representing an overall increase of 7.5% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kelmscott recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on residential building approvals tracked by the ABS, the suburb of Kelmscott records approximately 30 residential building permits annually, with a total of 151 properties approved over the preceding 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25) and 30 approvals recorded during the current FY-26 period. Over the 5 financial years between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 2.9 new residents were added for each completed home, showing a healthy demand level that reinforces local real estate pricing, with new dwellings carrying an average construction cost of $311,000. Additionally, commercial building approvals have reached $7.8 million during the current financial year, which highlights a minor focus on non-residential development.

Construction levels in the suburb of Kelmscott are significantly lower compared to the wider metropolitan region, showing a rate that is 75.0% below the average per resident in Greater Perth. This limited volume of building activity generally acts to support value and demand for established residential properties. This rate also sits below the national average, highlighting the mature nature of the local market and possible spatial limits on new builds. The composition of new projects is 86.0% stand-alone houses and 14.0% medium-to-high density structures, ensuring the regional preference for low-density layouts remains intact while catering to households looking for larger properties. Furthermore, the ratio of 388 individuals for every single residential approval points to a tranquil, low-impact construction landscape.

Looking forward, the population of the suburb of Kelmscott is projected to rise by 857 residents by the year 2041, according to the latest quarterly figures compiled by AreaSearch. Present building rates appear to match future demands well, fostering balanced conditions in the market without causing severe price spikes.

Kelmscott has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

Local performance is highly dependent on changes to local infrastructure, significant projects, and urban planning. In total, AreaSearch has tracked 17 developments that are expected to impact the region. Primary developments include the Armadale Strategic Metropolitan Centre Redevelopment, the Kelmscott District Centre Precinct Structure Plan, the Kelmscott Senior High School Sports Hall and Arts Centre, and the West of Rail Precinct, with details on the most relevant schemes provided below.

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The labour market performance in Kelmscott lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

The suburb of Kelmscott features a diverse job profile of white-collar and blue-collar occupations, with notable representation in production and industrial fields, alongside an unemployment rate of 8.4% and an estimated annual job growth of 1.5%, according to regional data compiled by AreaSearch. As of March 2026, 5,546 local citizens are employed, with the unemployment rate sitting 4.2% higher than the Greater Perth rate of 4.2%, suggesting room for labour market improvements, while the participation rate is notably lower at 64.5% compared to 70.2% in Greater Perth. According to the Census records, a modest 5.2% of the workforce operated from home, though this figure should be viewed in light of coronavirus restriction periods.

The primary employment fields for working locals are health care & social assistance, building and construction, and retail. The area features a particularly high concentration of workers in transport, postal & warehousing, which is 1.4 times the average seen across the region. Conversely, technical & professional roles are underrepresented, accounting for 4.6% of the local workforce compared to 8.2% in Greater Perth. The area is highly residential and offers limited employment positions within its boundaries, as highlighted by comparing the number of working residents to the locally based jobs in the Census.

Data from the ABS and SALM compiled by AreaSearch indicates that for the 12 months ending March 2026, the local workforce expanded by 1.5% and the labor pool grew by 2.0%, which led to a 0.5 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. By comparison, Greater Perth experienced a 2.0% rise in jobs and a 2.5% increase in the labor force, with its unemployment rate moving up by 0.4 percentage points. Forward-looking employment estimates from May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia provide further perspective on employment potential in the suburb of Kelmscott. These five and ten-year projections are aligned with local industries to evaluate growth. Nationwide employment is anticipated to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though rates vary significantly by sector. Applying these industry weights to the local workforce suggests an employment increase of 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, which represents a basic weighted calculation for demonstration purposes and does not incorporate local population forecasts.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to the ATO postcode data aggregated by AreaSearch for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in the suburb of Kelmscott have a median income of $52,920 and an average income of $66,606. This falls slightly short of the national benchmark, and compares to a median of $60,748 and an average of $80,248 in Greater Perth. Adjusting these figures for a Wage Price Index increase of 10.93% since the 2023 financial year yields estimated values of approximately $58,704 for the median and $73,886 for the average as of March 2026. Figures from the 2021 Census place household, family, and individual incomes in the area between the 24th and 25th percentiles across the country. In terms of earnings brackets, 29.8% of the community (representing 3,401 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 range, which is comparable to the wider regional rate of 32.0%. High housing costs pose a significant challenge, leaving residents with only 83.6% of their income, which ranks in the 24th percentile.

Kelmscott is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

At the time of the latest Census, the housing mix in the suburb of Kelmscott consisted of 81.6% separate houses and 18.4% alternative dwellings like townhouses and apartments, compared to the Perth metropolitan average of 77.8% houses and 22.1% alternative types. The proportion of households owning their homes outright was higher than the metro average at 31.2%, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (41.4%) or rented (27.4%). Homebuyers faced a median monthly mortgage cost of $1,500, which is below the metro average of $1,907, while renters paid a median of $290 per week, compared to the regional figure of $350. On a national scale, mortgage payments in the suburb of Kelmscott are considerably below the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are much lower than the country-wide median of $375.

Kelmscott features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up 66.6% of the households in the suburb of Kelmscott, consisting of 25.1% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 14.4% single-parent homes. Non-family households represent the remaining 33.4% of the community, with single-person households at 29.9% and shared group households at 3.4%. The median household occupancy stands at 2.4 residents, which is slightly smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Kelmscott shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Educational markers show some local hurdles, with university graduation rates at 16.9%, which is well below the national level of 30.4%. This gap offers a path for focused educational strategies in the area. Among university qualifications, bachelor degrees are held by 12.0% of the population, followed by postgraduate degrees at 2.8% and graduate diplomas at 2.1%. Practical and trade qualifications are common, with 42.0% of residents aged 15+ holding a vocational qualification, split between advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificates at 31.5%.

A significant proportion of the population is engaged in study, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in an educational program. This total comprises 10.7% in primary school, 8.4% in high school, and 3.8% in higher education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transit records show 98 active stops operating in the suburb of Kelmscott, combining rail and bus networks. These passenger access points are connected to 13 separate routes, supporting a total of 1,543 passenger journeys each week. Local transit access is rated as good, with residents living an average of 212 meters from their nearest transit stop. Given the residential nature of the suburb, most workers travel to other areas, with private vehicles being the primary choice at 84%, while 10% travel by train. Car ownership is positioned at 1.4 vehicles per household. A low proportion of 5.2% of residents worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by pandemic conditions.

Service frequency averages 220 journeys daily across the network, translating to roughly 15 weekly journeys for each individual stop.

Health performance in Kelmscott is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Local health statistics show notable hurdles for the suburb of Kelmscott, according to AreaSearch's evaluation of death rates and ongoing illnesses across multiple age groups, with private health insurance coverage levels just ahead of the median SA2 region at approximately 54% of the population, representing about 6,123 individuals. In comparison, the coverage rate across Greater Perth is 59.0%.

The most prevalent health issues recorded among locals were mental health conditions and arthritis, affecting 10.2% and 8.9% of the population respectively, while 64.5% of residents reported having no long-term illnesses compared to 71.9% in Greater Perth. The working-age cohort faces distinct difficulties with high levels of chronic illnesses. Residents aged 65 and over make up 20.2% of the local population (representing 2,306 individuals), which exceeds the 16.1% average in Greater Perth. Health outcomes for older residents present some difficulties, with country-wide percentiles matching those of the general public.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Kelmscott was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

The suburb of Kelmscott shows greater cultural diversity than most comparable markets, with 12.1% of residents speaking a non-English language at home and 31.5% born in another country. Christianity is the primary religious affiliation, representing 42.8% of the local population. However, the most distinct religious deviation was in the Other category, which represents 1.2% of the population, compared to 1.4% across Greater Perth.

Regarding ancestral backgrounds based on parents' birthplace, the three largest groups in the suburb of Kelmscott are English at 33.4% of the population (exceeding the regional level of 28.0%), Australian at 24.1%, and Other at 8.4%. Notable differences exist for other ancestries, with Dutch origins overrepresented at 2.6% (compared to 1.5% across the region), Welsh at 0.8% (compared to 0.7%), and Maori at 1.1% (compared to 0.9%).

Kelmscott's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in the suburb of Kelmscott is 40, which is higher than the Greater Perth median of 37 and slightly above the national figure of 38 years. Relative to the Perth metropolitan average, the 65 - 74 age bracket is overrepresented at 10.6% of the population, while 35 - 44 year-olds are underrepresented at 13.4%. Since 2021, residents aged 75 to 84 have increased their share from 5.7% to 7.4%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort decreased from 13.0% to 11.9%. Demographic forecasts suggest the age profile in the suburb of Kelmscott will change by 2041. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 466 residents (55%), increasing from 844 to 1,311. Crucially, residents aged 65 and over will account for 79% of total population growth, pointing to an aging local profile. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age brackets are projected to experience population decreases.