Caboolture - South

Caboolture - South lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Caboolture - South's population is around 28,462 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 4,837 people (20.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 23,625 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 27,015 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 902 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,035 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Caboolture - South's 20.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 60.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including overseas migration and natural growth, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence, where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas is forecast, with the area expected to increase by 9,906 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 29.7% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Caboolture - South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Caboolture - South has seen around 337 new homes approved each year, with 1,688 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 238 so far in FY-26. With an average of 2.4 people per year moving to the area per new home constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), suggesting solid demand that supports property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $216,000—below the regional average—suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Additionally, $28.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating steady commercial investment activity.

Relative to Greater Brisbane, Caboolture - South maintains similar construction rates (per person), maintaining market balance consistent with the broader area, though development activity has moderated in recent periods. This level is substantially higher than the national average, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 75.0% detached dwellings and 25.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. At around 112 people per approval, Caboolture - South reflects a developing area.

Looking ahead, Caboolture - South is expected to grow by 8,459 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Caboolture - South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 52 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Coles Caboolture West (Lilywood Town Centre), Montrose Master Planned Community, Morayfield Marketplace, and Arbourwood Residential Community, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Caboolture - South lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Caboolture - South has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of 7.2%, and 4.4% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 11,806 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 3.0% above Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (59.8% compared to Greater Brisbane's 71.2%). Based on Census responses, a low 8.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a particular employment specialization in retail trade, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. On the other hand, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 3.3% of Caboolture - South's workforce compared to 8.9% in Greater Brisbane. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increase by 4.4% alongside a labour force increase of 4.2%, resulting in unemployment falling by 0.1 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Brisbane recorded employment growth of 3.2%, labour force growth of 3.0%, and unemployment falling 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Caboolture - South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Caboolture - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Caboolture - South SA2 is lower than average on a national basis, with the median assessed at $49,981 while the average income stands at $56,644. This contrasts with Greater Brisbane's figures of a median income of $58,236 and an average income of $72,799. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $54,934 (median) and $62,257 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Caboolture - South all fall between the 17th and 18th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the predominant cohort spans 32.2% of locals (9,164 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the region where 33.3% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 14th percentile.

Caboolture - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Caboolture - South, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 82.8% houses and 17.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Brisbane metro's 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Caboolture - South lagged that of Brisbane metro, at 22.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (29.5%) or rented (47.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Brisbane metro average at $1,473, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $340, compared to Brisbane metro's $1,863 and $380. Nationally, Caboolture - South's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Caboolture - South features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 72.0% of all households, comprising 26.0% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 20.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 28.0%, with lone person households at 23.5% and group households comprising 4.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.7 people is larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Caboolture - South faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (10.6%) substantially below the Greater Brisbane average of 30.5%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 8.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 44.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (33.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.8% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 74 active transport stops operating within Caboolture - South, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 73 individual routes, collectively providing 2,868 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 352 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 90%, with 5% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling. A relatively low 8.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 409 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 38 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Caboolture - South is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Caboolture - South, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~13,519 people). This compares to 55.8% across Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 12.1% and 9.7% of residents, respectively, while 60.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 69.2% across Greater Brisbane. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 19.1% of residents aged 65 and over (5,439 people), which is higher than the 15.2% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Caboolture - South ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Caboolture - South was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 84.7% of its population being citizens, 81.2% born in Australia, and 92.4% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Caboolture - South is Christianity, which makes up 41.7% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 0.9% of the population, compared to 1.3% across Greater Brisbane.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Caboolture - South are English, comprising 30.6% of the population, Australian, comprising 29.4% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 23.2%, and Irish, comprising 6.8% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Maori is notably overrepresented at 1.4% of Caboolture - South (vs 1.1% regionally), New Zealand at 1.2% (vs 1.0%) and Samoan at 1.0% (vs 0.9%).

Caboolture - South's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

With a median age of 34, Caboolture - South is slightly younger than the Greater Brisbane figure of 36 and is substantially under Australia's 38 years. Relative to Greater Brisbane, Caboolture - South has a higher concentration of 75 - 84 residents (7.7%) but fewer 35 - 44 year-olds (12.0%). Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.3% to 7.7% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 15.8% to 14.6% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 15.2% to 14.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Caboolture - South. The 75 to 84 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 88%, adding 1,923 residents to reach 4,118. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 cohort grows by a modest 5% (102 people).