Upper Caboolture

Upper Caboolture lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Upper Caboolture's population is around 4,470 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,210 people (37.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,260 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,538 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 493 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 80 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Upper Caboolture's 37.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 62.7% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and overseas migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence, where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Considering the projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of national areas, is predicted over the period, with the area expected to increase by 3,599 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 59.7% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Upper Caboolture among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Upper Caboolture has seen around 73 new homes approved each year, totalling 367 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26323 approvals have been recorded. At an average of just 0.9 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is meeting or surpassing demand, providing greater buyer choice while supporting potential for population growth above projections, while new homes are being built at an average value of $315,000.

Compared to Greater Brisbane, Upper Caboolture has slightly more development (43.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. This activity is well above average nationally, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New building activity shows 86.0% detached houses and 14.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 50 people per dwelling approval, Upper Caboolture shows characteristics of a growth area.

Looking ahead, Upper Caboolture is expected to grow by 2,667 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Upper Caboolture has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 49 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Baycrown Property Group Development, Lilywood Landings, Aire Lilywood, and Coles Caboolture River Road, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Upper Caboolture significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Upper Caboolture has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.4%, and 4.0% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 2,004 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.7% below Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Brisbane's 71.2%. Based on Census responses, a moderate 15.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level. On the other hand, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 4.8% of Upper Caboolture's workforce compared to 8.9% in Greater Brisbane. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 4.0% while the labour force increased by 4.1%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. This compares to Greater Brisbane, where employment grew by 3.2%, the labour force expanded by 3.0%, and unemployment fell 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Upper Caboolture. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Upper Caboolture's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The Upper Caboolture SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $49,627 and an average of $56,280 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is below the national average, contrasting with Greater Brisbane's median income of $58,236 and average income of $72,799. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $54,545 (median) and $61,857 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 78th percentile ($2,202 weekly), while personal income sits at the 54th percentile. Distribution data shows the largest segment comprises 37.0% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (1,653 residents), consistent with broader trends across the region showing 33.3% in the same category. Economic strength emerges through 30.4% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 14.0% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 80th percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Upper Caboolture is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Upper Caboolture, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 98.6% houses and 1.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Brisbane metro's 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Upper Caboolture was well beyond that of Brisbane metro, at 34.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (57.0%) or rented (8.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Brisbane metro average at $2,058, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $420, compared to Brisbane metro's $1,863 and $380. Nationally, Upper Caboolture's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Upper Caboolture features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 87.3% of all households, comprising 42.9% couples with children, 35.3% couples without children, and 7.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 12.7%, with lone person households at 11.4% and group households comprising 1.4% of the total. The median household size of 3.0 people is larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Upper Caboolture fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (14.7%) substantially below the Greater Brisbane average of 30.5%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 46.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (35.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in secondary education, 8.9% in primary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health outcomes in Upper Caboolture are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average outcomes in Upper Caboolture, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~2,123 people). This compares to 55.8% across Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.4% and 8.3% of residents, respectively, while 67.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 69.2% across Greater Brisbane. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 20.8% of residents aged 65 and over (928 people), which is higher than the 15.2% in Greater Brisbane, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Upper Caboolture is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Upper Caboolture is below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 84.2% of its population born in Australia, 91.9% being citizens, and 96.1% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Upper Caboolture is Christianity, which makes up 49.3% of the population, compared to 47.8% across Greater Brisbane.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Upper Caboolture are English, comprising 33.0% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 26.8%, Australian, comprising 29.8% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 23.2%, and Irish, comprising 7.7% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of other ethnic groups: German is overrepresented at 5.8% in Upper Caboolture (vs 4.2% regionally), Welsh at 0.7% (vs 0.5%), and Samoan at 0.3% (vs 0.9%).

Upper Caboolture's population is slightly older than the national pattern

With a median age of 41, Upper Caboolture is considerably higher than the Greater Brisbane figure of 36 and similarly marginally higher than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Greater Brisbane average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented (12.2% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (10.4%). In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 4.1% to 7.3% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 11.7% to 13.0%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 16.2% to 13.3%. Demographic modeling suggests Upper Caboolture's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to surge dramatically, expanding by 475 people (145%) from 328 to 804.