Upper Caboolture

Upper Caboolture lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Upper Caboolture's population was around 4,457 as of November 2025, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure represents an increase of 1,197 people, a 36.7% rise since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3,260. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,539 in June 2024 and an additional 428 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 80 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential room for further development. Upper Caboolture's growth since the 2021 census exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 62.7% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Future population trends predict exceptional growth, placing Upper Caboolture in the top 10 percent of statistical areas across the nation. The area is expected to grow by 3,599 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 60.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Upper Caboolture among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Upper Caboolture has seen approximately 73 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25367 homes were approved, with an additional 262 approved in FY-26 so far.

On average, 0.9 new residents have arrived per new home each year over these five years. This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choices and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average expected construction cost of new dwellings is $315,000. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Upper Caboolture has slightly more development activity, with 43.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period.

This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. Notably, this level of development is substantially higher than the national average, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New developments consist of 86.0% detached houses and 14.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 50 people per dwelling approval, Upper Caboolture shows characteristics of a growth area. Looking ahead, Upper Caboolture is expected to grow by 2,680 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling population growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Upper Caboolture has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 45thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 49 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Baycrown Property Group Development, Lilywood Landings, Coles Caboolture River Road, and Aire Lilywood. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Upper Caboolture performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Upper Caboolture's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector stands out with a high representation, an unemployment rate of 1.9% as of September 2025, and estimated employment growth of 7.1% over the past year.

In this month, 2,023 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.1%, lower than Greater Brisbane's 4.0%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Brisbane's 64.5%. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction employment share is 1.9 times the regional level, while professional & technical employs just 4.8% of local workers, below Greater Brisbane's 8.9%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data analysis. In the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 7.1%, labour force by 6.1%, reducing unemployment by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Brisbane had employment growth of 3.8% and a 0.5 percentage point drop in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov shows Queensland employment contracted by 0.01%, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industries. Applying these projections to Upper Caboolture's mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Upper Caboolture SA2's median income among taxpayers was $46,726 and average income stood at $52,903 in financial year 2022. This is lower than Greater Brisbane's figures of $55,645 and $70,520 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $53,263 and average income around $60,304, based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 78th percentile ($2,202 weekly) and personal income at the 54th percentile. The $1,500 - $2,999 income bracket dominates with 37.0% of residents (1,649 people). Higher earners make up a substantial presence with 30.4% exceeding $3,000 weekly. Housing accounts for 14.0% of income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Upper Caboolture is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Upper Caboolture's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.6% houses and 1.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Brisbane metro's 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Upper Caboolture stood at 34.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 57.0% and rented ones at 8.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,058, higher than Brisbane metro's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure in Upper Caboolture was $420, compared to Brisbane metro's $350. Nationally, Upper Caboolture's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,058 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Upper Caboolture features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 87.3% of all households, including 42.9% couples with children, 35.3% couples without children, and 7.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 12.7%, with lone person households at 11.4% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.8.

Educational outcomes in Upper Caboolture fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.7%, significantly lower than Greater Brisbane's average of 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 46.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (35.9%). Educational participation is high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.8% in secondary education, 8.9% in primary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in secondary education, 8.9% in primary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Upper Caboolture is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Upper Caboolture faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~2,081 people), compared to 49.3% across Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.4% and 8.3% of residents respectively.

Meanwhile, 67.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.7% across Greater Brisbane. The area has 19.9% of residents aged 65 and over (886 people), which is higher than the 17.3% in Greater Brisbane.

Upper Caboolture is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Upper Caboolture had a cultural diversity level below average, with 84.2% of its population born in Australia and 91.9% being citizens. English was the language spoken at home by 96.1%. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 49.3%, compared to 48.3% across Greater Brisbane.

The top three ancestry groups were English (33.0%), Australian (29.8%), and Irish (7.7%). Notably, German ethnicity was overrepresented at 5.8% (regional average: 4.5%), Welsh at 0.7% (0.6%), and Samoan at 0.3% (0.9%).

Upper Caboolture's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Upper Caboolture has a median age of 41, which is higher than Greater Brisbane's figure of 36 and Australia's median age of 38. The 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented in Upper Caboolture at 11.9%, compared to the Greater Brisbane average. Meanwhile, those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 10.8%. Between January 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 4.1% to 6.8% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 11.7% to 13.2%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 16.2% to 13.3%. Demographic modeling indicates that Upper Caboolture's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 75 to 84 age cohort projected to increase dramatically, expanding by 502 people (166%) from 301 to 804.