Deception Bay
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Deception Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Deception Bay's population was approximately 24,570 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 1,884 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,686. The change is inferred from ABS data: an estimated resident population of 24,198 in June 2024 and an additional 1,199 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 770 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Deception Bay's population growth rate of 8.3% since the census is within 0.6 percentage points of the national average (8.9%). Interstate migration contributed approximately 48.9% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted, with proportional growth weightings applied for age cohorts. Population projections indicate an above median growth for statistical areas across the nation, with Deception Bay expected to grow by 5,316 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 20.1% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Deception Bay among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Deception Bay has seen approximately 315 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 1,578 homes. As of FY26158 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.6 new residents per year have arrived for each new home constructed between FY21 and FY25, indicating that supply has met or exceeded demand. The average construction value of new properties is $283,000.

This financial year, $36.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Deception Bay records 11.0% less building activity per person but ranks among the 96th percentile of areas assessed nationally, indicating robust developer interest. New development consists of 76.0% standalone homes and 24.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. With around 46 people per dwelling approval, Deception Bay exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

Future projections estimate that Deception Bay will add approximately 4,934 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Deception Bay has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 41 projects that may affect the region. Notable ones include First Nations Elders Housing Project, Deception Bay Road Upgrade (Bruce Highway to Park Road), Joseph Crescent Residential Subdivision, and Queensland Energy and Jobs Plan - South East Queensland. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Deception Bay shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Deception Bay has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. Its unemployment rate is 6.1% and it has seen 13.8% employment growth in the past year.

As of June 2025, there are 10,595 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.1%, which is 2.0% higher than Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation is lower at 51.8% compared to Greater Brisbane's 64.5%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction has particularly high employment levels, at 1.3 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have limited presence with only 3.0% of employment compared to the regional average of 8.9%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 13.8%, while labour force grew by 8.3%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate of 4.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Brisbane saw a 4.4% increase in employment, a 4.0% growth in labour force, and a 0.4 percentage point drop in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Deception Bay's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Deception Bay's median income among taxpayers was $47,928 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $53,846 during the same period. In comparison, Greater Brisbane had median and average incomes of $55,645 and $70,520 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 13.99% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $54,633 (median) and $61,379 (average). According to Census 2021 data, income levels in Deception Bay fall between the 13th and 15th percentiles nationally for household, family, and personal incomes. Income analysis shows that 29.0% of locals (7,125 people) have incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels where 33.3% fall into the same income category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Deception Bay, with only 80.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Deception Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Deception Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.2% houses and 14.8% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Brisbane metro had 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Deception Bay was higher at 30.9%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (32.0%) or rented (37.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Deception Bay was $1,517, below Brisbane metro's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $330, compared to Brisbane metro's $350. Nationally, Deception Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Deception Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.9% of all households, including 24.5% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 16.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 31.1%, with lone person households at 27.9% and group households making up 3.2%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.8.

Deception Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 11.3%, significantly below the Greater Brisbane average of 30.5%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (33.1%).

Educational participation is high at 28.0%, including 10.8% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education. Nine schools operate within Deception Bay, educating approximately 4,627 students. The educational mix includes four primary, four secondary, and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Deception Bay has 57 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by a mix of buses running along four different routes. Together, these routes facilitate 1,150 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in Deception Bay is rated as good, with residents on average living 353 meters away from the nearest stop. On average, there are 164 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Deception Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Health challenges significantly impact Deception Bay across various age groups. The private health cover rate stands at approximately 47%, covering about 11,547 people, compared to 49.3% in Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues affect 11.2% of residents, while arthritis impacts 11.0%.

About 57.3% claim no medical ailments, lower than the 63.7% in Greater Brisbane. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 23.9%, numbering around 5,867 people, higher than Greater Brisbane's 17.3%. Senior health outcomes align with general population trends.

Deception Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Deception Bay, surveyed in June 2016, showed low cultural diversity with 85.4% citizens, 79.7% born in Australia, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 50.6%, compared to 48.3% regionally. Top ancestral groups were English (30.6%), Australian (27.6%), and Irish (7.3%).

Divergences included Samoan at 1.9% (regional: 0.9%), Maori at 1.7% (regional: 1.2%), and New Zealand at 1.3% (regional: 1.3%).

Deception Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

Deception Bay has a median age of 41, which is higher than Greater Brisbane's figure of 36 and Australia's figure of 38. Compared to Greater Brisbane's average, Deception Bay has an over-representation of the 75-84 age cohort (9.5% locally) and an under-representation of the 25-34 age group (10.3%). Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group grew from 7.3% to 9.5% of the population, while the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.5% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Deception Bay's age profile will significantly evolve. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 1,537 people (66%), reaching 3,872 from the current 2,334. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 67% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 25-34 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.