Deception Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Deception Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Deception Bay's population is approximately 24,570 as of November 2025. Between the 2021 Census and June 2024, the population increased by around 1,884 people, an 8.3% rise from the 2021 figure of 22,686. This growth is inferred from ABS estimates showing a resident population of 24,198 in June 2024 and an additional 1,199 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is about 770 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Deception Bay's growth rate since the census is 8.3%, within 0.6 percentage points of the national average of 8.9%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 48.9% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data or years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 with a 2021 data base. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings based on ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 using 2022 data as the base year. Looking ahead, statistical areas across the nation are projected to have above median population growth, with Deception Bay expected to grow by approximately 5,316 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of around 20.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Deception Bay among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Deception Bay has seen approximately 315 new home approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 1,578 homes. As of FY26181 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.6 new residents per year have arrived for each new home approved between FY21 and FY25, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction value of new properties is $283,000.

In the current financial year, $36.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Deception Bay records 11.0% less building activity per person but ranks among the 96th percentile nationally, suggesting robust developer interest. New development consists of 76.0% standalone homes and 24.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character. With around 46 people per dwelling approval, Deception Bay exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

Future projections estimate that Deception Bay will add approximately 4,934 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Deception Bay has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 41 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include First Nations Elders Housing Project, Deception Bay Road Upgrade (Bruce Highway to Park Road), Queensland Energy and Jobs Plan - South East Queensland, and Peninsula Power Sports Complex. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Deception Bay shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Deception Bay has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, an unemployment rate of 6.0%, and estimated employment growth of 10.5% over the past year (as of September 2025). There are 10,661 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 8.0% compared to Greater Brisbane's 4.0%.

Workforce participation is lower at 51.8%, versus Greater Brisbane's 64.5%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction has a notable concentration, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Professional & technical services have limited presence, at 3.0% compared to 8.9% regionally.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 10.5%, labour force grew by 6.0%, reducing the unemployment rate by 3.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Brisbane saw employment rise by 3.8%, labour force grow by 3.3%, with unemployment falling by 0.5 percentage points. State-wide, Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01% (losing 1,210 jobs) between November 2024 and November 2025, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Deception Bay's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes without considering localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The median income among taxpayers in Deception Bay SA2 was $47,928 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $53,846 during the same period. This compares to figures for Greater Brisbane's of $55,645 and $70,520 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $54,633 (median) and $61,379 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Deception Bay all fall between the 13th and 14th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 29.0% of locals (7,125 people) are in the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

Deception Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Deception Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.2% houses and 14.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Brisbane metro's 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Deception Bay was higher than that of Brisbane metro, at 30.9%. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (32.0%) or rented (37.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,517, lower than the Brisbane metro average of $1,733 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $330, which is lower than both the Brisbane metro figure of $350 and the national average of $375.

Deception Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.9% of all households, including 24.5% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 16.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.1%, with lone person households at 27.9% and group households comprising 3.2%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.8.

Deception Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.3%, significantly lower than Greater Brisbane's average of 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (33.1%). Educational participation is high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.8% in primary, 9.0% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Deception Bay has 57 operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by four different routes, together offering 1,150 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is considered good, with residents usually located 353 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 164 daily trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Deception Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Deception Bay, with a range of health conditions impacting both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 47% of the total population (~11,547 people) has private health cover, compared to 49.3% in Greater Brisbane and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 11.2% and 11.0% of residents respectively.

However, 57.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.7% in Greater Brisbane. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.9% (5,867 people), compared to 17.3% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Deception Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Deception Bay, surveyed in June 2016, showed cultural diversity below the average. Its population comprised 85.4% citizens, 79.7% born in Australia, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 50.6%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 48.3%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (30.6%), Australian (27.6%), and Irish (7.3%). Notably, Samoan (1.9%) and Maori (1.7%) populations exceeded regional averages of 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively.

Deception Bay's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Deception Bay has a median age of 41, which is higher than Greater Brisbane's figure of 36, and marginally higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Brisbane average, Deception Bay has an over-representation of the 75-84 age cohort (9.5% locally), while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented (10.3%). Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.3% to 9.5% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.5% to 11.8%. Demographic modeling suggests that Deception Bay's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow significantly, with an increase of 1,537 people (66%) from 2,334 to 3,872. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 67% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 25 to 34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.