Deception Bay
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Deception Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Deception Bay's population was approximately 24,581 as of August 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 1,895 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,686. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 24,196 in June 2024 and an additional 1,204 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 771 persons per square kilometer. Deception Bay's growth rate of 8.4% since the census is within 0.2 percentage points of the national average (8.6%). Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 48.9% of overall gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered or years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 and based on 2021 data are adopted. These state projections do not provide age category splits, so proportional growth weightings from ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) are applied for each age cohort where necessary. Based on the latest population numbers, an above median population growth is projected for statistical areas across the nation, with Deception Bay expected to grow by 5,316 persons to reach approximately 29,897 by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 20.0% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Deception Bay among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Deception Bay has seen approximately 315 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, totalling 1,578 approvals across the past five financial years from FY21 to FY25, with 72 approvals so far in FY26. On average, over these five years, 0.6 new residents arrived per new home annually, indicating supply meeting or exceeding demand and supporting potential population growth while providing greater buyer choice. The average construction value of new homes is $322,000, under regional levels, suggesting more accessible housing choices for buyers.

In FY26, $36.5 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Deception Bay shows 11.0% lower construction activity per person but ranks among the 96th percentile nationally, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 76.0% detached houses and 24.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 46 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Future projections show Deception Bay adding 4,923 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Deception Bay has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 40 projects that could impact this region. Notable projects include First Nations Elders Housing Project, Deception Bay Road Upgrade (Bruce Highway to Park Road), Joseph Crescent Residential Subdivision, and Dawn on Deception. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Deception Bay shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Deception Bay has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well-represented. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 6.1%, showing an estimated employment growth of 13.8% over the previous year.

In that month, 10,595 residents were employed, but the unemployment rate was 2.0% higher than Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 51.8%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 64.5%. Leading employment industries among Deception Bay residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 3.0% employment compared to the regional average of 8.9%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Deception Bay's employment increased by 13.8%, while labour force increased by 8.3%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment by 4.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Brisbane recorded employment growth of 4.4% during the same period. State-level data from September 2025 shows that Queensland's employment contracted by 0.23% (losing 8,070 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 4.2%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, but lags behind the national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Deception Bay's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Deception Bay's median income among taxpayers was $47,928 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $53,846 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Brisbane's median and average incomes of $55,645 and $70,520 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 11.71% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $53,540 (median) and $60,151 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Deception Bay fall between the 13th and 15th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 29.0% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, mirroring the national figure of 33.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Deception Bay, with only 80.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Deception Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Deception Bay, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, comprised 85.2% houses and 14.8% other dwellings. In Brisbane metro, it was 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Deception Bay was 30.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.0% and rented at 37.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, compared to Brisbane metro's $1,733. Median weekly rent was $330, versus Brisbane metro's $350. Nationally, Deception Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were below the national figure of $375.

Deception Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.9% of all households, consisting of 24.5% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 16.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.1%, with lone person households at 27.9% and group households comprising 3.2%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.8.

Deception Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges with university qualification rates at 11.3%, significantly below the Greater Brisbane average of 30.5%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (33.1%).

Educational participation is high at 28.0%, including primary education (10.8%), secondary education (9.0%), and tertiary education (2.7%). There are nine schools operating within Deception Bay, educating approximately 4627 students. The educational mix includes four primary schools, four secondary schools, and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 57 active transport stops operating within Deception Bay, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by four individual routes, collectively facilitating 1,150 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents typically situated 353 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 164 trips daily across all routes, translating to approximately 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Deception Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Deception Bay faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low at approximately 47%, covering around 11,553 people, compared to Greater Brisbane's 49.3%. Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, impacting 11.2% and 11.0% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 57.3% report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Brisbane's 63.7%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 23.9% (5,869 people), than Greater Brisbane's 17.3%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Deception Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Deception Bay, surveyed in June 2016, had a cultural diversity index below the average. Its population was predominantly Australian-born citizens speaking English at home: 85.4%, 79.7%, and 92.8% respectively. Christianity was the dominant religion, with 50.6% of residents identifying as Christian, compared to 48.3% in Greater Brisbane.

The top three ancestral groups were English (30.6%), Australian (27.6%), and Irish (7.3%). Notably, Samoan (1.9%) and Māori (1.7%) groups were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively. New Zealand-born residents also showed a similar percentage to the region at 1.3%.

Deception Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

Deception Bay has a median age of 41, which is higher than Greater Brisbane's figure of 36, and marginally higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Brisbane average, the 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Deception Bay, making up 9.5% of the local population, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 10.3%. Between 2021 and present day, the proportion of the population aged 75 to 84 has increased from 7.3% to 9.5%, while the percentage of those aged 45 to 54 has declined from 12.5% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Deception Bay's age profile will change significantly. The number of people in the 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 1,536 (66%), reaching 3,872 from a starting point of 2,335. Notably, the combined total population growth for those aged 65 and above will account for 67%, reflecting Deception Bay's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the populations aged 0 to 4 and 25 to 34 are expected to decline.