Clontarf

An assessment of population growth drivers in Clontarf reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Clontarf's population is approximately 8,910 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 495 people, a 5.9% rise from the 2021 Census which recorded 8,415 inhabitants. The growth is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 8,869 in June 2024 and an additional 41 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,412 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Clontarf's growth rate of 5.9% since the census is within 2.2 percentage points of the SA3 area's 8.1%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 57.2% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth in the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023, based on 2021 data, are adopted. However, these state projections lack age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings aligned with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023, based on 2022 data. Future population dynamics anticipate an above median growth for statistical areas nationwide. Clontarf is projected to expand by 1,314 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 14.3% over the 17-year period, based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Clontarf recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Clontarf has approved approximately 22 residential properties annually. Between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, a total of 111 homes were approved, with an additional 4 granted approval in FY-26 to date. Each dwelling built over these five years attracted an average of 3.5 new residents per year.

This significant demand outpaces supply, typically driving price growth and heightened buyer competition. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $311,000. In FY-26, commercial approvals have reached $6.4 million, suggesting limited focus on commercial development compared to residential. Clontarf's development activity is substantially lower than Greater Brisbane's average (69.0% below), which may contribute to increased demand and prices for existing properties due to scarcity of new homes. This trend is also observed nationally, indicating a mature market with potential development constraints.

The area's housing composition consists of 76.0% detached dwellings and 24.0% medium to high-density housing, preserving Clontarf's suburban character favoring family homes. With around 379 people per approval, the market is considered mature. By 2041, population forecasts estimate an increase of 1,273 residents in Clontarf (based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate). If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Clontarf has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Twenty projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. These include major upgrades like Clontarf Beach State High School's expansion, restoration projects such as Bramble Bay Foreshore Restoration Project, new campus developments like Clontarf State Special School, and residential estate expansions like Pelican Waters Estate's stages 3 & 4. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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Employment conditions in Clontarf demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Clontarf has a balanced workforce comprising both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.1% as of the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 9.0%.

As of September 2025, there are 4,511 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% lower than Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.0%. Workforce participation in Clontarf is significantly lower at 57.5%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 64.5%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have a limited presence, accounting for 5.2% of employment compared to the regional average of 8.9%. While local employment opportunities exist, many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the past year, employment increased by 9.0%, while labour force grew by 5.9%, leading to a decrease in unemployment by 2.7 percentage points. Comparatively, Greater Brisbane recorded employment growth of 3.8% and unemployment fell by 0.5 percentage points. As of 25-Nov, Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01%, with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%, closely aligned with the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Clontarf's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Clontarf SA2 is $51,807 and average income is $62,787. This contrasts with Greater Brisbane's median income of $55,645 and average income of $70,520. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $59,055 (median) and $71,571 (average). Census 2021 income data ranks Clontarf modestly for household, family, and personal incomes, between the 27th and 29th percentiles. Income distribution shows 31.7% of locals (2,824 people) earn $1,500 - 2,999, consistent with surrounding region's 33.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 24th percentile.

Clontarf is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Clontarf, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.1% houses and 21.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Brisbane metro had 68.2% houses and 31.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Clontarf was at 30.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (34.6%) or rented (34.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Clontarf was $1,733, aligning with Brisbane metro's average. The median weekly rent figure was recorded as $345, compared to Brisbane metro's $350. Nationally, Clontarf's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Clontarf features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 65.5% of all households, including 23.4% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 34.5%, with lone person households making up 30.9% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the Greater Brisbane average.

Educational outcomes in Clontarf fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.1%, significantly lower than Greater Brisbane's average of 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.3%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.5%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 30.4%. Educational participation is high, with 25.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.4% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Clontarf shows that there are currently 35 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with three individual routes providing a total of 517 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 194 meters away from the nearest transport stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes amounts to 73 trips per day, which equates to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Clontarf is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Clontarf faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Both younger and older age groups have notable prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is approximately 51%, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 10.8% and 10.4% of residents respectively. About 60.2% of residents report being free from medical ailments, compared to 59.7% in Greater Brisbane. The area has 23.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2,056 people), which is lower than the 28.2% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligning with the overall population's health profile.

Clontarf ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Clontarf was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 87.2% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (79.4%), and speaking English only at home (94.0%). Christianity is the predominant religion in Clontarf, comprising 48.1% of the population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Brisbane, with 0.1% of Clontarf's population identifying as Jewish.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (31.2%), Australian (25.7%), and Irish (9.9%). However, there are notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Maori (1.5% vs 1.4%), New Zealand (1.2% vs 1.1%), and Samoan (0.5% vs 0.7%) are overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Clontarf hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Clontarf is 46 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Brisbane's average of 36 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Clontarf has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (12.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (9.6%). According to the 2021 Census, the age group of 75 to 84 years has increased from 7.0% to 8.1% of Clontarf's population. Conversely, the age group of 25 to 34 years has decreased from 10.4% to 9.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Clontarf's age structure. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 69%, reaching 1,221 people from the current figure of 720. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 66% of total population growth, reflecting Clontarf's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 age groups are projected to decrease in number.