Bayonet Head - Lower King

Population growth drivers in Bayonet Head - Lower King are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, the population of Bayonet Head - Lower King is around 5,894 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 683 people (13.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,211 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 5,607 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 168 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 237 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Bayonet Head - Lower King's 13.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (9.0%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 51.6% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and overseas migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is utilising the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). As we examine future population trends, an above-median population growth for national non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the area expected to grow by 844 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 9.4% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Bayonet Head - Lower King when compared nationally

Bayonet Head - Lower King has recorded around 46 residential properties granted approval per year, with 230 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 33 so far in FY-26. With an average of 1.7 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, while new homes are being built at an average value of $224,000—under regional levels—indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers. Additionally, $147,000 in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating minimal commercial development activity.

When measured against the Rest of WA, Bayonet Head - Lower King has 50.0% more development activity (per person), offering buyers greater choice. Meanwhile, recent development has been entirely comprised of standalone homes, preserving the area's low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 144 people per dwelling approval, Bayonet Head - Lower King shows characteristics of a growth area.

Looking ahead, Bayonet Head - Lower King is expected to grow by 557 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Bayonet Head - Lower King has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 8 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Oyster Harbour Estate, Bayonet Head Social Housing Development, Bayview Heights Estate, and St Ives Retirement Village - Stage 2, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment positions Bayonet Head - Lower King ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Bayonet Head - Lower King has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of just 2.3%. As of December 2025, 2,823 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.3% below Regional WA's rate of 3.5%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (62.5% compared to Regional WA's 67.4%). Based on Census responses, a low 4.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area shows particularly strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. In contrast, mining employs just 2.9% of local workers, below Regional WA's 11.7%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw the labour force decrease by 5.4% while employment declined by 5.7%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional WA, where employment rose by 1.0%, the labour force grew by 1.4%, and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Bayonet Head - Lower King. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Bayonet Head - Lower King's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Bayonet Head - Lower King SA2 is below the national average, with the median assessed at $50,679 while the average income stands at $63,412. This contrasts with Regional WA's figures of a median income of $59,973 and an average income of $74,392. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $55,554 (median) and $69,512 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Bayonet Head - Lower King, between the 28th and 31st percentiles. The earnings profile shows the predominant cohort spans 31.6% of locals (1,862 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the metropolitan region where 31.1% similarly occupy this range. After housing, 85.3% of income remains, though this ranks at only the 29th percentile nationally and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Bayonet Head - Lower King is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Bayonet Head - Lower King, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 98.8% houses and 1.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional WA's 88.5% houses and 11.6% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Bayonet Head - Lower King was well beyond that of Regional WA, at 41.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (39.5%) or rented (18.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Regional WA average at $1,550, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $340, compared to Regional WA's $1,560 and $265. Nationally, Bayonet Head - Lower King's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Bayonet Head - Lower King has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 76.2% of all households, comprising 28.8% couples with children, 35.0% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 23.8%, with lone person households at 22.2% and group households comprising 1.6% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people matches the Regional WA average.

Educational outcomes in Bayonet Head - Lower King fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (17.2%) substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 43.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (31.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 44 active transport stops operating within Bayonet Head - Lower King, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 1 individual route, collectively providing 40 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 261 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 97%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling. A relatively low 4.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 5 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 0 weekly trips per individual stop.

Bayonet Head - Lower King's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Bayonet Head - Lower King, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~2,976 people). This compares to 56.4% across Regional WA. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.6 and 9.4% of residents, respectively, while 64.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 69.3% across Regional WA. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 21.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,270 people), which is higher than the 19.2% in Regional WA. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Bayonet Head - Lower King ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Bayonet Head - Lower King was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 80.5% of its population born in Australia, 90.2% being citizens, and 95.3% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Bayonet Head - Lower King is Christianity, which makes up 40.9% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 0.5% of the population, compared to 0.7% across Regional WA.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Bayonet Head - Lower King are English, comprising 36.2% of the population, Australian, comprising 30.5% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 7.8% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Welsh is notably overrepresented at 0.9% in Bayonet Head - Lower King (vs 0.6% regionally), Dutch at 2.0% (vs 1.5%) and South Australian at 0.9% (vs 0.6%).

Bayonet Head - Lower King hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The 43-year median age in Bayonet Head - Lower King is modestly exceeding Regional WA's average of 40 and is similarly well above the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Regional WA average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented (12.7% locally), while 5 - 14 year-olds are under-represented (11.4%). Since the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 9.7% to 11.5% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 11.3% to 12.6%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 13.4% to 11.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Bayonet Head - Lower King. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, increasing by 261 people (39%) from 677 to 939. Meanwhile, the 75 to 84 and 85+ cohorts are expected to experience population declines.