McKail

McKail lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Analysis of ABS population updates for the wider region and new address verifications by AreaSearch since the Census indicates that the suburb of McKail has a population of approximately 4,332 as of May 2026. This represents an expansion of 362 people (9.1%) compared to the 2021 Census, which counted 3,970 people. The estimate is derived from a resident population of 4,306 calculated by AreaSearch using the latest ABS ERP data release (June 2025) along with 92 validated new addresses registered since the Census date. This population size results in a density of 438 persons per square kilometer, which offers substantial space per individual and capacity for future housing projects. The 9.1% growth rate in the suburb of McKail since the 2021 census outpaced the SA3 region (8.8%), positioning it as a leading growth area locally. Natural increase was the primary contributor to population gains in recent times, accounting for roughly 37.0% of the growth, though all components including interstate and overseas migration remained positive.

AreaSearch employs ABS and Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, which were published in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For SA2 areas lacking this data, and to project trends beyond 2032, AreaSearch utilizes cohort-specific growth rates from the latest Greater Capital Region projections released by the ABS in 2023, based on 2022 figures. Based on these demographic projections, the suburb of McKail is expected to experience population growth above the median for non-metropolitan parts of Australia, with the local population projected to increase by 699 residents by 2041 according to aggregated SA2 data, representing a total gain of 15.5% over the 16 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within McKail when compared nationally

According to AreaSearch evaluations of ABS building approvals distributed from statistical area statistics, McKail averages approximately 33 approved residential properties annually. A total of 167 dwellings received approval over the last 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25), with 20 approvals recorded during the current FY-26. Given an average ratio of 1.7 new residents per completed dwelling over the last 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is closely aligned with demand, supporting stable conditions in the market. Newly built homes carry an average construction value of $392,000, which is higher than the regional benchmark, indicating a focus on premium builds.

Compared to the Rest of WA, McKail exhibits slightly elevated construction activity, tracking 43.0% higher than the regional per capita average over the 5 year period, which maintains choice for buyers while anchoring existing property values. The composition of new residential approvals consists of 87.0% detached houses and 13.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the traditional low-density profile of the neighborhood and emphasizing family-oriented housing. With roughly 121 people per approval, McKail displays the characteristics of a growing suburb.

Projections indicate that McKail will add 673 residents by 2041, based on the latest quarterly estimate from AreaSearch. At the current pace of construction, housing supply is expected to satisfy demand, maintaining favorable conditions for purchasers and potentially supporting growth that surpasses current projections.

McKail has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 23rdth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects, strategic planning, and major developments have a significant impact on neighborhood performance. AreaSearch has identified 7 projects in the vicinity that are expected to influence the area. Key examples include Clydesdale Park, the Centennial Park Urban Renewal Area, the McKail North Local Structure Plan, and the South Lockyer Structure Plan.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.3%, McKail has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

McKail has a balanced workforce distributed across professional and industrial roles, with strong representation in essential service sectors, and an unemployment rate of just 3.3% according to statistical area data aggregated by AreaSearch. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 2,187, while the local unemployment rate was 0.2% lower than the Regional WA rate of 3.5%. Participation in the labor force stands at 68.0%, which is close to the Regional WA benchmark of 65.6%. Census data showed that a low 3.2% of working residents operated from home, though this may have been influenced by past pandemic restrictions.

The primary sectors employing local residents are healthcare & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Retail trade is notably prominent, with employment density in this sector running at 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, mining plays a minor role, employing only 3.3% of the workforce compared to 11.7% across the region. The comparison between the census working population and resident population suggests this predominantly residential area offers limited local employment options.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data for the broader statistical area, the 12-month period experienced a 5.4% reduction in the labor force and a 6.9% decrease in total employment, leading to a 1.6 percentage point rise in unemployment. This pattern diverges from Regional WA, where employment contracted by 0.1%, the labor force expanded by 0.3%, and unemployment grew by 0.4 percentage points. National employment projections released in May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia provide context for future local demand. These five and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce mix to model potential employment trends. Although national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, trends vary across different industries. Applying these weighted industry trends to the local employment structure suggests employment for residents will rise by 5.9% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to financial year 2023 ATO statistics compiled by AreaSearch, tax-paying residents in McKail earn incomes comparable to national averages. The median taxpayer income is $53,065, while the average income is $66,883, compared to Regional WA figures of $59,973 and $74,392. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index increase of 10.93% since financial year 2023, estimated figures for March 2026 are approximately $58,865 for median income and $74,193 for average income. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in McKail sit in the moderate range, ranking between the 44th and 46th percentiles. The largest income group contains 40.3% of households, earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (1,745 residents), which aligns with the broader region where 31.1% fall into this bracket. Affordability pressures are significant, leaving households with 83.4% of their income after housing costs, placing the area in the 44th percentile.

McKail is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

At the time of the latest Census, the housing mix in McKail consisted of 98.2% standalone houses and 1.8% alternative dwellings like semi-detached homes or apartments, compared to 88.5% houses and 11.6% other options in Regional WA. Home ownership rates in McKail lagged the regional average, standing at 25.8%, with mortgaged properties accounting for 48.8% and rented homes making up 25.4% of dwellings. The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,622 was higher than the Regional WA average of $1,560, and the median weekly rent of $350 exceeded the regional figure of $265. Locally, mortgage costs remain below the national median of $1,863, and weekly rents are lower than the Australian benchmark of $375.

McKail features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family units constitute 77.8% of local households, featuring couples with children at 36.7%, couples without children at 27.7%, and single parents at 12.2%. Non-family households represent the remaining 22.2%, consisting of lone person households at 19.1% and group shared homes at 3.2%. The typical household size is 2.8 individuals, which is larger than the Regional WA average of 2.5.

McKail shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational data shows lower rates of university attainment in the area, with 11.7% of residents holding a tertiary degree compared to the national average of 30.4%. Among these, bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.8%, followed by graduate diplomas at 1.7% and postgraduate degrees at 1.2%. Technical and vocational credentials are more common, with 46.2% of residents aged 15+ holding practical qualifications, consisting of 11.0% with advanced diplomas and 35.2% with certificates.

A high proportion of the population is engaged in study, with 30.2% of residents enrolled in formal education. This includes primary school students at 10.6%, secondary students at 9.5%, and tertiary students at 1.7%.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport services in McKail feature 5 active transit stops served by buses. These stops accommodate 1 distinct routes, which provide a total of 55 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is moderate, with homes situated an average of 546 meters from the nearest stop. The suburb is primarily residential, and 97% of commuting residents travel by private car. Households own an average of 1.8 vehicles, which exceeds the regional standard. A minor 3.2% of residents worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-era arrangements.

Services run at an average frequency of 7 trips per day across all routes, translating to roughly 11 weekly trips per transit stop.

Health performance in McKail is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Analysis of mortality rates and chronic disease indicators by AreaSearch shows notable health issues in the community across various age demographics. The rate of private health insurance coverage is slightly above the average SA2 area, representing approximately 54% of the population (~2,328 people), compared to 56.4% across Regional WA.

Asthma and mental health issues are the most prevalent chronic conditions, each affecting 9.0 and 9.0% of the population. Meanwhile, 69.5% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 69.3% in Regional WA. Residents of working age experience above-average rates of chronic conditions. Residents aged 65 and over make up 11.7% of the population (506 people), which is lower than the Regional WA figure of 19.2%, while national health rankings are generally consistent with wider averages.

McKail ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

McKail has lower cultural diversity than typical areas, with 81.4% of residents born in Australia, 89.8% holding citizenship, and 90.2% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the primary religion, followed by 44.1% of the population. The most prominent statistical divergence is in Judaism, which is recorded at no residents, matching the regional average of none.

Regarding parental country of birth, the main ancestries identified are English at 32.8%, Australian at 30.4%, and Scottish at 6.3%. Some minor backgrounds show higher relative representation than the regional average, including Dutch ancestry at 3.3% of residents (compared to 1.5% regionally), Filipino at 3.4% (compared to 1.2%), and South Australian at 0.8% (compared to 0.6%).

McKail hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

McKail has a median age of 34, making it younger than the Regional WA median of 40 and the Australian average of 38. The 15 - 24 age bracket is well represented at 14.9% of the population, whereas the 65 - 74 age group is smaller at 7.5%. Since 2021, the cohort aged 15 to 24 grew from 13.1% to 14.9%. In contrast, children aged 5 to 14 decreased from 16.1% to 14.6%, and residents aged 45 to 54 declined from 12.4% to 11.2%. Projections for 2041 indicate shifts in the local age structure, led by a 46% increase in the 25 to 34 age group, which will grow by 292 people to reach 929 from 636. Conversely, the cohorts aged 75 to 84 and 15 to 24 are projected to shrink.