McKail

McKail lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, McKail's estimated resident population is around 4,298 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 328 people (8.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,970 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 55 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 435 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. McKail's 8.3% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's 7.9%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 37.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including interstate migration and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth for Australian non-metropolitan areas is projected. The suburb is expected to expand by 794 persons to reach a total of 5,086 by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 18.8% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within McKail when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in McKail shows approximately 27 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 138 homes were approved, with an additional 10 approved so far in FY-26. On average, each dwelling accommodates about 2.5 new residents per year over these five years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

The average construction cost value of new homes is approximately $392,000, aligning with broader regional development trends. In the current financial year, McKail has recorded around $31.3 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting robust commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of Western Australia, McKail has slightly more development, at 19.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years.

This maintains reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. New development in McKail consists predominantly of detached dwellings (88.0%) and a smaller proportion of townhouses or apartments (12.0%), preserving the area's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 182 people per dwelling approval, McKail exhibits characteristics of a growth area. The latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate projects McKail to add approximately 806 residents by 2041. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

McKail has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 4thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects that could impact this region. Notable ones are Clydesdale Park, Centennial Park Urban Renewal Area, McKail North Local Structure Plan, and South Lockyer Structure Plan. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

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The labour market strength in McKail positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

McKail's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs with significant representation in essential services. The unemployment rate was 1.4% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 0.7% over the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation.

In McKail, 2,317 residents were employed in June 2025, with an unemployment rate of 1.7%, below Rest of WA's 3.2%. Workforce participation was high at 66.9% compared to Rest of WA's 59.4%. Key employment sectors included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction, with retail trade notably concentrated at 1.6 times the regional average. Mining had limited presence at 3.3%, compared to the regional average of 11.7%.

The area offered limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in June 2025, employment increased by 0.7% while labour force decreased by 1.6%, reducing the unemployment rate by 2.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of WA saw employment rise by 1.1%, labour force grow by 0.5%, and unemployment fall by 0.6 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to McKail's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

McKail's median income among taxpayers was $53,065 in financial year 2022, with an average income of $66,883. These figures compare to the Rest of WA's median and average incomes of $57,323 and $71,163 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on a 14.2% Wage Price Index growth suggest McKail's median income would be approximately $60,600 and the average income around $76,380. Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in McKail rank modestly, between the 44th and 46th percentiles. The largest income bracket comprises 40.3% of residents earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (1,732 residents), which is consistent with broader trends across the broader area showing 31.1% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in McKail, with only 83.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 44th percentile.

McKail is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The latest Census evaluation of McKail's dwelling structure showed 98.2% houses and 1.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro WA's 92.1% houses and 8.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in McKail was at 25.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (48.8%) or rented (25.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in McKail was $1,622, higher than Non-Metro WA's average of $1,490. The median weekly rent figure for McKail was recorded at $350, compared to Non-Metro WA's $280. Nationally, McKail's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

McKail features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.8% of all households, including 36.7% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.2%, with lone person households at 19.1% and group households comprising 3.2%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Rest of WA average of 2.4.

McKail shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 11.7%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.7%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 46.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (35.2%). Educational participation is high at 30.2%, with 10.6% in primary education, 9.5% in secondary education, and 1.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Schools appear to be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring residents to access them in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates five operational public transport stops in McKail, offering a variety of bus services. These stops are served by one route collectively facilitating 55 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents generally situated 546 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages seven trips daily across all routes, equating to about eleven weekly trips per individual stop.

McKail's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

McKail's health metrics are close to national benchmarks, with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 54% (2,310 people), compared to 49.5% in the rest of WA.

Asthma and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions, impacting 9.0% and 9.0% of residents respectively. Approximately 69.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 64.7% in the rest of WA. The area has 10.7% (459 people) of residents aged 65 and over, which is lower than the 21.0% in the rest of WA. This is broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

McKail ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

McKail's population shows low cultural diversity, with 81.4% born in Australia, 89.8% being citizens, and 90.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 44.1%. Notably, Judaism is underrepresented compared to Rest of WA, with 0.0% in McKail versus 0.1%.

The top ancestry groups are English (32.8%), Australian (30.4%), and Scottish (6.3%). Some ethnicities have notable differences: Dutch at 3.3% (versus regional 2.3%), Filipino at 3.4% (versus regional 1.2%), and South African at 0.8% (versus regional 0.6%).

McKail hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

McKail's median age is 34, which is lower than the Rest of WA figure of 40 and Australia's median age of 38. The age group of 15-24 represents a strong 15.0% in McKail compared to Rest of WA, while those aged 65-74 make up only 6.8%. Between 2021 and the present day, the percentage of people aged 15-24 has increased from 13.1% to 15.0%, and those aged 25-34 have risen from 13.8% to 14.9%. Conversely, the age group of 5-14 has decreased from 16.1% to 14.0%. By the year 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in McKail's age structure. Notably, the 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 55%, adding 353 people and reaching a total of 994 from its current figure of 640. Meanwhile, both the 75-84 and 15-24 age groups are projected to decrease in number.