McKail

McKail lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, McKail's population is estimated at around 4,299 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 329 people (8.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,970 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,194 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 83 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 435 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, McKail has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 1.4% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 37.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is utilising the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth of Australian non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the suburb expected to expand by 795 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 18.9% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within McKail when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows McKail has seen approximately 27 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 138 homes were approved, with an additional 10 approved so far in FY-26.

Each dwelling has contributed an average of 2.5 new residents per year over these five years. The average construction cost value of new homes is $392,000, which is somewhat higher than regional norms, indicating quality-focused development. Compared to the rest of WA, McKail has seen slightly more development, with 19.0% above the regional average per person over this period.

This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. The new building activity consists of 88.0% detached houses and 12.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes. With around 158 people per approval, McKail reflects a developing area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, McKail is expected to grow by approximately 812 residents through to 2041. Existing development levels appear aligned with future requirements, suggesting stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

McKail has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely to affect this region. Notable initiatives include Clydesdale Park, Centennial Park Urban Renewal Area, McKail North Local Structure Plan, and South Lockyer Structure Plan. The following list highlights those expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in McKail demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

McKail has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented. The unemployment rate was 2.0% as of September 2025, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

In this month, 2,269 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.2% lower than Rest of WA's rate of 3.3%. Workforce participation stood at 71.8%, close to Rest of WA's 67.2%. Census responses indicated that only 3.2% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment was concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Retail trade had particularly high employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. Mining's presence was limited with 3.3% employment compared to 11.7% regionally. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as shown by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, labour force decreased by 4.4%, employment declined by 3.4%, and unemployment fell by 1.0 percentage points. This contrasted with Rest of WA where employment rose by 1.4%, the labour force grew by 1.2%, and unemployment fell by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offered insights into potential future demand within McKail. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, showed national employment expanding by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differed significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to McKail's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of McKail's median income among taxpayers was $53,065 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $66,883 during the same period. These figures compare to national averages for Rest of WA of $59,973 and $74,392 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on a 9.62% increase since financial year 2023 suggest median income will be approximately $58,170 and average income will be around $73,317. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in McKail rank modestly, between the 44th and 46th percentiles. The largest income bracket comprises 40.3% of residents earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (1,732 residents), which is consistent with broader trends across the broader area showing 31.1% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in McKail, with only 83.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 44th percentile.

McKail is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in McKail, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.2% houses and 1.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro WA had 88.5% houses and 11.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in McKail was at 25.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (48.8%) or rented (25.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in McKail was $1,622, higher than Non-Metro WA's average of $1,560. Weekly rent figures were recorded at $350 in McKail, compared to Non-Metro WA's $265. Nationally, McKail's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

McKail features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.8 percent of all households, including 36.7 percent couples with children, 27.7 percent couples without children, and 12.2 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.2 percent, with lone person households at 19.1 percent and group households comprising 3.2 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Rest of WA average of 2.5.

McKail shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 11.7%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.7%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.2%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 46.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (35.2%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 9.5% in secondary education, and 1.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

McKail has five active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by one route in total, offering 55 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents located an average of 546 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to McKail's primarily residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 97%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.8, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 3.2% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are seven trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately eleven weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in McKail is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

McKail faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 54%, impacting around 2,310 people, which is slightly higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Rest of WA at 56.4%. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 9.0% and 9.0% of residents respectively. Around 69.5% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 69.3% across Rest of WA. Working-age residents show a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions compared to national rankings. The area has 10.3% of residents aged 65 and over (442 people), which is lower than the 19.2% in Rest of WA.

McKail ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

McKail's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 81.4% of its population born in Australia, 89.8% being citizens, and 90.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in McKail, comprising 44.1% of the population. There was no apparent Judaism population in McKail, mirroring the 0.0% across Rest of WA.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.8%), Australian (30.4%), and Scottish (6.3%). Notably, Dutch (3.3%) and Filipino (3.4%) populations were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. South African population was also slightly higher at 0.8%.

McKail hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

McKail's median age is 33 years, which is considerably lower than the Rest of WA average of 40 and substantially under the Australian median of 38. Compared to Rest of WA, McKail has a higher concentration of residents aged 15-24 (15.1%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (6.7%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the age group of 15 to 24 years has grown from 13.1% to 15.1% of McKail's population, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 13.8% to 15.4%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group declined from 16.1% to 13.9%, and the 75 to 84 age group dropped from 4.1% to 2.8%. Demographic modeling suggests that McKail's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 25 to 34 cohort (49%), adding 326 residents to reach a total of 989. In contrast, both the 85+ and 75 to 84 age groups are projected to see reduced numbers by that year.