McKail

McKail lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, McKail's population is estimated at around 4269 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 299 people (7.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3970 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4194, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 55 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 432 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Over the past decade, McKail has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.4%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 37% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including interstate migration and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas post-2032, AreaSearch utilises the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth of Australian non-metropolitan areas is projected for McKail, with the area expected to expand by 789 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 19.4% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within McKail when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows McKail has seen around 27 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 138 homes were approved, with an additional 10 approved so far in FY-26.

This indicates healthy demand, supporting property values, with new homes averaging $392,000 in construction cost value, higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development. Compared to the Rest of WA, McKail has slightly more development, at 19.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. New building activity consists of 88.0% detached houses and 12.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes.

With around 158 people per approval, McKail reflects a developing area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, McKail is expected to grow by approximately 830 residents through to 2041. Existing development levels appear aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

McKail has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 27thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects that may impact this region. Notable ones include Clydesdale Park, Centennial Park Urban Renewal Area, McKail North Local Structure Plan, and South Lockyer Structure Plan. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

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Employment conditions in McKail demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

McKail's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate stands at 2.0%, as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of September 2025, 2,273 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate 1.3% lower than the Rest of WA's rate of 3.3%. The workforce participation rate is higher than the regional average at 66.9%, compared to Rest of WA's 59.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Retail trade stands out with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average.

Mining has limited presence in McKail, with only 3.3% of residents employed in this sector compared to the regional average of 11.7%. The area's predominantly residential nature suggests limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force decreased by 4.3% while employment declined by 3.3%, leading to a 1.0 percentage point fall in unemployment. In contrast, Rest of WA saw employment rise by 1.4%, labour force grow by 1.2%, and unemployment fall by 0.2 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to McKail's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though these are simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of McKail's income level aligns with national averages based on latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in McKail is $53,065 and the average income stands at $66,883, compared to Rest of WA's figures of $59,973 and $74,392 respectively. According to Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for McKail would be approximately $58,170 (median) and $73,317 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes all rank modestly in McKail, between the 44th and 46th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that the largest segment comprises 40.3% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,720 residents), consistent with broader trends across the broader area showing 31.1% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in McKail, with only 83.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 44th percentile.

McKail is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

McKail's dwelling structure as of the latest Census was 98.2% houses and 1.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro WA's 92.1% houses and 8.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in McKail stood at 25.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.8% and rented ones at 25.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,622, higher than Non-Metro WA's average of $1,490. Median weekly rent in McKail was $350, compared to Non-Metro WA's $280. Nationally, McKail's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,622 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were less at $350 compared to the national figure of $375.

McKail features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.8% of all households, including 36.7% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.2%, with lone person households at 19.1% and group households comprising 3.2%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Rest of WA average of 2.4.

McKail shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 11.7%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.7%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 46.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (35.2%). Educational participation is high at 30.2%, comprising primary education (10.6%), secondary education (9.5%), and tertiary education (1.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 9.5% in secondary education, and 1.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates five active public transport stops in McKail, all serving buses. These stops are covered by one route collectively offering 55 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated moderate, with residents typically located 546 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages seven trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately eleven weekly trips per individual stop.

McKail's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

McKail's health metrics are close to national benchmarks, with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 54% (2,294 people), leading that of the average SA2 area but similar to Rest of WA at 50.0%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 9.0% and 9.0% of residents respectively. 69.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 64.7% across Rest of WA. There are 10.7% (456 people) of residents aged 65 and over, which is lower than the 21.0% in Rest of WA. This indicates a health profile broadly in line with the general population.

McKail ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

McKail's population was found to be below average in cultural diversity, with 81.4% born in Australia, 89.8% being citizens, and 90.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 44.1% of McKail's population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented compared to Rest of WA, with 0.0% in McKail versus 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.8%), Australian (30.4%), and Scottish (6.3%). Dutch (3.3%) and Filipino (3.4%) were notably overrepresented compared to regional averages of 2.3% and 1.2%, respectively. South African representation was also higher at 0.8%.

McKail hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

McKail's median age is 34, which is lower than the Rest of WA figure of 40 and Australia's median age of 38. The population aged 15-24 in McKail stands at 15.0%, higher than the Rest of WA, while those aged 65-74 make up 6.8%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 13.1% to 15.0%, and the 25-34 cohort has increased from 13.8% to 14.9%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 16.1% to 14.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in McKail's age structure. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 56%, reaching 992 people from the current 636. Meanwhile, both the 15-24 and 75-84 age groups are expected to see a decrease in numbers.