Winthrop

An assessment of population growth drivers in Winthrop reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on evaluation of ABS demographic releases for the wider region, alongside new address points verified by AreaSearch since the Census, the suburb of Winthrop has an estimated population of approximately 6,641 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 621 residents (10.3%) from the 2021 Census, which documented a population of 6,020 individuals. This shift is calculated from a resident population of 6,641, determined by AreaSearch after examining the latest ABS ERP release (June 2025) plus an additional 4 verified new addresses since the Census. Such a population size results in a density ratio of 1,908 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average across national locations evaluated by AreaSearch. The 10.3% growth in the suburb of Winthrop since the 2021 census outpaced the national average (9.3%), positioning it as a regional growth leader. Population gains for the locality were mainly fueled by overseas migration, which made up approximately 85.0% of the total growth during recent times.

AreaSearch incorporates ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 region, published in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 regions lacking this coverage, and to calculate growth across all places in the years after 2032, AreaSearch applies the age cohort growth rates from the latest ABS Greater Capital Region projections (published in 2023, utilizing 2022 data). Factoring in the anticipated demographic transitions, population growth exceeding the national median is expected, with the area projected to expand by 1,205 persons to 2041 based on combined SA2-level forecasts, representing an overall increase of 18.1% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Winthrop according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of building approvals from the ABS, mapped from statistical area statistics, Winthrop averages approximately 5 dwelling approvals annually, with an estimated 27 residences approved over the last 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 3 thus far in FY-26. With an average of 18.1 new residents per year for each home constructed over the last 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand significantly outstrips new supply, a trend that typically drives price growth and intensifies buyer competition, while new builds are established at an average value of $626,000, indicating that builders are prioritizing the premium market with upscale projects.

Relative to Greater Perth, Winthrop displays vastly lower construction activity (86.0% below the regional average per capita). This undersupply of new housing commonly reinforces demand and values for established properties. This rate is also below the national average, indicating a mature locality and suggesting potential planning limitations. Furthermore, new building activity has consisted entirely of standalone houses, maintaining the suburban character of the area with a focus on detached homes that appeal to buyers looking for space. The area contains approximately 1316 people for each dwelling approval, reflecting a well-developed market.

Moving forward, Winthrop is projected to add 1,205 residents by 2041 (starting from the most recent AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If local building rates persist, residential supply might fail to match population growth, potentially heightening competition among home buyers and supporting upward pressure on prices.

Winthrop has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 37thth percentile nationally

Few elements impact local performance as significantly as updates to local infrastructure, major developments, and zoning strategies. In total, AreaSearch has tracked 4 key projects that are expected to influence the locality. Important projects include the New Women and Babies Hospital (Fiona Stanley Hospital Precinct), Orthonova Orthopaedic Hospital, New Women and Babies Hospital, and the Westfield Booragoon Redevelopment, with the list below highlighting those of greatest significance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market strength in Winthrop positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Winthrop features a highly qualified labor force with strong representation in professional services and an unemployment rate of just 1.5%, according to AreaSearch calculations of regional statistical data. As of March 2026, there are 3,603 employed residents, and the unemployment rate is 2.7% below the Greater Perth rate of 4.2%, while labor force participation is notably lower (64.7% relative to Greater Perth's 70.2%). Census responses indicate that a modest 12.8% of residents worked from home, though the influence of COVID-19 lockdowns should be taken into account.

Employment for residents is heavily weighted toward health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical sectors. The locality displays a prominent concentration in professional & technical services, with a workforce share that is 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, construction has a minor footprint at 6.2% employment compared to 9.3% across the region. The largely residential community appears to provide few local employment options, as demonstrated by the comparison of the Census working population against the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS statistics, aggregated from regional data, the labor force contracted by 0.9% and employment shrank by 1.1% during the year ending March 2026, leading to a 0.2 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate. This stands in contrast to Greater Perth, where employment rose by 2.0%, the labor force expanded by 2.5%, and unemployment ticked up by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia dated May-25 offer additional perspective on potential future demand in Winthrop. These forecasts, spanning five and ten-year horizons, have been aligned with the local employment structure to project growth trends. Although national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, expansion rates vary widely across different industries. Applying these sector-specific forecasts to the local employment distribution suggests that employment in Winthrop should grow by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years (note that this is a basic weighted extrapolation for demonstration purposes and does not account for local population forecasts).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's compilation of the most recent postcode level ATO figures published for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in the suburb of Winthrop recorded a median income of $47,501 and an average income of $69,910. This is slightly above the national average and compares to $60,748 and $80,248 across Greater Perth, respectively. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% since the 2023 financial year, current projections would be approximately $52,693 (median) and $77,551 (average) as of March 2026. Census findings show household incomes are highly ranked at the 84th percentile ($2,324 weekly), whereas personal income is positioned lower at the 41st percentile. The statistics show that the weekly earnings bracket of $4000+ contains 26.5% of the local population (1,759 individuals), differing from the broader metropolitan area where 32.0% of people fall in the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Top earners make up a significant portion of the community, with 40.0% earning more than $3,000 weekly, which points to substantial purchasing power. After paying for housing, residents keep 89.6% of their income, indicating healthy discretionary funds, and the area is positioned in the 9th decile for the SEIFA income index.

Winthrop is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The mix of housing in Winthrop at the time of the latest Census consisted of 99.1% standalone houses and 0.9% alternative housing types (including semi-detached properties, apartments, and other dwellings), compared to the Perth metropolitan average of 77.8% houses and 22.1% alternative dwellings. The level of outright home ownership in Winthrop was significantly higher than the Perth metropolitan average, standing at 55.1%, with the remaining properties being purchased with a mortgage (33.9%) or occupied by tenants (11.0%). The median monthly mortgage payment in the locality was substantially higher than the Perth metropolitan average at $2,317, while the median weekly rent was recorded at $545, compared to $1,907 and $350 for Greater Perth. On a national level, Winthrop's mortgage payments are notably higher than the Australian median of $1,863, and weekly rents are well above the national median of $375.

Winthrop features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households represent the vast majority at 89.1% of all local households, consisting of 46.6% couples with children, 32.8% couples without children, and 8.5% single parents. Non-family households account for the remaining 10.9%, with single-person households at 9.7% and group housing making up 1.5%. The median household size of 3.0 individuals exceeds the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Educational achievement in Winthrop places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Educational achievements in Winthrop are significantly higher than broader reference levels, with 46.2% of residents aged 15+ holding a university degree compared to 27.9% in WA and 28.6% in the SA4 region. This notable educational strength positions the locality well for knowledge-intensive sectors. Bachelor degrees represent the largest share at 31.6%, followed by postgraduate degrees (10.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.9%). Vocational training makes up 23.1% of qualifications for those aged 15 and older, consisting of advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (11.9%).

Enrollment in education is remarkably high, with 29.1% of local residents currently participating in formal study. This comprises 8.9% attending high schools, 8.8% in primary schools, and 7.2% enrolled in higher education programs.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transit analysis indicates there are 49 active transit stops in Winthrop, consisting of a combination of bus options. These stops are connected to 10 distinct routes, which together provide 1,977 weekly passenger journeys. Transit access is classified as good, with residents living an average of 206 meters from the nearest stop. Due to the area's residential nature, the majority of working residents travel out of the area, and cars remain the primary method of transport at 77%, with 14% using trains and 6% using buses. The average household has 2.0 vehicles, which is above the regional average. A minor 12.8% of residents work from home (based on the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 rules).

Transit service frequency averages 282 journeys per day across all routes, which corresponds to approximately 40 weekly journeys for each individual transit stop.

Winthrop's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health metric analysis shows exceptional results throughout Winthrop, based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality data and chronic illness rates, revealing a low incidence of widespread health issues across all age brackets, and the rate of private health insurance coverage is high at approximately 55% of the population (~3,649 people). This compares to 59.0% for Greater Perth.

The most prevalent medical issues in the locality were arthritis and asthma, affecting 6.2 and 5.6% of residents, respectively, while 75.6% of the population reported no medical conditions at all, compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. The locality has 25.5% of its population aged 65 and over (1,693 people), which is higher than the Greater Perth proportion of 16.1%. Health profiles among older residents are notably positive, with national comparisons generally aligning with the broader population.

Winthrop is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Winthrop registers a high level of cultural diversity, with 34.0% of the population speaking a non-English language at home and 47.9% born outside Australia. The leading religious affiliation in Winthrop is Christianity, representing 56.1% of residents. The most notable statistical variance is in Buddhism, which accounts for 5.7% of the population, compared to 2.7% across Greater Perth.

Regarding ancestral backgrounds (parental country of birth), the three most common heritages in Winthrop are Chinese, representing 22.3% of the community, which is significantly higher than the regional level of 4.0%, English, representing 19.8% of the community, which is lower than the regional level of 28.0%, and Australian, representing 16.2% of the community, which is lower than the regional level of 21.2%. There are also distinct variations in other backgrounds: South Australian ancestry accounts for 1.2% in Winthrop (compared to 1.0% regionally), Korean accounts for 0.8% (compared to 0.3% regionally), and Croatian accounts for 0.9% (compared to 0.8% regionally).

Winthrop hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

With a median age of 44, Winthrop is older than the Greater Perth average of 37 and is older than the national median of 38. The 65 - 74 age bracket is highly represented at 14.2% relative to Greater Perth, while the 25 - 34 bracket is less common at 9.1%. Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age bracket expanded from 6.0% to 8.3% of the population, and the 15 to 24 group grew from 13.3% to 15.0%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 group contracted from 14.6% to 11.9%. Demographic forecasts suggest the age profile of Winthrop will change notably by 2041. Leading this change, the 75 to 84 group is projected to increase by 83% (457 people), growing from 551 to 1,009. The trend of an aging population is clear, with individuals aged 65 and over representing 62% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 and 35 to 44 age cohorts are projected to experience declines in population.