Kardinya

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kardinya reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Kardinya's population is estimated at around 10,475 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,338 people (14.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,137 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 10,405, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 139 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,391 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Kardinya's 14.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (8.9%), along with the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 95.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is utilising the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections, released in 2023 based on 2022 data. As we examine future population trends, an above median population growth of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is projected for Kardinya, with the suburb expected to increase by 1,333 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 10.2% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Kardinya when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Kardinya shows an average of around 100 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY21 and FY25, approximately 501 homes were approved, with a further 12 approved so far in FY26. This results in about 1.7 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past five financial years, indicating balanced supply and demand, and stable market conditions. However, recent figures show an acceleration to 13.4 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting increasing demand and tightening supply.

Development projects average $401,000 in construction value, aligning with broader regional development trends. This year has seen $333.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Perth, Kardinya has 66.0% more building activity per person, offering buyers greater choice, although construction activity has eased recently. New development consists primarily of standalone homes (94.0%) and townhouses or apartments (6.0%), preserving the area's suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

With around 334 people per approval, Kardinya reflects a transitioning market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is forecasted to gain 1,064 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Kardinya has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Five infrastructure projects may significantly influence the local area's performance. AreaSearch identified these five projects, which are expected to impact the region. Major initiatives include Kardinya Rise Estate, North Lake Road - Winterfold Road Intersection Upgrade, Kardinya Park Shopping Centre Redevelopment, and Kardinya District Centre Activity Centre Plan. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

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The exceptional employment performance in Kardinya places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Kardinya has a well-educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 1.3% as of June 2025, lower than Greater Perth's 3.9%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.8%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Perth's 65.2%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. Education & training has a particularly strong presence, with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level.

Conversely, mining shows lower representation at 4.9% compared to the regional average of 7.0%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.8%, while labour force increased by 5.9%, causing unemployment to rise slightly to 1.4%. In contrast, Greater Perth recorded employment growth of 3.7% with a similar increase in labour force and unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-2022 suggest that Kardinya's employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, aligning with national projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Kardinya's median income among taxpayers is $59,988. The average income in Kardinya for the same period is $78,498. Nationally, these figures are extremely high. Compared to Greater Perth, Kardinya's median is higher by $1,608 and the average is $478 more. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 14.2% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Kardinya would be approximately $68,506 (median) and $89,645 (average) as of September 2025. Census data indicates household, family and personal incomes in Kardinya are around the 56th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 30.2% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, with a total of 3,163 residents in this income bracket. This is similar to patterns seen at regional levels where 32.0% of residents fall within the same income range. After housing costs, Kardinya residents retain 87.4% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile nationally.

Kardinya is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kardinya's dwelling structure in its latest Census comprised 86.3% houses and 13.7% other dwellings. In comparison, Perth metro had 76.5% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kardinya was 44.1%, with the rest mortgaged at 35.1% or rented at 20.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,003, below Perth metro's $2,200. Median weekly rent was $390, compared to Perth metro's $400. Nationally, Kardinya's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Kardinya features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 74.6% of all households, consisting of 32.2% couples with children, 31.2% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.4%, with lone person households at 20.3% and group households comprising 4.9%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which matches the Greater Perth average.

The educational profile of Kardinya exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 35.5% among residents aged 15+, exceeding the Western Australia average of 27.9%. This figure also surpasses that of the SA4 region at 28.6%, indicating a strong emphasis on higher education in the community. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 23.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%).

Vocational credentials are held by 30.5% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.1% and certificates at 19.4%. Educational participation is high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.6% in tertiary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 6.3% pursuing primary education. Kardinya Primary School and North Lake Senior Campus serve a total of 740 students in the area, which demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 1052. Educational provision is conventional, split between one primary and one secondary institution. However, local school capacity is limited at 7.1 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 19.6, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The transport analysis shows that there are 47 active transport stops in Kardinya. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 13 individual routes operating. Together, these routes provide 2,174 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility to public transport is rated as excellent, with residents on average located 191 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 310 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 46 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Kardinya is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Kardinya shows superior health outcomes for both young and elderly populations, with low prevalence of common conditions. Approximately 58% of its total population of 6,113 have private health cover, compared to 65.2% across Greater Perth.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.5%) and mental health issues (7.0%). About 70.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.5% in Greater Perth. Around 21.8%, or 2,283 people, are aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors exceed those of the general population.

Kardinya is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kardinya's cultural diversity is notable, with 26.3% speaking a language other than English at home and 38.2% born overseas. Christianity is the dominant religion in Kardinya, comprising 52.7%. Buddhism is slightly overrepresented compared to Greater Perth, at 3.1% versus 2.9%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (24.3%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (10.8%). Some ethnic groups have notable divergences: Croatian is overrepresented at 1.9%, Italian at 7.7%, and South African at 1.0%.

Kardinya hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Kardinya's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Perth's average of 37 and slightly above Australia's median of 38. Comparing with Greater Perth, Kardinya has a notably higher proportion of the 65-74 age group (12.0%) and a lower proportion of 5-14 year-olds (9.3%). Post-2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group grew from 13.0% to 14.9%, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 6.4% to 7.6%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort declined from 15.0% to 12.1%. By 2041, Kardinya's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 75 to 84 cohort is expected to grow by 52%, adding 410 residents to reach 1,207. Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 65% of the population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 55 to 64 cohorts.