Thornlie

Thornlie is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Thornlie's population is estimated at around 25,709 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 2,044 people (8.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 23,665 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 25,696 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 66 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,259 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Thornlie's 8.6% growth since census positions it within 1.1 percentage points of the national average (9.7%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is utilising the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Looking at population projections moving forward, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is expected, with the Thornlie statistical area (Lv2) expected to grow by 1,311 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 5.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Thornlie recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Thornlie averaged approximately 31 new dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between FY21 and FY25, around 159 homes were approved, with an additional 15 approved in FY26 so far. This results in about 9.7 new residents arriving per year for each dwelling constructed over the past five financial years.

The demand significantly exceeds new supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $254,000. In FY26, $24.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Perth, Thornlie has significantly less development activity, with 72.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity usually strengthens demand and prices for existing properties.

When compared nationally, Thornlie's development activity is also lower, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. The area shows a concentration of detached dwellings at 93.0%, sustaining its suburban identity with family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 1020 people per approval, Thornlie indicates a mature, established area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Thornlie is expected to grow by approximately 1,298 residents through to 2041, with building activity keeping pace with growth projections despite potential heightened competition as the population grows.

Thornlie has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Twenty projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area, significantly influencing its performance. Key projects include Nicholson Road, Garden Street and Yale Road Grade Separation, Tulloch Way Residential Development, Tulloch Way, Canning Vale Development, and West Canning Vale Outline Development Plan. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Thornlie has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Thornlie has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 5.9% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.7% over the past year.

This is based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. There are currently 13,084 residents employed in Thornlie, while its unemployment rate stands at 1.9%, which is higher than Greater Perth's rate of 4.0%. Workforce participation is lower compared to the regional average (61.8% vs. 65.2%).

The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Notably, transport, postal & warehousing has a high concentration with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services have limited presence with only 5.1% of employment compared to the regional average of 8.2%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Over the year to September 2025, employment in Thornlie increased by 1.7%, while labour force grew by 2.1%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Perth experienced higher employment growth of 2.9% and a marginal rise in unemployment. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows WA employment contracted by 0.27%, with the state unemployment rate at 4.6%. Nationally, employment grew by 0.14%, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicate a projected growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years for the nation as a whole. Applying these projections to Thornlie's current employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Thornlie's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2023 was $50,988, with an average income of $59,002. These figures are below Greater Perth's median and average incomes of $60,748 and $80,248 respectively. By September 2025, estimated median and average incomes in Thornlie would be approximately $55,893 and $64,678 based on a 9.62% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Thornlie rank modestly, between the 25th and 39th percentiles. The predominant income cohort spans 34.6% of locals (8,895 people) earning between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to the surrounding region where 32.0% fall within this range. After housing expenses, 85.0% of income remains for other expenses in Thornlie.

Thornlie is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Thornlie's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.1% houses and 8.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Perth metro's 88.9% houses and 11.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thornlie was recorded at 34.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.9% and rented ones at 21.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,625, while the median weekly rent figure was $330. Nationally, Thornlie's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Thornlie has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.2% of all households, including 35.4% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for 23.8%, with lone person households at 21.0% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.8.

Thornlie shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Thornlie Trail residents aged 15 and above have educational qualifications that differ from Australian averages. Specifically, 21.3% hold university degrees compared to Australia's 30.4%. This indicates potential for educational advancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%).

Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 36.2% of residents holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (25.3%). Educational participation is high, with 29.8% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.2% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thornlie has 132 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 17 individual routes, collectively providing 4,139 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 193 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 591 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 31 weekly trips per stop.

Thornlie's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Thornlie residents show relatively positive health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 51% (~13,016 people), slightly below the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.3%) and mental health issues (7.1%). About 70.2% report no medical ailments, compared to 73.3% in Greater Perth. Thornlie has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 18.6% (~4,781 people), versus 14.7% in Greater Perth. Senior health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

Thornlie is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thornlie has a high level of cultural diversity, with 32.2% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 43.5% born overseas. Christianity is the dominant religion in Thornlie, comprising 42.1% of the population. Islam is overrepresented in Thornlie compared to Greater Perth, making up 12.1% versus 11.8%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (24.9%), Australian (18.8%), and Other (17.3%). Some ethnic groups have notable differences in representation: Maori is overrepresented at 1.2% compared to the regional average of 1.0%, South African is slightly underrepresented at 0.7% versus 0.8%, and Korean is overrepresented at 0.6% compared to 0.5%.

Thornlie's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Thornlie as of 2021 was 38 years, which is close to Greater Perth's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Perth, Thornlie had a higher percentage of residents aged 65-74 (10.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.3%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, the proportion of Thornlie's population aged 75 to 84 increased from 5.2% to 6.3%, while the percentage of those aged 55 to 64 decreased from 11.9% to 11.2%. By 2041, it is projected that Thornlie's age composition will shift notably. The population aged 75 to 84 is expected to grow by 67%, reaching 2,700 people from the current figure of 1,619. This growth will be led by those aged 65 and above, who are projected to comprise 77% of Thornlie's population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the age groups 0 to 4 and 5 to 14.